Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
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Last |
Change |
Percent |
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S&P Futures |
1542.1 |
-3.6 |
-0.2% |
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Eurostoxx Index |
2546.3 |
-15.0 |
-0.61% |
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Oil (WTI) |
86.65 |
-.02 |
-0.0% |
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LIBOR |
0.278 |
0.001 |
0.18% |
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US Dollar Index (DXY) |
82.45 |
-0.302 |
-0.25% |
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield |
1.69% |
-0.007% |
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Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA |
106.1 |
0.2 |
|
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Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA |
104.06 |
-0.3 |
|
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RPX Composite Real Estate Index |
190.426 |
-0.4 |
|
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BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage |
3.51 |
Markets are weaker this morning after some disappointing economic data. Initial Jobless Claims camea at 352k, slightly higher than expectations and the prior week was revised upward. Philly Fed and Leading Economic Indicators were also disappointing. Bond and MBS are up.
Freddie Mac released their April Economic and Housing Outlook yesterday which does a decent job of going over the latest and greatest economic statistics. They are predicting that GDP will come in at +3% for Q1, dip to +1.3% for Q2 and then rebound into the mid 2s for the final half of the year. For 2013, they are predicting growth above 3%. They believe that construction employment will drive the recovery. Of the 5.5 million jobs lost since bust, 2.2 million (or 40%) were in construction. Since then we have added only 330k construction jobs. If you count the half a million jobs lost in financial services, real-estate related jobs accounted for 50% of the jobs lost in the Great Recession.
The Fed’s Beige Book survey contains the words “moderate” and “modest” a lot. The Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City districts were growing at a “moderate” pace, while Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco noted “modest” growth. Increases in auto and residential construction were offset by cuts in defense-related weakness. The labor markets were generally unchanged, although the Fed noted wage pressures in IT, construction, and engineering.
Minneapolis Fed Head Kocherlakota says that low interest rates will probably generate signs of financial instability, but it is a necessary evil. He noted that QE has helped the housing market and said it would be nice if they could do even more along those lines.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Guess it ain’t a Teabagger.
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I’m glad McWing. Scott and I had already agreed there was probably a foreign, hate America, element in there but I didn’t want to speculate too much. I’ve actually seen a majority of news sources being very careful all along with their reporting. Of course there’s always a few flame throwers on each side willing to go off the deep end making assumptions and statements to inflame others.
I don’t know if any of you here have read the story of the guy in the cowboy had who helped the guy who ended up losing both of his legs but it was a very sad story. He lost his son in Iraq (I think) and has been a peace activist ever since spreading the word of the real cost of our wars and then his other son committed suicide. Anyway, the guy in the wheelchair he’s helping get to an ambulance, and I’ve heard that’s an artery pinched between his fingers, gave the guys such an excellent description of the older, and now dead, brother, that the investigators were able to identify him through photographs. Amazing he even remembered him as the bomb went off very soon afterwards.
The photo is a little difficult to look at but I think it’s important to keep our focus on the real heroes from Monday and tune out the folks trying to make political hay out of the moment.
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2013/04/19/how-did-we-id-the-boston-marathon-bombers-so-quickly/
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That would be gave the cops not guys, and only after waking up from surgery.
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I think it’s less of a “foreign, hate America, element” and more nihilism. The more I read, the more I agree with Charles Pierce that it’s closer to Columbine than Faisal Shahzad
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/Moving_On_Through_The_Day
If the initial reports turn out to be true on Jeff Bauman & Carlos Luis Arredondo , I believe that it would be worthwhile for President Obama to invite the two of them to the White House to be recognized.
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I’ll check out the Pierce piece jnc, thanks, but I can see a similarity to Columbine as well I think. We got busy here so I’ll have to save it for later. Agree on recognition for Bauman and Arredondo. Their stories are both amazing but I’m sure there are others also. That Bauman woke up and asked for paper and pencil because he knew he had information is really moving to me.
