Morning Report – NFIB Small Business Pessimism Report 10/08/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1669.2 1.5 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2919.6 -3.5 -0.12%
Oil (WTI) 103.5 0.4 0.43%
LIBOR 0.244 0.000 0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.98 0.034 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.65% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.5 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.9 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.27
Markets are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Earnings season kicks off after the close with Alcoa.
China and Japan are warning the US not to default on its debt. China holds just under 1.3 trillion of US Treasuries. Beijing warned that “the clock is ticking” and urged Washington to get its act together to “ensure the safety of the Chinese investments.” The White House says it is open to a short-term increase in the debt ceiling, which may allow us to kick the debt ceiling can to the end of the year while we figure out the government shutdown. However, both sides are dug in, with the White House insisting on a clean debt ceiling increase, and John Boehner insisting that some spending cuts have to be a part of any deal.
Corelogic is reporting there were 48,000 completed foreclosures in August, down 34% year-over-year and up 1.3% from July.The shadow inventory is estimated to be 1.9 million homes. 2.1 million mortgages, or 5.3% of all mortgages are seriously delinquent, the lowest level since November 2008. The Northeast, Florida, and Nevada have the highest foreclosed inventory.
Corelogic also released its 2013 mortgage fraud report. They estimated that $10.5 billion of mortgage applications had fraudulent information in the first half of 2013. The mortgage fraud index decreased 5.6% nationally on a year-over-year basis. They identify six types of fraud – employment, identity, income, occupancy, property, and undisclosed debt. Income fraud is the highest risk, while property fraud is the lowest.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses say that optimism fell in September as pessimism about future business conditions increased. Small business optimism is still well below pre-crisis levels. Keep this in mind when you start hearing blowout earnings numbers from the S&P 500 companies. Many of them are overseas earning stories and you shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from their strength.
Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

27 Responses

  1. The real debt ceiling fear sets in:

    “And the truth is that there is some real uncertainty about exactly what happens if we hit the ceiling. I think the administration has made a tactical error by putting all the weight of its warnings on the financial consequences; we might have a Lehman-type event, but we might not, and if it turns out not, the administration will have hurt its credibility. ”

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/08/default-deniers/

    Like

  2. In what rational world can they still have credibility?

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  3. The funny thing (or not depending on your perspective) is that even with the government shut down, we have reduced our deficit only by half.

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  4. obama hasn’t lost Jon Stewart on anyone else. When push comes to shove the media will always fall in line with him. It isn’t about obama as much as it is that they agree with his ideology. The struggle is more important than who is actually president.

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    • Brent:

      When push comes to shove the media will always fall in line with him.

      I generally agree with that, but to have Jon Stewart implicitly advocating for a R talking point (individual mandate vs business mandate) and wondering out loud whether Kathleen Sebelius is lying to him about Obamacare, particularly in the context of the current budget faceoff over it, strikes me as a significant event.

      Like

  5. Scott, I hope you are right, but I am as pessimistic as they come about media bias

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  6. Nice Fisking of the Sebillius / Stewart interview.

    http://thefederalist.com/2013/10/08/the-daily-show-sebelius-swings-and-misses/

    Bottom line though, both of them want the NHS.

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  7. Good!

    @markknoller Boenher spokesman says Pres Obama phoned @SpeakerBoehner to reiterate no negotiations on funding or Debt Limit bills.

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  8. “Bottom line though, both of them want the NHS.”

    then they are fools. either make market reforms, or start treating people like you do a lame horse.

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  9. The definition of essential personnel is expanding. A lawyer friend of mine who works for SSA just got called back from furlough.

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  10. Heh.

    @brithume: Shorter Obama: You give up all your bargaining leverage, then I’ll talk with you.

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  11. I hope a Obama called Boehner today to tell him he’s not going to negotiate with him.

    And also to let him know that if he doesn’t know what’s wrong, he’s NOT going to tell him.

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    • Just watched Obama’s press conference. In short: “I think negotiation and compromise are very important. That is what my tenure, and indeed my whole career, has been about. Negotiation and compromise are absolutely essential for a functioning government. Therefore I have no intention of negotiating or compromising with the R’s until they agree to my terms.”

      It is actually quite amazing the amount of absolute nonsense that comes out of Obama’s mouth without the assembled press corp batting an eye. Is there any doubt that the list of reporters in front of him from which he called for questions was vetted for friendly reporters? This clown wouldn’t stand a chance in front of a skeptical and challenging press corp.

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  12. It will be interesting to see if they actually allow Sarvis in the final debate on October 24th if he hits 15%.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/politico-poll-government-shutdown-backlash-terry-mcauliffe-ken-cuccinelli-virginia-governor-election-97953.html

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  13. “This clown wouldn’t stand a chance in front of a skeptical and challenging press corp.”

    Reporters are just stenographers when a democrat is in the white house

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    • I just saw a newsflash that Dan Snyder has decided that the name of his football team is too much of an embarrassment, and has finally relented to changing it. The new name….the Maryland Redskins.

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  14. Jnc. Is 15% the cutoff. I heard this morning he was at 12.

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  15. Hmmmmm.

    @derekahunter: It’s rather telling that @BarackObama has told “journalists” at least 3 times in this that they’ve made great points in their questions.

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  16. Oh the humanity!

    In the West Wing, only a scaled-back menu is available at the White House mess.

    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/shutdown-takes-its-toll-white-house-operations

    ((Shudder))

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  17. “novahockey, on October 8, 2013 at 2:59 pm said:

    Jnc. Is 15% the cutoff. I heard this morning he was at 12.”

    That’s what I’ve read.

    “If the event is for statewide or national office (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, U.S. Senator, or U.S. Representative) the LWV VA will require that candidates be significant candidates. A significant candidate has made a public announcement of the intention to run; has a campaign headquarters and staff; has issued position papers; has made campaign appearances; and, within 30 days of the event, has shown at least a 15% ranking in a major, nonpartisan poll. If requested, the candidate must provide proof of meeting the above conditions.”

    http://www.lwv-va.org/files/elections/debate-guidelines.pdf

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  18. For you NoVA

    “The 10 Percenters
    With an eye on the third debate, Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert Sarvis draws the disillusioned.
    by Tom Nash

    Sarvis, who had $20,000 in his campaign account at the end of August, was polling at 10 percent before the spot ran. Its pitch-perfect timing was the only real news to come out of the debate. If Sarvis still pulls double-digit poll numbers on Thursday, organizers of the final debate Oct. 24 at Virginia Tech say the rules allow him to participate.”

    http://www.styleweekly.com/richmond/the-10-percenters/Content?oid=1964556

    Like

    • Nova/jnc:

      I will make a pledge to you. If a libertarian candidate ever wins a governorship, I will no longer consider a vote for libertarians to be a wasted vote (or worse) and I will from then on vote libertarian.

      Like

  19. What it looks like when you shift the debate:

    “What Federal Spending Are We Better Off Without?
    What have we learned, seven months into sequestration and one week into a government shutdown?
    Updated October 8, 2013 8:51 PM”

    http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/10/08/what-federal-spending-are-we-better-off-without

    Like

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