Morning Report – Black Friday disappoints 12/2/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1804.7 0.6 0.03%
Eurostoxx Index 3080.2 -6.4 -0.21%
Oil (WTI) 93.09 0.4 0.40%
LIBOR 0.239 0.000 -0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.9 0.220 0.27%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.78% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.3 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.1 -0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.38
Markets are flattish as traders return from a long weekend. Bonds and MBS are down. At 10:00 we will get the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending.
There is a lot of data this week, starting with the ISM report today, GDP on Thursday, and the all-important jobs report on Friday. Given the October surprise and the fact that the bar is set pretty low for Friday’s report (180k jobs / 7.2% unemployment) bonds could be vulnerable as any upside surprise will re-ignite December taper talk.
Black Friday was disappointing according to the National Retail Federation, as retailers were highly promotional early into the holiday shopping season. We have seen Wal Mart and Target already cut profit forecasts for the year. On Thursday, we will get the comp store data dump from all the retailers as they report November same store sales. We might see some profit warnings as well. It is hard to see how the Fed sees growth accelerating into 2014 with a consumer that is still cautious.
The White House is saying that the healthcare.gov website is operating fine, therefore it made its self-imposed Dec 1 deadline. The Administration is hoping that this will mollify Democrats in red districts with cold feet about the whole thing. We’ll see if it actually “works for the vast majority of users” as HHS claims it does.

25 Responses

  1. You know what I *could* write, don’t you?

    Yeah, you know.

    Like

  2. If only someone had told us…

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  3. This isn’t surprising.

    Won’t they just make accepting medicaid as a requirement to renew their licences?

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  4. Liscensing is a state issue.

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  5. Three words on why that’ll never happen: American Medical Association.

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  6. I don’t see it as a feasible solution either. but the impulse is there.

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  7. I bet money that reimbursement rates go up. Don’t forget, it’s not just ind MD’s but hospitals and hospital owned practices.

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  8. Wow.

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  9. “I bet money that reimbursement rates go up”

    that messes up the budget projections. not that they were every accurate. but still

    Medicaid is FUBAR and they expanded enrollment before addressing the systematic flaws. That’s just cruel.

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  10. Medicaid is FUBAR and they expanded enrollment before addressing the systematic flaws. That’s just cruel.

    Opportunities to remake the health care system don’t roll around every day… Pass something flawed and then play the “mend it, don’t end it” card…

    Like

  11. Impossible. A fetus is not a person. Only a person can have, or even start to form bad eating habits.

    http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2013/12/02/bad-eating-habits-start-in-the-womb/

    How am I wrong?

    Like

  12. in related news, i became an uncle on Thanksgiving day.

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  13. Congrats NoVa! Happy er, Uncledom.

    Like

  14. According to Media Matters, Fox News and WSJ control the country. In essence, Rupert Murdoch is the most powerful person to have ever existed.

    http://mediamatters.org/mobile/blog/2013/12/02/how-right-wing-media-have-impeded-the-return-to/197092

    Do Media Matters readers really beleive this?

    Like

  15. Do Media Matters readers really beleive this?

    Of course they do. To them, the only thing the economy needs is more demand, and if the government simply spends more the economy will recover.

    That said, Japan has been banging is head against the Keynsian wall for 2 decades now and all it has to show for it is a debt to GDP ratio of 2.2x.

    And it is inconceivable that the economic theory is bunk – the answer is that we didn’t try hard enough. Moar cowbell!

    And since it is the first Monday of the month, we have Teh Krugman with yet another column that claims the laws of supply and demand are somehow suspended in the labor market..

    Economics has turned into a partisan tool to be used by hacks…

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  16. that or i am secretly controlled by the koch brothers and voting against my own self interest.

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  17. When has a Obama speech or Obama White House “push” moved the needle?

    Won’t it make matters worse?

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  18. Ultimately wasn’t this the point of Dodd Frank? Consolidate the market and create more barriers to entrance?

    Like

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