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Wow.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311809/EXCLUSIVE-The-middle-class-student-married-Boston-bomber-daughter-secretly-converting-Islam-college.html
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Looks like about the same time they figured he got away and they lifted the order for everyone to stay inside, some lady found blood in her backyard leading to her boat, and now he’s surrounded. And it’s fairly close to where they had them cornered last night. What a bizarre situation. Reminds me of the cop killer here hiding out across from the command post up in Big Bear. They’ll get him now, dead or alive. Probably dead I guess, although in this case I think they’d like to take him alive. I could be wrong though.
Then the spinning will begin. Republicans are already using it as a wedge against immigration and next up will be mo’ money for DHS or something. I actually heard someone blame cuts to the Boston PD, as if there aren’t enough cops there now.
Most of the time I hope the perp takes themselves out, if they’re guilty, rather than prolong all the coverage for months and listen to all the bloviators. I remember wishing OJ would just use the gun on himself during the “low speed chase” of the white bronco. I suppose that makes me a bad person but there it is.
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Thoughts and prayers for all the victims; those who died or were maimed, and their loved ones.
Thank yous to all those who stood steadfast in their search efforts and for their courage and bringing about a GREAT end to a HORRIBLE week.
Thank yous to the public who helped by looking at and providing photos and videos.
And Thank yous to the citizens of Boston for their patience and assistance and having put their lives on hold for the pursuit of Freedom.
May God Bless You All
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Immigration reform just got 1000x harder…
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Brent:
That is probably correct. But to be honest I don’t think this single event should drive immigration policy any more than should the Newtown event drive gun control policy.
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Your tax dollars at work.
As I am sure you all can imagine, I am opposed as a matter of principle to the use of tax dollars to fund NPR, and it wouldn’t matter even if NPR was the finest, most objective and informative news organization in the world. But the fact that it fills the airwaves with this kind of idiotic left-wing drivel makes it all the more of an outrage.
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Of course, it appears that it was a domestic extremist attack. An American citizen and a legal resident, fueled by Islamic extremism.
Until and unless this ties to a foreign cell this appears to be an act of domestic extremism.
I love NPR, and it is the kind of public-private partnership, only 10% funded by public money, that I think is not wasteful of the taxpayers’ generousity.
Imagine if we could fund any federally supported program 90% from the private sector through voluntary contributions from listeners like you.
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Mark:
I love NPR
What is it exactly about reporters pretending that Hitler’s birthday is meaningful to the political right in the US that you find lovable? I find it disgusting.
Imagine if we could fund any federally supported program 90% from the private sector…
There are plenty of news and entertainment organizations that are 100% funded by the private sector. So the real question is why NPR should be federally funded at all.
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Well, everyone knows that Hitler was for smaller government!
Taranto wrote this earlier:
“What the Hope-They’re-White crowd really wishes for is a reason to treat their domestic political adversaries as enemies of the state.”
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Is a Columbia University professorship in line for the Marathon bomber?
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McWing:
Taranto wrote this earlier:
I think there is something to that.
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I like Charles Pierce again this morning.
Too much to hope for I suppose.
Read more: The Day After — Midnight On Franklin Street – Esquire http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/Midnight_On_Franklin_Street#ixzz2R6MmEejw
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That 19 year old with a funny name intentionally set a bomb next to an 8 year old boy.
He still has all his rights and, I’m guessing from his watching crime drama’s, could recite the Miranda warning by heart.
I’m fascinated by the desire to paint him as a Columbine nihilist. There is as much ( meaning zero) evidence for that that as there is for him being a ringleader for Al Queda, yet somehow it’s ok to speculate on one but not the other. Why?
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McWing:
You beat me to it. It is amazing to me the number of people who lament unfounded speculation about an Islamic motivation by engaging in their own unfounded speculation.
