Faux Morning Report 7/10/14

Posted on July 10, 2014 by ScottC

The report is that Brent is still not able to post. That is all.

Filed under: Open Thread | 28 Comments »

New Thread While Brent Pretends WP Is Giving Him Trouble 7/9/14

Posted on July 9, 2014 by Let the mutherfuker burn!

But we know the real reason.

Filed under: Open Thread | 18 Comments »

Open Thread 7/8/14

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Let the mutherfuker burn!

Talking points not welcome.

Filed under: Open Thread | 34 Comments »

Fresh Thread In Case Brent “Still Can’t Log Onto WordPress”

Posted on July 7, 2014 by Let the mutherfuker burn!

Freebird! (Holds up lighter.)

Filed under: Open Thread | 45 Comments »

Happy 4th of July!

Posted on July 4, 2014 by Let the mutherfuker burn!

Stick it Georgie!

Filed under: Open Thread | 41 Comments »

Morning Report – Strong ADP number 7/2/14

Posted on July 2, 2014 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1967.0 1.2 0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 3259.1 0.4 0.01%
Oil (WTI) 104.8 -0.6 -0.55%
LIBOR 0.235 0.003 1.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.97 0.156 0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.60% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.3 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.6 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.17

 

Stocks are higher (and bonds are lower) after an unusually strong ADP report.
The ADP Employment Report estimated the economy added 281,000 jobs in June, versus expectations of 205,000. The official jobs report comes out tomorrow, and the consensus forecast is 215,000. The ADP number supports the forecast coming out of Markit last week of about 280,000 jobs as well. Construction added 36,000 jobs. More on the increase in hiring.. Maybe, finally, “recovery summer” will not be the running joke it has been since 2009.

Mortgage Applications fell .2% last week, according to the MBA. Purchases were down .7%, while refis were up .1%.  Disappointing print given that the 10 year dropped 9 bps last week and the Bankrate 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell from 4.22% to 4.14%.
Home prices rose 1.4% in April, according to CoreLogic. Prices are 13.5% below their April 2006 peak. This increase in prices has been a double-edged sword – it has pulled many people out of negative equity, but it has decreased affordability, especially with the first time homebuyer. CoreLogic expects price appreciation to cool over the next year.

Filed under: Morning Report | 82 Comments »

Morning Report – Strong Auto Sales 7/1/14

Posted on July 1, 2014 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1957.2 4.8 0.25%
Eurostoxx Index 3245.5 17.2 0.53%
Oil (WTI) 105.8 0.4 0.39%
LIBOR 0.232 0.001 0.48%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.81 0.030 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.55% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.6 -0.2
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.8 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.15

Stocks are modestly higher this morning on good Chinese manufacturing data. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 55.3, a small drop from last month and slightly below consensus. Construction spending rose .1% in May, disappointing, but the April number was revised upward in a big way, from .2% to .8%.

Auto sales are coming in this morning and at first glance, they look pretty good. Chrysler sales are up 9% and even troubled GM’s sales were up 1%. I think the average age of a car in the US is pushing 12 years, which is a record. This implies we are going to see a wave of auto buying as these cars become too expensive to keep fixing.

Financial repression has consequences. The Fed is rightfully worried about creating another credit bubble. One place to watch is commercial mortgages, where firms are refinancing old bubble-era debt at current rates. Spreads have narrowed 10 basis points this year to 77 basis points for the higher quality stuff, and LTVs have climbed to within 10% of their third quarter 2007 peak. Vacancy rates are still elevated, and are above the peak of the early 00’s recession.

The Supreme Court split the baby on a couple big decisions yesterday, ruling that companies don’t have to cover abortifacients if they object to them for religious reasons, and ruled that non-union members don’t have to pay dues for unions that negotiate on their behalf. Both decisions were narrowly written, but that won’t stop the avalanche of “slippery slope” columns that are being written this morning.

 

Filed under: Morning Report | 71 Comments »

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