Morning Report – Affordability remains high 7/16/13

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1676.7 -0.8 -0.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2667.9 -18.8 -0.70%
Oil (WTI) 106.9 0.6 0.55%
LIBOR 0.266 -0.001 -0.52%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.74 -0.299 -0.36%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.54% 0.00%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2 -1.3  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.6 0.0  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 202.5 -0.5  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.45    
Markets are flattish after the consumer price index came in more or less in line with expectations and Goldman beat earnings estimates. Bonds and MBS are flat as we await the Bearded One tomorrow morning.
 
Re Bernanke’s testimony, the Washington Post is saying the Fed will be delaying debate over unwinding QE amid concerns over how the markets will react. One interesting concern, from Richmond Fed Jeffrey Lacker, is that the Fed will experience capital losses on its holdings of mortgage backed securities, and could find itself in a position where it makes no money (or even experiences losses), which will raise public and Congressional scrutiny. Want a proxy for the Fed’s balance sheet?  Take a gander at the chart of Agency Mortgage REIT American Capital (AGNC). They hold a levered portfolio of agency fixed and adjustable rate mortgage backed securities. The stock is down a third since rates started going up in early May.
 

 
Mortgage REITs like AGNC or Annaly (NLY)  are unloading mortgage-backed securities as rates increase. This is largely due to margin requirements, although interest rate hedging plays a part. As the value of their holdings drops, which is what is happening as rates increase, the banks that provide them leverage will demand more capital. The REITs can either raise capital in the private markets (which isn’t going to happen) or they can raise capital by selling their inventory. The thing to remember is that the margin clerk doesn’t care if the mortgage backed securities are overvalued or undervalued. The margin clerk will hit whatever bid is available if the company doesn’t sell the merchandise themselves. That is how you get these air pockets like we had on July 5, where the we set record highs on mortgage rates and the 10 year yields. As mortgage REITs de-lever, you can expect rate volatility. Floating in this environment can be a little hairy. 
 
CoreLogic’s latest Market Pulse makes the argument that in spite of the recent rise in house prices and rates, housing affordability is still elevated compared to historical numbers. They dismiss (as do I) the notion that we are back in a bubble or are even close to one. Bubbles are psychological events where everyone gets this idea that an asset price cannot fall. We will not experience another real estate bubble, although our great-grandkids might. Here is Corelogic’s chart on affordability:
 

 
Based on the weak retail sales numbers yesterday (headline +4% vs expectations of +.8%, ex-autos flat vs expectations of + .5%), a number of sell-side firms took down their 2Q GDP estimates a hair. We will get the preliminary estimate of 2Q GDP in a couple of weeks.
 
Freddie Mac’s mid-year update gives a forecast for the rest of 2013. Punch line: home price appreciation will slow, but remain positive, the labor market will continue the pace of the first half of the year, home sales up 2% and starts up 12% from the first half, and mortgage rates will continue to rise. Will the rise in mortgage rates stall the housing recovery? They anticipate it won’t, because affordability still remains high.

58 Responses

  1. Shocking. But using the IRS to enforce Obamacare is totally workable. It’s not like they’ll have access to really, ya know, personal information.

    http://p.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/15/feds-admit-improper-scrutiny-candidate-donor-tax-r/

    Deep breaths you paranoid wingnuts!

    Like

    • George, last night in my Monday night men’s group the tax lawyer and successful entrepreneur thought some new TV show was funny b/c a character called the TEA party the “American Taliban”.

      I said I found that objectionable. Like pulling the Hitler-Nazi card. He told me all the bad stuff he attributes to the TEA Party. I then listed the bad stuff I attribute to the Taliban, like beheadings, torture, and burning down schools after locking the girls inside.

      Later, the appraiser in the group, a R, thanked me because he was getting so hot under the color that he could not speak.
      —————————
      Lulu, glad your kid is OK.

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  2. bah. looks like my place might appraise. why it didn’t’ a month ago is beyond me.

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  3. Thanks Mark. Political opposition is not evil, just different and, in my opinion, not as efficient at protecting liberty.

    Am I wrong in believing this? Does anybody here think that their political opponents are evil? No wrong answer, just curious.

