Morning Report – Lousy jobs report 9/5/14

Markets are lower after a lousy jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up.

The jobs report came in surprisingly weak. Payrolls increased 142k in August, while the Street was expecting to see 230k. The two-month revision was -28k. Unemployment ticked down to 6.1%, however the labor force participation rate dropped back to its lows at 62.8%. Average Hourly Earnings rose .2% and the workweek was flat at 34.5 hours. Overall, a very disappointing report that doesn’t really comport with some of the other data we have been seeing (like the ISM which has been super strong). I wouldn’t be surprised to see this report revised upward (for the record, August reports are notorious for big revisions), but for the moment, there it is.

 nonfarm payrolls wsj

Demographically, it looks like the biggest growth was in the 25-35 year old cohort, which is what we need to see in order to bring back the first time homebuyer. Interestingly we saw a bit of growth in the 55+ age bracket.

Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota believes the Fed should be doing more, not less to stimulate the economy. He says that “interest rates are not low enough….Given where we are with inflation, I think that it’s challenging to know why we are removing stimulus from the economy at the rate that we are.” Note that the makeup of the Fed changes every year, and two hawkish voting members – Plosser and Fisher are being replaced by doves Evans and Lockhart. This  will mean one lone hawk, four neutral, and five doves.

Mortgage credit tightened slightly in August, according to the MBA. Credit did ease for 203k loans and construction loans, but overall credit dipped, particularly on the government side.

78 Responses

  1. you should have heard the WTOP anchors when they went from “we are expecting a good report” to 10 seconds later when their reporter came on with the figures.

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  2. It should have been better given the other economic data we have been seeing.

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  3. Prolly like Lieutenant Colonel in the military, utterly meaningless.

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    • McWing:

      Prolly like Lieutenant Colonel in the military, utterly meaningless.

      Definitely the case in finance. I remember I was 27 and working in Hong Kong when I made a VP. All of our friends were working for small tech companies or manufacturers like Reebok and Nike. They were all so very impressed that I had a business card with VP on it, and I was thinking to myself that I’d have been a total failure if I didn’t. Anyone with any experience at all was at least a VP.

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  4. VP is the military equivalent of an O-3

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  5. Double heh.

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  6. Spoken like a true LTC.!

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  7. Prolly just a one-off, a freakish aberration and not, I repeat NOT a key feature of government.

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/features/Contract-to-cheat/Labor-law-dodge-hurts-taxpayers-and-workers.html?brand=mcd

    Shut up you fucking Bagger!

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    • Hey, I was just thinking….if the commerce clause gives congress the power to null the second amendment and prevent a felon from possessing a firearm, it must also give congress the power to null the first amendment and prevent the same felon from publishing an op-ed in a national newspaper. And while we’re at it maybe we can pass a law forcing felons to worship a certain religion. Or prevent them from worshipping other, er, less non-violent religions, if you know what I mean. Surely most places of worship have been built with, and utilize, at least some materials that have passed through interstate commerce, making all of this perfectly constitutional, no?

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  8. do you military types read duffelblog? i find it hilarious

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  9. I’m thinking of having the Constitution tattooed on the inside of my eyelids so I can study it every night while I sleep.

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  10. you could have “general welfare” and “necessary and proper” 🙂

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  11. I have those tattooed on my knuckles.

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  12. I was also thinking of a picture of a UPS truck driven by a felon carrying guns to a gun show with a secret stash of wheat under the front seat……………probably too big for my eyelids though.

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  13. do you military types read duffelblog?

    Occasionally–when I remember to (or somebody links to it). You’re right, it is hilarious.

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  14. If you’ve never had a half flour half corn tortilla, also known as a “Mixta Tortilla,” do yourself a favor and have a dozen. It will ruin you for regular tortillas.

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  15. “UPS truck driven by a felon carrying guns to a guns show with a secret stash of wheat under the front seat”

    sounds like the beginning of a great movie.

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  16. More like reality tv NoVA.

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  17. too true

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  18. Am I the only person here that thinks the band, Boston, Sucks?

    If so, WHAT THE FUCK is wrong with you people?

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  19. do you military types read duffelblog? i find it hilarious

    Never heard of it.. will have to check it out.

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  20. Am I the only person here that thinks the band, Boston, Sucks?

