Morning Report: FOMC minutes mildly dovish 5/25/17

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2407.0 5.0
Eurostoxx Index 391.9 -0.5
Oil (WTI) 50.7 -0.7
US dollar index 88.7  
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.25%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.6
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.81
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4

Stocks are higher after the FOMC minutes came in a little more dovish than expected. Bonds and MBS are up as well.

The FOMC minutes were mildly bond-positive, as they introduced doubts as to the scope and timing of fiscal stimulus: “Many participants continued to view the possibility of expansionary fiscal policy changes in the United States as posing upside risks to their forecasts for U.S. economic growth, although they also noted that prospects for enactment of a more expansionary fiscal program, as well as its size, composition, and timing, remained highly uncertain.” One member (probably Neel Kashkari) also wanted to wait until inflation was closer to 2% before making any further moves. Bonds rallied a few basis points on the minutes, and the implied probability of a June hike dropped from 83% to 78% briefly before returning to 83%.

Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 234k from 233k last week, which is still extraordinarily low. This is 4 straight weeks below 240. The last time that happened was 1973. When you consider that (a) we still had the Vietnam draft at that point, and (b) population growth since then (52%) it is an extraordinary number.

Delinquencies rose in April, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The calendar may have played a part however as April ended on a Sunday, and most of the DQs were early-stage. The number fell to 4.08%, a drop of 3.58% YOY.

Given the big increase in home price appreciation, many FHA loans done at a 97 LTV might have enough new equity to refinance into conventional loans with no PMI. Loan officers, take a look at your past deals, and if you have a FHA loan, take a look to see if you can save some money.


25 Responses

  1. How to create more Trump voters and keep them motivated:

    “McAuliffe pardons Salvadoran mother for driving offense in hopes of stopping deportation

    Richmond Times-Dispatch”


  2. For anyone wondering about who Louise Mensch is.

    “The Rise of the Liberal Conspiracy Theorist
    Louise Mensch’s loony Trump fantasies fill a craving the left didn’t know it had.
    By Katy Waldman”


  3. Interesting read:

    “Donald’s Myths
    Rune Møller Stahl Bue Rübner Hansen

    Liberals won’t get anywhere fact-checking Donald Trump, because they have no powerful message of their own.”


    • I liked this:

      liberals who decry our post-factual age are really mourning the end of an era in which their statements of fact and value stood relatively undisputed.

      The Internet ended the MSM’s role as gatekeeper of what was newsworthy, as well as the interpretation of what was happening.

      I think it is more about polarization, and the “Yes, he is an asshole, but he is our asshole” mindset. I may not like DJT, but that doesn’t mean I want to be ruled by Chuck Schumer either…


      • I may not like DJT, but that doesn’t mean I want to be ruled by Chuck Schumer either…

        Ding ding ding!

        Liked by 1 person

      • I do not believe there was ever an era of enlightened, objective news reportage, thus I can’t ever accept the narrative that we now suddenly have a “post-fact” world of fake news. It’s always been, in some form, a non-fact world of fake news and biased agendas, so I feel like they are mourning something that never was.


  4. Surprised USAA knuckled under to the left. You have to be military to join, and the military leans overwhelmingly conservative…


    • Over the years I’ve gotten the feeling that USAA doesn’t really like some FOX people. I don’t know why. Maybe projection on my part. FSM knows I’ve always thought Hannity was one of their prime doofi.


      • Unforced error… They are going to lose customers if they don’t return and they will lose customers if they return.

        Why corporate america thinks choosing political sides is a good business decision is beyond me. You please nobody, and you piss off people on both sides of the aisle.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Although I’d posit that that would be cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face on the customer’s part. I’ve never had any other insurance company, but I’ve heard too many horror stories from friends and family to ever switch away from USAA. I’d stick with them even if the endorsed Trump.


        • I don’t pay attention to boycotts, ever. If I like a store or a product, I go to that store or buy that product, period. If a store I like endorses a candidate I don’t like, I don’t care, still go to that store. I enjoy the performances of actors and musicians who I probably don’t agree with about anything, outside of their entertainment product.

          I will happily go to Target and then swing by Hobby Lobby. I am shopping those places for products, not belief systems.


    • Some might argue that certain powerful people behind the scenes are objecting to Hannity’s publicly talking about the Seth Rich case, and asserting he was murdered because he leaked DNC emails to Wikileaks. So the argument there is people with influence and resources are pulling out all the stops to bring behind-the-scenes pressure, and the public boycott is part of that but the reason folks are knuckling under is largely the product of influence, blackmail, threats, etc. Which would make a kind of sense: many corporate decisions are made for personal reasons. A poor business decision might be better understood in the light of personal threats, blackmail, etc.

      Little Friday morning conspiracy thinking.

      Ultimately, I don’t care, but it’s interesting that The Daily Caller doesn’t even mention the Seth Rich thing, when it’s integral to the story. Except to say: “Media Matters’ argument for kickstarting the shaming campaign, though, focused more on Hannity’s role as a “propagandist” on behalf of President Trump than on his conspiracy theories.”

      Which is also interesting, giving Media Matter’s is a Clinton-funded organization deeply in bed with the DNC, and began the present onslaught directly after Hannity started talking about Seth Rich.


  5. Is it just me or does it look like Katy Perry is transitioning into Eminem these days?


    • Yup. All her new songs I’ve heard are all weird and off kilter. She’s trying to abandon the old poppy hooks and whatnot that built her fame for some sort of trivial nonsense she mistakenly believes is artsy.


      • I swear most pop tunes today could be written by an expert system.

        Rock and roll is so long in the tooth and dying to be replaced. Who is the next Louis Armstrong or Buddy Holly?


        • New stuff is very theatrical. Caught it on SNL and felt like she’d watched some old early 80s Bowie concerts, listened to some Laurie Anderson . . . very performance arty. Lots of dudes in drag. Weird people, dressed weirdly, doing weird things. I’m guessing it’s all about the concerts and the whole performance. Music did not strike me as catchy.


        • I listen to the Sirius XM station XMU occasionally. Most of it seems poppy, but nobody is breaking any new ground.

          Sgt Pepper just celebrated its 50th birthday…. Is there anything out there that is as groundbreaking as that was?

          FWIW, I go to the local jam sessions and most of the musicians are 20 – 35 or so. They all play Zeppelin, classic 70s, etc. Nothing current.


        • Greg Allman died. Bummer. I was surprised that Lemmy lived to an older age.


      • I was in a cover band that did I kissed a Girl. I did it really heavy…It is a fun tune to rock out to, believe it or not.


    • This quote isn’t actually about ISIS:

      ““The greatest thing we can do just unite and love on each other and like, no barriers, no borders, like, we all need to just co-exist.””

      It’s about ending her fans feud with other singers like Grande. Full quote:

      “”I think the greatest thing we can do now is unite as people, as fan bases, all of it. Whatever we say behind people’s backs, the Internet can be a little bit ruthless as far as fan bases go but I think that the greatest thing we can do is just unite and love on each other. No barriers, no borders, we all just need to co-exist.””


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

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