Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2266.5 | 5.5 |
Eurostoxx Index | 361.3 | 0.8 |
Oil (WTI) | 52.2 | 0.1 |
US dollar index | 93.7 | 0.3 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.55% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.29 |
Stocks are up this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Pending home sales fell 2.5% in November on rising mortgage rates and tight supply, according to the National Association of Realtors. They forecast existing home sales to hit just over 5.5 million in 2017, which works out to be a 10 year high. NAR anticipates that increasing wages will offset some of the problems with affordability.
Same store sales increased 2.1% last week according to Johnson Redbook. Despite the increases in consumer confidence indices, it doesn’t appear to be translating into actual buying.
Bob Shiller (of Case-Shiller fame) thinks that next year could usher in a housing boom, provided some regulatory relief happens. Initially, he thinks that rising rates could accelerate home purchases, as buyers realize that waiting will mean higher house prices and higher rates.
House flippers are making a comeback as well. The number of house flippers has reached a 9 year high, and average profits are up to 61k from 19k at the bottom of the market. About 1/3 are financed with debt, the highest level in 8 years. The market for home flipping loans is still relatively small compared to the vanilla home loan market, but it is expected to reach almost $50 billion this year. The banks don’t seem to be making these loans directly, but are lending to smaller finance companies that do. Since these loans are non-owner occupied, a lot of the post-crisis regulations don’t apply to them or the companies that make them. Rates are in the 7% – 12% range.
Zillow is predicting a modest slowdown in home price appreciation. They are forecasting a 0.7% increase in November, which works out to be a 5.6% increase YOY. Most analysts are looking for a 3% – 5% increase in house prices for 2017.
Here is a good summary of the various important housing charts, all in one place.
The key to improving housing and mortgage lending next year is to bring back the private label securitization market. You can see below that private label securitization is still way below pre-bubble levels. Increasing interest rates could actually be a help as the risk-reward ratios of home lending decrease, which will bring in more investor money. More regulatory clarity will help issuers.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
What year(s) were the last time the media “stepped up”?
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2001- Jan 19, 2008
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They have to be even more hostile to him than they already are?
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They live in this illusion that the 4th estate is the most important branch of government, and that the only explanation for Trump’s victory is that they didn’t do a good enough job. So they have to “step up” in obstructing Trump. Which is going to work even better than their efforts to get Hillary elected did.
Robert Reich things the pundits and the press basically have the power to impeach Trump. I think they may end up being disappointed.
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Apparently this is supposed to be a bad thing:
“The Coming Exodus of Career Civil Servants
Research shows many professional staffers leave when a new president takes power—especially one with whom they don’t agree.
Andrew McGill”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/the-coming-exodus-of-career-civil-servants/511562/
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Are there really people concerned about this?
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I am. because i need my contacts to stay put and answer my phone calls. but i’ll find new contacts. having lunch with one tomorrow. bahhahahaa.
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Strange bedfellows and all that:
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Trump is largely non-ideological, give all evidence of being at least superficially socially liberal (but willing to pander to evangelicals) and, most of all, cut deals, compromise, and do whatever to get things done and make things happen.
In other words, he’s what most Democrats have always claimed would be an ideal Republican politician. Yes, he might have different views, but he won’t be obstructionist: he’ll cut deals and work with politicians, regardless of politics, to accomplish political goals.
Just goes to show, people don’t know what they want.
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Really too bad about Carrie Fisher. Big fan. I guess, in the end, CP30was right.
They’ll be no escape for the princess this time.
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Or her mother. Or the guy who did the voice of Heat Miser and narrated the Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoons. Or the dude who wrote Watership Down.
I mean, granted, a lot of them were old. But Prince, Bowie, and everybody else? If you’re a pop culture geek, 2016 has been just brutal.
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I LOVE THIS POST AND COMMENTS!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/25/1614376/-Why-Trump-voters-are-not-welcome-in-my-house-this-holiday
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wow.
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Then, my company’s COO, a Chinese American, told me how his small children were distraught, and in tears that morning. Children in their preschool had bullied them with comments such as: “your father is going to be killed because he didn’t vote for Trump”, and “you are going to be kicked out of the country”.