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  4. Just thought I’d let y’all know I’m going to be gone until Sunday. We’re heading out manana for Vegas (yay black jack) and then meeting our daughter in Cedar City, UT for dinner Friday night. Hahaha, we’re also picking up her dog to bring home with us for awhile. She’s going to be gone for almost 3 weeks next month and her boyfriend will be working in FL so the poor doggie needs a home. Lucky girl is climbing Kilimanjaro and going on safari.

    Daughter number one wasn’t ever in any danger, luckily she heads home before dark and will take a different, more circuitous route today…………….hope cooler heads will prevail today anyway.

    See y’all next week.

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  5. George, what did you mean in the clause “not as efficient at protecting liberty”? I am guessing that you meant something along the lines of “liberty is best served by non-violent but rigorous debate.”

    With which I would whole heartedly agree.

    Brent, I own a traditional REIT that is seemingly heading back to its glory days, slowly but steadily. I take it mortgage REITs are not owners of real property, but only of paper?

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    • Yesterday I was asking about why abortion clinics in Texas did not already have to comply with the same standards that other outpatient surgery facilities have to comply with. I still don’t know the answer, but in doing some research I found this from the Texas State Department of Health:

      The Texas Ambulatory Surgical Center Licensing Act was first enacted in 1985 by the 69th Legislature. Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASCs) are commonly referred to as “day surgery centers.” An ASC must provide surgical services as its primary service. ASCs do not provide overnight or inpatient care. Care is provided on an out-patient basis.

      I wonder if maybe abortion clinics have been able to get around these licensing requirements by claiming that surgical abortions are not its “primary” service. I also wonder, if these regulations are not necessary to keep abortion clinics safe, why they would be necessary to keep other types of clinics safe. Why, for example, should the Abilene Cataract and Refractive Surgery Center have to bear the costs of complying with these standards if Abortion Advantage does not?

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  6. Mark, I mean that the more a society moves left, the less liberty there is. For example, believing that healthcare is a state guaranteed right is not immoral but it does reduce liberty.

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  7. ” thought some new TV show was funny b/c a character called the TEA party the “American Taliban””

    That of course is Aaron Sorkin’s HBO series The Newsroom, which has been almost universally panned by critics for it’s bad writing, especially with regards to the female characters.

    The show’s premise is that if the news was covered properly (from Sorkin’s perspective), none of the bad things that the Tea Party does would be possible because Americans would reject their policies, properly exposed.

    The amusing thing is how many of the critics characterize their behavior as “hate watching”, meaning that they watch the show now just so they can complain about how bad it is.

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  8. Plus I read the “American Taliban” line used all the time. See PL for several daily examples.

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  9. “heading out manana for Vegas (yay black jack) ”

    if you get and need a break form the tables, the Neon Museum is worth a visit.
    http://www.neonmuseum.org/

    and http://www.chinapoblano.com/index.php/menu at the cosmopolitan is a favorite

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  10. @Mark,

    As a general rule, REITs stick with mainly holding mortgage backed securities. However, some do focus on distressed MBS and would deal with foreclosed properties.

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  11. Thanks Nova, we’ve been to the neon museum at night (of course) and loved it. I’ve been going to Vegas since I was a little kid and love the lights anyway. And the menu from the restaurant looks interesting and right up my alley with lots of vegetarian dishes. If we don’t make it there this time, maybe next time.

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  12. Good stuff on Ace today. These two takes on the soon to be R reaming on the filibuster stand out. I’m in the Get Rid of it Altogether group.

    http://minx.cc/?post=341681

    http://minx.cc/?post=341678

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    • McWing:

      I’m in the Get Rid of it Altogether group.

      Me too. The transparent hypocrisy on both sides regarding this issue would be stunning if we were talking about anyone other than completely shameless and conscienceless politicians. R’s should have done it in ’05. They should dare Reid to do it now.

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  13. Brent, I have thought that when Invesco says it owns securities in Simon Properties it means it has direct equity. No?

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  14. @Mark, Simon Property is a commercial REIT. I thought you were talking about residential mortgage REITs like Annaly or American Capital. Simon would probably own equity, but I am not a commercial REIT analyst.

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  15. I also would like to see the filibuster go away. Are there many folks among the general public that really want to keep it, I wonder?

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  16. Republicans totally caved on the executive branch nominations. Here’s my take from PL:

    Charles Pierce got this wrong, but it’s interesting that part of Reid’s plan apparently was to appeal to McCain’s ego.

