Morning Report: Homeownership rate ticks up 7/30/18

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P futures 2817.75 0
Eurostoxx index 391.62 -0.46
Oil (WTI) 69.98 1.29
10 Year Government Bond Yield 2.98%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage 4.58%

Stocks are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

Global bonds are under pressure this morning on fears that the Bank of Japan may make some changes to its monetary policy. While these sorts of things don’t impact the US directly, global sovereign bonds tend to trade as a group and US yields will be influenced by them.

We have a lot of important numbers this week, with personal incomes / personal spending on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday. We also have the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. No changes in policy are expected, however the language of the statement will be in focus as always.

Earnings season continues, with announcements from Freddie Mac, Annaly, Pennymac, and MFA.

FHFA Director Mel Watt was accused of sexual harassment. His term expires at the end of the year, but he will probably be shown the door regardless.

The homeownership rate increased to 64.4% from 64.3% in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau. This is a 4 year high. Interesting, the geographic dispersion is quite large, ranging from 59.7% in the West to 68.3% in the Midwest. Affordability matters, but that is a big divergence. We also saw a marked increase in younger homeowners, with the under-35 age cohort increasing from 35.3% to 36.5%. Rental vacancy rates fell from 7% to 6.8% while homeowner vacancy rates were flat at 1.5%. The overall homeownership rate is below the long term average, however the increase that started in 1994 and ended with the top of the housing bubble was probably artificial.

Pending home sales rose 0.9% in June, according to NAR. While this is a nice uptick from May, contract signings are still down 2.5% on a YOY basis. It looks like we are seeing an uptick in inventory in some of the MSAs with the biggest inventory issues: Seattle, San Jose, and Portland. With the lion’s share of 2018 in the books already, NAR is projecting a decline in existing home sales for 2018 of 1% and an increase in the median home price of 5%.

12 Responses

    • “The report defines binge drinking as having at least four or five drinks on one occasion.”

      That bar is too low. What person just has one or two?

      At least make it in excess of a full six pack to count as binge drinking.


      • jnc:

        “The report defines binge drinking as having at least four or five drinks on one occasion.”

        Is it still “binge” drinking if I have at least four or five drinks on every occasion?

        Liked by 1 person

  1. Honestly, I’d like to meet a Christo-Fascist.

    There have been several posts today about the cristo-facists ongoing drive to subjugate the American people to a rigid orthodox,  evangelical theocratic form of government.

    Can anyone name a real live, honest to God Christo-Fascist? I truly want to read what they advocate and believe.


    • It’s a fantasy. It fictional “other tribe” stuff, sometimes taking the behaviors of crazy outliers and tying to extrapolate them to all the members of that Scary Other Tribe. And the examples you could cite are basically crazy people, total outliers, mostly expressing their own mental problems. They are not members of some organized Christian orthodoxy.

      But they see those outliers and the larger group of people who think abortion is immoral as identical.


    • I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts those are false flag post by his fellow Kossacks…


  2. Heh.


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: