Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1788.5 | 3.3 | 0.18% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3043.7 | -5.5 | -0.18% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.71 | 0.4 | 0.40% |
| LIBOR | 0.238 | -0.001 | -0.42% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.64 | -0.066 | -0.08% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.73% | 0.02% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 105.6 | -0.1 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 104.8 | 0.0 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.3 |
The Consumer Price Index came in as expected, with a .1% decrease month-over-month and a 1% increase year over year. Ex food and energy, prices rose .2% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. Certainly not enough of an increase to get the Fed worked up about inflation. If anything, they probably think it is too low.
Retail Sales came in at +.4% for October, which is yet another sign that the consumer (and the economy) basically yawned at the government shutdown. For all the sturm and drang out of guys like Mark Zandi saying the shutdown would lop 1.4% off of 4Q GDP growth, we have yet to see any tangible evidence it so far. Payroll was par for the post-recession course, retail sales were above average.
Housing-related expenditures make up about 17.6% of GDP, according to CoreLogic. This is up slightly from a year ago, but well below the peak of 20.6% in 2005. Part of the reason why this recovery has been so maddeningly tepid has been the absence of housing spending, particularly housing starts. Housing starts used to average around 1.5 million units a year from the sixties to the bubble years. Since then, we have been averaged under half of that. Since housing construction usually leads us out of a recovery, it absence has meant this slog of 1% – 2% GDP growth. Note that the homebuilders were noting mid teens increases in average selling prices amidst a drop in traffic. At some point, they are going to have to pump up the volume in order to meet achieve further growth. And that could be what we have been waiting for.
I went on Louis Amaya’s show yesterday and talked about the mortgage originators, servicers, and some of the REITs. I also discussed the origination business in general and trends going forward. The link is here.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
frist
LikeLike
Socend!
LikeLike
The hack Sargent sure sounds worried about a possible repeal of The Abomination.
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/20/the-morning-plum-on-obamacare-a-stark-racial-divide/
Thought that kinda thinking was only credible with Teabaggers like me.
LikeLike
Be nice to Greg. I must suck to be a junior officer on a sub went the captain doesn’t know what do do.
I liked Milbank’s column. Its so desperate. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-the-gops-scary-movie-strategy/2013/11/19/41da73a4-5163-11e3-9e2c-e1d01116fd98_story.html
Why
Our backs are now against the wall?
Listen all y’all, it’s a sabotage
Listen all y’all, it’s a sabotage
Listen all y’all, it’s a sabotage
Listen all y’all, it’s a sabotage
LikeLike
The polling exceeds my expectations. I didn’t think that they would get this much traction, but they did.
The other shoe to drop is the payment system I suspect. If there’s another round of blowups in January with insurers not getting paid properly, I expect the Democrats to cave on delaying the mandate and possibly some other things.
It will be interesting to see how this plays into the next round of budget talks.
LikeLike
Can’t stand it
I know you planned it.
LikeLike
This would be cool.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/going-to-mars-billionaire-dennis-tito-plans-manned-mission-with-possible-2017-launch/2013/11/20/b859bc76-51e8-11e3-9fe0-fd2ca728e67c_story.html?hpid=z3
LikeLike
website working or not, the pricing is going to be problematic as well. You can’t have a talking point of “you’re old plan wasn’t any good”
on a somewhat related note, a friend sent me a posting for GR job at AHIP. uh … pass.
LikeLike
How much should doctors make?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/11/20/doctors_pay_under_obamacare_cut_the_whining.html
What’s the consensus at PL on how much doctors should make?
LikeLike
McWing;
How much should doctors make?
If access to health care is a right, then doctors shouldn’t make anything. They owe their services as a matter of moral obligation, not as a negotiated quid pro quo.
LikeLike
“What’s the consensus at PL on how much doctors should make?”
Same as Europe of course.
LikeLike
“If we ever reach the point where American doctors have been squeezed so badly that they start fleeing north of the border to get higher pay in Canada, then we’ve squeezed too hard. Until that happens, forget about it.”
Someone needs to explain concierge medicine to Yglesias
Hoever, to give him his due, this is exactly right:
“What we really ought to be doing is working to further pressure the incomes of doctors through supply-side reforms. That means letting nurse practitioners treat patients without kicking a slice upstairs to an M.D., letting more doctors immigrate to the United States, and opening more medical schools.”
LikeLike
jnc:
Hoever, to give him his due, this is exactly right:
Yes, it is, but I don’t give him much credit for that, because he doesn’t advocate for it out of any principle, but rather only because it will help him achieve his immediate goal of reducing doctor’s income. Anyone who speaks admiringly about government deliberately “squeezing” someone’s income doesn’t deserve much respect.
LikeLike
That means letting nurse practitioners treat patients without kicking a slice upstairs to an M.D.
hmm.
http://www.despair.com/consulting.html
LikeLike
My money’s on the AMA keeping things the way they are. The PL lefties support trade guilds right?
LikeLike
“AMA keeping things the way they are”
I think the AMA is going to lose this one. not immediately. the nurses are organized and effective. and everyone loves them. the docs are divided and pointing at each other — primary care v specialists.
LikeLike
the WH just put out a report titled “trends in health care cost growth and the ACA”
one of the bullet points: The ACA is contributing to the recent slow growth in health care prices and spending and is improving quality of care
place your bests on how quickly it gets regurgitated
LikeLike
Scott, I don’t care why people advocate for free market solutions, only that they do so.
If they end up doing the right thing for the wrong reasons, it’s fine with me.
LikeLike
jnc:
Scott, I don’t care why people advocate for free market solutions, only that they do so.
My point is that he isn’t advocating for a “free market” solution. He doesn’t give a crap about the free market. He is advocating for any solution that will achieve his desired end, and because of that, I have no respect for his support of the right policy even if political cynicism would lead me to welcome that support (and it probably would). Maybe I am just nitpicking, but I don’t think people deserve props for inadvertantly stumbling on the right policy for exactly the wrong reasons.
LikeLike
Applied for two FDA jobs today (GS12/13 level). I was contacted about the postings by the guy who’s going to be doing the hiring, so I’m taking that as a good sign. Keep yer fingers crossed.
LikeLike
NoVA:
This comment popped up on PL. Do you have any knowledge one way or the other?
Watch the hospital lobbyists in the state capitols. The hospitals are freaking out.
LikeLike
BTW, had dinner with my out-of-town friend in your neck of the woods last night (Ray’s The Steak). Excellent recommendation–thanks!
LikeLike
Good luck Michi on the FDA jobs.
LikeLike
good luck Michi
LikeLike
Best of luck Michi!
LikeLike
O-care forces people to take a government handout, even if they don’t want it.
Before ObamaCare, Medicaid was one option. Not the option. Before this, she had never been, in effect, ordered to take a handout. Now she has been forced to join the government-reliant poor, though she would prefer to contribute her two mites. The authorities behind “affordable care” had erased her right to calculate what she was willing to spend to preserve her dignity—to determine what she thinks is affordable.
That little contribution can mean the difference between dignity and despair.
For the truly poor, being institutionally forced to take welfare is demoralizing. The Affordable Care Act is at risk of systematizing learned helplessness by telling individuals like my mother that they cannot afford to care for themselves in the way they could before the law was enacted. “This makes me feel poorer than ever,” she said.
LikeLike
Scott, that which is not forbidden is mandatory.
LikeLike
McWing:
Scott, that which is not forbidden is mandatory.
That is exactly where progressivism is taking us. How long before this makes its way to the US?
LikeLike
I’m pretty sure there are some districts here where students are forbidden to even bring their own lunch, so as to not stigmatize those receiving free lunches.
Besides, isn’t nutrition too important to entrust parents with? Geez, what are you, a wingnut?
LikeLike
Michi
Hospitals agreed to cuts in DSH payments based on the assumption that there would be fewer uninsured. If the number of uninsured doesn’t change they still get cut. The cuts in DSH are factored into the projected savings. Cost shifting more like it. Regardless they want to either reverse the cuts or expand Medicaid.
They’re not freaking out though. No more than usual.
Dsh = disproportionate share hospital. Google that for how the formula works.
And good luck with FDA.
LikeLike