Morning Report – Durable goods orders jump 12/24/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1823.3 0.5 0.03%
Eurostoxx Index 3072.9 2.0 0.06%
Oil (WTI) 99.08 0.2 0.17%
LIBOR 0.247 0.001 0.41%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.52 0.069 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.95% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.9 -0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103 -0.3
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.49
Stocks are unch’d on this short trading day. Stocks and bonds close at 1:00 pm EST today. Bonds are down.
Mortgage Applications fell 6.3% last week, taking the index down to the lowest level since December 2000. Some of this is seasonal, as the spring selling season doesn’t really kick off until just after the Superbowl. Purchases were down 3.5%, while refis were down 7.7%.
Durable goods orders increased 3.5% in November, rebounding smartly from an upward-revised -.7% in October. The print came in higher than the Street +2% estimate. Demand for autos is increasing which isn’t surprising as the average age of a car in the US is pushing 12 years, an all-time record. I have said it before – this is how recessions end. Eventually the consumer simply has to spend money to replace things, which increases demand, which increases employment and wages eventually. Consumers increase spending first, and then we get wage increases.
Consumer Confidence rebounded in December to 82.5 from 75.1 the month before.
The FHFA reported that home prices rose .5% month-over-month in October. Year-over-year they were up 8.2%. The U.S. index is 8.8% below its April 2007 peak. This index considers properties with a conforming mortgage only, so it isn’t necessarily representative of the whole U.S. residential real estate market.

Delinquencies ticked up 2.63% month-over-month according to LPS’s “First Look” mortgage report. Delinquencies + foreclosures are just under 4.5 million homes. Separately, FHFA announced that it has completed more than 3 million foreclosure prevention actions.

Finally, Merry Christmas everybody..

19 Responses

  1. Merry Christmas Brent!




    • McWing:


      I object to this claim. I almost always have the actual first post of the day. Just because my comments come in before Brent posts his MP doesn’t make your tardy efforts “first”.


  2. Scott,

    Sounds like loser whining to me. You’re trying to move the goal post. “first” or, as Brent calls it “frist,” is the number 1 comment in a new post. There is an obvious difference between a comment, this, versus a post, which is what we’re commenting in. You wanna be firsts (frist) in a post? Either pay more attention or create your own post!


    In other news, in all seriousness, does any reader here, lurker or regular commenter, agree with this?


    • McWing;

      Sounds like loser whining to me.

      I am chastened and humbled.

      In other news, in all seriousness, does any reader here, lurker or regular commenter, agree with this?

      Truly disturbing, although all-too-predictable of the authoritarianism that seems to infect progressive/liberal ideology.


  3. I just wonder then, what is the purpose of government?


    • McWing:

      I just wonder then, what is the purpose of government?

      Progressives/liberals seem to believe that the purpose of government is to order the world to their liking.


  4. Ed Kilgore says stuff.

    Shorter version: Republicans are racist.

    Luckily he reaffirmed his tribal affiliation. That should by his an off-colour joke or two.


  5. Shorter version: Republicans are racist.

    When your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail


  6. Just stopping by to wish you all a Merry Christmas! Hope everyone has a couple extra days off work at any rate. We’re having a blast having our youngest daughter home for a week. She’s even been swimming with me. Trying to get me to go faster…..LOL

    Have a great New Year too!

    Miss you guys sometimes…………………..



  7. Merry Christmas LuLu! God bless and take care!


  8. Merry Christmas, all!

    I quoted the old RC Bible [Douay version] because “toward men of goodwill” is a closer translation than “goodwill toward men”. However, the now commonly accepted best translation is one I don’t like, so I ignore it.


  9. Merry Christmas to everyone here too.

    Mark, I see from a PL HHR thread yesterday that you are now a “Republican Texas lawyer” because apparently you aren’t willing to toe the line on the bubble explanations.

    I love how progressive purity tests work.


  10. Also who else here has seen the US version of House of Cards on NetFlix?


    • I, too, have seen the Am. version. Having immersed myself in the early 90s in the Ian Richardson-Francis Urquhart version which I loved I had low expectations. To the good, this version exceeded my expectations.
      You will surely enjoy it, JNC.

      But if you never saw the original, you should set aside time for it, at some point. I have posted some scenes from it here in the past. One distinction is that the Brit FU is a Thatcherite Conservative, who is acidly dismissive of collectivist experimentation, and its effect on GB. I still love his “We are not a nation of social workers” dressing down of an aggressively critical BBC inquisitor.

      An article by the creator of both series:

      As you watch the American series, Robin Wright will grow on you as Mrs. FU. I think she shines in the role.
      My once in a fortnight ck in at PL is unrewarding. I ck to see if shrink has posted any links and to keep up with 12barblues and whether you or ‘Goose need a public defender. I know both of you do need one over there, as do I, but I am not diligent enough in my 15 minutes a week at PL to be much help. There are some regulars there who are open minded, intelligent, and/or amusing, as you know. But the place is overrun with johnny one note complainers.

      In a good marriage, no one ever says “the trouble with you is…”, or “why don’t you ever”, or “how come you never”. A blog that gets lots of hits is filled with folks you would not want to marry. All of life becomes an attack on the messenger followed by an equally ad hominem defense. JNC, you stay above that as well as can be done.


  11. […] Merry Christmas, McWing. And everyone else, of course. […]


  12. jnc:

    I have seen House Of Cards on Netflix. Thought it was excellent. I imagine it is a fairly accurate representation of DC.


  13. Heh!

    Merry Christmas everyone! Have a great day with your loved ones!


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