Morning Report: Credit scores back to pre-crisis levels 5/30/17

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2409.0 -4.8
Eurostoxx Index 390.1 -1.2
Oil (WTI) 49.5 -0.4
US dollar index 88.8  
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.24%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.6
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.81
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.98

Markets are down on overseas weakness. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Personal Incomes rose 0.4% last month, while personal spending rose the same amount. The PCE inflation index rose 0.2%. All three were in line with expectations, and point to a recovery in the second quarter. The Fed Funds futures are pricing in an 84% chance of a rate hike at the June FOMC meeting, which is only 2 weeks away.

The Fed will also likely begin to lay out its plan to let its balance sheet shrink at the next meeting as well. It looks like they will allow a small portion of their portfolio to run off and they will keep increasing that number every quarter. Note that this could be put on hold if we get into a protracted debt ceiling fight this fall.

Home prices are up 5.8% YOY, according to the Black Knight Financial home price index. The index hit $272k, as strength on the West Coast was offset by weakness in the Deep South. The Case-Shiller HPI came up with the similar numbers as well. Meanwhile, housing demand remains strong, according to Redfin, as inventory remains tight and new listings draw in buyers from the sidelines. Despite these market dynamics, home building remains stuck at recessionary levels. It does open up the possibility of more cash-out refis though.

US credit scores hit a 12 year high this Spring as consumers continue to improve their financial situations by saving more and borrowing less. Interesting tidbit: More than 6 million families will have personal bankruptcies fall off of their credit reports over the next 5 years. Chapter 7 and 13 personal bankruptcy filings hit 1.5 million in 2010. That will be an additional source of mortgage demand in addition to Millennial first time homebuyers.

Consumer confidence slipped in May, however it remains elevated. Investor confidence rose.

Neel Kashkari discusses bubbles and the Fed. I found this part fascinating: “When I went to Treasury in July 2006, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declared to his staff that the U.S. economy was due for some form of crisis. He didn’t know where it would come from but, because markets had been stable for some time, history suggested something would happen. So he tasked his staff (including me) to work with the Federal Reserve and Securities and Exchange Commission to look for signs of trouble. We looked at a variety of scenarios, from an individual large bank running into trouble to a hedge fund blowing up. Sadly (and embarrassingly), we never considered a nationwide housing downturn. We missed it, and we were looking. It seems obvious now. This was clearly a “false negative.”” As the real estate bubble was peaking, the Fed looked for a catalyst for a crisis, and didn’t see the housing bubble. I know hindsight is 20/20, but that is an astounding admission…

33 Responses

  1. I was told that if Trump was elected the government would start censoring speech… and the were right!*

    http://hotair.com/archives/2017/05/30/portland-mayor-lets-not-get-carried-away-whole-free-speech-thing/

    *stolen from Instapundit.

    Like

  2. A reality check for Democrats who believe that just by not being Trump they will see major gains in 2018.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-democrats-need-a-new-message-w484569

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    • “enormous numbers of voters would rather elect an openly corrupt or mentally deranged Republican than vote for a Democrat. But nobody in the Democratic Party seems terribly worried about this.”

      Testify.

      Liked by 1 person

    • The story of Greg Gianforte, a fiend who just wiped out a Democrat in a congressional race about ten minutes after being charged with assaulting a reporter, is déjà vu all over again.

      They still don’t understand that things like that are reasons FOR voting for the candidate, not against.

      Like

    • The Hectoring Pussyhats and the beta boys would be a good description of today’s Democratic Party.

      Would make a good band name too…

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    • jnc:

      A reality check for Democrats who believe that just by not being Trump they will see major gains in 2018.

      Taibbi is right, but he fails to see that the problem manifests at least as much in himself, as in when he says thinks like:

      A lot of these things are true. America is obviously a deeply racist and paranoid country.

      That America is “deeply racist” is actually far from obvious to most people, and indeed the fact that so much of Democratic policy and rhetoric is grounded in this condescending assumption is exactly what drives a lot of people to tell the D’s to f-off.

      Also things like this:

      Obama was trying to point out that people respond when you demonstrate that you don’t believe they’re unredeemable.

      Actually, people respond when you don’t treat them like they need to be redeemed in the first placed. Again, Taibbi simply cannot help but ooze the very condescension which he ironically recognizes is a major cause of Dem troubles.

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      • That America is “deeply racist” is actually far from obvious to most people, and indeed the fact that so much of Democratic policy and rhetoric is grounded in this condescending assumption is exactly what drives a lot of people to tell the D’s to f-off.

        My natural response on reading that was to roll my eyes. Also, it’s a form of irrational nationalism, that America is somehow a specific way because it is America, and Belgium is somehow free of paranoia and racism (however you define them) because some some ineffable Belgium-ness. And characteristic broad enough to be applied to all of Americans is likely to be manifest in some form in all of humanity.

        That being said, I decided to read that bit charitably and assume he threw that in there in order to establish the bona fides of his criticism. What I expect he is slowly learning is that bona fides in one area don’t matter to true believers, who can allow no heresies, at all. His lack of ideological purity is going to end him at Rolling Stone if he’s not careful.

        Actually, people respond when you don’t treat them like they need to be redeemed in the first placed. Again, Taibbi simply cannot help but ooze the very condescension which he ironically recognizes is a major cause of Dem troubles.

        You nailed it. And it doesn’t matter what your position, ideologically, it should be self-evident that people don’t look at themselves as either irredeemable or redeemable sinners: they believe they are right, the vast majority of the time. They don’t believe the fact they disagree with you or vote a certain way or value certain things out of vogue means they need to be redeemed. They don’t object to Democrats because “they are rude about the way I am wrong or uneducated, although I grant that I am both wrong and uneducated; they just shouldn’t be rude about it”.