    First song I learned on guitar was More Than a Feeling. And I always thought Boston was a pretty good band – I loved, loved, loved the guitar tone they got in the mid 70s. Up until I heard Van Halen I, it was my favorite guitar tone.

    The solo in Long Time is epic. One of my favorites.

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  21. Oh God!

    Ok, saving construction here, in hindsight, after listening to other musicians, they’re not nearly as good as you once thought, right?

    Throw me a friggin’ bone here!

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  22. Put it this way, I am probably very forgiving because Boston came around right when I started getting into music. You have to understand what was popular when Boston was big on AM radio. It was the age of Saturday Night Fever. Disco and schmaltz like Barry Manilow were what came on the radio. Boston was one of the few heavier bands that made it to AM radio. Compared to Barry Manilow, Boston was Metallica.

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  23. Brent, I get it, I’m 48 so we’re probably similar in age. I can see how, when you were young and irresponsible you were, er, young and irresponsible. But now you’re grown. You’ve got a family, a steady job, responsibilities. It’s time as an adult to put away childish things.

    Here’s what you need to do, renounce Boston. Just say they “suck balls” like you said your health insurance does. That’s it, that’s all we need here and we can move on as if nothing happened.

    Is that something you can do?

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  24. Class of ’83

    Never got the hate for Boston… Yes, they probably were part of the corporate cocaine-driven rock that put Styx on the map as well. They used to call the DJ’s “penguins” which is how they were paid to play Styx.

    Still, that guitar tone Scholz got was sick. And he is from my hometown.

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  25. Ok, I’m class of ’84.

    You understand the position we’re in here, right? I mean the town of Boston has a rich, musical history, Jonathan Richman and The Modern Lovers, Aerosmith, Talking Heads, The Cars. It’s time to let it go, this… Nostalgia. Together we can do it! Together we can say, “Boston? Yeah, as a kid I dug ’em. Heck, hearing them makes me wistful! But I’ve come to realize they suck balls.”

    See?

    Now you try it.

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  26. Sorry, I am a sucker for heavy guitar and a swing feel, which Boston had in spades. Foreigner, Styx, and REO Speedwagon? Yes as a kid I dug them , but today, they suck balls.

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  27. Brent, help me to help you.

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  28. What from that era do I still listen to?

    UFO, Thin Lizzy, Aerosmith (though Draw the Line was their dividing line between good and mailing it in), Physical Graffiti, Genesis (again, stops at When There were Three), Pink Floyd, Yes, Sabbath, Heart, Rush, Steely Dan

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  29. You realize Boston probably sold a quarter of a billion dollars worth of albums, right?

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  30. Lastly, understand as a musician, I tend to see the good in everything.

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  31. UFO’s a stretch for me, that’s Michael Schenker right? Agreed re Aerosmith, NoGo Genesis, I dy heaved when I read that. I prefer LZ II but PA’s ok. Very glad you included Rush, Moving Pictures is sublime.

    No Motörhead? Clash? Sex Pistols? Really?

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  32. I can’t help it if people buy shit.

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  33. “No Motörhead? Clash? Sex Pistols? Really?”

    yeah, should have probably included them… did get off big on never mind the bollocks and london calling. motorhead to me was an early 80s band.

    And Micheal Schencker was my biggest influence as a guitarist, along with gary moore.

    from a recent gig… solo at 1:30…. totally late 70s style Schencker riffing…

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  34. To me, Bullocks and London Calling are perhaps 2 and 3 in the Top 5 of Greatest Albums Ever.

    And that’s what I don’t get about this *defiant* position of yours. When Johnny Rotten spoke of Rock and Roll being dead and they were feeding off it’s corpse, it’s a KNOWN fact he was referring to Boston. I’m pretty sure there’s a line in American Pie lamenting their rise and existence.

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  35. Don’t make my play the “they’re gay” card, cause I will.

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  36. More non-scandal news.

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  37. “And that’s what I don’t get about this *defiant* position of yours.”

    I am a Detroit Lions fan. Sometimes what you grow up with is what you come home to.

    He who fucks nuns will later join the Church

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  38. SMH.

    Perhaps others can way in here? Let’s help Brent get past what’s obviously a tantrum.

