Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |||
| S&P futures | 2648.75 | 5 | ||
| Eurostoxx index | 365.94 | -3.21 | ||
| Oil (WTI) | 64.54 | 0.24 | ||
| 10 Year Government Bond Yield | 2.84% | |||
| 30 Year fixed rate mortgage | 4.46% | |||
Stocks are higher this morning after yesterday’s bloodbath. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Troubles with Facebook and the potential for a trade war with China caused a 3% decline in the stock market yesterday. This pushed the 10 year bond yield down towards 2.8%.
New Home Sales came in at 618k, more or less flat on a MOM and YOY basis.
Durable Goods orders came in much stronger than expected, increasing 3.1% MOM and almost 9% YOY. Ex-transportation, they rose 1.9% MOM and 8.1% YOY. Core Capital Goods orders (a proxy for business investment / capital expenditures) rose 1.8% MOM and 8% YOY. We might see some strategists bump up their Q1 GDP numbers on that reading.
KB Home reported first quarter earnings that missed on the top line; however the stock was up regardless after hours. Operating Margins improved, driven by an increase in gross margins. Bottom line numbers are not really comparable given the big adjustment to deferred tax assets as a result of the corporate tax cut. It is interesting to see an increase in gross margins, which have been falling pretty much across the industry. Perhaps it is a sign that home price growth is again outstripping cost growth (particularly labor and commodities).
The Senate passed a $1.3 trillion spending bill that will keep the government open. Donald Trump is mulling a veto over wall funding, but that is probably just noise.
Historically, house prices and the homeownership rate have correlated rather closely, but that broke down after house prices bottomed in 2012. What is going on? The first question to ask is whether the increase in homeownership that started in the mid-90s was due to increasing home prices or something else. We know that the Clinton Administration began to pull on some policy levers (and jawbone the GSEs) to increase lending to underserved markets and areas.
The wealth that was being created in the stock market rally probably helped as well. Easy credit during the bubble also pulled some people into the housing market as well. Once the bubble popped, many people lost their homes and became renters. Finally, tight supply in the aftermath of the bubble is preventing many from buying, and professional investors who are buying starter homes to rent them out are exacerbating the problem.
Prepayments hit a 4 year low, according to Black Knight Financial Service’s First Look on February mortgage performance data. Foreclosure starts fell 25% MOM after spiking in January. Hurricane-related delinquencies fell.
Realtor.com says that this Spring Selling Season is set to become one of the most competitive ever, with lots of buyers who were unable to find anything last year competing with new homebuyers. How are homebuyers reacting to the environment? Increasing down payments, increasing earnest money, and bidding through the asking price.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Anyone care to explain to why I should give a shit that information provided by facebook was used for political purposes?
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Because Trump won.
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Because it causes Vox to be lonely & sad.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/21/17144748/case-against-facebook
Douthat’s piece that was linked earlier in the week was spot on. The impact of Facebook was beyond trivial compared to the impact of the coverage that Trump received on CNN, etc.
But none of them want to take responsibility for helping to promote him as the Republican candidate most likely to lose to HRC when it backfired.
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But none of them want to take responsibility for helping to promote him as the Republican candidate most likely to lose to HRC when it backfired.
And that is what it is all about…
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Anyone care to explain to why I should give a shit that information provided by facebook was used for political purposes?
You shouldn’t, if that is the question.
—
I don’t think that is the question presented.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/what-facebook-users-should-know-about-cambridge-analytica-and-privacy/
Make sure you read down to the previous similar Facebook privacy abuses –
that Facebook cannot be trusted to keep private what it tells its user is private is absolutely clear.
Caveat: I have been telling friends and clients to avoid the damned site like the plague for ten years.
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i never saw the appeal. never joined. but i have a real hard time getting excited about it.
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As a general rule, you shouldn’t assume that anything you post on the Internet is private.
Facebook and other social media provided the platform that the narcissistic exhibitionist culture that is the United States wanted. To complain about lack of privacy now is absurd.
No one is forcing people onto Facebook or forcing them to post a bunch of private information.
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I really wonder if Facebook will be irreparably harmed by this.
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I think not. The only people who are even aware of it are the hard core Daily Kos types who are following every twist and turn of the blame game for Trump and media types who are opposed to Facebook as a competitor. Both types merge at Vox.
The passage of the bill that diluted safe harbor provisions for hosting was a far bigger deal.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/craigslist-removes-personal-ads-after-trafficking-act-passes-w518302
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I really wonder if Facebook will be irreparably harmed by this.
