Stocks are unchanged this morning as there is very little in the way of economic data / earnings to move markets. Bonds and MBS are down small.
The trade deficit widened to 48 billion in August as the strong dollar cuts exports and increases imports.
The IMF cut is global growth estimate to 3.1% from 3.3%. Blame weak commodity prices.
Economic Optimism improved markedly according to Investors Business Daily and TIPP Online. Many of these consumer confidence indices are merely inverse gasoline price indices. Falling gasoline prices makes people happy.
Home prices rose almost 7% in August on a year-over-year basis, according to CoreLogic. They are forecasting home price appreciation around 4.3% over the next year.
Bill Gross sees another 10% downside in stocks and is recommending sitting in cash for a while. His point is that corporate profits are flatlining as commodity prices hurt earnings in the energy patch and the strong dollar hurts manufacturers. Expect more layoffs in the energy sector. Bill Gross called the Chinese sell-off earlier this year as well as the German Bund sell off.
TRID is expected to delay closings as people get adjusted to the new rules. CFPB Chairman Richard Cordray says the agency will give lenders who are making good-faith efforts to comply with the new rules a break: “Nobody believes that market participants are going to be trying to abuse consumers here; they’re trying to change their systems. So we’ll be diagnostic and corrective, not punitive, and there will be time for them to work to get it right and not be perfect on the first day,” said Cordray. We’ll see if that actually happens.
What to the French do well? Food, lifestyle, and labor strife. Propose job cuts and you are likely to get the shirt ripped off your back by an angry mob.
Filed under: Morning Report |