    “John McCain Believes He Is President
    By Charles P. Pierce at 5:30PM”

    http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/John_McCain_Believes_He_Is_President

    This specifically is what Pierce got wrong:

    “No, John, nobody in the administration is going to let you play president for a day and staff the NLRB.”

    Yes, they will if that’s what it takes to get a deal.

    A more sophisticated Republican opposition could get 95% of what it wanted on policy if it was willing to cut a deal. Tea Party intransigence is saving the administration from it’s own worst instincts on wanting a deal for the sake of having a deal, regardless of the merits.

    With regards to McCain, he is getting the accolades from the Democrats and the media on his statesmanship, etc. It completely validates his self image.

    This is exactly the sort of stunt he tried to do when he suspended his campaign to save America from the financial crisis by going to Washington to help cut a deal. The problem there is that the financial crisis actually required some understanding of economics and finance so all he accomplished was to make himself look like an idiot.

    When it comes to the banalities of Senate rules and procedures, he can look like Solomon.

    Greg’s piece is actually good, as are a few others:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/16/by-standing-firm-dems-win-nuclear-standoff-though-filibuster-remains/

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/07/15/new-gop-rhetoric-on-nominees-is-stupid-reid-should-take-it-anyway/

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/16/the-senate-didnt-go-nuclear-but-actually-it-kind-of-did/

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  17. @ScottC: “I also wonder, if these regulations are not necessary to keep abortion clinics safe, why they would be necessary to keep other types of clinics safe.”

    I’m hazarding guess here that either (a) prochoice folks consider any requirements being put on any abortion clinic for any reason an attempt to roll back the clock and the fact that it’s often anti-abortion groups pushing for such regulations or supervision probably confirms their suspicions, or (b) they are worried regulations designed to protect the patient might be broadly interpreted by some judges, when certain lawsuits are brought, to apply to the fetus, not just the mother, thus offering a way of quasi-outlawing abortion through the back door.

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    • Kevin:

      I’m hazarding guess here that either (a) prochoice folks consider any requirements being put on any abortion clinic for any reason an attempt to roll back the clock and the fact that it’s often anti-abortion groups pushing for such regulations or supervision probably confirms their suspicions

      That sounds right to me. But the original point remains. As an objective matter, if the standards are not needed to protect the safety of surgical abortion out-patients, they are probably not needed to protect the safety of out-patients for lots of other procedures, but those others are forced to follow them anyway. On the other hand, if they really are necessary to protect the safety of out-patients for other procedures, they are almost certainly just as necessary for surgical abortion patients, but abortion providers are not forced to follow them. So either we have a situation in which there is too much government regulation creating unnecessary costs for all kinds of medical procedures, or we have a situation in which the safety of abortion patients is not being properly protected so that abortion providers can keep their costs low. Neither strikes me as a good outcome.

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      • but those others are forced to follow them anyway.

        NO, NO, NO. We have several levels of treatment facilities and ASCs are just below hospitals. Many ASCs are attached to hospitals. Look at the regulation I linked.
        Abortion clinics already had tighter controls than doctor’s offices where outpatient surgery is done routinely. Minor Emergency Clinics had another set of rules. Birthing centers have separate regs. Its a whole framework that is supposed to put cheaper easier stuff in cheaper easier locations and decentralize from hospitals. ASCs are one very profitable part of that, but they are for cut and stitch surgeries.

        Addendum: ASCs can do lesser included stuff, too. But they must be set up to keep a patient as long as 23 hours. I don’t think a lasik doc has to qualify his office as an ASC. No 23 hour recovery rooms that I know of, no halls wide enough for two gurneys to pass, none of that near hospital stuff.

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        • Mark:

          Look at the regulation I linked.

          I did, as you should know since I reproduced here how an ASC was defined by those regs. It was extremely broad and seemed to me to encompass both what an abortion clinic does and what a lasik eye clinic does. I am willing to believe you if you say definitively that a lasik center is not encompassed by it, but looking at the legal definition I wonder why not. Which of the types of treatment facilities would a lasik eye surgery facility fall under?

