Morning Report – CoreLogic 2015 Housing forecast 1/7/15

Posted on January 7, 2015 by Brent Nyitray

Markets are higher this morning as world equity markets recover and global bond markets take a breather. Bonds and MBS are down

Mortgage Applications rose 11.1% last week, with purchases rising 4.5% and refis increasing 16%. The refi index is bouncing back from a highly depressed Christmas week level, so don’t break out the champagne quite yet. That said, the last time rates were around here, home prices were a lot lower. Cash out refis to pay down credit card debt and HELOCs will be attractive to many borrowers.

Was yesterday’s intraday low of 1.88% on the 10 year a capitulation low? Not sure yet. Remember, the action is being driven by European economic weakness and the prospect of more QE at the ECB. We are just being taken along for the ride. Which means that this gift may be fleeting.

From the recent ISM and factory order data, it looks like things slowed down a bit in December. Do not look for another 5% print on Q4 GDP – most strategists are looking at a growth rate in the mid 2s.

The ADP employment survey reports that 241k jobs were created in December, more or less in line with the Street expectations for Friday’s payroll number. I am hearing anecdotally that the normal seasonal (post-holiday) layoffs are not happening this year as employers hold on to people in anticipation of growth. Remember, the number to watch on Friday is average weekly earnings – that is the most important number.

CoreLogic is forecasting home sales will increase 9% in 2015, housing starts will increase 14% and home price appreciation will moderate…The big story? Employment growth in the Millennial age cohort, which will herald the return of the first time homebuyer.

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19 Responses

  2. novahockey, on January 7, 2015 at 11:39 am said:

    Like

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  4. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 12:53 pm said:

    Sigh. Yes, they are juiceboxers:

    “Sherry Glied and Claudia Solis-Rosman have shown that while working slightly more than 40 hours is common, working slightly more than 30 hours is rare. In other words, few workers are at risk of having hours slashed from 31 per week to 29, but many could be cut back from 41 to 39.”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/1/7/7508647/gop-obamacare-bill-deficit

    Well maybe that’s because in the past there was no government mandated threshold at 30 hours.

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  5. novahockey, on January 7, 2015 at 12:58 pm said:

    *facepalm*

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  6. novahockey, on January 7, 2015 at 1:16 pm said:

    might be vote in the House under suspension to roll back the Volker rule

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    • ScottC, on January 7, 2015 at 1:24 pm said:

      nova:

      might be vote in the House under suspension to roll back the Volker rule

      I had a meeting literally this morning on how we are going to confirm to regulators that we are in compliance with Volker.

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  7. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 1:28 pm said:

    Ezra truly is an idiot. He’s gone downhill

    “These murders can’t be explained by a close read of an editorial product, and they needn’t be condemned on free speech grounds. They can only be explained by the madness of the perpetrators, who did something horrible and evil that almost no human beings anywhere ever do, and the condemnation doesn’t need to be any more complex than saying unprovoked mass slaughter is wrong.”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/1/7/7509265/charlie-hebdo-cartoons

    No, this isn’t a random shooting, and no this isn’t something that “that almost no human beings anywhere ever do”. If anything, killing people you don’t agree with has defined the human condition for almost all of it’s existence. Tolerance for other views is the recent exception and solely due to the prevalence Western values. No, Ezra, all cultures aren’t equal.

    Salmon Rushdie is much better, although the incident is still less about religion in general than one or two in particular.

    http://time.com/3657541/charlie-hebdo-paris-terror-attack-salman-rushdie/

    Looking forward to Bill Maher this Friday.

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  8. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 1:31 pm said:

    “ScottC, on January 7, 2015 at 1:26 pm said:

    jnc:

    Sigh. Yes, they are juiceboxers:

    WaPo’s decision not to invest in Ezra making more and more sense.”

    Ezra was much better when he had a editor. Now, there’s no adult in charge over there. They all have editorial titles on the masthead (along with their funny titles because that’s how millennials roll).

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  9. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 1:37 pm said:

    Brent you hear about this previously?

    “Obama to announce lower fees for a mortgage that’s popular with first-time buyers
    By Dina El Boghdady
    January 7 at 12:17 PM”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/07/obama-to-announce-lower-fees-for-a-mortgage-thats-popular-with-first-time-buyers/?hpid=z4

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    • ScottC, on January 7, 2015 at 2:09 pm said:

      jnc:

      Obama to announce lower fees for a mortgage that’s popular with first-time buyers

      Yes, Obama, encourage more people to buy real estate in order to inflate the housing market. Especially with D/F now protecting us all from the economy-collapsing effects of the demon derivatives market, what could possibly go wrong?

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  10. novahockey, on January 7, 2015 at 2:40 pm said:

    bill went down. didn’t get 2/3rds

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  11. novahockey, on January 7, 2015 at 2:46 pm said:

    but it got 276 votes. so the votes are there to pass

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  12. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 4:08 pm said:

    The Post censored the actual execution due to the graphic content. I think that’s wrong.

    The graphic content is essential to understanding the true nature of the incident.

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  13. jnc4p, on January 7, 2015 at 6:48 pm said:

    Salon actually has a good piece on the Paris shootings:

    “But — and this is no knock on Charlie Hebdo, whose speech rights I support and whose courage I admire — you have to wonder how long and deep this commitment to liberty of expression really is. It’s easy to champion a satirist’s freedom to offend somebody else. One man’s blasphemy is another woman’s rape joke is yet another person’s tasteless racism parody is still another’s unpatriotic slur.
    …
    One of the few equivocal responses to the Paris killings I encountered online earlier today came from a Muslim who argued that, while the violence was wrong, it would never have occurred if the French government hadn’t failed to “punish” Charlie Hebdo for its “hate speech.”

    Institutional censorship by the powerful still occurs, of course, all over the world, but this is a different beast. The claim that some things, particularly humorously insulting things, shouldn’t be said because they injure a disadvantaged group has become common. Most such groups — some of whom aren’t even really disadvantaged, like the War on Christmas brigade — would never resort to violence. But they don’t hesitate to apply some form of legal, economic or P.R. pressure, from persuading advertisers to boycotting a publication that dares to mock “gamers” to calling for the cancellation of a satirical TV show when its satire misfires.”

    http://www.salon.com/2015/01/08/the_war_on_laughter_what_the_charlie_hebdo_attacks_reveal_about_our_thorny_relationship_with_satire/

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