Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
|
Last |
Change |
Percent |
|
|
S&P Futures |
1581.3 |
7.2 |
0.46% |
|
Eurostoxx Index |
2708.5 |
6.4 |
0.24% |
|
Oil (WTI) |
91.74 |
0.3 |
0.34% |
|
LIBOR |
0.276 |
0.000 |
0.00% |
|
US Dollar Index (DXY) |
82.47 |
-0.583 |
-0.70% |
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield |
1.72% |
0.01% |
|
|
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA |
106 |
-0.1 |
|
|
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA |
104.2 |
-0.1 |
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index |
191 |
0.5 |
|
|
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage |
3.47 |
Markets are higher after earnings continue to look decent. Initial Jobless Claims fell, although the data tends to be volatile this time of year. Bonds and MBS are down
Yesterday, the House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on the private label securitization market. Generally speaking the theme centered around regulatory certainty, and that until QRM issues get resolved, the private label market will still be a trickle. Everyone agreed that Fannie and Fred will remain doing what they do for quite some time. Interestingly, Ranking Member Maxine Waters expressed concern about the effects principal mods will have on investors – I wonder if CALPERs and PIMCO had a word with her. If Maxine Waters isn’t onboard with principal mods, maybe the whole push is losing momentum. Fun fact that came out of the hearing: The U.S. government currently bears 50% of the credit risk of the entire mortgage market.
We have had quite a few homebuilders report over the past week, and it is generally a tale of two geographies. The builders that are in the West Coast markets have done great (KBH, MTH, RYL), while the ones with more East Coast exposure (NVR, PHM) are doing better, but nowhere near the others. NVR actually missed estimates and the stock was clobbered for 6% at one point, but it has clawed back its losses with the general strength in the market. Pulte reported this morning and is looking down a quarter. Ryland, which focuses on the first time homebuyer and the second-time move up buyer reported great numbers. Perhaps the long-awaited return of the first-time homebuyer is finally here.
The connection between the first time homebuyer and household formation is something that I have been harping on for a while. CoreLogic talks about it in its latest Market Pulse. Household formation numbers have been depressed ever since 2006, and that has given the illusion that the homebuilders have been building enough starter homes. The problem is that the drop in household formation wasn’t due to demographics – it was due to a lousy economy. If a normal run rate is 1 million new households per year, and we average around 600 for five years, that means we have roughly 2 million new households in pent-up demand, along with the normal demand. Of course as the economy improves, many of these households will become renters first, and not first-time homebuyers. But what sort of housing start number will we see in the future to accommodate this demand? Remember, 1.5 million starts is “normalcy.” Certainly not the 1 million print we saw last week. Probably closer to 2 million. Think about the homebuilding stocks on double the activity…
Chart Household Formation:
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
The next oppressed minority, employees with tattoos.
Said only partially tongue in cheek. We had a receptionist who had a mandela which covered her entire back. And I mean the entire back. It seems a previous boyfriend had been a tattoo artist and had done it for free. It wasn’t so bad in the winter but in the summer it was nearly impossible for her to wear clothes that covered it entirely.
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I remember when only sailors and heroin users wore tats.
For those of you who were not intimate with the criminal justice system from 1964-1970, heroin users made tracks on their arms from 5-10 injections per day. To disguise the tracks, they wore intricate patterned tats on both arms from above the wrist to the shoulder.
That association is so strong for me that I find tats repugnant.
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Just thought I’d drop by and let y’all know I won’t be around much for the next month or so, maybe longer.
The group of women, five of us established four years ago to deal with hunger issues at a senior complex by starting a food bank, has grown into a more political entity and now numbers over 50 men and women. I’m the elected leader this year and we’re taking on the back ground check legislation until it passes. I’ll be working with Gifford’s PAC, the PCCC and a smaller group in AZ which will be applying pressure on Jeff Flake.
All of my reading and research and some travel plans will focus on this so I won’t have time to participate here too much. I don’t think many of you are that interested in the legislation, one way or another, so I’m not going to bore all of you with the details of what we’re doing or updates and other nonsense. It’s just something I need to do, the same way I did for health care reform. I have to participate or I can’t sleep… 🙂
Between this and work I’ll be a busy little bee though. Keep up the good work and I’ll try to check in when I can but didn’t want y’all to think I’d disappeared again……………or was pissed off about something…………….hahaha.
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LMS, great and good work!
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PS to Nova, thanks for the info, very helpful and I’ve already passed it on. I’ll be in AZ the week after next and will try to set up a meeting if possible as a tag along with AZ folks.
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Good on you for getting out in the world and actually trying to change something rather than just grouse about it on the internet.
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Amusing. Everyone was concerned about business transferring employee health care costs to the Federal government via the exchange subsidies, that they forgot to worry about progressive state governments.
“Washington State May Push Workers Into Health Exchanges, Costing U.S. Government Millions”
By MIKE BAKER 04/24/13 03:34 PM ET EDT AP
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/24/washington-workers-health-exchange_n_3145568.html
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happy to help, LMS …. provided you stick to background checks. I trust you. I don’t trust the gun control movement generally.
