Morning Report: Dodd-Frank 5 years on 7/20/15

Stocks are higher this morning after Greece made a payment to the ECB and re-opened its banks. Bonds and MBS are down small.

There is very little data this week – nothing today and tomorrow. We will get existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Friday. Earnings season is in full swing and we will hear from heavyweights like Apple and IBM this week. Now that Greece and Chinese stocks seem to be stabilizing, I could see a gentle drift up in interest rates throughout the week.

Good housing numbers out of Census on Friday, with housing starts hitting 1.17 million and building permits hitting 1.34 million. Building Permits have risen by 200 units or so over the past two months, which portends an end to the tight supply we have been seeing in many real estate markets, which is causing bidding wars in some areas. The big improvement is largely in the Northeast, where permits are finally surpassing the levels in the West.

Chart: Building Permits: 1990 – Present

Interview with Chris Dodd and Barney Frank on Dodd-Frank 5 years later. Short summary: Dodd Frank is damn near perfect. A counter-take on it. Dodd-Frank did not end TBTF (too big to fail), however it does restrict credit, especially in mortgage banking (Barney Frank thinks D/F didn’t go far enough).

One of the unintended consequences of Dodd-Frank has been the pullback in liquidity in Treasury and corporate bond markets. Since Dodd-Frank prohibits proprietary trading, market-making has been pulled back as well, making Treasury markets more volatile, and according to studies has raised the interest rate the government pays on bonds by about 13 basis points or so. The side effect of this is that we will have more days like October 15, where Treasuries traded in a 36 basis point range as the market hit an air pocket during the day. What does this mean for LOs? Floating is going to be more dangerous.

38 Responses

  1. Bernie Sanders, the socialist candidate, was shouted down by a crowd of Ds in Phoenix.

    I have to wonder whether it was his message or HRC activists playing the Trotskyite roles of seeding the crowd with discontent that caused the disruption.

    It would be interesting if it were either.

    FRIST?

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  2. Actually the #BernieSoBlack Twitter feed was hilarious, with people making jokes about Bernie actually being the one who helped George and Louise move, and earnest SJWs admonishing everyone.. Truly a spectacle.

    About as good as having to apologize for saying #AllLivesMatter.

    It pisses me off to no end that the GOP can’t get Donald Fucking Trump out of the way and let the SJW left show their true colors.

    If the GOP can’t handle Trump, there is no way they are going to be able to handle Hillary and the media. No fucking way.

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  3. @markinaustin: “Bernie Sanders, the socialist candidate, was shouted down by a crowd of Ds in Phoenix.”

    Either HRC activists, or just True Believers . . . or other folks fairly deep into Democratic Party politics who are offended by Bernie running because of his signature, Trump-like sin: he cannot win the general, so they are angry that he would dare try to get the nomination.

    Whoever it was, it’s not run-of-the-mill liberals.

    @brent: “If the GOP can’t handle Trump, there is no way they are going to be able to handle Hillary and the media. No fucking way.”

    The GOP is worthless. Especially when it comes to the presidency. I give you Dubya’s 2000 non-election (against Gore, who invented the Internet and whose relationship with Tipper was the basis of love story, and whose performance in the first debate was horrendous with the sighing and eye-rolling, he was acting like a petulant 5 year old . . . and he won the popular vote!). Then I give you McCain, who would have lost even more soundly if not for Palin on the ticket (sorry, but it’s true) . . . then Romney (and not much control over Trump then, either, they’re just lucky he bailed earlier).

    They had no idea how to handle Perot in 1992 for that matter. And then there was Bob Dole in 1996 . . . spoiled by Reagan. Stung by Nixon. Still haven’t recovered.

    The GOP has been doing well in the midterms. There seems to be some strong ability to GoTV and to target campaigns district-by-district, but their ability/luck seems to wan significantly when it’s a national race.

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  4. Agreed, the Republican Party died sometime around ’95 and really stink up the place in the ‘2000’s. Their only worthwhile achievement has been the sequester.

    Don’t kid yourself Brent, Trump’s (and Perot) success is a result of a corrupt and dead party that hates it’s base, they are the base’s way of hating back.

    That being said, do you really think the media would focus on fault lines among D’s but for Trump? I don’t, some other issue would come up.

    All will be well though, Jeb will get the nomination and then will lose!😀

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  5. They get crushed on the “cares about people like me question”
    and for some reason, that’s important to people.

