Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1549.2 | 0.1 | 0.01% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2687.4 | -21.5 | -0.79% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.4 | -0.1 | -0.11% |
| LIBOR | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.77 | -0.014 | -0.02% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.95% | -0.01% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 191.8 | -0.5 |
Markets are flat this morning after Oracle’s miss. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 336k, more or less in line with last week. The Markit PMI came in a little better than expected. Bonds and MBS are up small.
Nothing earth-shattering came out of the FOMC statement or the press conference yesterday. In the projections section, they have taken down the GDP estimate for 2013 slightly, moving the top end of the range from 3.0% to 2.8%. They also have decreased 2013 unemployment estimate a little, taking the range midpoint from 7.55% to 7.4%. Whether that is being driven down by a pessimistic labor force participation rate or optimistic hiring plans is unclear. Overall, it was a “steady as she goes” sort of statement. People who want to compare this statement with the previous one can do so here. Bernake’s body language suggested that he isn’t interested in staying on after his term expires in Jan 2014. Early favorite to replace The Bernank: Geithner. Janet Yellen and Larry Summers are the other names mentioned.
The FHFA House Price Index increased .6% in January, just missing the +.7% estimate. New England fell .7%, while the Pacific division rose 1.6%. The index focuses solely on houses purchased with conforming loans, so in some ways, it is more of a “central tendency” index in that distressed and jumbos are excluded.
Chart: FHFA House Price Index:
Ellie Mae’s Origination Insight Report showed that the purchases increased from 27% to 32% of all originations as interest rates backed up last month. FHA increased its share to 20% while conventional fell to 71%. Days to close fell from 54 days to 50, and it appears that credit is starting to ease up a bit as the average FICO fell from 749 to 745. Pull-through increased to 56.8% from 55% in January.
Signs of life in the private label market: JP Morgan is marketing a $616MM prime RMBS offering, its first post-crisis deal. Everbank is marketing a $308.4MM offering. I don’t see anything on EDGAR yet, so I’ll try and get a flavor of what they are selling and pass it on.
The Senate passed a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through the end of its fiscal year. The House is expected to vote on it today. Some of the sharp edges of the sequestration were filed down in the process. No one is expecting a government shutdown. On to the debt ceiling in August.
Market darling Lululemon has a transparency issue. No not that kind..
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
I believe I have previously noted on this board that Lululemon is the uniform of suburban yoga dilettantes. As with any good which is overpriced based on cachet rather than intrinsic value it is easy for competitors to undercut on price which is what is already happening. If the perceived quality of the name brand product is brought into disrepute, it is even easier.
For women the primary value seems to be opaqueness. For men who wear slightly looser exercise garments when practicing yoga, the key feature is to avoid accidental exposure of the twig and berries through the pants leg.
So for women the test pose in front of a mirror is Downward Dog while for men it would be Half Moon (which is not what you would initially assume).
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Are we talking hot yoga? If so, I’m not sure the half moon is the best test.
Just sayin’
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I don’t see the point in hot yoga except to people who don’t believe they are exercising unless they are sweating profusely.
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Solution, yoga nekkid.
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Paul Krugman gets to the root issue of Cyprus:
All of the ongoing financial problems in the US and Europe starting from 2008 on can be directly traced back to the continuing desire and subsequent policy choices to try something other than “an explicit bank resolution” with “clear seniority” to address bank insolvency.
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In other words, letting banks fail w/out a bailout and going through the regular legal system.
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Correct. That has to be avoided at all costs. I’m with David Stockman
“DAVID STOCKMAN: You can’t save free enterprise by suspending the rules just at the hour they’re needed. The rules are needed when it comes time to take losses. Gains are easy for people to realize. They’re easy for people to capture. It’s the rules of the game are most necessary when the losses have to occur because mistakes have been made, errors have been made, speculation has gone too far. ”
http://billmoyers.com/segment/david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism/
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And it’s a wrap folks:
The Sequester: smooth and drama-free
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Nice catch on Lululemon, Brent. I saw that story last night and wondered if there was a way to do a tasteful comment on it. . . well done!