Anyone believe that actually happened? I don’t.
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Lefties don’t even believe it, they know it’s just ghost stories.
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Pre-school bullying:
GIMMIE BLOX!!! GIMMIE LEGOS!!
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Not a chance that happened.
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Agree…no way that is a true story.
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“Children in their preschool had bullied them with comments such as: “your father is going to be killed because he didn’t vote for Trump”, and “you are going to be kicked out of the country”.”
If this happened, and I grant that it’s possible, I’d bet money those children have liberal parents and live in a liberal household. In other words, most of the fear-mongering about Trump is not coming from Trump supporters or conservative Never Trumpers, but liberals so dedicated to the narrative they are driving into in their kids. Most of the direct parent/terrified-child stories I have seen post-election were Hillary supporters who had terrified their children with stories of what a Trump presidency would mean.
In what kind of preschool are children not terrified of bullying anybody in this day and age? It’s like bringing a gun to school.
Tangent: that anybody is that terrified of who the president is speaks to a larger problem, but especially of Trump, who is almost entirely a superficial brand. It’s a culture of obsession with celebrities and reality shows that has created a world where supposedly serious people, the MSM, etc., thinks most of what is irrelevant nonsense from Trump actually poses an existential threat to all humanity.
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Man, if I could go back in time and vote for Trump, I think I would.
As far as the comments:
That’s a description of mental illness. It’s like disowning a child because you found out the didn’t vote for Clay Aikin when they called in on American Idol.
And continued to read the comments . . . and some people think we live in a bubble! 😛
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https://twitter.com/_Drew_McCoy_/status/814151094112780288
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Well, British fascist, Hitler, and Trump-lover Nigel Farage supports strong, sovereign states (and supported Brexit) for just that sort of reason. Clearly, a maniac.
Economic facts often seem to have a conservative bias, I notice. 😉
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Worth a read:
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Interesting observation:
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Case on regulators retaliating for exercise of free speech.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/12/28/interesting-supreme-court-petition-state-regulators-retaliated-against-financial-adviser-for-anti-obama-speech-and-for-ad-offering-100-towards-the-purchase-of-a-firearm-as-bonus
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Hell, I remember during the GM bankruptcy, obama (or one of his cabinet members) threatened the senior bondholders with “embarrassment” if they rejected the pre-packaged bankruptcy and wanted their day in court.
Of course “embarrassment” = intimidating your investors to withdraw their assets..
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How come Trump, whom I’m told is Hitler and who has surrounded himself with Nazi’s (I’m. looking at you a Steve Bannon) strongly supports Israel?
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I’ll tell you why, he’s diabolical!
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Or supporting Israel (or more specifically Netanyahu) is viewed as the new antisemitism.
I could actually see the left making that argument with a straight face.
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I’m sure there’s a Kos diary explaining just that.
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Vox actually had something smart to say on it:
“Kerry’s bombshell Israel speech is one of the most puzzling things I have seen in politics
Why divide Democrats and unite Republicans just when Trump is about to take over?
Updated by Matthew Yglesias
Dec 29, 2016, 8:00am EST ”
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/29/14102754/kerry-israel-speech
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why? because obama’s feeling were hurt. and we can’t have that.
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“Or supporting Israel (or more specifically Netanyahu) is viewed as the new antisemitism.”
I think this is right. Really, I think supporting the Israeli state is, in some quarters, looked at as the new antisemitism. Because nuance.
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by backing the RWNJ and the settlements, we are ensuring the destruction of the Israelis by inflaming the Palestinians. therefore, antisemitism.
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Jacobin gets it:
“With Friends Like Bannon
Dima Khalidi | 12.26
Trump’s administration will embolden the Right to harass, suppress, and silence any criticism of Israel.”
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/12/trump-zionism-israel-palestine-zoa-free-speech-sjp-activism/
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https://twitter.com/woke8yearold/status/815368717911597057
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I wonder what textbook she read on fascism.
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