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McWing, you make it sound as though comparing him to the likes of Dylan Klebold is some kind of sympathetic gesture. I think Pierce is just trying to slow down the massive rumor mill of unsubstantiated speculation based on the fact that they were born in another country and were Muslim (supposedly). Right now all we really know is that they were disaffected young Americans who pursued an extreme agenda. Calling it nihilism or domestic extremism isn’t as important as waiting until we know more and hopefully ensuring that the rule of law is followed.
There are lots of heinous crimes committed in this country every day and while this one is really disturbing from a public safety standpoint and the possibility of a foreign influence, the shooting at Sandy Hook and the Aurora theater aren’t really any easier to prevent or explain. Why should we treat this any differently until we know different?
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Scott, the government needs an outlet to define news.
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I read a quote referencing NPR that said that the Feds sponsor’s NPR so that rich people don’t have to spend $60 a year on satellite radio.
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McWing:
I read a quote referencing NPR that said that the Feds sponsor’s NPR so that rich people don’t have to spend $60 a year on satellite radio.
Quite right. Whatever thin rationale for federal support for the likes of NPR that might have once existed has long since disappeared.
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I thought this was a pretty good look at the investigation last week from behind the scenes. Sometimes what seems like dumb luck is really the result of hours and hours of painstaking police work (plus a little dumb luck).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/inside-the-investigation-of-the-boston-marathon-bombing/2013/04/20/19d8c322-a8ff-11e2-b029-8fb7e977ef71_story.html
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lms:
plus a little dumb luck
Kind of ironic that they found the second guy only because they lifted the lockdown, allowing the resident to wander into his backyard and discover something amiss with his boat.
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Scott, that’s the part I was referring to. In addition to that, I’d heard that the younger kid was supposedly pretty smart, but it doesn’t sound like it to me. It didn’t take the authorities very long to get their pictures up for the world to see and they were still in town so………………………………not that bright IMO. I feel as though I could come up with a better plan than they had. Generally I think if you don’t plan on making a last stand or blowing your own self up you plan an escape route.
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BTW, I went up to Boston yesterday. City was fully active, all pretty normal except for the large military presence. In several places around the city you could find military vehicles, what I could only describe as mini-humvees, along with military personnel. There was what looked like a big staging area on the west side of the Boaton Common. But apart from that, all was pretty normal. The T was filled with the usual crazies, which was rather entertaining.
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I’d characterize it as a victory for the surveillance state.
I subscribed to the Columbine analogy due to the age of the suspects and the other associated events that seemed more anarchist crime spree in nature, i.e. the 7-Eleven robbery. I don’t think it was an organized Al-Queda attack, but chances are just as high it could be a Faisal Shazad self radicalizing attack.
“Taranto wrote this earlier:
“What the Hope-They’re-White crowd really wishes for is a reason to treat their domestic political adversaries as enemies of the state.””
Example A is all the commentary at Plum Line.
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The Plum Line is unreadable.
The Boston bombings and spree will turn out to have a root in Islamic extremism, most likely. If the older bro shared his plans with anyone but his kid bro, FBI will soon know. That is my guess.
Did NPR run a misleading story about some group celebrating Hitler’s birthday? I think Aryan Republic does. Are they a “conservative” group? Not in my book. They are a criminal enterprise, certainly.
I did not hear that story or the speculation about the Boston bombings and spree.
ex-farmboy that I am, I wrote a reply to shrink at PL as follows.
Shrink, dry ammonium nitrate is not rare but it is not favored over liquid fertilizer because of its volatility, mainly.
But it is convenient on many soils.
What the “Statesman” journalist missed is that the West facility passed muster based entirely on self-reporting.
Self-reporting is a good thing, if there are enough technically qualified inspectors that the threat of meaningful spot inspection acts as a prophylactic to false and fraudulent self-reporting, or as a corrective to ignorant self reporting.