Ahem. Let The Madness Begin!!!
MSU and Valparaiso have tipped off. Go State!
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One last update on our health insurance dilemma. I’ve struck out finding individual insurance for myself so am stuck with the $250-$300 higher bill (for now) than I would otherwise find for the same coverage on the individual market. I was successful in getting Walter out of his commitment to group insurance while maintaining mine as a single employee so we will save about $550/month. Looks like we’ll be able to purchase that new car this year after all…………………………….hooray.
I’ll leave you guys and gals to your own devices again. I’m not sure this saga was interesting to anyone but I thought just in case it comes up somewhere in your lives or those of a friend of family member, it might be an interesting conundrum to some of you.
See ‘ya again sometime.
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You might think I’m not serious, but I encourage Republicans to get to the left of Obama on immigration. I’d legalize everyone essentially instantly and open the borders. You get here, you get citizenship. Then I’d demagogue the shit out of D opposition.
We need population growth to survive, no way around it. Every period post large immigration waves has been very high growth.
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Thanks, Michi!
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Troll is on to something here.
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or just on something. either way. woo!
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There’s a reason they call it “dope.”
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“Give me a shot of Snake Juice, I hear it has a dope aftertaste.”
/Swanson
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Interesting piece on the inevitable failure of central command.
But this time it’ll be different.
http://reason.com/archives/2013/03/20/why-price-controls-wont-fix-american-hea
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Just like drinking bong water.
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actually, i like your idea. but we should fly people in from the former soviet bloc.
like my old german teacher who escaped to freedom through a mine field. she didn’t put up with shit. we need to toughen up a bit. that and they have a healthy disrespect for authority.
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McWing:
I like your idea too, but open immigration, as attractive as it is, is not compatible with the modern welfare state.
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Scott, zero growth or less dooms a welfare state as well. My opinion is that our welfare state is bound to collapse, regardless, it’s what comes after that is of concern. A growing population, with unrestricted human capital, essentially out economic system, can rebuild. A shrinking population like Japan (and in the future, China) collapse and never recover.
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What Scott said (circle this date!).
And MSU absolutely clobbered Valpo, so the tourney is starting off well.
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As a side note, we basically have open immigration now, you get a visa, you’re not forced to leave. Ditto at the border, get beyond the 20 mile zone and you’re golden.
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McWing:
Scott, zero growth or less dooms a welfare state as well. My opinion is that our welfare state is bound to collapse, regardless, it’s what comes after that is of concern.
I can’t argue with that. So I suppose the choice is to prolong the agony or speed it up and get it over with.
As a side note, we basically have open immigration now, you get a visa, you’re not forced to leave.
Yeah, the only people who are forced to leave are the ones who actually try to do it the right way. At the place I play tennis there is a tennis pro from eastern Europe. Her work visa was expiring so she had to apply to renew. It should have been fairly straight forward, but her lawyer missed a deadline for filing something, so she got kicked out of the country. She can reapply, but only from her native country. So she had to decide whther to stay and become illegal or leave and risk that she will be denied and not let back in. Given the hoards of known illegals even way up here in the northeast, the whole situation seems absurd, that becoming legal is more difficult than staying here illegally.
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Thanks for the update lmsinca. Hope it all works out for you guys in the end.
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Yep, it’s going to suck too:
http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/videos/new-star-trek-trailer-offers-menacing-vision-of-future-20130321
I’ll catch this one on network TV.
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Between the bigotry against bicyclists and the irrational hatred of the New Star Trek movies, I don’t think I can participate in such a close-minded forum any more.
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Just call it the libertarian war on all things yello holds dear.
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I grow weary of the misuse of the word “science”.
“Science” has nothing to do with limiting magazine capacity.
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jnc:
“Science” has nothing to do with limiting magazine capacity.
Science has nothing to do with most political policies that invoke science as a justification.
