Morning Report: Consumers are getting more constructive 9/8/16 on the economy

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2186.5 2.0
Eurostoxx Index 350.5 1.0
Oil (WTI) 46.4 0.9
US dollar index 85.7 -0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.54%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.52

Stocks are higher after the ECB left rates unchanged. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 259k, We have been below 300k (an important level) for 80 weeks now.

Consumer comfort increased to 44 last week, according to Bloomberg.

Wage inflation is evident only in certain pockets of the labor economy – tech workers, engineers, construction, and remains flattish in the less skilled sectors. Elsewhere, hours are being cut and we are seeing full-timers being relegated to part-time. Until we start seeing broad-based wage inflation, the Fed is going to move slow. Note there is a disconnect between the Fed heads and what the markets are saying regarding near-term rate hikes. The markets aren’t buying the hawkish language.

Consumers are getting somewhat more constructive on the economy, according to Fannie Mae. The number of people who think the economy is on the right track improved to 38% and the number of people who think the economy is on the wrong track fell to 52%. Given the weak data recently that could be a temporary blip.

8 Responses

  1. Re Aleppo-gate

    Guess Gary Johnson is starting to siphon too many votes away from hillary. The MSM was happy to leave him alone as long as he was splitting the GOP vote. Looks like the marching orders went out of High Command over the weekend, starting with WaPo hit piece trying to link the alt-right with Libertarianism.

    Liked by 1 person

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