Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2729.3 | 6.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 374.0 | 1.3 |
Oil (WTI) | 61.2 | 0.0 |
US dollar index | 83.6 | 0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.87% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.25 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 102.5 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.4 |
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.
Donald Trump is set to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, however there is talk of exempting Canada and Mexico from them (which is where we get most of our foreign steel to begin with). That exemption will be used as leverage to renegotiate NAFTA. So far, the trade war is largely symbolic – Trump tweeted that he wanted to see a $1 billion decrease in our trade deficit with China, which is about $375 billion. In other words, it is a drop in the bucket, and all for show. That might have been an error however, some reports are saying he meant $100 billion, which probably makes more sense. That said, stocks are taking the trade war in stride, and bonds seem to have found a level here.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 231k last week from 220k. Job outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported that companies announced 35,369 job cuts in February.
The overall economy grew at a modest to a moderate pace in January and February, according to the Fed’s Beige Book survey. With regard to employment, it said: “On balance, employment grew at a moderate pace since the previous report. Across the country, contacts observed persistent labor market tightness and brisk demand for qualified workers, as well as increased activity at staffing placement services. Several Districts reported continued worker shortages across most sectors, with contacts often mentioning shortages in the construction, information technology, and manufacturing sectors. In many Districts, wage growth picked up to a moderate pace. Most Districts saw employers raise wages and expand benefit packages in response to tight labor market conditions. Contacts in a few Districts conveyed reports of modest increases in compensation following passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” The increases in wage inflation are a good sign for the economy overall, but not so much for interest rates. The Street is looking for a strong reading in wage growth in tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report: an increase of 2.9% YOY.
Buyer sentiment fell last month, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. “Volatility in consumer housing sentiment continued into February, with the new tax law beginning to impact respondents’ take-home pay and the stock market creating negative headlines due to early-month turbulence,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Additionally, consumers’ expectations for higher mortgage rates suggest that consumers expect the Fed to hike rates a few more times in 2018. We will continue to track how consumer housing attitudes trend in the coming months as these various market forces play out.”
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
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The internet and 24/7 cable news are mixed blessings. See:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/03/08/conspiracy-theorists-harass-sutherland-springs-churchgoers-pastor-whose-daughter-was-killed/?utm_term=.44182b500c71
Arseholes like these – conspiracy theorists of all political and religious stripes – used to stay in their own little worlds.
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The Incumbent Protection Act of 2018
https://newrepublic.com/article/147156/ban-facebook-elections
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The fundamental flaw in the argument:
“If fake news truly poses a crisis for democracy, then it calls for a radical response.”
It doesn’t pose a crisis and it doesn’t call for a response. This is simply an overreaction to the wrong person winning the election and a need to blame everything and everyone other than the losing candidate herself for the result.
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Vox jumps on the bandwagon.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/3/9/17096418/newspapers-media-facebook-pledge-not-report-russian-hacks-journalism-ethics
Same justification:
“But at this particularly dangerous point in our nation’s history, reporters and Facebook alike just might be willing to embrace a new ethical obligation out of a sense of civic duty.”
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Why isn’t Trump behaving as we said he would, goddamnit!!!
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/03/trump-is-following-the-same-playbook-as-other-authoritarian-populists-hes-just-much-worse-at-it.html
What if all the #Resist is just LARPING?
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