Morning Report – Fannie Mae G fee review – much ado about nothing 4/20/15

Markets are higher this morning on overseas strength. Bonds and MBS are flattish.

This week doesn’t have any data which will move the bond market, but we do have some important numbers nonetheless. On Wednesday, we will get existing home sales and the FHFA House Price Index. On Thursday, we will get New Home Sales. Finally, we will get earnings from Pulte an D.R. Horton. Hopefully their comments will help reconcile the strong builder sentiment with the lousy housing starts numbers.

Note that Pulte is saying that the housing market remains strong, despite the “volatile” numbers. They see high single digit growth in housing. M&A is hot: buy building product stocks.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -.42 in March, giving further ammo to the argument that the deceleration that started in January and February was not simply weather driven. The 3 month moving average, which is a more stable, indicates that the economy is operating below its historical trend.

William Dudley is speaking at the Bloomberg Americas Monetary Summit this morning. His main points – the Fed will be data-dependent (boilerplate), and the Fed is cognizant of the risks or liftoff on emerging markets. Even if rates do go up, monetary policy will still be easy. That said, ECB and BOJ easing does make credit conditions more supportive. The stock market is blithely assuming that the economy will handle rate hikes as easily as it handled the end of QE and is therefore vulnerable, IMO.

The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee fee review is finished, and it looks like not much is going to change. The 25 basis point adverse delivery fee is gone, but there are new fees imposed, so it looks to be more or less a wash. Borrowers with lower credit are going to pay slightly less, while high bal, investment properties, and cash out refis will become slightly more expensive.

Jon Corzine (of MF Global fame) is considering starting a hedge fund. Proving you can get away with anything in this country if you are politically connected.

One Response

  1. http://ww2flyover.org/

    May 8 in DC.

    Like

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