Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1580.1 | -7.6 | -0.48% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2639.3 | -35.0 | -1.31% |
| Oil (WTI) | 91.94 | -1.6 | -1.68% |
| LIBOR | 0.278 | 0.001 | 0.18% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.45 | 0.202 | 0.25% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.74% | -0.05% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 105.7 | 0.3 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.9 | 0.2 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 190.4 | -0.4 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.57 |
Markets are lower after disappointing retail sales data. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo reported numbers that beat on the headline, but both are down. Bonds and MBS are rallying, with the 10-year yield back below 1.74%.
Retail sales dropped in March by .4%, the most in 9 months. February was revised down. Apparel, furniture and Home improvement retailers reported gains. Electronics stores reported decreases. Given the lousy jobs report last Friday, it isn’t surprising that retail sales fell. Just crossing the tape: Barclay’s has taken down Q1 GDP estimates to 2.8% from 3.2% as a result.
Wells Fargo reported record Q4 earnings, with mortgage originations of $109 billion, down from $125 billion in Q4. MSR valuations were lowered as increasing real estate prices affect prepayment assumptions (Their average MSR note rate is 4.69%). The pipeline is $74 billion, down from $81 billion at the end of Q4.
The IMF is worrying that all of this easy money is going to inflate bubbles elsewhere. IMO, that train has already left the station. A commodity boom and easy money has created a real estate bubble in Canada that is even more expensive than ours was at the peak (median house price to median income ratio is above 5x, while ours peaked around 4.8x in 2006). We probably do have a bond bubble, however the Fed is running the show there and given that it is purchasing 70% of all Treasury issuance, can pretty much handle it has it pleases.
Note: The MR will be spotty next week as I will be on the Left Coast
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
I’m wondering if the consequences from the end of the payroll tax cut has taken effect. There’s your retail consumer right there IMO. Our business relies on our retail customers and it’s been a pretty slow spring so far but finally took off this week, about a month late. Lots of traffic at the last trade show, at least the people were there, what or if they were buying I don’t actually know.
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Wonkblog on the effects of the Payroll Tax cut.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/26/why-didnt-the-payroll-tax-hike-cripple-the-economy-maybe-because-no-one-noticed-it/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/08/the-payroll-tax-hike-just-wiped-out-a-years-worth-of-wage-gains/
Also, He Who Shall Not Be Named on employee pension fund investing.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/dan-loeb-simultaneously-solicits-betrays-pension-funds-20130411
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Thanks jnc. Ha, the Voldemort of opinion writing.
Our business (sporting goods) is also affected by weather in the spring so who knows what’s going on. No one surveys us little guys, we’re the plodders.
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There’s one paragraph in there I badly want to quote but won’t. I do have itchy fingers though. I will say the only time we ever made money on investments were the ones we handled ourselves. But we’re small potatoes obviously and the only time I ever had money in a public employees plan was for two years in the 70’s when I was a high school counselor. I transferred it years later to a straight IRA. It wasn’t much to begin with though. We do have friends and family retiring pretty well though in CA who were teachers, firefighters and principals. We have our rental property and IRAs that we’ve done pretty well with especially since the crash.
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I’m essentially pro-choice but this trial has been getting a lot of play on the right. Should this be a national story? If so, why, if not, why not?
WARNING, THE DETAILS ARE REALLY, REALLY GRUESOME. SERIOUSLY.
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/04/why-dr-kermit-gosnells-trial-should-be-a-front-page-story/274944/
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This story has particular resonance for my current position.
http://m.us.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887324010704578417150135194928-lMyQjAxMTAzMDEwMjExNDIyWj?mg=reno64-wsj
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McWing:
I couldn’t get your link to work.
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Scott, they both worked for me. You can google Conor Friesdorf at The Atlantic and you should find it.
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Must be cause of our inbreeding and inveterate racism.
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2013/04/people_in_the_south_are_not_so.html#incart_river_default
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I still have no idea wtf AG Holder was talking about when he said we’re a nation of cowards for not having a conversation on race.
http://m.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/genuine_conversations_on_race_wd69zJxfbAp36QF2IYyuHP?utm_medium=SFnewyorkpost&utm_content=Oped+Columnists&utm_source=SFnypostopinion
What was he talking about?
