Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| S&P Futures | 1564.7 | 0.3 | 0.02% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2665.2 | -14.6 | -0.54% |
| Oil (WTI) | 96.64 | -0.5 | -0.57% |
| LIBOR | 0.281 | -0.001 | -0.35% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.81 | -0.117 | -0.14% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.85% | -0.01% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.6 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.3 | 0.0 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 189.3 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.69 |
Markets are flat after a mixed ADP Employment report. They forecast that the private sector added 158k jobs in March, below the 200k estimate. February was revised upward, however to 237k. Mortgage Applications fell 4%. Bonds and MBS are flat
The Obama administration is pushing banks to lend to borrowers with weaker credit, encouraging them to use FHA loans and to use more subjective judgment in determining whether to offer a loan. Of course the CFPB has already drawn a line in the sand with DTI. Housing officials are urging the Justice Department to provide assurances to banks that they will not face legal consequences if they comply and the borrowers subsequently default. Working against this initiative is that (a) the CFPB has drawn a bright line around the qualifying mortgage and (b) Ginnie Mae will flush an originator when they get 5% to 10% portfolio delinquencies.
On the other hand, credit IS easing, especially for those who had short sales or foreclosures during the housing bust. Of the 7 million borrowers who had a foreclosure or a short sale, about 1 million are eligible for an FHA mortgage. Second, the return of the private label market (however small) will allow borrowers who don’t fit in the government bucket or the super high quality jumbo bucket to get financing.
Fannie Mae’s record profit has some questioning the future of the housing finance. According to the Administration’s White Paper, the intention seemed to be that the government would euthanize Fan and Fred and replace them with an entity that would act as a re-insurer. However, with more pressing issues facing the Administration, dealing with the GSEs has taken a back seat. In the interim, they are improving their balance sheets and have paid back nearly half of what they owe to the government. And with the stock approaching $1.00, the 4.6 billion shares owned by the government start to become significant. It will become harder to kill the company when the stock is worth some money. That is obviously what the market has figured out, as the stock has tripled since Fannie announced they will be profitable nearly 3 weeks ago.
Chart: Fannie Mae Stock Price:
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Lowering lending standards sounds pretty risky to me and very familiar.
Here’s a comment re the jobs report, don’t know if it’s true or not.
March’s pullback was largely due to construction jobs flatlining after showing strength in recent months, said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. There were zero new construction jobs in March.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/03/us-usa-economy-employment-adp-idUSBRE9320IX20130403
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From teh WaPo article:
“If the only people who can get a loan have near-perfect credit and are putting down 25 percent, you’re leaving out of the market an entire population of creditworthy folks, which constrains demand and slows the recovery,” said Jim Parrott, who until January was the senior adviser on housing for the White House’s National Economic Council.
One reason, according to policymakers, is that as young people move out of their parents’ homes and start their own households, they will be forced to rent rather than buy, meaning less construction and housing activity. Given housing’s role in building up a family’s wealth, that could have long-lasting consequences.”
Horrors. forced to rent? They keep distorting the market. they’re doing their best to drive prices up, which also “forces” the kids to rent.
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The ADP jobs report has been a lousy indicator of what DOL will report lately..
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Conjecture from McArdle. I read the Klein piece and I think it affirms the issues I pointed out the other day, specifically, it’s impossible to make government efficient.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/03/obamacare-won-t-be-doing-much-for-small-business-next-year.html
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Press ethics rant. Why do you need a grant of anonymity to make this statement?
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Worth recognizing in this forum for those who didn’t see it on PL:
“NoVAHockey
2:53 PM EDT
i’m working a pro bono case for a vet. can’t get into it, but it’s just a nightmare”
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BTW, here’s the moronic Klein piece.
What’s disgusting is the # of R’s who’d be willing to be caretakers of the welfare state. Slim Pickens riding the nuke in.
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Good luck w/ the Vet case, Nova. Try for the Gregory, Rangel, Daschle, Geithner exception.
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I haven’t been spending much time at the PL lately but way to go NoVA, for a libertarian you’re a pretty nice guy.
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Yellow: This is Ron Swanson worthy:
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I can only imagine the criticism the Bush administration would receive if they did this:
“U.S. to deploy anti-missile system to Guam
By Karen DeYoung, Wednesday, April 3, 3:48 PM
The United States will deploy a sophisticated anti-missile defense system to Guam in response to North Korean threats to U.S. military bases in the Pacific, the Pentagon said Wednesday.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-to-deploy-anti-missile-system-to-guam/2013/04/03/b939ecfc-9c89-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_story.html?hpid=z1
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I’m only linking this Reuter’s piece because of the following selection, it’s not an endorsement of their ideas. I didn’t realize that the pension situation had changed this radically.
