Morning Report – Short week, but lots of data 9/2/14

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

Short week, but a lot of important economic data. Today, we get the ISM Manufacturing Survey and Construction Spending. On Thursday, we get the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and on Friday, we get the jobs report. Between the data and European events we could have a volatile week for rates.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose than expected, while the ISM prices paid index dropped. Production and New Orders jumped. Employment ticked down slightly. The production and new orders numbers bode well for 3Q GDP.

Construction spending rose 1.8% month-over-month as residential construction increased .7% and non-residential rose 2.5%. Of private residential construction, 52% was single family construction, 12% was multi-fam, and 36% was home improvement.

The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose slightly, but came in a bit light. Note that this Thursday we will be getting same store sales from the retailers and back-to-school shopping numbers. BTS is a good indicator for holiday shopping. We have seen strong consumer sentiment numbers, but so far that hasn’t translated into actual spending.

Euro sovereigns are weaker this morning, which means US Treasuries are weaker. Speculation over whether the ECB will start quantitative easing is going to be driving bonds as much, or even more, than US economic data. Note that hedge funds are getting long Treasuries. It finally happened. People are momentum trading bonds.

Angelo Mozillo has no regrets over what happened with Countrywide. As he puts it: “Countrywide didn’t change. I didn’t change. The world changed.” Compared to other CEOs of that era, Mozillo has not shied away from the public spotlight. The US Attorney’s Office in Los Angeles is suing him now.

Finally, I appeared on Louis Amaya’s Mortgage Markets Today show last week and discussed interest rates and the housing market. The full interview is here.

9 Responses

  1. Eric Cantor is now an investment banker

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  2. Aka Rolodex dialer.

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  3. I don’t link these rants here very often, if ever anymore after the brouhaha over Matt Taibbi, but damn I like this guy and his rants. Reader beware! I think it must be the imagery and the irreverence which attracts me. I’m no good at either but there’s still a little bit of a rebel inside of me wanting to bust out I guess!

    Now look, don’t get me wrong here: Obamacare is a piece of shit.

    It’s too complicated. It costs too much. It doesn’t cover everybody. It doesn’t fix some significant problems. It makes certain aspects of healthcare worse. Even the most liberal of liberals are unlikely to argue with you about that. Hell, I doubt Obama would argue with you about that. But it could have been much better. It could have been much much better, we could have done it right, if republicans had actually gotten involved and helped with its original draft.

    And it could have been drastically improved in the years since its implementation if conservatives had actually worked with the president instead of calling him a Nazi and acting like spoiled rotten children. If they had actually had a goddamned plan other than to oppose the president at every turn simply because they can’t think of anything better to do.

    The United States is a wealthy nation. We boast that we’re the world’s only superpower. We call ourselves exceptional. And yet a significant fraction of our population doesn’t have access to basic healthcare.

    This part’s pretty funny too.

    Case in point, there’s movement afoot in conservatives circles to encourage Mitt Romney to run for president against (assumed) Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    Mitt Romney.

    I’ll just pause for a moment so you can amuse yourself with that idea.

    Mitt Romney, folks. Again.

    The one goddamned republican who you know for sure can’t get himself elected to the White House (Okay, two, John McCain, you got me, but since republicans no longer believe in math just go with me on this one). Romney, that’s the guy they’re thinking about running against Hillary Clinton.

    Mitt Romney.

    Against Hillary Clinton.

    Congressman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) told MSNBC,

    I think he’s [Romney] proven right on a lot of stuff. I happen to be in the camp that thinks he’s actually going to run and I think he will be the next President of the United States.

    There’s a Facebook group Mitt Romney for President 2016, they’ve only got 4,600 “likes” so far but that’s more than I would have guessed – unless those are Democrats. Hmmm.

    The Week says Mitt Romney is the clear republican frontrunner for 2016.

    Ann Coulter, Matt Drudge, and Paul Ryan are all onboard the Draft Mitt campaign.

    Ryan thinks it would be a good idea for Romney to run again because, and I quote, “Third time’s the charm.”

    Romney.

    Mitt Romney.

    Against Hillary Clinton.

    Shit, she won’t even have to put on the chainmail to beat that raggedy man.

    http://www.stonekettle.com/2014/08/ass-backward-into-unknown.html

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  4. BTW Brent…………….nice interview!

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  5. Why were Republicans obligated to help nationalize healthcare?

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  6. Are we to assume he just learned this or has he been bought?

    Every day’s anew day for Juicebox!

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  7. Thanks, Lulu

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  8. Haha, Marc Thiessen is both appalled and I think a little terrified that Romney might actually run again.

    Talk of a Romney 2016 run is heating up. A USA Today poll shows Romney with a huge lead in Iowa, far ahead of 14 other potential GOP candidates. And after months of Shermanesque denials, Romney recently cracked the door open to another presidential bid, telling radio host Hugh Hewitt that “circumstances can change.”

    To which I say: Nooooo!

    Don’t get me wrong, I wish Mitt Romney were president right now. And apparently so do a majority of Americans. A recent poll found that if the 2012 election were held today, Romney would beat Obama by 53 percent to 44 percent. But those numbers more likely reflect buyer’s remorse with Barack Obama than a sudden longing for a Romney administration. Indeed, the very same poll showed Romney losing to Hillary Clinton by 55 percent to 44 percent — not exactly the result Republicans are looking for in 2016.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/marc-thiessen-romney-2016-nooooo/2014/09/01/4ec69ebe-31e4-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=clavis_1.0_strip_1

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