Facebook is for old people. In fact my teenage son and his friends have pretty much no interest in social media…
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acebook is for old people
That’s the impression I’m getting as well.
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This would make a good movie in the age of Trump:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/03/23/americas-first-hush-money-scandal-alexander-hamiltons-torrid-affair-with-maria-reynolds/
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9-0 Important case because it recognizes state court power to adjudicate these claims.
Kagan’s first paragraph is a model of clarity that only Roberts ever approaches.
JUSTICE KAGAN delivered the opinion of the Court.
This case presents two questions about the Securities
Litigation Uniform Standards Act of 1998 (SLUSA), 112
Stat. 3227. First, did SLUSA strip state courts of jurisdic-
tion over class actions alleging violations of only the Secu-
rities Act of 1933 (1933 Act), 48 Stat. 74, as amended, 15
U. S. C. §77a et seq.? And second, even if not, did SLUSA
empower defendants to remove such actions from state to
federal court? We answer both questions no.
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Why did the ten year rate go down?
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Think it is just a risk-off trade happening… People selling stocks to hide in bonds over the weekend.
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But -but -but – if short term demand for bonds went up, which I would have expected, why didn’t bond rates rise? Or is it that premiums were being charged so effective rates dropped?
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When bond prices go up, rates fall. When everyone wants bonds, the one who is willing to take the lowest rate wins.
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http://reason.com/volokh/2018/03/24/does-the-sixth-amendment-right-to-counse
Should the right to counsel extend to pre-indictment plea negotiations? 6th Circuit, bound by Supreme Court precedent, says “no”, but healthy discussion of precedent and text and original intent follows. When this case goes to Supremes which argument will prevail?
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Mark:
I don’t know know how the relevant words were understood at the time of the founding, so I don’t know the right answer. But I thought this was interesting.
Judges Eric Clay and Helene White also wrote separate opinions concurring in the judgment arguing that prevailing Supreme Court precedent is wrong, but nonetheless controlled the outsome in Turner.
Do these judges take an oath to uphold the Constitution or to uphold Supreme Court precedent? If the former as I suspect, then I think they are obligated not just to say that precedent is wrong, but to rule against it.
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In short, we inherited the concept of precedent from the English common law and the notion that the standard interpretation of the law – the correct reading – comes from the superior court and an inferior court is bound by it. Any other theory of jurisprudence would be chaotic. When lower court opinions follow the Supremes but criticize their reasoning it opens up an opportunity for the higher court to revisit its precedent.
And I am interested in seeing whether the Supremes take this up and how they will split, if at all.
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Mark:
In short, we inherited the concept of precedent from the English common law and the notion that the standard interpretation of the law – the correct reading – comes from the superior court and an inferior court is bound by it.
Then judges should take an oath to follow SCOTUS precedent, not the Constitution.
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And they are the same hectoring intolerant breed of cat..
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Your assigned reading should your curiousity get the better of you and find you watching 60 Minutes tonight.
http://reason.com/volokh/2018/03/19/stormy-daniels-and-the-law#fold
I will not be so I look forward to your comments if you do.
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The takeaway from the Stormy Daniels interview is that Trump (or his handlers) are more than willing to pay to keep something quiet. I don’t know what anyone else has, or what he’s willing to pay, but I’ll bet Mr Mueller either knows or is looking into it.
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Mich:
…but I’ll bet Mr Mueller either knows or is looking into it.
Given that his mandate is to investigate Russian “interference” in the election, i suppose it makes perfect sense that he would be looking into payoffs to porn stars with embarrassing info on Trump.
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That would be following the Whitewater precedent as it lead to Paula Jones & Monica Lewinsky.
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jnc:
That would be following the Whitewater precedent as it lead to Paula Jones & Monica Lewinsky.
Oh, I know. These special prosecutors are not confined by anything at all. They go wherever they want to go, for whatever reason they want to go there.
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Did Stormy do him for love? I know 60 something year old men are hawt,sure, so was it just lust on her part?
Not gonna lie, I’d hit it.
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who? Stormy or Anderson?
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Well, both I guess.
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Did Stormy do him for love? I know 60 something year old men are hawt,sure, so was it just lust on her part?
According to her, her thought was “Ugh”. And not in a good way.
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So, why she bang him?
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It’s more that he’d be looking for payoffs to Russians.
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