Morning Report: Decent jobs report 11/3/17

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2579.0 2.3
Eurostoxx Index 395.2 0.3
Oil (WTI) 54.8 0.3
US dollar index 87.7 0.0
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.34%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.875
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.938
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.95

Stocks are up small after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Jobs report data dump:

  • Nonfarm payrolls up 261,000 versus 325,000 expected
  • 2 month payroll revision up 90,000
  • Unemployment rate 4.1% versus 4.2% expected
  • Labor force participation rate 62.7% vs 63% expected
  • Average hourly earnings flat / up 2.4% YOY.

Overall, a decent report. Payrolls disappointed, but the 2 month revision more than made up for the miss. The unemployment rate is now the lowest since 2000. The drop in the labor force participation rate and flat hourly earnings were disappointing, however. This report won’t make any difference to the Fed’s thinking for December, and the market is basically calling a 25 basis point hike a sure thing at this point.

Note that the miss in average hourly earnings was driven in part by the hurricanes. Restaurant and bar jobs were hit the hardest in the areas affected, and they are lower paying jobs. The loss of these low-paying restaurant and bar jobs in September artificially increased average wages overall. That effect was reversed in October.

The PMI for services was flat in October, while the ISM Services index increased to 60.1. Hurricane effects could be coming into play here as well.

Factory orders increased 1.2% in September, as the manufacturing sector continues to expand.

If you heard a snap yesterday, that was the sound of McMansions in places like Darien, CT and McLean, VA cracking on the proposed sharp reduction in the mortgage interest deduction. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers was down 6% yesterday on the proposal, which lowers the MID cap to $500,000 and ends the deduction for second homes. The homebuilder ETF was only down 2.5%. Automaker Tesla was also hit 7% on the proposed elimination of the $7,500 electric car tax credit. I also wonder how this will affect jumbo delinquencies and demand for jumbo MBS.

The NAHB is warning that the change in the mortgage interest deduction could trigger a housing recession. Their point is that it will cause weakness in some high end markets and that weakness will spread to others. FWIW, I think the sheer lack of inventory is the most important characteristic of the current housing market and that will dominate. That said, it won’t be good for home prices in the million dollar range at the margin, and some markets in California could see a moderation of home prices.

27 Responses

  1. The left is really bent out of shape of the Powell nomination.

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  2. If the bill portions published this morning become law the treatment of contributed capital to a business entity will change in one way that has dire consequences for small business. It is proposed to treat contributed capital as income to the entity. Could be corp, llc, or partnership, doesn’t matter. You and your partner put personal savings into your partnership and it is income to the partnership, and thus to you and your partner. I kid you not.

    This proposal, if it is included, I predict will not survive one year. But think what a mess it is for planning expansion of your small business. Previous IRS rulings limited how much contributed capital could be called loans. We will see what happens next. Obviously the owner would want to structure as much as possible to loans. Perhaps having the entity seek loans from a bank secured by personal assets would work, perhaps not.

    6
    ‘‘SEC. 76. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CAPITAL.
    7
    ‘‘(a) IN GENERAL .—Gross income includes any con-
    8 tribution to the capital of any entity.

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  3. Worth noting.

    “There’s a history of controversial presidential opining on prosecutions: it shows how extreme & dangerous are Trump’s DOJ tweets:”

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  4. Also worth noting:

    “Mueller grand jury investigating Vin Weber, 2nd top D.C. lobbyist

    Special counsel Robert Mueller’s grand jury is investigating the former Minnesota congressman as well as a prominent Democratic lobbyist, according to a person with direct knowledge of the investigation.

    By DESMOND BUTLER Associated Press
    November 3, 2017 — 11:45am”

    http://www.startribune.com/mueller-grand-jury-investigating-top-dc-lobbyists/454811853/

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  5. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl will serve no prison time for endangering fellow soldiers when he walked off his post in Afghanistan in 2009 and was captured by the Taliban.

    Army Col. Judge Jeffery R. Nance said Bergdahl will be dishonorably discharged when issuing the ruling Friday after nearly two weeks of testimony by Bergdahl’s former comrades. Bergdahl, 31, was held by the Taliban for five years before being released in a prisoner swap in 2014.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sgt-bowe-bergdahl-sentencing-no-prison-time/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=44282795

    WTF. Granted, i’m pretty ignorant about how military justice works. but nothing?

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    • I think several things influenced the judge, Trump, stipulated suffering under the Taliban for 5 years and diagnosed schizoaffective disorder.

      Dude should have never been in the Army. He was discharged from the Coast Gaurd after suffering a panic attacknin basic training.

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      • well that all makes sense

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      • I tend to trust the verdict here. I don’t think they were predisposed to leniency.

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      • McWing:

        I think several things influenced the judge, Trump, stipulated suffering under the Taliban for 5 years and diagnosed schizoaffective disorder.

        I’ve been thinking about the idea that Trump’s comments influenced the judge to be more lenient. The reasoning, apparently, would be that, in light of Trump’s comments, the public’s confidence in the objectivity of military justice would be lost if a harsher sentence was issued. Ironically, though, the fact of a lenient sentence on such grounds should itself lead to a loss in the public’s confidence in the objectivity of military justice, as obviously it was influenced by Trump’s comments.

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  6. NoVA, I’m pretty sure the two people arguing on PL that you got drawn into are just sock puppets from the same account.