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  39. That’s cool. Understand musicians are pretty forgiving people, and would give their left nut to sell 31 million albums at 8 bucks a pop.

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  40. Toto sold a lot of records too, I don’t see you fetishizing them.

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  41. As a musician, I completely respect Toto. They were the Winger of the 70s… phenomenal studio musicians who put together a group that put out hits and did all the little things that musicians respect. Critics… not so much.

    Guitarist Steve Lukather is still the shit, even today…. Dude is monster on guitar.

    Do I own a Toto album? No. Did I wish I wrote Africa? Absolutely.

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  42. Jesus.

    Ok, substitute Air Supply.

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  43. Ok, with Air Supply, you crossed the line. Putting the “V” in vapid

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  44. Can’t stand Air Supply’s music. Wouldn’t mind the royalty checks though.

    But you are right, as an artist, Air Supply belongs in the Kenny G / Debbie Gibson territory.

    Edit: Pat Metheney’s rant on Kenny G won the internet in the late 90s.

    http://www.jazzoasis.com/methenyonkennyg.htm

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  45. Off topic from music of the 80’s……………lol. I grew up in the 60’s (class of ’68), music hasn’t been the same since IMO.

    And Scott I think worrying about Constitutional authorization is a matter of degree and personal peeves in all honesty. I worry more about privacy violations than stretching the truth to incorporate a national health care system, social security, or even asbestos removal. I think we all have our issues and just because I’m not as concerned with one of yours, or you’re not that concerned with one of mine, doesn’t make either one of us a bad citizen unworthy of participating in our so-called self-rule. Just because our interests lie elsewhere doesn’t mean we’re uninterested, uninformed or too trusting to participate.

    The NSA has been sweeping up terabytes of data and storing them (some of this in conjunction with British intelligence). Barack Obama’s glib assurances that they haven’t been recording our emails notwithstanding, they’ve been recording our emails (they can actually read them in real time), as well as sweeping up the content of phone calls as data files. NSA personnel routinely passed around nude photos of people captured from the internet, Snowden has revealed, calling it a perk of the job. Some NSA personnel misused their position to spy on ex-girlfriends.

    Defenders of this activity insist that it is necessary to protect us from “terrorism.” But the major terrorist threat in the world, ISIL, appears to have surprised them last June by taking over 40% of the major country of Iraq, which the US surely had under intensive surveillance. If their surveillance did not alert them to this major victory for vicious terrorists, which has pulled the US military back into a war zone, then it isn’t much good, is it? Maybe they were too busy violating the 4th Amendment to the Constitution by spying on millions of innocent Americans without a warrant. Having too much irrelevant data almost certainly distracted them from the real intelligence bonanza that would have been in ISIL communications if they had made time to monitor them intensively instead of amusing themselves with our embarrassing selfies.

    It is not clear that Congress and the courts will have the backbone to stand up to the National Security State about this deep-sixing of the US Constitution. But just as you feel sorry for high-strung celebs distressed over being violated, you have to feel sorry for the whole American public, who have been being unconstitutionally violated for years.

    Maybe we think that if we have nothing to hide, we have nothing to fear? I don’t believe that’s the case.

    http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/hackers-instead-predicting.html

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    • HS class of ’84 (yay, McWing). Not as into music as you guys, though, especially ’80s music. In HS my go-to music was The Beatles and Billy Joel. I probably have a wider range of music now because of my kids than I did when I was a kid.

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      • HS class of 1960. Ray Charles. Elvis. Little Richard. The Shirelles. Fats Domino.

        A bit later I thought the period 66-68 was astonishing in its variety because everything got played in one place. By 1980 I liked Dire Straits, The Cars, X, The Police, J. Geils, but preferred earlier Clapton, Hendrix, Genesis, and earlier Hall and Oates and Lil Feat. At the same time I very much liked Doobies and Eagles and Steely Dan. Also a whole lotta country, especially western swing. Yep, all over the lot. But never cared for Journey or Foreigner, and thought Boston and Aerosmith were just interesting, not special. Live, I would have gone to see The Allmans, or Willie, or Robert Cray or Bonnie Raitt or the Fabulous Thunderbirds by preference in that period and did so.

        Later in the 80s I liked Southern Pacific and Lyle Lovett, and Bruce Hornsby. And got to like Springsteen, whom I had completely overlooked, previously. We had some real guitar slicks in Austin, too. Not just SRV, either. Ever see/hear Junior Brown? Eric Johnson?

