Morning Report: Cracks appearing in the credit markets 11/18/15

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Housing starts fell from a 1.19 million average pace in September to a 1.06 million pace in October. Building Permits rose from 1.1 million to 1.15 million. Multifam starts (which is notoriously volatile) drove the decline.

Mortgage Applications rose 6.2% last week as purchases rose 11.9% and refis rose 2.3%.

We will get the FOMC minutes from the October meeting around 2:00 pm today. Not expecting any big bond market moves from it, but I wouldn’t rule anything out. Here is a rundown on what the Street is looking for.

Investors are starting to balk at the debt issues. The latest one was the financing for the Veritas / Symantec deal. Interestingly, the first indication we had a problem during the financial crisis was a deal-related bond issue that was unsold. Not predicting another 2008, but just be aware.

We are starting to see an increase in consumer credit defaults. Auto loan financing has gotten absolutely ridiculous, with companies offering 8 year car loans at 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates. Yet another unintended consequence of ZIRP. You can’t blame consumers for taking the money – eventually all of this central bank money printing will make its way into the inflation numbers.

FHA is trying to ease rules to financing condos. Affordable housing advocates have been pushing for these changes.. Separately, Obama has threatened to veto legislation that would increase lender protections for non-QM loans. Guess FHA lending is going nowhere as the leader in low – income / low downpayment financing.

21 Responses

  1. Frist!!

    Nothing else, I’m busy getting a pedicure. So awesome.


  2. How did it come to pass that the only religion the left likes is Islam?

    Are they just being contrary? I mean Islam has the least in common with leftist theology regarding gays, etc…


  3. Islam is derived from the Arabic root “Salema”: peace, purity, submission and obedience.

    that’s batting for the cycle.


  4. Like

  5. He must think if you take measures to protect yourselves from terrorism, then the terrorists have won…


  6. I think it is more likely that the left holds a special contempt for Judeo-Christian centered religions than that they hold a special regard for Islam.

    I guess they prefer religions that throw gays off buildings over ones that simply deny them their baking services under certain circumstances.


  7. After 7 years you would think I’d be used to it, but I never stop being surprised at what a petty, immature, intellectually unserious, and unthinking person Obama is.

    He is the leftist equivalent of an Ann Coulter presidency…


  8. for all the talk on “punching down”: they know that the difference between a real threat and a pretend one.


    • nova:

      for all the talk on “punching down”: they know that the difference between a real threat and a pretend one.

      Well said. Bullies generally only victimize those who they know can’t or won’t fight back.


    • McWing:

      Arguably one of the worst US presidents.

      I don’t know if he was a racist, but even if so, surely that is the least of the reasons for Princeton to be ashamed of its association with him.


  9. Progressive moral preening is my favorite preening.


  10. More of Michi’s bagger bigots.


  11. How did it come to pass that the only religion the left likes is Islam?

    I don’t particularly like any of them, but if I had to choose one it would be reform Judaism.


    • McWing (from the article):

      The gathering was part of a larger effort between Comcast Corporation, NBC Universal and the Hispanic Leadership Organization. The three organizations have a “memorandum of understanding” that says Comcast and NBCU will make serious efforts to diversify its staff.

      The agreement dictates that Comcast will establish “diversity advisory councils” and appoint Hispanics to its board of directors. The Hispanic Caucus has been pushing Comcast — which attempted unsuccessfully to merge with Time Warner Cable last year, a move that was opposed by many Latino lawmakers — to hire more people of color for on- and off-air positions.

      Proving that anyone who says these university snowflakes causing such craziness on campus will have a difficult time adjusting when they get out into the “real world” are dead wrong. The “real world” is slowly being taken over by the absurdities (eg “diversity advisory councils”) that have been standard in academia for a long time.


  12. Media companies perhaps, but not everywhere.. I suspect media companies get pushed hard by the activist left because they can organize boycotts of their advertisers.

    Which partly explains why viewership is falling – TV is becoming more what a busybodies in DC think you should be encouraged to watch. (You WILL watch the WNBA and you WILL like it!)


  13. My favorite line,

    “We love the Hispanic community…Yo hablo español,” Turness said, according to lawmakers present.

    Some of my best friends are black.


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