Morning Report – Juno Edition 1/26/15

Markets are down small as a historic snowstorm bears down on the Northeast. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The Northeast is bracing for a historic snowstorm to start today and go through Tuesday night. NYC is expected to get up to 2 feet, while Boston could get close to 3 feet. The evening commute will probably start around noon today, as the National Weather Service has a blizzard warning for the tri state area beginning at 1:00 pm today. Expect to see a touch more volatility in the markets as desks will be understaffed for the next couple of days.

Aside from the snowstorm, we have some important data this week, with the FOMC meeting and also Q4 GDP on Friday. The January FOMC meeting should not have any economic projections and I don’t anticipate anything market moving to come out of the press release, but you never know. The Street is forecasting +3.0% on the advance estimate for Q4 GDP.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton announced better-than-expected earnings this morning. Sales, orders, and backlog are up smartly. Analysts will be most concerned about the Texas housing market. The stock is up a buck as of now. The conference call begins at 10:00 am. Note that both Lennar and KB waited until the conference call to disclose poor Q1 forecasts, so don’t feel the need to lift any Horton quite yet.

34 Responses

  1. Greece should turn out well:

    “Syriza was set up by several different organizations in 2004, as an electoral alliance. Its biggest component was Alexis Tsipras’s party Synaspismos — initially the Coalition of the Left and Progress, and eventually renamed the Coalition of the Left and of the Movements — which had existed as a distinct party since 1991. It emerged from a series of splits in the Communist movement.

    On the other hand, Syriza also comprises much smaller formations. Some of these came out of the old Greek far left. In particular, the Communist Organization of Greece (KOE), one the country’s main Maoist groups. This organization had three members of parliament (MPs) elected in May 2012. That’s also true of the Internationalist Workers’ Left (DEA), which is from a Trotskyist tradition, as well as other groups mostly of a Communist background. For example, the Renewing Communist Ecological Left (AKOA), which came out of the old Communist Party (Interior).

    The Syriza coalition was founded in 2004, and at first it had what we might call relatively modest successes. Nevertheless it managed to get into parliament, overcoming the 3 percent minimum threshold. To cut a long story short, Syriza resulted from a relatively complex recomposition of the Greek radical left.”



    “I get run out of my job and she gets a golden parachute for (expletive) veterans?” Honl asked incredulously.


    • Total flop of a storm. NYC and surrounding areas paralyzed not by snow, but by the panic of politicians. 5 inches of snow and trains and roads still shut down. Joke.


  3. So, you didn’t have to resort to canabilism?


  4. And yet if they hadn’t shut things down and a foot or more had fallen people would have been calling for heads to roll. Snow storms are a no-win situation.

    You were the one that, from what I heard on the radio this morning, who was the most likely to be hit (we got a bare dusting in Baltimore). Time to put the TP and water back into storage!


    • Mich:

      And yet if they hadn’t shut things down and a foot or more had fallen people would have been calling for heads to roll.

      Not sure why that would be the case. If roads are impassable or trains can’t run because there is actually too much snow, it’s hard to sensibly blame politicians. But if they are impassable because the politicians are panicked that they might become impassable and people are too stupid for their own good to know better and so are prevented from using the roads/trains regardless of the actual snowfall, whose fault is it other than politicians?


  5. Michael Mann blamed the storm fizzle on AGW.

    Mystery solved.


  6. Like

  7. There you go again, McWing.

    As much as 28.5 inches of snow has fallen on Long Island. Totals in Suffolk County, N.Y., as of 10:05 a.m.:

    Orient — 28.5 inches
    Mattituck — 24.8 inches
    Hampton Bays — 24 inches
    Medford — 22.3 inches
    Baiting Hollow — 22 inches
    Islip Airport — 20.9 inches

    I wouldn’t classify over two feet of snow on Long Island as “fizzle”. But whatevs (to quote Brent).


  8. What confirms AGW more, a Snownado fizzle or Snownado F/5?


  9. The GOP-led Congress would likely act on a short-term legislative fix to the health care law that would allow federal subsidies to continue flowing through the federal exchanges up to a set date, albeit in exchange for certain concessions from Democrats in the event that the Supreme Court rules against the administration in King v. Burwell, several sources are suggesting.

    On Friday, both Joe Antos, health care scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, and Judy Feder, a former Clinton staffer and public policy professor at Georgetown University, agreed that the government has to find some type of “workaround” if the administration loses in King v. Burwell, for which oral arguments are set to begin March 4. And on Monday, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) said in an opinion piece that if the Supreme Court rules against the subsidies,

    “Obama would likely push Republicans to pass a simple technical ‘fix’ that would change the language of the statute to allow for subsidies to be used toward purchasing coverage on the federal exchange.” Barrasso said he doesn’t see a permanent measure passing but suggested a temporary fix was possible if the president made some concessions.

    Republicans are likely to demand that Obama agree on changes to the law that would end the individual mandate and other provisions widely disliked by the GOP in exchange for a “temporary restoration of the subsidies,” Barrasso told the Examiner.