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Wow, I don’t think we’re ready for this out here.
From Kelly Hamon, who recently bid $47,000 over the asking price to beat out five other buyers for a cream-colored North Hollywood home:
I am going to have to tighten the budget. Maybe not get TV right away — just Netflix.
The backstory here is the return of the housing bubble to Los Angeles:
The once-in-a-lifetime mentality, fueled by a shortage of for-sale homes, is driving the Los Angeles area from recovery to frenzy, according to real estate agents and experts….Out of all homes sold in March, 91% of [Redfin’s] deals involved a bidding war. And about 10% were investors flipping a property at a profit after buying it just a short time before.
….While cash offers may have proliferated in 2012, this year has ushered in stronger competition in the mortgage market, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance Publications….[Banks] are setting their sights on new home buyers by loosening their underwriting standards and accepting lower down payments. Some lenders have even begun offering piggyback loans — which enable buyers to take multiple mortgages to avoid putting any money down, Cecala said.
“It is mostly something that started in the last month or two,” he said. “The good news for borrowers is that they are starting to see looser underwriting, but it is not looser underwriting across the board.”
….Leo Nordine, a real estate agent in Manhattan Beach, said he recently listed a one-bedroom home in South Los Angeles and got 49 offers….”Everybody I know is trying to do flips right now. It’s like the day trading of the 1990s,” Nordine said. “We went straight from Armageddon to speculation; there was nothing in between this time.”
I’m sure there’s nothing to worry about, though. Los Angeles is unique, after all. And things are different this time. Right?
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/04/happy-days-are-here-again
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McWing, I’m going to put this here because it relates to your link above re Brad Paisley. AmericaBlog and John Aravosis are about as liberal as they come, and he’s also gay and proud. His site deals with a lot of issues and is one of the more progressive sites I enjoy reading. He discussed the song with others and also linked several comments from the Post piece (I think). He saved this one for last because he thought it was important.
I’m not much of a country music fan so can’t really speak to some of this stuff but I think the conversation is good of course, the same way I think the trial of the asshole killing live birth babies is good, as far as murder trials go. I know it’s hard to believe but we’re not all so blind that we can’t tell the difference between right and wrong.
And here is the longer response from reader Josh Sewell of Carrollton, Georgia, filling in a little more background about Brad Paisley and his music:
I wanted to reach out regarding Mr. Aravosis’ story on the new Brad Paisley song. Though I’m not a big country fan, I enjoy Paisley’s work because he’s usually an extraordinarily talented songwriter and musician. Though “Accidental Racist” is ultimately clumsy and unsuccessful, I give him credit for the attempt.
Keep in mind the song isn’t completely autobiographical. He’s singing from the perspective of the character – namely, a guy who represents his target demographic. Without preaching, he’s explaining to a certain segment of his audience why they need to consider other people’s perceptions when defending problematic aspects of their heritage (e.g., the Confederate flag).
Again, I’m not saying he pulls it off; both Paisley’s lyrics and LL Cool J’s rap are extremely problematic. But, believe it or not, he’s still one of the most progressive voices in mainstream country music. Those unfamiliar with his work wouldn’t know how he regularly calls out the genre’s BS in his other work.
Paisley explores these ideas a bit more successfully in a song like “American Saturday Night,” where he sings about people partying on an “American” Saturday night by wearing Brazilian leather boots and getting into a German car to go eat pizza or drink Coronas (a wink to how the nation really is a melting pot, and we’re far more “international” than we realize). Or a song like “Southern Comfort Zone,” which discusses how Southerners can be small-minded, and how they need to experience the rest of the world. It’s especially interesting how he plays on the old, controversial lyric “look away, Dixie Land.”
But where Paisley’s progressive streak really shows is in his song “Welcome to the Future,” which came out in late 2008-early 2009. The first couple of verses lull the listener into a false sense of security. He talks about how he used to beg his parents to drive him to the arcade to play Pac-Man, but now he’s got it on his phone. He mentions that his grandfather fought the Japanese in World War II, but now our countries are allies.