          When I mentioned earlier the Abilene Cataract & Refractive Surgery Center (refractive surgery being lasik) as one that fell under the ASC regulation, I wasn’t just making it up. I got it from the directory of ASC’s which I found on this Texas Dept. of Health website. Here’s another example of a place that is registered as an ASC. It does more than just lasik, things like cataract and glaucoma treatment. But is it really the case that surgical abortions are less invasive, and hence need less stringent safety regs, than cataract and glaucoma procedures? I’m neither an eye doctor nor an obgyn, so maybe, I suppose, but intuitively it doesn’t seem like it would be. This abortion outfit in Texas says that its first trimester abortions can be performed under both local and general anesthesia. Again, I am not a doctor, but my understanding is that going under a general anesthesia is no small deal. Is it really the case that the safety of a cataract operation requires wide hallways for a gurney and a recovery room adequate for up to 23 hours, but going under a “deep” anesthesia in order to get an abortion does not?

          Maybe, but color me very surprised if it is really the case.

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        • This is pretty unbelievable. Or would be if we weren’t already used to the Obama/Holder way of doing “justice”.

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  18. @jnc4p: “The show’s premise is that if the news was covered properly (from Sorkin’s perspective), none of the bad things that the Tea Party does would be possible because Americans would reject their policies, properly exposed.”

    Isn’t that the common premise of the partisan or ideologue? If people only properly understood the issues and knew the full truth, they reason, they would obviously agree with me.

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  19. Well yes. Aaron Sorkin simply has a larger platform than most to try and get away with this.

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  20. @Markinaustin: “I said I found that objectionable. Like pulling the Hitler-Nazi card. He told me all the bad stuff he attributes to the TEA Party. I then listed the bad stuff I attribute to the Taliban, like beheadings, torture, and burning down schools after locking the girls inside.”

    I have heard that phrase many times. I’ve noted that folks who are very far left or right, and who tend to avoid exposure to points of view they disagree with (either by avoiding exposure completely, or interpreting anything through a lens that prevents any challenge to their views) tend to want to call names, and make hyperbolic associations as regards their ideological opponents. I’ve heard liberals and conservatives both called Nazis more times than I can count, but I note that there aren’t many similarities between either group and Nazis, when it comes down to it. You have to take it to the: “conservatives/liberals eat food, just like the Nazis” level. Meaning it’s usually a reference to some Nazi-party stance on something general that has been shared by dozens of political parties since that the comparison is based on, with the unstated implication that because the Nazis said something about healthcare or also advocated “cracking down on crime” it means that conservatives or liberals or an the road to concentration camps or internment camps or whatever.

    The Tea Party may attract a wide swath of folks, some of who are about as far right as you can get in America, but they still ain’t the Taliban.

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  21. @jnc4p: “Well yes. Aaron Sorkin simply has a larger platform than most to try and get away with this.”

    I look forward to Aaron Sorkin’s Steve Jobs biopic (the one not starring Ashton Kutcher, and coming out later). The geeks already have the long knives out for the Kutcher movie as being historically and technically inaccurate (and getting Wozniak one-hundred percent wrong) . . . I don’t expect the Sorkin version will fare much better, even among liberal tech journalists who would normally be very amenable to Sorkin’s slanting. There was grumbling about The Social Network.

    Tech journalists ain’t going to put up with long dolly shots of Jons and Wozniak walking together, talking in clipped staccatos. 😉

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  22. @mcWing: “Does anybody here think that their political opponents are evil?”

    I don’t think so. Clearly, some folks feel that agreeing with certain political viewpoints makes you evil. There are pro-life folks that thing being pro-choice = murder, and thus, if you are pro-life, you are evil (clearly, not all pro-choice folks think that way). There are pro-choice folks who think being pro-life = rape. And that every pro-life person is a potential murderer, prepared to kill any abortion doctor if given half-a-chance. Not all of them, by any means, but I’ve run in to people who associate certain political positions with evil, and the people who espouse them (especially those that do it successfully) with being evil.

    I don’t think this is accurate. Even much of the evil that certain political directions can take come from much more banal intentions; the evil outcomes are often incidental or cumulative. I’m pretty sure even Hitler didn’t start out with the goal of murdering 6 million Jews. Though I think it turned out he was a pretty evil guy.

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  23. ““Does anybody here think that their political opponents are evil?””

    Certainly Cao and RUK think I am…

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    • jnc:

      I’m not sure if one guy making funding decisions qualifies as “the market”.

      Yup. Also, one guy making decisions for a company is not “command and control” in the same sense that the government making decisions for everyone is “command and control”, despite Kruguman’s pretense to the contrary.

