Morning Report: Amazon sends stocks lower

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2659 -30
Eurostoxx index 348.9 -5
Oil (WTI) 66.45 -0.88
10 year government bond yield 3.08%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.93%

 

Stocks are lower again this morning as overseas markets remain under pressure. Bonds and MBS are up, with the 10 year trading below 3.1%.

 

Initial Jobless Claims ticked up slightly to 215,000 last week. The labor market remains strong and employers are hanging on to their employees.

 

Durable Goods orders rose 0.8% last month (a strong reading) however that was driven largely by aircraft orders which can be lumpy. Ex-transportation they rose 0.1%. Capital Goods orders (a proxy for capital investment / business expansion) were down 0.1%.

 

Retail inventories rose 0.1% while wholesale inventories rose 0.3%. We will get a read on the back-to-school shopping season when the retailers begin reporting earnings next month. Note Amazon reported last night and their earnings beat expectations, but their guidance (and revenues) was terrible. The stock is down about 9% pre-open. Part of the miss in guidance is due to the decision Amazon made to raise warehouse worker wages, but the revenue guidance is something to worry about.

 

Two of the other sled-dogs in the FAANG index are down this morning – Google and Netflix. While it is probably too early to start reaching for defensives like PG or MO, the leaders are hitting a rough patch.

 

Pending home sales rose 0.5% in September, according to NAR. Don’t get too excited; they were down 1% YOY, but these days any positive reading in the housing sector is a win.

23 Responses

  1. GDP in at 3.5%

    Thanks Obama!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Left econ Twitter is sniffing about the drop in business fixed investment… See?! Tax cuts don’t work!!!!

      Like

      • What about tax cuts should make all businesses make fixed investments at a steady state (or steady state of growth)?

        Like

        • lowering tax rates increases the after-tax cash flows of investments. Some investments that didn’t cover their cost of capital at a 39% tax rate might make sense at a 20% rate.

          Liked by 1 person

        • But that wouldn’t continue to propel investment indefinitely? It seems the expectation is unrealistic.

          Like

        • Tax rates will affect marginal investment decisions. The bigger policy lever is interest rates, where lower rates make a lot of lousy investments look sensible. That is where you get bubbles..

          Like

  2. “Federal authorities made an arrest on Friday in connection with the nationwide bombing campaign against outspoken critics of President Trump, a significant breakthrough in a case that has gripped the country in the days leading up to the midterm elections.

    A law enforcement official identified the suspect as Cesar Sayoc, 56, of Aventura, Fla. The official said Mr. Sayoc had a criminal history and ties to the New York area.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/nyregion/cnn-cory-booker-pipe-bombs-sent.html

    Hmm. Cesar Sayoc sounds disturbingly similar to Keyser Söze.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Love this headline.

    Like

  4. WaPo comes out as pro-Hitler, embracing its progressivism fully.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ariarmstrong/status/1056029384019079168

    Like

  5. Like

    • That strikes me as an anti-Semitic sentiment. But I think what it really is is setting up the argument for how Trump is anti-Semitic and his recognizing Jurasalem as the capital of Israel is irrelevant and counts for nothing in their assertion that Trump hates Jews and is directly responsible for latest shooting.

      Like

    • Anti-semitism was created in November 2016

      Liked by 1 person

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