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jnc: try being a scientist. . . then you’ll really grow weary!
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And enough of the Star Trek stuff–Fast and Furious 6 is coming out on May 24th!
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you guys are way off. Kick Ass 2. it’s got the red-band trailer.
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NoVA: Kick Ass does not have Vin Diesel.
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Look, I’m not the one with the breathtakingly stupid opinion that the Star Trek reboot sucks.
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Pitch Black was pretty cool.
Also, a parent at daycare mentioned he was going to Tokyo for work. A kid asked if he was going to go drift racing.
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FYI — Cato is offering discounts on bulk orders of pocket constitutions. 10 for $10.
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Nova:
Cato is offering discounts on bulk orders of pocket constitutions. 10 for $10.
I’d be surprised if they could even get that much. I thought the Supreme’s ACA decision made it crystal clear that the constitution isn’t worth the paper it is printed on.
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Do they include the Secret 13th Amendment?
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thought the Supreme’s ACA decision made it crystal clear that the constitution isn’t worth the paper it is printed on.
Here’s a bucket of water to put your hair out.
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Science has nothing to do with most political policies that invoke science as a justification.
Depends on if you’re using science the correct way, or just trying to argue that it’s not true (and stomping your feet while doing so). Many policies have been put in place with good science backing them up (clean water, clean air, etc.).
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Mich:
Depends on if you’re using science the correct way
No, it doesn’t. Law is about values, not science.
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Law is about values, not science.
And science is about truth. Ah, the dichotomies!
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Mich:
And science is about truth.
No it isn’t. Science is about gaining knowledge and understanding.
This article might give you a somewhat less arrogant perspective.
But that is all beside the point, which was that people who claim their political policy preferences are dictated by “science” are either fooling themselves or trying to fool someone else.
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I have another anecdotal story to share with y’all, just about as boring as my last one. Every year for the last 10 or 12 years we’ve attended one of the semi-annual ASD/AMD trade shows in Las Vegas. We never made it last year, I was too sick in March and we were too broke in August to attend. It’s never a big reward for us to go but we do find merchandise we can sell our customers occasionally so we generally like to go once a year anyway.
Not counting last year, since we weren’t there, we’ve seen the show decrease in both size and enthusiasm since 2008, quite dramatically. This year it was not only huge, two floors each at the Convention Center and the Sands Expo, the traffic and transactions were quite obviously greatly increased from the more recent years we attended.
I’m sure most of you are unfamiliar with the show but it’s essentially a general merchandise show which includes just about everything you can imagine including new products so it’s not industry specific. We were really surprised at the difference from just two years ago. People come from all over the world to sell their wares to retailers, distributors and wholesalers so it encompasses a lot of different business types.
Anyway, it gave us a little encouragement that we might have a busier than normal year so I thought I’d pass that along in case it might be valuable information for any of you or another sign that the economy may really be improving.
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Did Mr. Cuomo arrive at that number scientifically?
This is just Rosenthal being reflexively contemptuous of science as a concept rather than just harping on the observation that the limit was arbitrary and unrealistic. It is emblematic that in conservative circles anything scientific merits mocking and that things can be mocked by being called scientific even if the topic is in no way related to science.
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yello:
This is just Rosenthal being reflexively contemptuous of science as a concept rather than just harping on the observation that the limit was arbitrary and unrealistic.
Andrew Rosenthal, editorial page editor of the New York Times, a conservative?!?!? Hilarious, and raises the question of just who it is who is demonstrating reflexive contempt.
In fact Rosenthal’s comment, which seemed to me a sincere question, not snark, is emblematic of the fact that in liberal circles their political preferences are routinely believed to be the unavoidable consequence of scientific reasoning, a belief that is demonstrated by liberals’ tedious resort to the stupid “war on science” whine so often when someone disagrees with liberal orthodoxy.
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10 out of 16. I had New Mexico in the Elite 8, so that’s bad. but otherwise still okay. I have Georgetown winning it all. Figured the Jesuits are having a good year.