        Back to 1980 – I never liked another punk band as much as I liked X. And whatever happened to the Jay Geils Band? I thought I was gonna like them a lot and poof they were gone, or so it seemed.

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    • If ISIS caught us by surprise that is an interesting juxtaposition, Lulu.

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    • Lms:

      Just because our interests lie elsewhere doesn’t mean we’re uninterested, uninformed or too trusting

      True, but someone who says things like “Do I care if there is explicit constitutional authority or not………………….not that much really” can, I think, be fairly characterized as uninterested in the constitutionality of congress’ actions.

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  46. I saw Willie Dixon at the Liberty Lunch years ago.

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  47. I spent my high school years listening to a lot of folk music, because that’s what I played on my guitar, which I don’t play anymore. Also listened to a lot of Beatles, Joni Mitchell, Bob Dylan, Arlo Guthrie, Joan Baez and then when I headed off to college it was all Led Zeppelin, The Doors, Santana, etc. etc…………….you get the drift.

    Won’t be around much for the next week or so as we’re headed to CO Wed and I have a lot of work to do to get out of Dodge. Have a great weekend and week everyone………………..I promise I’ll study while I’m gone…………….jk

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    • All you food people:

      I went to a thing last night called Outstanding In The Field. It’s basically a group that travels around the country putting on open air, farm-to-table dinners using locally farmed foods. A bit on the environmentally preachy side, but despite that it was a really unique experience and a good time. I definitely recommend it. This is where I was last night:

      Two beautiful dinners in Connecticut at The Hickories!

      A post shared by Outstanding In The Field (@out_inthefield) on

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  48. I’m a pretty big Dylan fan. I also think Dazed and Confused is the greatest rock song ever recorded.

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  49. Do not show these to shrink, he’d faint.

    Christ what right-wingers, it’s almost as if I’m reading Bagger propaganda.

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  50. Cool.

    Did they, uh, “process” any local farm animals for the meal?

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  51. Don’t forget Mark, Scott’s Veep!$!$!$!$

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  52. Mark, if I were meeting you and JNC in Austin next month as he suggested, I’d totally spring for that dinner. You guys could have my meat and I’d have all the veggies I wanted, but more importantly we’d probably have a blast! Do It!

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  53. Mark – 10/10 – 10/13.

    I was going to suggest meeting up for brunch on Sunday, 10/12.

    Also just saw a local Austin artist, Gary Clark Jr., at a festival here. He was really impressive.

    http://www.esquire.com/blogs/culture/gary-clark-jr-rock-god

    http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/gary-clark-jr-the-chosen-one-20131224

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    • JNC, I’ll send you links to good brunch places that are informal, old Austin, and cheap – but I am assuming you can get away from downtown, SoCo, and the University. Of course I can pick y’all up and take us anywhere we want to go.

      Lulu, JNC won’t be here for the $220 meals. But here is a link to a great restaurant you would love where we could meet for lunch and you could eat wegetables, freshly produced from their one acre garden.

      http://www.eastsidecafeaustin.com/

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  54. “Let the mutherfuker burn!, on September 5, 2014 at 6:23 pm said:

    Don’t make my play the “they’re gay” card, cause I will.”

    Says the guy who likes the new Star Trek movies.

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  55. HOW DARE YOU?!?!?!!??!!!

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  56. At least Boston was original. Those Star Trek movies are totally derivative from the original material, and gay at the same time. To translate it for you, they aren’t even Boston, they are the equilivent of a bad Boston cover band.

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  57. Why do you hate good taste?

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  58. Mark, next time I talk Walter into a Texas trip I’ll let you know. Hasn’t happened in the first 36 years but you never know. He definitely wouldn’t approve of me going alone…….. 😉

    We saw “A Most Wanted Man” this afternoon, really liked it but I could have written a better ending. And I’m still pissed off that PSH died.

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  59. Mark, that’s fine. We’ve typically done the stuff in walking distance of our hotels in the past, like Taverna on 2nd Street & Annies on Congress. We can grab a cab to wherever else you recommend.

    I’d stay do the dinner, but my flights are already set and I suspect it would be a pain to change them at this point.

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