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  6. They get crushed on social issues. The media IS populated by SJWs who are 100% in lockstep with the left on abortion, gay marriage, etc.

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  7. “They get crushed on the “cares about people like me question”
    and for some reason, that’s important to people.”

    Which is stupid. Because the expectation that politicians who are removed from you in terms of geography, social class, resources, environment, context and for whom you are not even an abstract thought–the expectation they would care about you or people like you is idiotic. None of them care about us. Nor should we expect them to.

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  8. @McWing: “That being said, do you really think the media would focus on fault lines among D’s but for Trump? I don’t, some other issue would come up.”

    Sure they would. It’s interesting news. And largely irrelevant until we’re about 6 months away from the actual election. We start getting that close, they start throwing Sanders the hard questions about how if a Republican gets elected because he causes Hillary so much trouble, how would he sleep at night? He’d start getting the Nader treatment. And remember, Nader was interesting and nobody was asking him if he was afraid his independent candidacy might cost the Democrats the election a year out. When it came down to the wire, it was the only question the MSM had for Nader: how will you live with yourself if you’re vote is the difference between a Democrat or a Republican in the Whitehouse?

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  9. “The media IS populated by SJWs who are 100% in lockstep with the left on abortion, gay marriage, etc.”

    i’d start running ads with the outbursts at these D events.

    Like

  10. Luckily, my little hamlet in upper Westchester County might be immune, but I wouldn’t want to live in Scarsdale.

    obama is a SJW executing his plan.

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  11. i’m trying to figure out how this would play out in Fairfax. of course, my local school — which is centered in my neighborhood — is about 60% free lunch and about 52% limited English. and it’s only 22% white (54% hispanic, 2% black). that completely divorced from the demographics of the neighborhood.

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  12. This is how Bernie can solidify the AA vote.

    Like

  13. This is perfect:

    “Dara Lind:So I assume your mentions were an absolute disaster area at that point.

    Roderick Morrow:Sort of. The thing about the Bernie Sanders fans is while they’re very obtuse and they don’t listen, they are more polite than the people who just call you the n-word or a racial slur or something. It’s more like that passive-aggressive “We’re on the same side, man!” where clearly they don’t want you to talk about anything that their candidate can do better, but they do want you to just vote for him.”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/7/20/9005855/black-twitter-bernie-sanders

    Supporting Bernie Sanders – one step away from racial slurs.

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  14. @McWing: “The Health Plan is Oregon’s Medicaid program, and as hundreds of thousands of people became newly eligible last year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, most of them signed up. In the first year, enrollment was 73 percent higher than anticipated, according to data from the Oregon Health Authority.”

    More Republican lies. Obamacare has saved money and extended lives for everyone everywhere. It is known.

    Like

  15. In the first year, enrollment was 73 percent higher than anticipated, according to data from the Oregon Health Authority.

    Woodwork Effect.

    Like

    • Vox discovers, although still doesn’t seem to quite grasp, why Roe has been such a destructive force.

      Taken together, our poll and my ensuing interviews changed how I saw Americans’ opinions on abortion. In most of my coverage, I find it rare to see leaders of the pro-life and pro-choice movements having a productive conversation. When put into debate, they often talk past each other. This makes sense: these are the people who exist at the more polarized ends of the issue.

      But I could easily see the people I interviewed — people like David King and Elaine Bledsoe and Meghann August — having a productive discussion about how our country regulates abortion. It’s not hard for me to envision these people, from diverse backgrounds and with significantly different views on abortion, still finding space where they agree. They might get behind similar abortion laws — ones that protected women from aggressive protesters, for example — in a way I could never see Washington lobbying groups collaborating.

      These aren’t the voices that set abortion policy; they don’t vote on laws or run lobbying campaigns. But they do live under those laws — and even though they come from different backgrounds and live in different states and hold different views, they have way more in common with one another than most of us realize.

      http://www.vox.com/a/abortion-decision-statistics-opinions

      Like

  16. if it’s woodwork effect, those new enrollees are not at the 100% match. and that only has one more year left anyway. OR has an FMAP of about 65%. so the state has to cover 35%.

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  17. It’s a feature, not a bug.

    Luckily, we know Medicaid is beneficial cause science tells us so.

    http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1212321

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  18. who are you who is so wise in the ways of science

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  19. I’m just a dude who digs science, yo.

    I blame AGW.