        It’s a weird arrogance that assumes that vast swathes of people are sitting around in their ignorance of disagreement, waiting for the enlightened to come share their great wisdom.

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  3. Bahahaha . suck it Nashville.

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  4. THe funniest thing in the linked video is Joy Reid citing John Brennan as a reliable source.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/30/watch-msnbcs-joy-reid-get-rattled-confronted-obamas-iran-back-channel/

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    • Someone is still living in the past:

      “In other words, the Post’s reporting could be not only inaccurate, but further Soviet objectives.”

      This seems to be a pretty accurate description of the current state of politics though:

      ““At the heart of this charge, of this accusation on the other side is that one couldn’t trust the outgoing administration because they are Democrats,” Reid said. “Essentially we are not one country, right? We’re two countries in which there’s a revolution every four years and the new regime takes power.””

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      • Yes, we need to pull together as a nation… Let’s encourage everyone in NATO to fend for themselves… A good old German military buildup always brings out the patriotic spirit!

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  5. Speaking of maybe not getting it, while simultaneously prepping the excuse for Democrats underperforming in 2018:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/05/30/on-voting-rights-were-becoming-two-separate-and-unequal-countries/?utm_term=.7f63b2519099

    Despite a string of losses in the courts, Republicans are going to keep trying to make voting as difficult as possible, particularly for African Americans, for one reason: It works. There are active debates about exactly how many people were kept from the polls in 2016 — for instance, some contend that Wisconsin’s voter-ID law disenfranchised enough African Americans to swing the state to Donald Trump — but every young person, urban dweller or racial minority they can keep from the polls increases the odds that Republicans will win.

    I know this just feels like articulating what “everybody knows” to folks on the left, but the condescension just oozes. If you’re worried about voter fraud, let me tell you: you’re a racist and a scumbag. Also, if you are ubran, young, or a racial minority, you support Democrats because you aren’t allowed to make your own decisions about anything. Do what we in the press and punditocracy say.

    Also, it’s just taken for granted Republican attempts at “voter suppression” actually suppress votes. Which I’ve seen little demonstrable evidence that there’s been any real voter suppression in any real sense. Just an increase in voter inconvenience, which while not ideal should not have any influence on voters showing up to elect a brigade of noble protectors to shield us from the evils of Trumphitler.

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    • KW:

      Just an increase in voter inconvenience

      Exactly. Saying that anyone has been “disenfranchised” is sheer propaganda and irritates me to no end. If requiring people to show an ID represents disenfranchisement, so does requiring people to vote between certain hours of the day.

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      • It isn’t the ID requirement per se, so much as that they’re capricious. Issue a national Voter ID to people the year they turn 18, revoke it if necessary (prison time, etc.), and simply let them use it no matter where they’re living.

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        • Mich:

          It isn’t the ID requirement per se, so much as that they’re capricious.

          How so?

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        • Every state has different forms that they’ll accept, and sometimes within a state (I’m looking at you here, Texas) they’re nonsensical. Accepting a concealed carry permit as ID but not a state-issued college ID card?

          Just create a national Voter ID and require that.

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        • Very thorough background check for CCP and a chunk of college students are not residents of the voting district they reside in. It makes perfect sense.

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        • Mich:

          Every state has different forms that they’ll accept…

          I wouldn’t call the mere existence of state-by-state variations an example of “caprice”.

          Accepting a concealed carry permit as ID but not a state-issued college ID card?

          The logic behind the Texas requirements looks pretty clear to me. It seems to accept any ID issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety, which happens to include concealed carry permits. Since college IDs are not issued by the state, they are not accepted. That doesn’t seem unreasonable to me, and it is definitely not “capricious”.

          I don’t have an objection to the creation of a national voter ID card, but I would object to federalizing the issue by making a national law prohibiting states from setting their own standards, even if some state requirements might not make sense to me personally. I’m not even sure such a law would be constitutional. Under the Constitution, states have a fairly wide degree of sovereignty and protection from federal impositions.

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        • “Accepting a concealed carry permit as ID but not a state-issued college ID card?”

          Your government at work!

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        • “It isn’t the ID requirement per se”

          Yes it is. Hence the desire of progressives to have utility bills count as acceptable forms of ID.

          It’s always amusing when occasionally one will argue that the same forms of ID should be required for buying a gun and voting, without actually thinking that through.

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        • jnc:

          Yes it is.

          To be fair, I assume Mich was speaking for herself, not the wider progressive movement. Hence she would be willing to accept a national ID requirement, while progressives more generally would be willing to accept nothing more restrictive than a piece of scratch paper with a “X” marked in crayon.

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        • Takes a lot of privelage to own crayons.

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      • @Scottc: “so does requiring people to vote between certain hours of the day.”

        Agree. There is a gap between lack of ease or efficiency and disenfranchisement, even if the intent is to suppress voter turnout, it’s using voter laziness or apathy as the fulcrum to do so. Determined voters can vote. Ergo, it is not disenfranchisement. I can see the capriciousness argument, but I can see capriciousness in everything government does at every level. It’s hardly confined to how they handle or mishandle voting.

        “so does requiring people to vote between certain hours of the day.”

        This is often used to increase difficulty in voting. As is closing polling stations most used by one party or the other. Again, not disenfranchisement, any more than gerrymandering is. Whether either is desirable is another discussion.

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  6. Never much liked Sununu but he’s hilarious here.

    Don’t think Camerota will have him on again soon.

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  7. I’ll admit that I usually think Kathy Griffith is funny and the head thing doesn’t bother me.

    Like

  8. Because they can’t do it on their own?

    Like

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