Morning Report: Incomes rise but wages flat 9/29/17

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2506.8 -1.0
Eurostoxx Index 386.5 0.1
Oil (WTI) 51.6 0.1
US dollar index 86.3 0.0
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.31%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.05
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.98
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.88

 

Stocks are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.
Personal Incomes rose 0.2%, right in line with estimates. The prior month was revised downward to 0.2%. The increase in personal incomes largely came from increased rental income, transfer payments, and interest income, not wages and salaries. Consumer spending rose 0.1%, while all of the inflation numbers came in a touch light. Weak auto sales drove the low consumer spending number. The personal savings rate was 3.6%. It probably won’t affect any of the Fed’s thinking with respect to a December hike, however the declining annual PCE inflation will concern some of the doves at the FOMC, as will the lack of wage growth. Note that these numbers will have some effects of the TX and FL hurricanes, and BEA is unable to separate them out.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index bounced back in September, hitting 65.2, way above expectations. While several regions have been reporting strength, Chicago has been an outlier.
Consumer sentiment slipped slightly in September, showing only a modest impact of the hurricanes, according to the University of Michigan survey.
Donald Trump reportedly met with Kevin Warsh to discuss the Federal Reserve Chairman position. The choice will probably end up either Warsh or Yellen.
Tax reform could be a big boost for the financial sector, especially banks. Since banks generally have fewer deductions than other businesses, a drop in the tax rate disproportionately benefits them. Note that lowering rates will create issues with pass-through small businesses, and could be subject to abuse. Note that the Admin is already softening its stance on state and local tax deductions, which has always been a tough one politically. Given the probability that no Democrats will support tax reform (at least at the individual level), a few blue state Republicans could sink it.
Most renters would like to own a home someday, however the up-front costs are the biggest obstacle. Renters need to be educated more on FHA loans, which are designed specifically to get the first time homebuyer into a home with a minimum down payment.
An improving economy means less payday loans. I wonder how much of this has been due to the CFPB too.

15 Responses

  1. For all of their other issues, I do appreciate that Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi are the only ones on “the left” who evidence any skepticism about the Russia stores in the rest of the media.

    “Yet Another Major Russia Story Falls Apart. Is Skepticism Permissible Yet?
    Glenn Greenwald
    September 28 2017, 11:48 a.m.”

    https://theintercept.com/2017/09/28/yet-another-major-russia-story-falls-apart-is-skepticism-permissible-yet/

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Nice

    Liked by 1 person

    • While this was once a great truth in life, I watched it change in my own ‘ute. In my senior year in HS the four date sequence, beginning with just holding hands at the door while saying “good night, I really hope we can do this again” to a second date kiss and some gentle groping to a third date of – well you may recall the sequence if you are old enough. By the time I was in Law School there was a one date sequence. Period.

      And this is also where “tribalism” broke down, IMHO. Lust. Variety. You must recall that. It is why organized religion, although an outsized influence, loses out to disorganized religion in the current state of affairs.

      A day after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that the United States maintains “lines of communications” with Kim Jong Un’s regime, Trump wrote on Twitter that Tillerson is “wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man” — his nickname for Kim.

      POTUS is neo-tribal, however, despite his catholic choice in sex partners.

      Like

  3. First I’ve heard of ISIS making this claim.

    “Why Did the Islamic State Claim the Las Vegas Shooting?

    Assessing the group’s puzzling statement
    Graeme Wood 12:27 PM ET ”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/isis-amaq-las-vegas/541746/

    Like

  4. “Latest Fake News Panic Appears to Be Fake News

    A Republican Senator and much of the mainstream media punks itself, proving we should all spend more time outside
    By Matt Taibbi”

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/taibbi-latest-fake-news-panic-appears-to-be-fake-news-w506396

    Liked by 1 person

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