There are not enough qualified persons to spot inspect every potentially dangerous industrial site once a year by a factor of 100. So let’s generously say that to obtain the prophylactic effect on “bad” self-reporting. We need to train and hire at various levels of government 10 times as many biochem tecchies as we do now.
When you look at it in this light, it is apparent that most self-reporting must be pretty decent. That is the good news. The bad news is that we have no way to deal with bad self-reporting until after the BOOM.
This series of comments of mine were essentially factual, I think. Most businesses self-report pretty accurately in my experience.
The responses were either indignant or dismissive. Bernie thinks self-reporting is a joke. I suppose he would favor universal IRS audits, too.
Shrink made fun of the notion that self-reporting was generally a good thing, as well. Chris thinks ammonium nitrate should be banned, because it can explode.
My nanny suggestion of hiring ten times as many inspectors at various levels of gummint was also seen as right wing nonsense, because it would keep us from having to hire 100 times as many inspectors, which I guess is preferable for some.
Now for TX to hire ten times as many inspectors would be no problem because we really have very few. I would not be as sanguine about ten times as many feds. I generally see public safety as a state matter under the Constitution, absent interstate implications. So this West blast in particular I see as a TX matter.
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Mark:
Did NPR run a misleading story about some group celebrating Hitler’s birthday?
No.
You should listen to the clip in my original comment on this. The reporter claims that the reason authorities are thinking that the Boston bombing is a domestic, extremist attack is because:
“April is a big month for anti-government and right-wing individuals. There’s the Columbine anniversary. There’s Hitler’s birthday. There’s the Oklahoma City bombing. The assault on the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas.”
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Example A is all the commentary at Plum Line
In fairness there were a lot of people trying to get others to stop or not even begin blaming one theory or another of who the perpetrators were. People like Sue, fewsuch, even Bernie were trying to get people to stay away from the political pleasure of one theory or another. It lasted a couple of days anyway. And Greg tried to stick to the facts of the story also. Now it’s turned into another free for all though. I can’t read it when it’s like that, and that really goes for both sides. I haven’t ignored anyone so I have the pleasure of reading it all when I show up.
There’s too much commenting there and a lot of it is bullshit but there’s not enough here, bullshit or not………………………..hahaha
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I generally agree with you Mark on the self-reporting aspect to industrial and environmental regulations. Obviously the problem as you state it is that in many states the inspector apparatus is both underfunded and possibly even corrupt. One of the reports I read on the West facility was their self-appraisal of the dangers in their storage of the fertilizer was the possible inconvenient leak of ammonia which would require some evacuations but no deaths or permanent damage. If that’s true and I think it’s a big if at this point, it seems someone should have been able to predict the explosive nature of what they were storing. It’s not as though there weren’t precedents.
I also read this morning that there are still 60 people unaccounted for. I imagine someone will pay a heavy price the lack of oversight there. Unfortunately, it’s a little too late for many of the people in that town.
I don’t have too many problems with environmental and industrial control being partially or maybe even primarily state based, although I do believe both the EPA and the FDA have an essential role in setting overall guidelines regarding consumer and work related safety, I believe the states have some leeway in how these rules are implemented. I feel fortunate to live in CA because while it might be burdensome to some businesses, I believe we are better off because of our environmental policies that in many cases exceed any Federal regulations, especially in the real of emissions.
One little tidbit of information I gleaned which highlights the difference between CA and TX is I read the West facility didn’t have firewalls which hypothetically may have prevented the spread of the original fire. Here in CA our little 2100 sq ft warehouse in our back yard has a firewall along the back and one side wall because we do, after all, have neighbors even though they’re quite a distance away. We couldn’t pass inspection without it but our city is quite anal about some of this stuff so we paid the price and considered it the cost of doing business.
BTW, I consider a lot of the information I read regarding the supposed lack of oversight in West with some trepidation because as far as I know a lot of it is pure speculation still. I imagine it will be a long time before we know the truth of what happened and why.