For much of the last generation, employer defined-benefit pensions guaranteed a stable source of elderly income. Workers, who often spent entire careers at the same firm, could rely on the employer defined-benefit pension. In 1980, about 40 percent of private-sector workers had a defined-benefit pension from their employer, including 84 percent for workers in large companies.
Since the mid-1980s, however, defined-benefit pensions have steeply declined. Fewer than 15 percent of all private-sector workers, and 32 percent of those in large companies, have these pensions today – a 62 percent drop.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/04/03/social-security-as-solution-not-problem/
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I’ve been looking for more neutral websites and stumbled on this one which might be interesting. The name alone should appeal to some of you here. It remains to be seen, however, how neutral and data driven it really is. I’ve bookmarked it for now.
“Data Driven Viewpoints”
http://datadrivenviewpoints.com/
I’m reading this piece right now and then finishing up a quilt I’ve been working on since the first of the year……………….yay. A little boring but informative at least.
datadrivenviewpoints.com/2012/12/03/a-99-year-history-of-u-s-income-tax-rates/http://datadrivenviewpoints.com/
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That second link was bad, I’ll try again.
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NoVA:
I saw that little blurb about your pro bono case. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for whatever it is that you’re doing.
I’m also intrigued by your saying “no” when the PA state trooper wanted to search your car. I haven’t had a run-in with cops (possibly because I know so many of them here, and one of the deputy chiefs has already called the Baltimore cops to tell them I’m coming) but TSA and I are not friends. Christmas 2011 I had a run-in with the TSA at Detroit Metro. I won–I made my flight on time.
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I was just outside and noticed that my neighbor’s hyacinths are blooming. it smells like heaven in my back yard right now!
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Wow!
http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2013/04/03/as-lead-sponsor-in-house-on-gun-legislation-rep-diana-degette-appears-to-not-understand-how-they-work/93506/
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Unintended consequences?
“If we treated the patients receiving the most expensive drugs, we’d be out of business in six months to a year,” said Jeff Vacirca, chief executive of North Shore Hematology Oncology Associates in New York. “The drugs we’re going to lose money on we’re not going to administer right now.”
After an emergency meeting Tuesday, Vacirca’s clinics decided that they would no longer see one-third of their 16,000 Medicare patients.
“A lot of us are in disbelief that this is happening,” he said. “It’s a choice between seeing these patients and staying in business.”
Some who have been pushing the federal government to spend less on health care say this is not the right approach.
“I don’t think there was an intention to disrupt care or move it into a more expensive setting,” said Cathy Schoen, senior vice president of the Commonwealth Fund, which recently released a plan for cutting $2 trillion in health spending. “If that’s the case, we’re being penny-wise and a pound-foolish with these cuts.”
Legislators meant to partially shield Medicare from the automatic budget cuts triggered by the sequester, limiting the program to a 2 percent reduction — a fraction of the cuts seen by other federal programs.
But oncologists say the cut is unexpectedly damaging for cancer patients because of the way those treatments are covered.
Medications for seniors are usually covered under the optional Medicare Part D, which includes private insurance. But because cancer drugs must be administered by a physician, they are among a handful of pharmaceuticals paid for by Part B, which covers doctor visits and is subject to the sequester cut.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/03/cancer-clinics-are-turning-away-thousands-of-medicare-patients-blame-the-sequester/
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Those cancer clinics are simply using a ‘bully’ technique. If anyone, other than myself, read Time magazines March edition, please chime in.
When a hospital bills a cancer patient for treatment, it is outrageous they charge the patient as much as $13,000 for one treatment that actually only cost the hospital MAYBE $3500.
As for what Medicate pays, it is mandated by Congress, and it is set at Cost plus 6%. And that cost determined DOES include the cost of not only the particular drug or treatment, but all additional costs related to operations, maintenance and R&D. So whenever you hear a doctor or hospital say they are losing money due to Medicare restraints, they are absolutely lying.
The Chargemaster being used for all medical pricing should be eliminated as it is an egregious method used to milk as much profit as possible, even way beyond any needs of the hospital. And the problem with all this is they are able to continue to do so as long as we, the patient, have no idea what they are doing and simply believe that is truly what medical treatment costs.
The Chargemaster is the sole reason patients in the U.S. pay many times over for the same medical care than any other country.
There is no reason medical care/treatment should be in the realm of the “free market”… it is not an option for anyone, it is a life and death necessity and should not be something that is “sold” at a profit which in many cases is a profit of over 10,000%.
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