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That’s it for us Nova. Most of us grew up in the Mountain West so you won’t see us trying to sneak in more stuff. We’re mostly moderates but think that what happened in the Senate last week bordered on the insane. It’s a moderate proposal and we’d like to see it pass. After that we’ll go back to single payer in CA……………… 😉
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have fun with it. lobbying can be a lot of fun.
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Heh.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/25/is-congress-trying-to-exempt-itself-from-obamacare.html
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McWing:
What, you ignoring my comments now, too?
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The Wonkblog rebuttal.
I’m not sure both sides aren’t being too cute by half. Universal open enrollment would solve the whole issue in a heart beat. But insurance companies will never want to market to individuals since their entire sales force is geared to selling to employers.
A paradigm needs to be changed.
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yello:
Useful link.
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Useful link.
Thanks. I’m still not sure I understand the kerfuffle and I don’t want to make my head hurt enough to.
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That was so last thread Scott.
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jnc:
I’m usually behind the curve.
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Here’s a scenario for you. You’re at your window. and the Boston Bombers are in a shoot-out with police. about 50 yards away. assuming you’re capable, do you take the shot? pictures and more at Ace. http://minx.cc/?post=339403
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nova:
Very interesting question.
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For all you Star Wars aficionados out there:
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“do you take the shot? ”
I’d call 911 and ask them if they wanted me to.
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As I don’t own a gun, the question is moot. My only option is to cower in the corner and try not to soil myself.
As for the hypothetical case where I did have a gun and was properly trained in its use, I would not want to do anything that would draw fire on me from the others engaged in the firefight. The police had no idea how many confederates these two had and would likely look upon me as one of them. This is the fundamental fallacy of those that think situations like the Virginia Tech or Gabrielle Giffords situation would have been different if there had been more armed people around. Cops don’t have the time or wherewithal to sort the good-guy shooters from the bad-guy shooters. I am more than willing to recognize the monopoly on violence the government has except for the cases of direct personal self-defense.
My better question is: What is that guy doing with a camera at an open window with clearly armed assailants down below. Is he nuts?
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yello:
My better question is: What is that guy doing with a camera at an open window with clearly armed assailants down below. Is he nuts?
Citizen journalists worthy of the name must be prepared to make sacrifices.
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“My better question is: What is that guy doing with a camera at an open window with clearly armed assailants down below. Is he nuts?”
No. He’s a free American.
And looking to get on TV with some good footage.
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jnc:
No. He’s a free American.
OK…you got me. I just watched the best of Ron Swanson on youtube and it looks like I am going to have to become a Parks and Recreation watcher. “I once spent 3 years working next to someone and never knew his name. Best friend I ever had. We still don’t talk sometimes.”
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Scott — The first season or 2 of parks and rec were okay. but after that it hit its stride and is really good.
and the line you pulled is one of my favorites. followed by “you had me at meat tornado”
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“hose that think situations like the Virginia Tech or Gabrielle Giffords situation would have been different ”
my thinking from those situation is that it’s already as FUBAR as possible. one more gun isn’t making it worse and has the potential to make it better, if nothing else for that particular armed American.
re: swanson, I read an interview with Nick Offerman (sp?) that the character is based on a city employee that the writers interviewed. and that Swanson is a toned down version of her. yes HER.
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“McWing:
What, you ignoring my comments now, too?”
Not ignoring, just re-contextualizing.
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I nominate Ron Swanson as the Official Hero of ATiM.
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http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/04/25/how-george-w-bush-can-help-reform-the-republican-party/
You know, since he’s no longer satan and shit.
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Sometimes public schools are their own worst enemy.
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self-described “leftist” on how the Democratic Party misplayed the gun debate.
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Nova:
Really good article. As someone who doesn’t own a gun and hence followed the recent debate only peripherally, it was particularly interesting to find out the reality behind background checks.
I will say this, however. His primary advice is somewhat problematic in that I would guess that most of the politicians driving gun control (like Obama) really do want to end the right to possess firearms. So it really isn’t a problem of strategy, but rather of honest ideology.
I’d also add that if politicians ceased advocating for and trying to pass legislation on topics about which they are utterly ignorant, most of them really wouldn’t have a whole lot to do other than pass campaign finance laws.
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Good piece Nova. I’m confident the advice will go unheeded.
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“Corrupt educators are threatening school reform
By Robert C. Bobb, Published: April 25”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/corrupt-educators-are-threatening-school-reform/2013/04/25/63370a64-ab5d-11e2-a8b9-2a63d75b5459_story.html
Robert C. Bobb used to be city manager in Richmond, VA prior to the change to an elected mayor. He was a very good one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bobb
see also:
http://www.styleweekly.com/richmond/what-about-bobb/Content?oid=1699078
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FAA Furloughs end. Sequestration continues.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/congress-ponders-way-to-end-airport-delays/2013/04/25/32fc50ce-adca-11e2-8bf6-e70cb6ae066e_story.html
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