Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1637.0 | -2.1 | -0.13% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2727.4 | -25.9 | -0.94% |
| Oil (WTI) | 107.8 | -0.8 | -0.73% |
| LIBOR | 0.259 | -0.001 | -0.19% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.29 | -0.073 | -0.09% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.86% | 0.00% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.6 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.8 | 0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.54 |
Should be a slow day with not much economic data and the Jewish holiday. Mortgage applications rose 1.3% last week. bonds and MBS are flat
Construction spending rose .6% last month and is up 5.2% year over year. Residential construction is up .6% month over month and 17.2% year-over-year. We are definitely seeing signs of life in the homebuilding sector, although the first time homebuyer is getting a bit of sticker shock from the higher rates. Pulte noted on their 2Q conference call that buyers at the lower price points (read the first time homebuyer) are backing away a bit. Toll Brothers (which is in the McMansion business) reported that the luxury homebuyer is unfazed by higher rates.
CoreLogic reported that home prices increased 12.4% year over year and and now within 18% of their April 2006 peak. Every state reported a year-over-year increase in prices if you exclude distressed sales. While they predict that August’s increase will be similar to July’s, they anticipate the appreciation to stall as seasonal demand wanes and people start to feel the effects of higher rates. As usual, the hardest hit states are reporting the strongest recoveries.
Yesterday’s ISM report showed strength in manufacturing. While manufacturing isn’t the driver of the economy that it used to be, it still matters quite a lot. The reading of 55.7 corresponds to a GDP growth rate of over 4%. Unfortunately, while manufacturing output is up quite a bit, manufacturing employment is not. Auto sales are up around the 16MM range, which is approaching pre-crisis levels. The average US car is around 11 years old, so we are due for a upgrade cycle. That will be bullish for the economy.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Brent, is the home price indicative of another bubble?
LikeLike
Breathtaking.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-i-didnt-set-red-line-syria_752712.html
This dude’s making me yearn for the halcyon days of the Carter years.
At least then, the tennis court was well managed.
LikeLike
The Baltimore Ravens have decided to ignore the Senate Republicans’ call for no help on spreading the word on how to sign up for Obamacare:
Baltimore plays Denver Thursday night; you can catch the game on NBC. Go Ravens!!
LikeLike
McWing:
tennis court
On PL yesterday we decided it was a hockey game. NoVA, jnc and Brent can give you the details, but it involves an infra-red line.
LikeLike
Protip:
Women loved to be told “calm down” during a debate or argument.
LikeLike
Brent, is the home price indicative of another bubble?
I don’t think so. Bubbles are psychological phenomenons where almost everybody (buyers, lenders, pundits) believe an asset can never go down.
We saw that during the stock market bubble, where you had books like Dow 40,000 and the conventional wisdom was that if you buy quality companies you will always come out ahead in the long run. Tell that to someone who paid $70+ for Cisco (CSCO) in the late 90s. Actually, they would have been better off with Sysco (SYY).
We saw that in the real estate market several years ago, with similar arguments: “They aren’t making any more land” and “housing is the safest investment you can make.” Tell that to someone who bought spec developments in the desert outside Vegas or in Stockton.
People now know that housing can fall and people know that stocks can and do fall for extended periods of time. We will never see another housing bubble, but our grandkids might.
LikeLike
Tweet of the Day!
@GPollowitz: this is Bush’s red line. I inherited this red-line. This isn’t the red-line I thought I knew. Let me be clear, this red-line isn’t mine.
LikeLike
Oh my.
http://reason.com/blog/2013/09/04/rand-pauls-syria-amendment-would-declare
LikeLike
Oh FFS.
@politicoroger: B. Clinton: Obamacare “is the law. Elected officials are sworn to uphold the law.”
LikeLike
Moar Republican Racism! Imagine,actually quoting Obama the Campaigner!
@DavidMDrucker: RT @OKnox: Senate Foreign Relations Committee sets aside Sen. Paul’s “war powers”-echo amendment re: #Syria. 14-5 vote.
Good Day Sir!
LikeLike
Why does the author, a black man, think that increased white attendance will help poor performing schools? What magical powers do white parents have? How are the public schools in white dominated Appalachia? Pretty shitty I bet.
Most have chosen the whitest possible option instead of schools that desperately need to be integrated.
Anyhoo, his posting’s a pretty good donkey punch at the Anti-School Choicers.
http://citizenstewart.org/school-choice-and-the-unlovely-threat-to-democracy/
LikeLike
Here is Magan McArdle reiterating Hayek’s Knowledge Problem.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/frederik-pohl-s-great-fiction-and-sketchy-economics.html
LikeLike
I just created a google map of schools we’re considering.
2 private
1 public
84 catholicLikeLike
nova:
If you want to increase your chances of having a Golden Domer, choose the catholic school. It definitely matters.
LikeLike
What happens to Senator Elizabeth Warren’s fundraising and status on the left if she votes for Obama’s bombing of brown people?
If He needs her vote will she give it?
http://www.wbur.org/2013/09/04/markey-warren-syria
Ed Markey was a profile in courage today, no? Kerry’s home state Senators really have his back.
LikeLike
Kerry voted against Iraq I. He was wrong then.
However, the Iraq I debate was full and very much an education for me and anyone else, I think, who watched it.
Was there a Syria debate in the Senate or did the Senate just fashion a resolution by the leadership?
I haven’t been keeping score. Busy.
LikeLike
There is no debate going on, just modifying O’s resolution. I’m sure it’ll pass 51-49. House is where action’ll be.
Kerry a Hagel are absolutely awful in hearings. That is an objective fact.
LikeLike
Correction, require 60 votes in Senate. Could be fun to watch. I’m keen to see what Fauxcohontas and Markey do. Also Wyden though I don’t think there’s any love lost between him and Obama.
LikeLike
Fauxcohontas
Lol. That’s good. Is that yours or did you steal it?
LikeLike
Stole that from Legal Insurrection I think.
LikeLike
Scott, you make a good point about Catholic school and a potential ND application. He’d be legacy too.
one of the schools is run by nuns from outside of Philadelphia.
LikeLike
Actually, “Fauxcohontas” came from Scott Brown when he was running against her.
He was using it pejoratively, and it really isn’t funny.
LikeLike
and it really isn’t funny.
And here I thought I was gaining ground on that problem of having no sense of humor.
LikeLike
What was deeply insulting was Senator Warren’s cynical use of it to land a plum Harvard gig and then drop it when it no longer served a useful purpose. She deserved the derision then and now. I’m curious to see her vote on Obama’s demand to bomb more brown people. As well as Markey’s.
I’ve realized that Senator Reid’s putting it up for a vote w/ a 60 vote requirement is an attempt to invite a filibuster so D’s don’t have to vote on it. I don’t think he’ll get a bite. Remember, the Iraq votes only required a majority. Reid absolutely does not want to put his caucus through this.
LikeLike
What was deeply insulting was Senator Warren’s cynical use of it to land a plum Harvard gig
False, but a handy right wing meme:
LikeLike
I don’t believe her.
LikeLike
Will she vote to bomb brown people? If so, what does the base think about it?
LikeLike
Your choice, and since you’re really just trolling, I couldn’t care less.
LikeLike
Yes and yes.
LikeLike