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  7. Lol

    She claims in her book that she did not recall sending the email and could not find it in her computer archives. Nevertheless, she eventually admitted publicly to sending it, believing her reputation would have suffered regardless.

    Uh…

    Brazile recommended Clinton see an acupuncturist

    Horseshit.

    After Clinton’s fainting spell, some Democratic insiders were abuzz with talk of replacing her — and Brazile says she was giving it considerable thought.

    Snicker.

    at least not when the Democratic Party was fighting for its survival against a hostile foreign power,” she writes.

    She hits all the tropes.

    Brazile describes Mook, in his mid-30s, as overseeing a patriarchy.

    The patriarch ffs, a broad is the nominee!

    Donna is the true feminist.

    If that b—- ever does anything like that to me again, I’m gonna walk.”

    I think this says more about Donna’s insecurity, to be honest.

    She describes him as a spy, saying he treated her like “a crazy, senile old auntie and couldn’t wait to tell all his friends the nutty things she said.
    In staff meetings, Brazile recalls, “Brandon often rolled his eyes as if I was the stupidest woman he’d ever had to endure on his climb to the top. He openly scoffed at me, snorting sometimes when I made an observation.”

    She’s, get over yourself.

    “This was chitchat, like I was talking to someone I didn’t know,” Brazile writes. “I know Hillary. I know she was being as sincere as possible, but I wanted something more from her.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/brazile-i-considered-replacing-clinton-with-biden-as-2016-democratic-nominee/2017/11/04/f0b75418-bf4c-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html?utm_term=.7366ca4132ac

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    • You were correct about that from the beginning. When I linked DJT’s executive order, it was because I think guns should not be readily available to the mentally ill. You were right that that action had nothing to do with this shooting, of course. But it remains a bad idea to ease the availability of arms to the mentally ill.

      Look, I don’t want anyone coming after my shotgun. But I don’t understand permitting children of single digit age, or violent ex-cons, or the mentally ill. There are folks making the argument for each of those “constituencies.”

      I have always been one to decry the arguments of the gun prohibitors on the urban coastal far left. We know there are more guns than people in some states with very low gun death rates. Texas has a relatively low gun death rate. Montana has a very low one. But registration and permitting can be done without infringing on the Second Amendment, and we all know that. We just fear it will be taken too far, but we can certainly keep that from happening.

      Addendum: just a point of curiosity – DD by itself is a disqualifier but BCD by itself is not.

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      • Mark:

        There are folks making the argument for each of those “constituencies.”

        Who is making the argument against the mentally ill being prohibited from buying weapons? The objection being raised in your link was to the absence of due process in establishing who qualified as “mentally ill” enough to be denied access to a gun, not to the mere fact of the denial.

        Also, it wasn’t a Trump EO. It was an actual law, passed by Congress and signed by the president in the manner prescribed by the Constitution, which rescinded an Obama-era regulatory agency “rule”.

        President Trump signed a measure into law Tuesday that rescinds an Obama-era rule aimed at blocking gun sales to certain mentally ill people.

        The GOP-majority Senate passed the bill by a 57-43 margin earlier this month, following a House vote to overturn the rule.

        The fact that it was merely a regulatory “rule” in the first place rather than an actual law is enough in my mind to justify the due process objections.

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        • You’re right, I misunderstood the history.

          As to the “constituencies”, MOST states have removed age limits on rifle and shotgun ownership, which is not affected by the federal handgun laws regarding kids. Having got my first .22 rifle on my tenth birthday, I think ten is a good minimum age. YMMV.

          My dad had to take it away from me because I tried to shoot pigeons off our barn roof with that .22, so in my case, eleven might have been better.

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      • I don’t understand how putting roadblocks up for law abiding people to acquire weapons stops this. You’re saying the government that fucked this up from the beginning should be tasked with more things they’ll fuck up.

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        • I don’t want roadblocks for law abiding people who are not mentally ill or seven years old.

          Also, I should make clear that I think the leadership on registration and permitting should be on the states, and that the federal role should be as the information repository, available to the states. OTOH, I would not oppose a federal minimum standard for registration and permitting that did not provide roadblocks for law abiding persons other than mentally ill or single digit age children.

          Useful in the criminal justice realm, but with little impact until a generation had passed, would be a ballistic registration of all handguns sold in commerce. The FBI wanted this in 1957, or before, acknowledging that it would not be effective for many years, but suggesting it might as well begin sometime. A ballistic registry would eventually enable police to find the first owner of most hand guns used in crimes, and as we know hand guns are the actual weapons of choice in high gun crime areas.

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        • OTOH, I would not oppose a federal minimum standard for registration and permitting that did not provide roadblocks for law abiding persons other than mentally ill or single digit age children.

          What mass shooting would this have stopped?

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        • What mass shooting would this have stopped?

          Not really the point, is it? Most gun murder in America is NOT related to “mass shootings.” It is possible that some mass murder would have been prevented, but I certainly don’t know which one, nor would I even care if rifles and shotguns were not subject to registration and permitting. However, I would keep the long standing ban on machine guns, add the ban on conversions, keep the various laws against sawed offs, etc. Might add a magazine size limit.

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        • Why limit magazine sizes? What impact on gun violence would it have?

          Also, it’s illegal to convert a semi auto to full auto, though you can simulate automotic fire with your finger and a belt loop.

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