Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1625.1 | -6.1 | -0.37% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2723.4 | -32.3 | -1.17% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.76 | 0.5 | 0.48% |
| LIBOR | 0.274 | 0.001 | 0.18% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.58 | -0.192 | -0.23% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.12% | -0.02% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 101.8 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 100.3 | -0.8 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 201.8 | 0.4 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.16 |
Markets are weaker after a disappointing ADP report. Nonfarm productivity was revised downward to .5% while unit labor costs fell. The Fed will release its Beige Book later on this afternoon. Mortgage applications fell 11.5% last week. Bonds and MBS are up small on the data.
The ADP report is supposed to foreshadow Friday’s all-important jobs report, albeit only the private sector portion. Basically take the jobs report, subtract out public sector workers, and you have ADP. The ADP employment change report came in at 135,000 vs expectations of 165,000. Friday’s payroll report is expected to be 178,000, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.5%. Bonds spiked on the ADP number and have pretty much given it all back. I am struggling to come up with a scenario where bonds rally big on Friday. My guess is that it will take an increase in the unemployment rate (like 7.7%) and a lousy payroll number, like 50k. The bond market increases so grudgingly, it feels like it won’t take much of an upside surprise to send it lower.
I first thought it was a data error, or a misprint. On Friday, the Bankrate US Home Mortgage 30 year Fixed National Average spiked from 3.9% to 4.1%. But it increased again on Monday and Tuesday and now is sitting at 4.16%. Over that period, the 10 year is unchanged, but the FNCL 3.5 TBA is down a point, which corresponds to a 22 bp increase in yield. The GNSF 3.5 is down 14 ticks, which corresponds to a 10 basis point increase in yield. So how do we get a 26 basis point increase in mortgage rates when Fannies are up 22bps and Ginnies are up 10? And no, its not jumbos, which only increased 4 basis points. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
I was truly hoping you would explain the mortgage rate hike. Could it just mean that demand for housing at the bargain rates is so great that lenders will make more by raising rates some and losing a few buyers/borrowers? In other words, could it be equilibrium seeking?
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Could it be a sense that the QE tit is drying up which means the stock market will deflate or at least stagnate and mortgages will offer at least some benefit?
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So, if I understand Juiceboxer and the rest, when Progressive agendas stal it’s because the electorate has made itself ungovernable.
As I think Nigel Tufnel or David St.Hubbins said, “To much fucking perspective.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/how-u-s-politics-was-hijacked-by-partisans.html
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trying to figure out what is going on re mortgages…do not know.
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Is this old? Has Tyler Cowen already been debunked about Rate Shock?
That all said, I find the screeds of most but not all of Roy’s critics to be inappropriate or in some cases beyond inappropriate. It is disturbing how much space and emotional energy is devoted to attacking Roy, and to attacking conservative policy wonkery, relative to trying to calculate the actual extent of rate shock or possible lack thereof. That is not how good policy wonks go about their job.
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/06/is-there-aca-rate-shock-in-california.html
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WaPo finally going paywall, of the most porous NYT variety.
My one rationalization for WaPo’s horrendously poor interface and site management was that people get what they pay for. Now that will no longer be the case.
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This is absolutely fascinating,
“The courts are bending the rules to legalize the policies of the European institutions and help stabilize the region,” said Erber, a specialist in financial-market regulation. “It reveals implicitly that the EU was well-informed about what was going on and didn’t take steps to avert the crisis.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-29/ecb-wins-ruling-to-deny-access-to-secret-greek-swap-files.html
What’s your take away from this? Does this make you more or less likely to invest in EU products?
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Odds of this actually happening?
“To finance the subsidies, the law pulls money from other sources—like higher taxes on the wealthy and reductions in what Medicare pays for goods and services.”
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113392/obamacare-rate-shock-debate-subsidies-make-huge-difference
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Does this really surprise anybody?
http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/303651-hatch-probes-rising-cost-of-health-laws-subsidies
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Transplant take by Ace.
http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2013/06/05/Sarah-Murnaghan-Will-Almost-Certainly-Get-Her-Lung-Transplant-And-That-s-A-Problem
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McWing:
Great link to Ace. I agree with every word. Especially this, which is something I have thought for some time:
But in the left’s conception of the State, we really are “one big family,” and not just in rhetorical terms: This concept of the relationship between citizen and government includes, necessarily, treating perfect strangers as if they were family members, with bureaucrats deciding among many special pleaders who “most deserves” special treatment, as a father might have to choose between his sons.
I would suggest further that confusing the two forms of transaction, impersonal and personal, not only has deleterious effects on relationships that are (or should be) impersonal, but on those which are actually personal as well, as people no longer distinguish between dealings within the family and dealings without it.
This is the world of liberaldom to which we are doomed.
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More GOP overreach?
http://m.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/verizon-providing-all-call-records-to-us-under-court-order/2013/06/05/98656606-ce47-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_story.html
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Yes, The Obama administration is secretly carrying out a domestic surveillance program under which it is collecting business communications records involving Americans under a hotly debated section of the Patriot Act, according to a highly classified court order disclosed on Wednesday night.
On D-Day we should try to remember if this is the reason we defeated Hitler – to gut the 4th Amendment and create a government whose curiosity about its own citizens is random and unstoppable.
Again, I am glad I voted L. This level of intrusion was brought to you in tandem by Rs and Ds.
I am utterly disgusted.
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If you haven’t seen it, “the lives of others” (Das Leben der Anderen) is fanstatic. It’s about a Stasi officer who starts spying on an artist. of note, the whole reason he’s targeted is that a high ranking officer likes the guys’ wife/girlfriend. so surveillance + abuse of power.
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nova:
I watched that some time ago. It was very interesting.
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that Ace article is great.
“Our nation is no longer one of rights or ownership. It is now one in
which we merely plead to the courtiers of government for favors, or to
keep something we have in our possession.” Soon, you will all be lobbyists.
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Soon, you will all be lobbyists.
We are all NoVA now.
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Scott:
This is the world of liberaldom to which we are doomed.
I think you’re painting “liberaldom’s” take on that transplant a bit broadly. For instance, this is what I had to say about it, and I think I’m the farthest left liberal posting here.
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