Morning Report – Mortgage Delinquencies lowest since early 2008 11/21/14

Markets are higher this morning after China cut interest rates. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Delinquencies dropped again to 5.44% of all loans, according to Black Knight Financial Services. They are still elevated, but have quite a bit from their high of around 10%. Prior to the the bust, a typical delinquency number was about 4.5%.

Foreclosure starts declined 10% in October, and are down 31% year-over-year. Foreclosure inventory is down 33% YOY and is at the lowest level since February 2008.

The CFPB is coming down on lenders who ask too many questions about disability income in the verification process.

25 Responses

  1. anyone else in a foul mood today?

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  2. For those who think POTUS has violated the Constitution re immigration, in what way(s) has he done so. If it’s enforcement discretion, is it the scope of it? Is it the work permit issuing? Doesn’t that go with discretion? Let’s say a bunch of Copts come here illegally because of condition in Egypt and President Cruz decides to not deport them, Can’t he allow them work permits so they’re less of a burden financially? If that’s ok, then we’re just complaining about scope, right?

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    • McWing:

      If it’s enforcement discretion, is it the scope of it? Is it the work permit issuing?

      Both. It seems to me that “discretion” can be legitimately used in two ways, neither of which applies to what Obama has done.

      First, discretion can be applied on an individual, case-by-case basis, in order to weigh the unique circumstances of a given situation. Clearly that is not what Obama is doing.

      Second, it can be applied as a matter of prioritizing resources, ie since we don’t have the resources to enforce all the laws all the time, we will focus our attention on X instead of Y. This is how Obama is selling his action, but it is equally plain that this, too, is not what he is actually doing. Suppose that the dealing of all recreational drugs are outlawed by congress, but there aren’t enough resources to go after all dealers. The executive may use discretion to decide that he will focus his resources on going after heroin dealers and ignore marijuana dealers. But he cannot then go further to grant business permits to marijuana dealers to sell their goods openly in legitimate stores, so that those dealers can “get right with the law” (whatever the fuck that is supposed to mean) and the government can collect taxes from – or dish out business subsidies to – the marijuana dealers. That is a clearly outside the bounds of the the executive’s authority.

      Obama is certainly acting unconstitutionally. But the constitution really has become effectively meaningless. One of the things I have concluded over the last several years is that there really is no ultimate safeguard of the constitution outside of the dedication of those who hold power to uphold it. When that dedication is absent, particularly in the executive, but even in the other branches, then the constitution might as well not exist. And I think it is plain that the left holds no genuine regard for the constitution whatsoever. It is simply another tool to be used when convenient and discarded when inconvenient.

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      • …but it is equally plain that this, too, is not what he is actually doing.

        This is plain to you? Consider the following.

        We cannot find all the people we can theoretically deport and we cannot actually physically deport them within a two year time frame. Offering them the opportunity to show themselves, and register,for a two year reprieve, would be a deal any prosecutor would salivate at making if it actually works.

        Which is not to say that is what BHO has in mind, but this works well as a prosecutorial discretion scheme.

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        • Mark:

          This is plain to you?

          It is.

          Offering them the opportunity to show themselves, and register,for a two year reprieve, would be a deal any prosecutor would salivate at making if it actually works.

          Perhaps, but the question isn’t whether it is a good deal to make, it is who has the legitimate authority to offer that deal. As Williamson points out, that prosecutors have the discretion to not prosecute doesn’t imply that they have the discretion to offer up new rights and privileges to those they are choosing not to prosecute.

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        • Ramesh makes a good point at NR:

          http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/393159/critique-left-ramesh-ponnuru

          The moralizing language Obama used, which essentially cast attempts to enforce the immigration laws as acts of indecency, is hard to square with the limits that he set. We shouldn’t rip families apart, he said–unless some of their members came here recently. We should give people a chance to get right with the law — unless they come here illegally in the future. To treat illegal immigrants as illegal immigrants is to “oppress the stranger” — and we’re going to keep doing it to several million of them. The policy and the rhetoric are at war with each other. If the rhetoric is taken seriously, the limits will go.

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  3. i see what you’re getting act. the Copts would likely qualify as refugees. there’s what he did … and how he’s justifying it that’s a bigger issue, IMO. the congress won’t act, so I will.

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  4. There’s no substitute for the new Republican Congress passing an enforcement only bill and rolling back his EO. If he vetos it then the fig leaf about “Congress didn’t act” is removed.