Then comes the final verse:
I had a friend in school
Running back on a football team
They burned a cross in his front yard
For asking out the home coming queen
I thought about him today
And everybody who’s seen what he’s seen
From a woman on a bus
To a man with a dream
Hey, wake up Martin Luther
Welcome to the future
Hey, glory, glory, hallelujah
Welcome to the future
He’s singing about Obama’s inauguration. In a hit country song, that got massive radio airplay. And nobody boycotted or called him a communist — in other words, he didn’t get Dixie Chick’d. That’s amazing to me. What’s more, he performed the song for the President and First Lady at the White House shortly after the 2009 inauguration. I don’t think I can name another mainstream country artist who would put his or her career on the line by doing that.
That’s why I still respect Paisley and enjoy his music, despite his major misstep with “Accidental Racist.” If you take his previous songs into consideration, it’s a little easier to see that this is an example of noble intentions but bad execution.
Hate on him all you want, but he’s an artist who is attempting to teach his audience about race and intolerance in a non-preachy entertaining way. And that’s something we should all welcome.
http://americablog.com/2013/04/brad-paisleys-accidental-racist-reactio.html
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And hey McWing, daughter number 2 just spent the week in Houston for work and was at East Beach in Galveston yesterday. She sent pictures and I couldn’t believe how deserted the beach was. She said the water was warmer than here this time of year but still a little cold. She’s trying to convince her boyfriend, who is a Coloradan all the way, that she may have to drag him to Houston one of these days. She loved the office there (Anadarko) and the people and knows there’s a lot more opportunity than in the Denver office………………even though she loves CO. She really liked the diversity in Houston though, and the restaurants.
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Lms, I’m not trying to be obtuse. Is the thinking that whites should keep apologizing for slavery? My ancestors arrived in the 1880’s from Europe, what is it I should apologize for, if that is what AG Holder is talking about. I honestly have no idea.
Regards Houston. It is a fantastic city, diverse and dynamic. It’s what LA could have been.;-)
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My ancestors arrived in the 1880′s from Europe
My grandfather (seven times removed) was a Captain in the Revolutionary War. I know the names of his slaves. And his descendants fought for the Confederacy. My sister and my mother were both born in Texas and my family on my mother’s side was all born in the south, mostly Tennessee and Arkansas.
I feel no need to apologize for slavery any longer as my generation has reconciled our past with our present. Eric Holder doesn’t speak to me, but neither do people still flying confederate flags over their homes. I think it’s up to individuals to reconcile their past racism, if it exists, with their current attitude. That not everyone has been able to do that is where the struggle continues, for both blacks and whites.
I think that denying racism still exists whether it’s in the south or down the street five houses from me and the guy who yells “nigger” lover every time he drives by our house is undeniable. And so I think a conversation is still valuable.
I personally don’t assume that everyone who lives in the South is a racist or that everyone who listens to Rush Limbaugh is an asshole misogynist. I also don’t think we should assume everyone who supports choice approves of or condones the actions a murdering SOB who kills babies born alive in a late term procedure that should never have happened in the first place.
I think it’s too bad when we view people who disagree with us politically in such absolute terms, and it happens on both sides, and comes from otherwise intelligent people. It makes it difficult to be friends though doesn’t it?
To the extent that people try to generate those conversations I mostly condone it, even if sometimes their premise is a little off and they might express it awkwardly.
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“think that denying racism still exists whether it’s in the south or down the street five houses from me and the guy who yells “nigger” lover every time he drives by our house is undeniable. “
Who is denying racism exists? It has always existed and I suspect it always will. Someone willing to yell “Niggerlover” in public is beyond a conversation, common sense tells us that and I hope AG Holder knows that. So, what does he want? I suspect to equate political differences with racism, ie, if you disagree with me politically, you’re a racist. What other possibility could there be?
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if you disagree with me politically, you’re a racist
I don’t know how you get there from him calling people cowards because they avoid a conversation about race. I’m not a big Holder fan and can’t begin to understand what goes on in his head but i doubt he meant his comment that way. I could be wrong though.
I was simply pointing out that because there was criticism from some quarters on the left re the country singer and Rand Paul, it’s not a universally held belief. I don’t think in absolutes like that and I doubt that many other people left or right do either. I know a few who do however.