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“realm” of emissions
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Scott, are we to assume your daughter will be attending Boston College in the fall? Lucky girl. I know it wasn’t her first choice but I bet she’ll end up loving it. Our youngest missed her top choice by a hair but ended up really happy with her second choice and somehow came to the conclusion she got a better education there than her original plan might have offered. Probably a bit of wishful justification but there it is. And she’s had her pick of schools since so likes to think Stanford didn’t know what they missed out on………….hahahaha
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lms:
Scott, are we to assume your daughter will be attending Boston College in the fall?
In fact an hour ago she announced that yes, she is going to go to BC. We went up for a final look at the campus and take a walk around the city on Saturday, after having been in Virginia last weekend to see William & Mary. Tough decision..W&M is a beautiful place and I think a really great school…but in the end she decided on BC. Just put in the deposit about 10 mins ago.
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Ha, I was thinking of the PL again and realized that the most I could muster in the way of comments in the last several days was some advise to ISO regarding his gout. It’s the same advice I gave Kevin a couple of years ago. Very political of me.
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This guy was on FOX this morning I guess. I don’t really have any skin in the game either way in considering whether there is a true international terrorist connection or a couple of young men with other issues acting together but alone. I just think it’s more likely that this is the truth of the matter. If I’m wrong I’ll admit it and hope we hunt the foreign bastards down. I think it can still be a “hate America” sentiment without the control being outside of these two. I never bought the tax day domestic terrorism angle.
Mudd added that he feared that people were being too quick to categorize the crime as terrorism.
“This looks more to me like Columbine than it does al Qaeda,” the counter terrorism expert observed. “Two kids who radicalized between themselves in a closed circle go out and commit murder. I would charge these guys as murderers, not terrorists.”
Wallace pressed Mudd on how he could dismiss the fact that Dzokhar Tsarnaev’s brother, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, spent six months in Russia “where there are a lot of radicals.”
“I’m not writing that off,” Mudd insisted. “What I’m saying is we want to categorize this… with a simple term, and at looking at the psychology of clusters like this — which I did for 20 years — the psychology is not that simple. It’s two kids who decided, for whatever ideology, that they wanted to commit murder. And the murder piece is as significant as the terrorism piece.”
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/04/21/ex-cia-deputy-director-boston-bombing-more-like-columbine-than-al-qaeda/
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Congratulations! I love watching families embark on this adventure with their children. It was a very important milestone in our children’s lives so enjoy it. Trust me when I say however that your parenting skills will still be needed…….. 😉
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Thanks…first of three. Should be an interesting experience, but not looking forward to the bills. (W&M is cheaper!)
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Mark, here’s a piece with quite a bit of information on the West fertilizer plant. Apparently, that substance falls under DHS regulations.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/20/us-usa-explosion-regulation-idUSBRE93J09N20130420
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LMS, I just replied and it was eaten. I’ll try again later.
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Ha Scott, we just paid off the youngest’s BS bill 10 years later. Both the girls have their own loans for advanced degrees to still pay off. It’s all just too expensive IMO.
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Scott, congrats to your daughter. We sent three through UG. You might hope for uneventful!
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Thanks, Mark.
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“ScottC, on April 21, 2013 at 6:29 pm said:
Thanks…first of three. Should be an interesting experience, but not looking forward to the bills. (W&M is cheaper!)”
Congrats Scott. Had I known you were down in the W&M area I would have bought you a beer if you were passing through Richmond. I think the Virginia colleges in general are a good value for the money.
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jnc:
Thanks. It was a very quick trip to W&M. Drove down on a Friday, got there at about 11pm, spent the whole of the next day at the campus, then drove back Sat night.
I was a big fan of W&M. It wasn’t really a consideration until I told her we should go back down and visit again. It then made her decision more difficult, as she came away really impressed. But ultimately the pull of Boston was too much.
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Boston really is a great college town but the winters are so brutal. Campus visits should be done in February, not April.
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