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nova:
13 out of 16. And one of the 3 misses was a longshot upset pick..Valparaiso over Mich State. All my elite 8 picks still alive, although 2 of my misses I had going to the sweet sixteen.
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Anybody else turned on by this?
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/LIRR-Kegel-Ads-Controversy-Health-TV-Channel-199442121.html
Hey, where’s Brent with a new thread? Effin’ 1% and their banker’s hours!
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Funny article,
The media gets all butthurt when their Jesus is criticized. Ask my ‘Cuda.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/21/why-paul-ryan-s-star-dimmed.html
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Scott, being told by you that I have an arrogant perspective has made my whole year. Thank you!
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Mich:
You’re welcome. Did you read the article?
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“yellojkt, on March 21, 2013 at 7:18 pm said:
Did Mr. Cuomo arrive at that number scientifically?
This is just Rosenthal being reflexively contemptuous of science as a concept rather than just harping on the observation that the limit was arbitrary and unrealistic.”
Reading the entire post, my impression is that he was serious and objected to the lack of expert testimony on magazine capacity and why seven was more appropriate than ten. It was part of his overall critique of the legislation as “rushed” which they made at the time as well.
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/new-yorks-gun-bill/
The lack of debate and public input criticism has merit, but of course that was by design, lest the ability to leverage the recent events to enact new restrictions was lost. However, there’s still no “science” involved in arbitrarily limiting magazine capacities.
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However, there’s still no “science” involved in arbitrarily limiting magazine capacities.
I don’t disagree in the least. Rosenthal was the only one asserting there was any and he seems to be doing it in a sarcastic and flippant way completely unrelated to the issue at hand.
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Since you asked, it all seemed like a lot of fuzzy-headed mumbo jumbo to me. As an example, this paragraph seemed particularly strawmanish:
I don’t even know he is saying there. Is he saying scientific knowledge is never true? Or that we should discount it because it might be contradicted in the future? Is scientific knowledge less obviously wrong than pre-scientific notions? I guess principles can be valuable even if they aren’t true. There is some serious zen koan stuff being spouted here.
And I disagree with him that Newton’s Laws were wrong about most of what they were supposed to explain. They were mostly right as even he said they are still incredibly useful just one sentence earlier. Relativity builds on Newtonian physics, it doesn’t eliminate it. One doesn’t need relativistic corrections to run a ballistic targeting calculator.
I googled this guy a little and he seems to be a retired scientist running a small Buddhist retreat. I’ll say something for you, Scott. You have an amazingly eclectic if somewhat obscure reading list.
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yello:
Since you asked, it all seemed like a lot of fuzzy-headed mumbo jumbo to me.
I think his point, and the reason I linked to it in response to Mich, was pretty much summed up by this from the introduction:
The unceasing flow of scientific progress makes talking about the truth of scientific knowledge seem quite paradoxical, actually. How can knowledge that is completely correct — which is what we mean when we say that it is true — keep changing all the time?
We know that many facts and principles that we currently accept will be replaced by ones that are obviously superior — not just a little closer to the truth, but whole new ways of looking at things — theories that reveal facets of the natural world that today we can’t even imagine. That progress is obviously quite wonderful, but it does create a problem for people who want to believe that science produces or approximates truth: We have no way to know if what we currently believe about any particular aspect of the natural world is the final word on the subject — or if it will someday be thoroughly transformed in the light of new discoveries, more powerful analytical tools, and more accurate measurements.
I’ll say something for you, Scott. You have an amazingly eclectic if somewhat obscure reading list.
The internet is a wonderful thing. I am even a faithful reader of your posts and comments here. (Although I don’t think I have yet linked to any of them elsewhere.)
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Scott, that is one of the most specious summations of science I’ve ever read. However, given your “arguments” that you’ve had with me, Mike and FB I’m not surprised that you admire it.
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Mich:
Scott, that is one of the most specious summations of science I’ve ever read.
I’m curious, what specifically do you object to?
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