Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1575.8 | -5.9 | -0.37% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2684.1 | -20.3 | -0.75% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.23 | -0.4 | -0.44% |
| LIBOR | 0.276 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.61 | -0.132 | -0.16% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.68% | -0.03% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 106 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 104.5 | 0.2 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 191 | 0.5 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.47 |
Markets are slightly weaker after Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected. D.R. Horton reported better than expected earnings. Bonds and MBS are stronger
Q1 GDP came in at + 2.5%. lower than the 3% estimate. This is the advance estimate – Q1 GDP will be revised twice in the next two months. Consumer spending increased at 3.2% and the savings rate declined. The back-to-back drop in defense spending was the biggest since 1954. Real disposable incomes fell 5.3% in Q1 on increased taxes. C = 3.2%, I = 3%, G = -4.1%.
The Senate voted to end sequestration-related furloughs for air traffic controllers and the measure will be sent to the House today. President Obama has said he will consider whatever is sent to him.
CoreLogic has acquired Case-Schiller.
The CFPB has proposed amendments to the QM rule. The proposals are here.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Brent, were revised safe harbor provisions for conforming loans ever finalized and released? Is mortgage pushback risk still a significant inhibiting factor for more loan origination?
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I agree with a lot of this article from Roger Kimball:
If the events in Boston elicit horror, if the left-wing response occasions disgust, there are other things that, I think, spark justifiable fear. The increasing militarization of the police in this country has provided grounds for concern for many years. Almost four years ago, Glenn Reynolds wrote an excellent piece on the subject for Popular Mechanics called “SWAT Overkill: The Danger of a Paramilitary Police Force.” More and more police forces, it seems, are like that wacko character on Hill Street Blues who liked nothing better than dressing up in combat gear and assaulting a local malefactor with bazookas.
The so-called “voluntary lock-down” in Watertown — a more appropriate phrase might be “martial law” — offered a chilling spectacle for anyone who cherishes his personal freedom. Remember the Fourth Amendment? That guaranteed that “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated.” Yet in Watertown, platoons of heavily armed police in combat gear went from house to house, guns drawn, banging down doors, screaming at people to come out of their own houses with their hands on their head. There were “a lot of big guns pointed at us,” said one Watertown resident. Several news outlets used the word “surreal” to describe this concentrated display of the coercive power of the state. What worries me is not that it is “surreal” but that it is, increasingly, all too real. And to what end? As Matthew Feeeney of Reason pointed out, Dzhokar Tsarnaev was caught after the lockdown was lifted and a homeowner stepped outside for a cigarette and noticed blood on his boat. The shock and awe show of intimidating police force might have made for dramatic TV, but it didn’t get the bad guy. An alert private citizen was the instrument of that coup.
It occurred to me, after seeing some pictures from Boston, that what I took for a significant military presence in Boston while I was there last weekend may well have actually been largely just a police presence dressed up to look like a military presence. That’s not good.
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If a loan fits into the conforming or government bucket, it is considered to be a qualified mortgage. This means that a borrower cannot come back and sue the lender . It does not have anything to do with buy back risk, which still exists.
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Yes, but weren’t you noting a few months ago that the agencies were still debating over what constituted a qualified mortgage and therefore that uncertainty was inhibiting lending?
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the QM rule only affects litigation. Separately, the agencies are still trying to figure out the reps and warrants issue with a sunset – in other words, if the borrower makes payments consistently for X number of months, and if they default later it wasn’t the lender’s fault. They have been thinking something in the 2 – 3 year timeframe.
But yes, that is inhibiting lending, as is the QRM issue which has yet to be addressed and covers securitization.
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Radley Balko has done great work on the police militarization issue.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-agitator
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Pigford continues:
“U.S. Opens Spigot After Farmers Claim Discrimination
By SHARON LaFRANIERE
Published: April 25, 2013 ”
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“It occurred to me, after seeing some pictures from Boston, that what I took for a significant military presence in Boston while I was there last weekend may well have actually been largely just a police presence dressed up to look like a military presence. That’s not good.”
It’s better than actual military.
Had they gotten away and bombed New York as well the following week, this would look totally different.
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jnc:
It’s better than actual military.
In some respects that is true. Still disturbing, though, if the distinction is becoming blurred.
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Kimball’s column also reminded me of something Bloomberg said that I find very disheartening, namely his suggestion that “our interpretation of the Constitution, I think, [has] to change.” It is a depressing indication of modern day constitutional philosophy which seemingly holds that, far from articulating fixed principles which the government is bound to adhere to absent them being altered in the prescribed manner, the constitution is instead infinitely malleable and can be made to allow for whatever the government might feel is necessitated by current circumstances simply through “reinterpreting” it to be saying things it that it had never occurred to us before that it might say.
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And that’s a wrap folks on the FAA furloughs:
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“The Democrats have lost on sequestration
Posted by Ezra Klein on April 26, 2013 at 2:12 pm”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/26/the-democrats-have-lost-on-sequestration/
Yep, that about sums it up.
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You mean Republicans called a bluff and Obama blinked? Tell me it ain’t so! The sequestered budgets are now the new baseline.
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Yes, however the good news for progressives and Democrats is that getting the sequester as the new baseline is about as far as the Republican strategy went. They have no plan for the FY2014 budget process.
