Morning Report – Goldilocks jobs report 12/6/13

Vital Statistics:


  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1802.1 18.1 1.01%
Eurostoxx Index 2977.9 24.7 0.84%
Oil (WTI) 97.63 0.3 0.26%
LIBOR 0.241 -0.001 -0.31%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.45 0.210 0.26%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.85% -0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -0.1  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.5 0.1  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.52    


Markets are stronger this morning on a better-than-expected jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up small, in a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 203,000 in November, which beat the 185,000 street estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 7% as the labor force participation rate rose from 62.8% to 63%. Personal income fell, while personal spending rose .3%. All in all, consider this a “Goldilocks” jobs report from the stock market’s perspective: strong enough to make people think about a better economy ahead, but weak enough to keep the Fed on your side. At the margin, it does make a tapering move more likely at the Fed this month.
It is looking like Janet Yellen and Mel Watt will be confirmed next week. 
Newark, NJ is moving forward with an eminent domain plan. As the cities that go this route get bigger and bigger, eventually Obama and Watt will have to take a position on this tactic. They will only be able to get away with the “it’s a local issue” dodge so long. 
It looks like we are close to a budget deal, which takes another government shutdown off the table. No major spending cuts, no tax increases, however some additional revenue will be raised through increasing airport security fees and PBGC premiums.

19 Responses

  1. Obamacare supporters, what do you make of this?

    A new Government Accountability Institute (GAI) analysis finds that from July 12, 2010, to Nov. 30, 2013, the president’s public schedule records zero one-on-one meetings between Obama and Sebelius. Equally shocking, over the same period, the president’s calendar lists 277 private meetings with his other Cabinet secretaries (excluding full Cabinet meetings).


  2. I didn’t think it would be this bad. I really didn’t think they’d bungle the exchanges.
    I was thinking about churn, blowing budget projections, and provider access issues. failure to launch didn’t occur to me.


  3. According to WaPo, the website is fine…Everything is working as it should..


  4. For Obamacare supporters, what defines success? At what point can it be declared? Is it a time or enrollment metric?

    More importantly, what defines failure? What metrics would occur where you would say it’s worse with Obamacare than without it?


    • McWing:

      More importantly, what defines failure? What metrics would occur where you would say it’s worse with Obamacare than without it?

      In all seriousness, I don’t think any such metrics exist. As I keep saying, despite what they say about themselves, progressives/the left/Obama are driven by ideology, not results. That being the case, O-care is necessarily a “success” regardless of reality on the ground because it has moved the nation towards more government control, which is, ideologically, precisely what they want.


  5. I don’t know if you’ve noticed the the “prevention will save $” has shifted into “prevention is an investment and/or social good.”


  6. Fascinating.

    An estimated seven out of every 10 physicians in deep-blue California are rebelling against the state’s Obamacare health insurance exchange and won’t participate, the head of the state’s largest medical association said.

    Whom do you believe?

    For its part, Covered California expects as many as 85 percent of the state’s doctors will join the new exchange.

    “The Covered California board says we have plenty of doctors, and they allege they have 85 percent of doctors participating,” notes Mazer. “But they’ve shown no numbers.”


  7. Scott, I fear you’re right. I wonder about the “reality based community” though. The House will stay R ( odds are) and the Tea-Baggers loathe Obamacare, that combination assures no chance for the Democratic goal of “improving the law.” It will continue as is or be repealed. That being the case, is there a situation I which repeal becomes a reasonable option?


  8. they’re not done yet. maybe they’ll just deem people covered.


  9. Really interesting article about the Abomination and the true number of people denied coverage because of preexisting conditions by Byron York.

    The White House’s numbers are vastly overstated. In 2010, Rep. Henry Waxman and other Democrats then in control of the House Energy and Commerce Committee tried to determine how many people had been denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition. They did not come up with an definitive number, but they found that in the previous two years, the nation’s four largest for-profit health insurance companies had denied coverage to 651,000 people based on pre-existing conditions.


  10. the real travesty here is that there was a public policy problem that needed a targeted approach. there was no reason to go full scale overhaul to address the pre-existing conditions.


  11. Really interesting article o. Individuality, communism, Nelson Mandela and Eldridge Cleaver.


  12. Two questions,

    1. Does this surprise anyone?

    2. Should this happen?

    Raising concerns about consumer privacy, California’s health exchange has given insurance agents the names and contact information for tens of thousands of people who went online to check out coverage but didn’t ask to be contacted.

    Pretend it was a gun retailer that got the information.


  13. Are these people (Aabomination supporters) this fundamentally stupid?

    So while Mr. Horrigan, 59, believes the law will improve health care in the long run, its short-term effect has been chaotic and trying for him and his wife, Kay. “It’s more stressful than it needed to be,” he said.

    It is NOT possible to change healthcare insurance for hundreds of millions of people without it being stressful for a large fucking chunk of people.

    I am just astounded at the naïveté! Is this common? This belief that the Federal government can do things competently and efficiently? If so , what history are these beliefs based on?

    Does anybody here think that it is possible for the Federal government to do this in a way that is not chaotic and trying?


  14. Juicebox tells me I didn’t here what I thought I heard and that even if I did hear what I thought I heard it’s for my own good.

    Oh, you know those insurance companies that he hates in the first couple of graphs? It’s good now that we can use the force of Federal law to give them money. And we should bail them out with Federal taxpayer money whenever they tell us they need it.


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