I know people who hate me because of my political and religious philosophies as I’m sure you probably do as well. When I find someone who seems to honestly evaluate a position I like to point it out specifically because they are going against the grain of their supposed ideology. I thought the Americablog piece did that to a certain extent which is why I linked it as a response to your assumption about the left and the country singer and Rand Paul.
Racism is actually one of those subjects I like to avoid normally so I think I’ll just leave it at that for now. Thanks for the conversation and yeah Los Angeles isn’t exactly paradise is it? We spent the weekend there last week though and had a good time. I’m not a big city girl though so I tend to avoid downtown areas unless it’s as a tourist occasionally. I could never live in one……………not even SF. 🙂
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I guess that makes me a coward too. Oh well, I guess I can live with that.
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In all sincerity, who are the people avoiding a conversation on race?
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Me, for one, it’s not worth it to me anymore. By trying to point out racist comments from others I’ve generally found that people are accused of playing a race card which of course makes it difficult to continue forthright discussion don’t you think? It seem pointless to discuss racism in this context here because I haven’t noticed anyone here who actually is a racist to my knowledge.
However, when politicians or people who are leaders in some way make a racist comment and people who might agree with that person on other matters ignore it, then those ignoring it are being uncourageous I suppose. So maybe that’s where the conversation needs to be……………..I honestly don’t know.
Look, I grew up with racists, my own parents and nearly every other family member older than me. It took a lot of work ridding my family of their racist tendencies and my generation of cousins and myself and my sister did the heavy lifting on that. My parents disowned me because I dated a black guy in college and they assumed we were having sex, which disgusted him. It doesn’t get much worse than that. My parent’s best friends disowned their daughter because she married a Hawaiian for God’s sake. We were both in family purgatory for years. I feel somewhat confident when I hear a racist comment that I recognize it but I no longer point it out. It’s easier to walk away…………………………but if people want to get into a dialogue about racism more power to them.
I think it would be more valuable to figure out why AA’s are statistically poorer than the white community and how we can remedy the fact that so many black men are in our prisons. Where have we gone wrong as a society that we recognize equality but foster this economic discrepancy? I don’t find accusing people of either being racists or of playing the race card all that helpful. And maybe Holder’s comments didn’t really advance his cause much either.
Out for the rest of the day for “another” birthday party……………..ugggghhh.
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disgusted him………….being my father.
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“Me, for one, it’s not worth it to me anymore. By trying to point out racist comments from others I’ve generally found that people are accused of playing a race card which of course makes it difficult to continue forthright discussion don’t you think?”
Well, it depends on what the racist statement was and whether a reasonable person might think the statement was or was not racist. If I had someone tell me my statement was racist, I’d consider it and if I disagreed I would seriously question their motives. Isn’t that what most people would do?
“However, when politicians or people who are leaders in some way make a racist comment and people who might agree with that person on other matters ignore it, then those ignoring it are being uncourageous I suppose. So maybe that’s where the conversation needs to be……………..I honestly don’t know.”.
As far as I know there is no universally agreed upon set of racist standards, and it wouldn’t make sense to have a conversation about race if the statement wasn’t racist. I remember once Charlie Rangle stating that being against a tax increase meant you are a racist. What’s racist for one (and I shudder to think that he actually believed that) is not necessarily racist, particularly when it comes to politics.
“My parents disowned me because I dated a black guy in college and they assumed we were having sex, which disgusted him. It doesn’t get much worse than that.”
I’m sorry that happened to you.
“I think it would be more valuable to figure out why AA’s are statistically poorer than the white community and how we can remedy the fact that so many black men are in our prisons. Where have we gone wrong as a society that we recognize equality but foster this economic discrepancy?”
Do you assume it’s attributable to racism? Could there be an issue with AA culture?