      Best line in the whole piece:

      Oliver Williamson (pdf) got a Nobel for helping elucidate some aspects of that issue (although that may not mean much to you, considering some of the people who’ve gotten Nobels).

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  24. @markinaustin: “Kev – I think Kiplinger wrote that Memphis is the cheapest city to live in outside of TX”

    It’s reasonably cheap, and real estate is a steal. No income taxes, but sales taxes are high-ish. (9.25% now, I think, with a fall off over $1600 or something for big ticket purchases). Still, it’s an aspiring Detroit. Can’t tell you how much money this city has wasted on nonsense for tourists, while ignoring one the biggest tourist attractions in the world: Graceland. Instead, we’ve built Mud Island (meh), the Pyramid (abandoned for several years now; Bass Pro is apparently going to make a destination out of it, which will be great, when and if it happens; the city will give away the keys to the kingdom (i.e., huge property tax holidays) to attraction an International Paper, but balk at coming up with some incentives to get Bass Pro into the Pyramid and start cha-chinging sales tax revenues from Mississippi and Arkansas left and right. But I digress.

    Point is, the area around Graceland should be a tourist mecca. If not like the mall in DC, then at least the strip in Gatlinburg. The city could have helped that along, but they don’t much seem to care that Graceland is in Memphis (although surrounded by slums). It never occurs to them to put something out there, near Graceland and the airport. Instead, everything goes downtown (and dies a slow, painful death, way from 80% of the population and in a morass of one way streets and pay parking). And I could go on, but I won’t.

    What was Memphis subsidizing in the years after The King’s death? The area around Graceland, in anticipation of turning a rock ‘n’ roll legend into big business for Memphis? Nope. They were financing an urban amusement park called Libertyland (in part to put Lakeland, an amusement park near the county line and far away from urban bus service, out of business). And the Mid-America Mall (taking one street in downtown, already full of one way streets and crowded driving, and turning it into an open air mall). And building up a glorified sand bar into Mud Island (including an expensive sky-tram thing). Mid-America Mall was a straight-up flop (and Main Street still can’t be driven on, nor can the main portion of Beale Street), Mud Island never turned a profit and not much happens there any more (at first, some people whose names you might recognize played at the open air amphitheater). The Pyramid was a moneypit from the beginning, and may finally turn a profit, twenty-odd years later.

    Yada-yada. I just see us marching to Detroit. Fortunately, other cities in Tennessee are better managed. Love Chattanooga. Nashville is more expensive than Memphis, yes, but you get what you pay for. Knoxville at least is near Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg, and that much closer to Asheville, NC.

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  25. @@markinaustin: BTW, I spent last week in Galveston. First time I’ve been in Texas (other than the Dallas airport in a stopover) since I was 11, maybe? I enjoyed Galveston quite a bit. Not cheap (for a tourist) but good fun, and lots of stuff to do with the kids: Pleasure Pier, Rainforest Cafe, Schlitterbahn Water Park. We didn’t even get around to Moody Gardens. I enjoyed being near the ocean (of course, there were no hurricanes, which makes being near the ocean more pleasant) and miss it, now I’m back in Memphis.

    On the way down, we drove through Mississippi and Louisiana to get to Texas. On the way back, we drove up through Texas (hitting Houston) through to Texarkana, and then back through Arkansas (my first time that I remember driving through Hope, Arkansas, birthplace of President Bill Clinton, though I may have done it as a child). I enjoyed pointing out that we had been in Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas during our little trip, but nobody else was as impressed by that as I was. 😉

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  26. @ScottC: Agreed. Objections to more rigorous safety regulations on abortion clinics, when matching what other medical service providers have to adhere to, always strike me as odd, given that the objection is that most clinics will close, that there will be no services available for hundreds of miles . . . well, if true for abortion clinics, wouldn’t that be true for other medical service providers? If not, why not?

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  27. Also, since Aaron Sorkin and the Newsroom were mentioned earlier:

    “Nation Hoping ‘The Newsroom’ Ends Before Trayvon Martin Storyline”

    http://www.theonion.com/articles/nation-hoping-the-newsroom-ends-before-trayvon-mar,33135/

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  28. In a lot of ways this is a totally partisan piece and one I wouldn’t normally link because I’d end up spending the entire thread trying to defend something that I don’t entirely agree with rhetoric wise. But, and it’s a big but imo, it raises an interesting point and one I’ve thought about regarding the Zimmerman case, even though I stayed away from the media frenzy and the trial. Why the hell did the guy have a gun in the first place?