  10. @NoVA and jnc:

    You really need to click on the story to see the mug shot. A picture is worth a thousand words. . .

    A drunk Arlington man tried to kiss his Uber driver over the weekend and, when she resisted, allegedly grabbed her scarf and knocked a phone out of her hand to prevent her from calling the cops. The driver escaped by jumping out of her non-moving vehicle, according to Arlington County police.

    The incident occurred about 6 p.m. Saturday in the 2200 block of South Garfield Street in south Arlington. first reported the incident.

    The man, 31-year-old Richard Hilliard, lives nearby and walked home with the Uber driver’s phone in hand. Hilliard left the phone on the front steps of his house, and a witness, who had reportedly followed him home, recovered it. Hilliard was arrested at his house, and police say he tried to kick out the police vehicle’s rear window numerous times while being transported.


  11. ah, Arlington.


  12. And the great thing about Uber is that there’s a perfect computer trail available as evidence.

    Edit: What I really wanted to see though was a picture of the driver. Need to determine if it was worth going to jail for.


  13. What I really wanted to see though was a picture of the driver

    Uber porn! 😀


  14. This should be entertaining

    “Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Tuesday appointed a man who calls himself a “libertarian Marxist” as his new finance minister.”


  15. Still bet the EU capitulates and writes off a huge chunk of Greek debt to maintain the fiction, er Euro.


  16. Scott, I think it’s the old left libertarian perspective being referenced. This was an interesting read:


    • jnc:

      This was an interesting read:

      I read it. It was interesting, but ultimately, I think, nonsense. The idea that the place is “boss-less” is almost certainly an illusion. Clearly someone is doing the hiring, and someone manages the vaguely defined peer review process that determines pay. That someone is the boss. The boss may foster a very flat organization and an environment in which employees are encouraged act freely to pursue their own goals, but he’s still the boss.


  17. “himself a “libertarian Marxist” as his new finance minister.””

    hey, i think I know that guy. what could go wrong.


  18. nice to see the walk back of the 529 nonsense.


    • Kevin Williamson on the NYC blizzard that wasn’t and the religion of climate change in general.

      In that sense, New York’s response was in miniature what the global-warming alarmists would have us do on a planetary scale: adopt invasive, burdensome, and expensive measures against expectations of catastrophe that are rooted in a good deal less certainty than they’d have you believe. Like Andrew Stuttaford, I am something of a global-warming lukewarmer; even if we take at face value the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change et al., most of the evidence points toward adaptation and mitigation as the wiser course of action — one that is more likely to be effective than extreme economic changes among the handful of advanced countries that are actually likely to carry through on any emissions promises, and one that hedges the possibility that making radical, expensive, quality-of-life-lowering changes today might in the century hence prove either ineffective or unnecessary. This course of action also relieves the world of the unpleasantness of being put under the fat and greasy thumb of self-interested politicians who are interested in accumulating vast amounts of power to impose top-down economic policy under the cover of a global emergency.

      If you happen to be a power-hungry politician, a state of emergency is a very useful thing. Which is, of course, why the climate-change panic is so attractive to teapot totalitarians like Bill de Blasio, and why there is neither a warm day nor a cold day — and not a sparrow that falls — that is inconsistent with their theology.


  19. @McWing: “So, you didn’t have to resort to canabilism?”

    I did, and the weather was perfectly fine down here. But you can never be too prepared, that’s what I say.


  20. @McWing: “It’s a one-off! AGW science is Rock.Fucking.Solid.”

    Anything is rock solid when you get to massage the numbers until they say what you want them to.

    The thing about AGW is . . . there is a climate. Stuff does happen. There is weather. There are temperatures. The planet gets hotter and colder and could potentially do so to extreme degrees in any given century or millennia.

    AGW is a quasi-religious attempt to make humans a primary causal factor, ala “the flood that killed out crops mean the gods are displeased and require the sacrifice of a virgin . . . or burnt offerings, I’m not sure which, best do both”.


  21. ScottC: ““Libertarian Marxist” = a very confused human being”

    They are folks who want everybody to make the independent choice to adopt a communal lifestyle. Basically, they want a form of Communism where everybody is naturally a communist. And so everybody does their share and nobody consumes more than they need and everything just sort of works out. Alas, human nature makes such a thing impossible. Even libertarian marxists, if objectively analyzed by a 3rd party, would turn out to take more than they objectively need and do less than they objectively could. The fact that they disagree with this objective assessment not withstanding.


  22. @ScottC: “But there is no uncertainty regarding AGW, of course. On that, at least, the science is “settled”.”

    For almost 20 years, it’s been an established fact that comparing “weather” to “climate” demonstrates incurable ignorance, for all right-thinking people know that there is no similarity between the two, ever, and never will be.

    Not withstanding the fact that the climate models don’t ever accurately predict anything, and have not. Or, more pointedly, for every modestly accurate prediction there are 100 ones that don’t pan out, and even the accurate predictions do nothing to establish causality.


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