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Uh, if this is the case,
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/10/1200719/-Obama-s-Social-Security-cuts-Let-me-make-this-very-simple-for-you
Then why the need for this?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/12/1201361/-Raising-payroll-tax-cap-is-the-best-fix-for-Social-Security
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I agree with you McWing that it’s not always knowable regarding racist statements, which is one reason I prefer not to have these discussions. I believe that with the experiences I’ve had and the friends I have and their stories that I know a little about racism, but there’s no reason in the world for you to believe me or trust me, and I don’t really expect you or anyone else to for that matter. I know what I think I know much like everyone else who has an opinion. I’m not one to assume I’m always correct though and can certainly be persuaded that I might be wrong………………which is actually another valuable conversation.
And no I don’t think the economic discrepancy is strictly because of racism although it certainly started out that way. Even when AA’s fled the south because of Jim Crow laws and went north and west it wasn’t a panacea for them. There were doors closed to them in Los Angeles, Chicago and Detroit as well as the South. The opportunities were just different than they were for whites. Where do you think AA culture came from?
If I had someone tell me my statement was racist, I’d consider it and if I disagreed I would seriously question their motives. Isn’t that what most people would do?
Of course they would and I think there are still those kind of conversations going on in families and work places across the country. I still think the conversation is an important one and it sounds like you do too actually so I don’t see where we disagree. I might be a little picky who I have those conversations with though. I know when to keep my mouth shut……………………most of the time.
I think there are also a lot of baseless racist and race baiting accusations flying back and forth by people who aught to know better and that is precisely another reason I prefer to stay away from these conversations. We can always find someone to accuse of one or the other and then it becomes a battle of who said what and which was worse. I don’t enjoy those discussions either. It seems to me like a lot of online dialogue takes place in those kind of, what I like to call “dark alleys”. I won’t go there.
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I like the conversation you and George are having. I assume Eric Holder does not know you are having a conversation about race. Perhaps we could tell him we talk about race a lot and he will be mollified; or better, he will resign, knowing his work has been done.
I cannot remember the last AG I really liked.
As for racism and race baiting, I read an interesting article. The methodology seems weak to me, but it is nevertheless interesting.
http://tinyurl.com/6ocns2f
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Mark:
I cannot remember the last AG I really liked.
Robert Bork?
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or better, he will resign,
We can only hope Mark. Of course then the question becomes one of who will replace him. Geithner resigned………………………
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“I cannot remember the last AG I really liked.”
I still give Ashcroft a lot of credit for being willing to resign over this incident:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/15/AR2007051500864.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/15/AR2007051501043.html
The older I get, the more I have come to believe that integrity and ethics are more important to the preservation of the republic than ideology per se when it comes to the executive branch.
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“ScottC, on April 15, 2013 at 6:40 am said: Edit Comment
Mark:
I cannot remember the last AG I really liked.
Robert Bork?”
He was solicitor general, correct never AG except in a temporary acting capacity?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork
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jnc:
He was solicitor general, correct never AG except in a temporary acting capacity?
Yes…just acting AG for a few months. I was only joking (sort of).
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Heh, just saw this and aught=ought. Sometimes I think I’m getting senile. That’s scarier to me than cancer would be.
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NPR says get out of the house, exercise, and have a good nutritious diet and something good will happen but I can’t remember what… .
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Funny Mark…………I’m doing all the right things of course, but time just won’t stand still for me…………….dammit.
jnc, integrity and ethics………….I like that thought.
Here’s a piece from Freeland re Obama and his identity with the 99% and how difficult it is, not completely relevant but interesting. I don’t know how much I believe it now but I used to.
http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2013/04/11/the-sorrow-and-the-pity-of-obamas-budget/
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Going through this list:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Attorney_General#List_of_attorneys_general
I’d go with Michael Mukasey & Richard L. Thornburgh. I didn’t like all of Mukasey’s war on terror policies or conclusions of law, but I’d argue he had integrity and was competent.
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Here’s a drug testing story that freaks me out. Apparently the trials were not only fraudulent but they’re not giving us the list of drugs willingly. Pro-publica discovered five of them but the FDA is retesting some of the others.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/04/15/fda-secretly-retests-100-different-drugs-after-testing-company-admits-its-work-was-all-fraudulent/
Here’s a list of five of the drugs. Ha, one of them was prescribed for me last year (tramadol) for back pain…………………..I never took them though.
http://projects.propublica.org/graphics/cetero
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