Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1692.7 | 2.4 | 0.14% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2739.6 | 14.2 | 0.52% |
| Oil (WTI) | 105.8 | -1.1 | -1.06% |
| LIBOR | 0.266 | 0.001 | 0.45% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.28 | 0.058 | 0.07% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.52% | 0.04% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.6 | -0.2 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 104.1 | -0.2 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.3 |
Markets are slightly higher on a mixed bag of earnings and emerging Asia strength. Bonds and MBS are victims of the risk on trade.
The FHFA House Price Index rose .7% in May, and about 7.3% year-over-year. The FHFA House Price index is based on houses that have a conforming mortgage attached to it, so it eliminates the highly distressed sales and the high end of the market. This makes it more of a “central tendency” index than Case-Schiller. We are still seeing a wide geographical dispersion of increases, with the East Coast lagging while the West Coast is hitting big numbers.
Fannie Mae is predicting that mortgage rate will average 4.7% in Q4, about 40 basis points higher than their June forecast. They are predicting 2013 GDP will come in around 2% and will hit 2.6% in 2015. Home Sales are forecast to increase 8% in 2013. While they have yet to adjust sales forecasts to the new interest rate regime, they are watching it closely.
Professional (read cash) investors are stepping away from the real estate market as prices continue to rise. Investor traffic fell in June for the fourth straight month. Perhaps rising prices are to blame, but perhaps private equity and hedge funds are realizing that achieving high single-digit rental yields is harder than it looks and takes more than a couple smart guys out of New York to make it happen.
Filed under: Morning Report |

OT to Michi: http://reason.com/archives/2013/05/19/a-new-kind-of-republican
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Anthony Weiner is apparently determined to find out just how stupid NYC voters are.
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http://gawker.com/heres-anthony-weiners-weird-sexting-press-conference-886951868
I think we have a candidate for perfection, here. The Perfect Fool.
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I am interested in everyone’s take on Summers as Fed Chair.
http://tinyurl.com/mr8b8oc
I know Brent thought it would be Yellen. Full disclosure: I hoped never to hear the name Larry Summers again. But I am willing to defer to Brent on this and probably to Scott, as well.
My concerns about Summers have to do with his irascible personality and his eagerness to deregulate in the 90s. I also think he might continue to pump out money in preference to dollar stability even in an inflationary setting.
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Mark:
I am interested in everyone’s take on Summers as Fed Chair.
I don’t really have much of an opinion/preference either way. From a political perspective I’m a little surprised that Summers is looking more and more likely, but I can’t make a heartfelt argument that it should be Yellen over Summers or vice-versa.
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Another piece on employers capping hours to avoid the Obamacare mandates.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/health-care-law-is-tied-to-new-caps-on-work-hours-for-part-timers/2013/07/23/e6272544-e96a-11e2-aa9f-c03a72e2d342_story.html
Worth noting that no one is falling for the one year delay:
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He’s a real charmer isn’t he? Why in the world would anyone vote for him? He even made the 5:00 news here in CA.
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Mark: yes, he is. I don’t understand it at all, but I’ll be honest and say that, even more than that, I don’t understand his wife.
This is the second time he’s been exposed (so to speak) publicly and she’s standing by him? Again? HE’S CHEATING ON YOU, HUMA.
For goodness’ sake, get some self respect.
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Huma reminds me of someone. Can’t quite put my Fi get on who…
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Heh.
http://minx.cc/?post=341895
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This guy is a real charmer. They say they won’t fire him but if he was on my payroll he’d be gone in a skinny minute. And not because he picked on liberals either. Someone needs anger management training or a straight jacket.
Anthony Weiner isn’t the only one finding out that you cannot run and hide after posting on facebook or you tube or even just emailing under a fake handle. Anyone catch Geraldo Rivera’s beauty?
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/07/23/pennsylvania-police-chief-fck-all-you-libtards-out-there-you-take-it-in-the-a/
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Yves Smith over at Naked Capitalism on Larry Summers.
I’ve been gobsmacked to see that not only is Larry Summers on various short lists of candidates to become the next Fed chairman, but that Summers is also supposedly closing in on the favorite, Janet Yellen.
In early 2012, Summers was lobbying hard to become the head of the World Bank and didn’t get the nod. The fact that he is now under consideration for a bigger job should set alarm bells off. While Paul Krugman weighs in on both, concluding that Yellen would be the better pick, he’s still far kinder to Summers than the Harvard economist deserves.
The big problem with Summers is not his record on deregulation (although that’s bad enough) or his foot-in-mouth remarks about women in math, or for suggesting that African countries would make for good toxic waste dumps. No, it’s his appalling record the one time he was in a leadership position, as president of Harvard. Summers was unquestionably the worst leader in Harvard’s history.
Summers, unduly impressed with his own economic credentials, overruled two successive presidents of Harvard Management Corporation (the in-house fund management operation chock full of well qualified and paid money managers that invest the Harvard endowment). Not content to let the pros have all the fun, Summers insisted on gambling with the university’s operating funds, which are the monies that come in every year (tuition and board payments, government grants, the payments out of the endowment allotted to the annual budget). His risk-taking left the University with over $2 billion in losses and unwind costs and forced wide-spread budget cuts, even down to getting rid of hot breakfasts.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/07/why-larry-summers-should-not-be-permitted-to-run-anything-more-important-than-a-dog-pound.html
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NoVA: thanks for the article on Amash. Since he only became an Ayn Rand fan four years ago, he may grow out of it yet!
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Re: Weiner .. I can’t find it, but someone (Jonah Golderg, Instapundit?) tweeted out …. yes, it’s hard to believe that the Clinton’s proteges would turn out to be a philandering liar and a women who stands by her man so that she might one day drive the bus.
or something to that effect.
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“Stand By Your Man” is entirely over rated.
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not if you want to be POTUS one day.
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Setting the clock on Wiener tearfully admitting his ‘addiction’ and entering rehab. The guy has got a problem but it’s not medical. The amazing part is that he seems to have been trading smutty photos with an actual woman. I didn’t think those actually existed on these dirty talk boards. How do any of these sexters know they are dealing with real people? I’m shocked he didn’t get catfished.
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I can’t sign in over on WaPo (problems with their site–imagine that!), but I saw your comment about not having cable, NoVA. Try Wiziwig; I haven’t tried them for anything other than sports, but they’re really good at that. It’s a site that caters largely to expats in Europe, so the anchors are often from Sky (in the UK, right Scott?) but even the commercials are better.
Mark also knows of a website, but I can’t find it right now–I thought I had it bookmarked, but maybe not on this computer.
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I think Sky runs satellite TV in several places around the world, but the UK is definitely one, called BSkyB (British Sky Broadcasting), which is the one I am familiar with.
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yello:
It’s going to turn out that the “woman” is really Manti Te’o, just you wait. . .
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thanks for the tip on wizwig, michi.
i found that I don’t miss ESPN or sports talk at all. I watch the game, and that’s it. and if I miss it, highlights are online almost immediately.
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That’s the one, Scott!
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jnc may have already posted this here, but an interesting take on the Yellen vs Summers thing:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/19/the-subtle-sexist-whispering-campaign-against-janet-yellen/
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I don’t necessarily buy the sexism argument. It’s more that her inflation stance is outside the mainstream consensus. Krugman wouldn’t have a chance either.
Edit: If you didn’t see this link at PL, it’s worth a read:
http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/yellen-summers-and-rebuilding-after-fire
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