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  20. Do the videos and obvious tissue sales bother you yello?

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    • McWing:

      Do the videos and obvious tissue sales bother you yello?

      From the perspective of the pro-abortion crowd, I can’t imagine why it would. If one has already convinced oneself that there are no moral problems with killing an unborn baby, it’s hard to see what might be wrong with harvesting the parts of the baby you’ve just killed, especially in the name of “science”.

      It seems to me these revelations represent more of a political than a moral problem for PP and its ardent supporters. Given the number of people who accept the existence legal access to abortion despite having personal qualms about it (which I suspect is a lot of people), any story that appeals to those qualms is a danger, especially to PP’s government subsidies. PP and its defenders now face the task of how to distract attention away from the reality of what PP is doing. Snarky non-sequiturs about free markets probably would be counterproductive towards this end, and I don’t see the worn out “War on Women” rhetoric doing much good, so expect to see a variation of the “R’s are anti-science” meme get trotted out soon.

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  21. @yellojkt: “A new undercover video of Planned Parenthood, negotiating over its sale of harvested body parts from abortions.
    I thought conservatives were in favor of market forces.”

    Libertarians are in favor of unrestricted markets (sell your own kidneys if you need some cash!) moreso than conservatives, for whom natural rights and moral traps come into the picture. Same reason they’d be against the market dictating the availability of prostitution or euthanasia.

    Like

  22. Can we at least agree that we should be able to sell ohr own organs?

    Like

    • The Freakonomics podcast had a very recent episode where it discussed in great detail the donor matching market for kidneys. You can trade kidneys, just not sell them for cash. At least not in the US. And some of the trades are pretty convoluted.

      http://freakonomics.com/2015/06/17/make-me-a-match-a-new-freakonomics-radio-episode/

      There are places in the Philippines where kidney harvesting is a cottage industry.

      http://www.globalresearch.ca/a-suitable-donor-harvesting-kidneys-in-the-philippines/5420238

      Like

      • yello:

        There are places in the Philippines where kidney harvesting is a cottage industry.

        How about the harvesting of unborn-baby parts? Any Planned Parenthood execs looking to buy a Lamborghini in Manila?

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        • Is that a yes, yello?

          You’re insistence on the binary paradigm is often frustrating because you seem unable to evaluate the answer you are given.

          Can we at least agree that we should be able to sell ohr own organs?

          Cash in quick because that market will collapse once they start growing organs in a vat.

          Any Planned Parenthood execs looking to buy a Lamborghini in Manila?

          At the going rate of $7,000 an adult kidney, those fetal organs better be able to command a better price if one is going to get Lamborghinis off of them. Or there needs to be huge volumes involved. I’d like to see a serious article about the economics of this supply chain. At what stage is the money being made? Who is buying them and what value are they creating with them? Does the original donor have any intellectual property rights? Presumably not, based on the Henrietta Lacks story.

          The biggest qualm I have with dealing in fetal organs is the moral hazard it creates for the donors particularly since the market for live babies is also highly regulated to the point of market distortion.

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        • yello:

          I’d like to see a serious article about the economics of this supply chain.

          Not likely to happen. The MSM is doing its utmost to ignore this topic, not enlighten anyone about it.

          The biggest qualm I have with dealing in fetal organs is the moral hazard it creates for the donors…

          Uh….the donors are dead, yello. Killed, in fact. Hard to see quite what “moral hazard” is being created for the donors.

          Like

    • McWing:

      Can we at least agree that we should be able to sell ohr own organs?

      Sure.

      Like

  23. Is that a yes, yello?

    Like

  24. Agreed, the biggest problem with your answer is my insistence on a binary paradigm.

    Like

    • Imagine living with this guy.

      Q: Honey, would you like steak for dinner?

      A: I recently heard a podcast in which several food critics were discussing the various steak houses in New York City. Some are a lot more expensive than others. Kobe beef from Japan is especially expensive.

      Q: Um…is that a yes or a no?

      A: Your insistence on the binary paradigm is often frustrating because you seem unable to evaluate the answer you are given.

      Like

  25. I just got back from vacationing in Spain and they seem to have a much more relaxed attitude towards some things, and I’m not talking about just the topless beaches.

    http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p156/yellojkt/Baby%20Menu_zpsflc4jiwo.jpgModest Proposal Menu

    Jonathan Swift was ahead of his time.

    Like

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