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  5. the test will be how they respond .. seems the left thinks they are incapable of doing so.

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  6. The left thinks they will have a big interparty fight. That’s a real possibility based on past stupidity (see how the shutdown fight was handled) but with Cantor gone and McConnell in charge in the Senate he and Boehner may be able to have a more effective response this time.

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  7. oh — did you want that email address into Brat’s office?

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  8. thx for the backup on the test thing. i woke up in the middle of the night “son of a bitch, he’s just ignoring half the test”

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  9. Mark, where does POTUS’s authority to issue work permits come from?

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  10. “novahockey, on November 21, 2014 at 11:16 am said:

    thx for the backup on the test thing. i woke up in the middle of the night “son of a bitch, he’s just ignoring half the test””

    It’s just lying by trying to use his own version of the test but still cite it as an objective criteria.

    He can easily make the opposite of Hitler case, but the Stalin thing bugs him because that hits closer to home.

    I never appreciated Scott C’s need to always set axioms for discussions until dealing with Aletheia. That’s exactly where it’s called for.

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  11. “novahockey, on November 21, 2014 at 10:53 am said:

    oh — did you want that email address into Brat’s office?”

    Sure, or you can E-mail them yourself if you like the idea and suggest it. Ditto if Mark wants to suggest it to Ted Cruz.

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  12. You guys are much more patient with Aletheia than I’ve ever been able to be. He isn’t on ignore right now only because I’m enjoying watching him stumble all over the place trying to convince you that you’re more Stalinesque than he is.

    No, NoVA, I am not turning to the dark side!

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  13. what’s your take .. obviously JNC and I are correct

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  14. If anybody is authoritarian it’s Aletheia–he wants his world his way with his rules, and the rest of us be damned. He’d smile and tell you it was all for your own good right before he threw you to the bottom of the employment pile.

    I still often wonder what color the sky is in his world. That’s why I had to put him on ignore last time–I got tired of the “no, you’re wrong, it’s never been tried. . . but if I were in charge everything would be perfect!”

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  15. http://ace.mu.nu/archives/353296.php

    JNC’s idea is gaining traction.

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  16. Note that I was first though. It’s an ideal symbolic rebuke and assertion of Congressional perogatives. The base will love the part about faithfully adhering to the Constitutional requirement for the State of the Union and it will set the whole commetariat up in arms along with seriously pissing off the President without actually blowing up anything in the government.

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  17. I want to see the next Republican president invoke an impending emergency and Congressional inaction as a justification to issue an EO reforming entitlements.

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  18. A whole generation now lost to progressives:

    #ThanksMichelleObama:

    http://www.vox.com/2014/11/21/7263543/school-lunch-michelle-obama

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  19. Why it’s clearly amnesty and not “prosecutorial discretion” or a resource issue:

    “Another aspect of the new initiative is an attempt to formally scale back ICE field agents’ discretion — and thus their ability to passively undermine the administration’s approach.

    Under the new policy, agents are allowed to deport someone who’s not a priority — but only if the director of their field office decides it would “serve an important federal interest.” It’s clear from the rest of the memo that simply deporting immigrants for being unauthorized does not count, according to DHS, as an important federal interest.

    This creates accountability in two directions. For one thing, it directs ICE agents to get the approval of someone higher up if they want to deport a non-priority immigrant. For another, if ICE is trying to deport the parent of a US citizen, and activists and the press start making a fuss about it — as has happened many times before — DHS headquarters can put the field office director on the spot, since it’s assumed he signed off on it.”

    http://www.vox.com/2014/11/21/7260285/obama-immigration-illegal

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  20. This should be fun to watch unfold:

    “Reid Unapologetic as Aide Steps on Toes, Including Obama’s

    By JASON HOROWITZ
    NOV. 21, 2014

    President Obama called Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, to broach a particularly delicate subject. It was during last year’s government shutdown and standoff with Republicans, but Mr. Obama’s frustration focused on one of their own. The president said he suspected David Krone, Mr. Reid’s intensely loyal and influential top aide, of leaking to the news media, and requested that he stay away from future meetings.

    It did not take much time for the president’s comments to reach Mr. Reid’s right-hand man. To Mr. Obama’s surprise, Mr. Krone was listening in on the call. Suddenly, the aide piped up and made it clear to the president that he did not appreciate the accusation.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/22/us/politics/as-democrats-work-to-unify-a-top-reid-aide-causes-a-rift.html

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