    It does seem clear, though, that regardless of the circumstances of the incident and Zimmerman’s motives, both men would likely be alive today but for the presence of the gun. It was Zimmerman’s gun, not his racism, that caused what would have been just a fistfight to turn into a murder.

    And given Zimmerman’s history of violence and thuggery, there is no reason he should ever have had access to a concealed firearm. Amanda Marcotte has an excellent post in which she cites some of Zimmerman’s history that should have prevented him from gun ownership in a sane world:

    In July 2005, he was arrested for“resisting officer with violence.” The neighborhood watch volunteer who wanted to be a cop got into a scuffle with cops who were questioning a friend for alleged underage drinking. The charges were reduced and then waived after he entered an alcohol education program. Then in August 2005, Zimmerman’s former fiance sought a restraining order against him because of domestic violence. Zimmerman sought a restraining order against her in return. Both were granted. Meanwhile, over the course of eight years, Zimmerman made at least 46 calls to the Sanford (Fla.) Police Department reporting suspicious activity involving black males.

    http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/why-was-zimmerman-allowed-to-have.html

    I’m leaving at the butt crack of dawn in the morning so I hope you’ll understand if I don’t respond if there are any comments on this piece………………see y’all next week.

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  29. Is it your position that the charges should never have been reduced and then eliminated? If so, just for him or for that charge for all accused? Or is it the restraining order?

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  30. Scott, as far as I can tell, only one of Austin’s leading Lasik clinics is an ASC. As I wrote earlier there is no reason an ASC cannot run an eye center or an abortion clinic or a birthing center or an emergency room.

    Just as there is no reason a hospital cannot do it.

    I think ASCs are actually originally a federal concept. NoVA?
    Tim?

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  31. Sen Cruz with the tweet of the day.

    @SenTedCruz: Today, re: the so-called nuclear option, Senate Republicans preserved the right to surrender in the future.

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  32. Does anybody here think that their political opponents are evil?

    Absolutely, yes. You and Scott are pictured in the dictionary as the definition of evil. NoVA, with his mustache twirling and top hat doffing is positively evil incarnate. And jnc?!!?!

    With his refusal to use a real avatar and simply going with a blank (on PL) or a WordPress generated one is absolutely the most evil one of all of you!

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  33. Lulu,

    We don’t need recaps of Z’s past to shed light on the trial. That was essentially about the time period beginning when Z stepped out of his vehicle. Although I am guessing you know that and are linking to the column for another reason.

    In the jury instruction there was no mitigation of the self defense instruction with a prosecutor’s instruction on provocation, as would be possible in TX. I wonder if FL even has a provocation instruction. Perhaps it does, but the probability that TM did not turn away and walk the two doors to his destination might have eliminated provocation by Z as an instruction. Did they televise the attorneys’ charge conference with the Court?

    There is a reason the background before the incident is not relevant to the trial on the merits. It would have been relevant to sentencing.

    On the other hand, this sort of story, if true, does play into Justice’s random collection of motive evidence in order to make a CR case here.

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  34. Mark, I haven’t followed the trial and will take the juror’s (and your) word that they were compelled by the law to rule the way they did. I don’t think that Zimmerman is absolved of guilt however. And I also don’t think a system that places a gun in his hands is absolved of guilt either. IMO, the law and guilt are two different things.

    I think cases like this are a teaching moment but not for the same reason others probably do.

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  35. Lms, still not understanding your objection to Zimmerman having a gun.

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  36. China cyberattacks our research universities 24/7.

    http://tinyurl.com/n2dh4vm

    Berkeley’s cybersecurity budget, already in the millions of dollars, has doubled since last year, responding to what Larry Conrad, the associate vice chancellor and chief information officer, said were “millions of attempted break-ins every single week.”

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  37. @ScottC: “This is pretty unbelievable. Or would be if we weren’t already used to the Obama/Holder way of doing “justice”.”

    Holy moly. Whether Zimmerman should have been convicted or not, that’s just . . . amazing. “Here’s a guy we don’t like, we want the public to find anything on him they can in order for us to build a case to punish him for us not liking how that court case turned out . . . ” . . . how is that remotely acceptable?

    Well, it’s a brave new world, I guess.

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  38. ” Why the hell did the guy have a gun in the first place?”