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Mark – New Steve Pearlstein piece.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/25/how-the-l-a-times-can-stop-the-kochs/
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Thanx, JNC. Kinda lightweight for SP, but amusing in the conceit that a bunch of journalists could act in concert.
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It occurred to me, after seeing some pictures from Boston, that what I took for a significant military presence in Boston while I was there last weekend may well have actually been largely just a police presence dressed up to look like a military presence. That’s not good.”
It’s better than actual military.
I was in Boston last week. It looked nothing like actual military.
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‘Goose, I take your expert opinion as evidence.
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Mark:
How about this for evidence? If you look closely you can see that the back of the humvee says “Military Police”. I saw these vehicles all over Boston last Saturday. Several were stationed on the Boston Common. One was stationed just outside the entrance to the Government Center T stop. One was positioned on the street next to the Old South Church. This one was outside the Park Street T stop. This one was stationed outside a cafe in downtown. Note the two people standing to the right of the picture in front of the vehicle. I don’t know if those are National Guardsmen, policemen, or what. But to say that they look “nothing like actual military” seems to me at least a slight exaggeration. And I know I am just an ignorant civilian with no military experience, but I’ll be damned if this picture from Waterbury doesn’t bear at least some resemblance to a scene from Iraq or Afghanistan.
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Mich:
I was in Boston last week. It looked nothing like actual military.
Which is a bit odd, given that there actually was a significant military presence there. (emphasis added)
It was not an ordinary April 20 in Boston, either. While the informal, unorganized annual gathering on Mt. Mary Jane has taken place for several years at 4:20 on 4/20, this year was noticeably different, as a makeshift military staging area, complete with Humvees and heavily armed soldiers, was still visible less than 100 yards away on the Carty Parade Grounds of the Boston Common, remnants of tragic events that shook the city of Boston.
Just blocks away, Copley Square remained blocked off, an active crime scene following the tragic bombings at the Boston Marathon on Monday. For the past week, as Bostonians have attempted to carry on with their lives, it has not been business as usual. Walking through the city, uniformed police, heavily armed S.W.A.T. teams, and active military personnel have been stationed on virtually every street corner.
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Oh, bullshit, Scott.
“All over” Boston? I was staying at the Intercontinental in the financial district and walking back and forth between there and the convention center every day. I used the T to get all over the place–I saw a grand total of one HMMV all week. That was on Saturday and when I stopped to talk to the nice soldier to ask him what was up it turned out that he was there (outside a bank) because it was drill weekend and his buddies were inside the McDonald’s next door picking up lunch.
Boston was not an armed encampment. I went to Copley Square to have dinner with a friend who was staying at the Westin. You’re full of it.
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Mich:
Boston was not an armed encampment.
Agreed.
But there was what appeared to be a significant military presence throughout the city, nonetheless. I’ve already provided pictures of military humvees in three different locations. And I personally saw more in at least three other locations (Government Center, South Church, Boston Common). There was very clearly some kind of staging area on the west side of the Boston Common, with several military vehicles and armed soldiers (National Guardsmen, perhaps), as was echoed by the article I linked to previously. In any event, I suppose people will decide for themselves what is and is not “bullshit”.
Anyway, it sounds like we were both in Boston on the same day. Too bad I didn’t know. I would have bought you a drink and introduced you to the family.
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The Copley stop on the T was closed and taxis had to take a circuitous route to get there, but that was the only change that was noticeable.
Since I like cops I talked to several in my walking around. Boston was a little bit more on edge than usual, but not a whole lot. And it most definitely was not militarized.
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Mich:
My comment from last Sunday after returning from Boston, which I’m guessing you missed:
BTW, I went up to Boston yesterday. City was fully active, all pretty normal except for the large military presence. In several places around the city you could find military vehicles, what I could only describe as mini-humvees, along with military personnel. There was what looked like a big staging area on the west side of the Boaton Common. But apart from that, all was pretty normal. The T was filled with the usual crazies, which was rather entertaining.
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I would have liked that.
I think the author you linked to was going overly dramatic and purple prose. From what I could tell, actually talking to people rather than just “impartially” observing, it was a coincidence of drill weekend and a heinous act of violence.
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And, yes, I missed your comment last weekend. I’ve been “dealing” with “things” lately.
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Michi and Scott,
I think we have a good Rashomon moment here. Different people can see the very same thing from different perspectives.
I dislike the militarization of the police force solely because of Checkov’s Law. Give people these toys and they will insist on playing with them.
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Michi,
Glad to have you back. I hope you are handling all the attendant hassles well.
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yello:
Thanks. Daisy and I have been racking up the miles on the CR-V when I couldn’t sleep, but otherwise we seem to be coping. I’m hoping that I’ll be getting interviews out your way in the next couple of weeks.
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A really interesting look at Gandhi. I got the link from Ace’s Sunday book thread. It’s a long read but fascinating.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/the-gandhi-nobody-knows/
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Great link, George. I knew much of this, in general, when I saw the movie. I was made unsure of what I thought I knew of MG from the movie!
One quibble: I thought MG was raised as a Jain by his mother, and that he did not hold Hindu belief, but used it, cynically, as a tool.
This could be a recollection from one of the many Brit critiques I had read of MG, and may be w-w-wrong.
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