    I think it was inevitable that the conversation shifted this way.
    Quite honestly, I don’t think he needs to justify it at all. Mainly b/c those asking don’t believe in armed self defense.

    That, and if an individual thwarts an attack, their entire worldview is shattered and you con’t get to have victim-industrial-complex cranked up to 11. Hard to hold a candlelight vigil and sell merchandise for someone who survived. but a victim? we can milk that for ratings and marches, and calls for reform and more police and can-we-just-give-peace-a-chance singalongs.

    This is the reason that “armed self defense stories” are on the back page of the local section, if they’re covered at all.” B/C the press and those in power don’t want people doing that. Much easier to clean up the mess, assure the public they’re on it, and move on to the next one. This guy protected himself without the cops. and we can’t have that. so now, he must be destroyed.

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  39. Her argument is over his being issued a concealed carry permit, given his past legal altercations.

    I’d surmise that since it appears that he got off without any actual convictions from his previous run-ins with the law and that since Florida is a “shall issue” state, that’s what allowed him to get one.

    “A Shall-Issue jurisdiction is one that requires a permit to carry a concealed handgun, but where the granting of such permits is subject only to meeting determinate criteria laid out in the law; the granting authority has no discretion in the awarding of the permits, and there is no requirement of the applicant to demonstrate “good cause”. The laws in a Shall-Issue jurisdiction typically state that a granting authority shall issue a permit if the criteria are met, as opposed to laws in which the authority may issue a permit at their discretion.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_States

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  40. http://tinyurl.com/ngwps4g

    Regulatory hell in a very small place.

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  41. @markinaustin: “To do that, Hahne has an official U.S. government license. Not for the magic. For the rabbit.

    The Agriculture Department requires it, citing a decades-old law that was intended to regulate zoos and circuses. Today, the USDA also uses it to regulate much smaller “animal exhibitors,” even the humble one-bunny magician.”

    See, this is what gets you your Tea Party folks. The irony being, even if the government was packed with Tea Party types, this kind of stuff probably wouldn’t go away. It’s self-sustaining. I think, perhaps, government bureaucracy has already reached a form of sentience, and is presently turning on its creators. 😉

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  42. Thanks, NoVA. I was wrong to think this was a federally conceived idea. I do see that Medicare seems to be a driver for growth of ASCs. Is that right?

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  43. BTW, exchange at WaPo on the Rabbit Disaster Plan story: “Lots of sneering, here, at “faceless bureaucrats” … If Congress doesn’t like the outcome, then Congress possesses the power to change the law.

    Reply: “Stop making sense! There are right wingers on this board. You are insulting them.”

    I’m beginning to suspect there is some sort of automatic AI agent running on the WaPo server that spits a variation on that phrase for almost every story posted.

    Given more time, I might be able to model the pattern, but it goes something like this:
    1. Thoughtful partisan post with minimal derogatory comments about other party.
    2. Partisan reply, not touching on the substance of the previous comment, about how ideological opposed partisans are stupid, usually too stupid to appreciate previous comments, or so stupid they will be offended by the above comments, or being intelligent or rational, normally.

    Thus, “right wingers are stupid”, rather than anything on the outright insanity of our government wasting time searching out one man magicians-for-hire and forcing them to right rabbit disaster plans.

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  44. @novahockey: “”Why the hell did the guy have a gun in the first place?”

    I think it was inevitable that the conversation shifted this way.
    Quite honestly, I don’t think he needs to justify it at all. Mainly b/c those asking don’t believe in armed self defense.”

    Well, the question is really: why do people *like him* have guns in the first place. It’s not just him. It’s the idea that anybody with a questionable, potentially violent history, has access to a gun that’s the fundamental issue.

    Although I’m guessing, given the article lmsinca cited, we also should not let people who call numerous times to report suspicious activity to the police have guns.

    In the abstract, I would tend to agree: given Zimmerman’s history and inclinations, it would have been much better for all involved that he not own or have access to a firearm. Or sharpened cutlery. Or a baseball bat.

    It’s a question of to what extent to we want to give a 3rd party power to assess us, based on our Permanent Record, capable or incapable of owning a firearm, bb gun, or bowie knife?

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  45. yes — once you carved out the codes you could bill, you could build your model around billing those codes.

    but how that interplays with the stark law* is a little bit outside of my expertise.

    *prohibition on self-referral with exceptions. you can build a practice just on stark

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