Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1499.6 | 6.2 | 0.42% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2645.8 | 20.6 | 0.78% |
| Oil (WTI) | 96.73 | 0.6 | 0.58% |
| LIBOR | 0.296 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.63 | 0.075 | 0.09% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.01% | 0.06% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 193 | -0.1 |
Markets have a better tone this morning after yesterday’s sell-off. Euro sovereign yields are down. Bond yields are at the 2% level.
Stock index futures back up. Dell doing a $23B LBO. Retail Investors Returning. Bonds can’t get out of their own way. Is the risk-on trade happening? Feels like it. That said, the S&P 500 is nearing the top of its trading range since 2000. The 1970s bear market was a rangebound market where people would start to pile in at the top, only to have a crisis or inflation push the market back down. The final cri de coeur was Business Week’s late 1979 piece The Death of Equities. That is what secular bear markets feel like when they end. The article even quotes a very happy diamond dealer in NY after ERISA changed the laws to let institutions buy hard assets, as if CALPERS was going to start burying gemstones in the back yard.
Chart: 1970s Bear Market in Stocks.
The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 8.3% in December, the biggest jump since May 2006. Excluding distressed sales, prices increased 7.5%. They are forecasting a 7.9% YOY jump in January. The states with the biggest growth were AZ, NV, ID, CA, and HI. The worst were DE, IL, NJ, and PA. It does feel like the secular bear in real estate is over.
Listings of new homes has dropped to a 12-year low. For all of the fears of the shadow inventory, the problem seems to be a lack of merchandise. Many potential sellers are holding out for better prices, while professional investors are buying properties before they even hit the market. Mark Zandi of Moody’s estimates that inventories might remain tight for a year or two. Sellers are worried that they may not be able to find a replacement home if they sell. This means the homebuilders are going to have a very good year.
Senate Democrats are trying to figure out a way to delay the sequestration cuts scheduled to take effect March 1. They are looking to replace the spending cuts with a surtax on oil companies and an end to the carried interest loophole. Meanwhile, House Republicans are considering a stopgap measure that would fund the government through Sep 30, which is $974 billion, well below the current level of $1.043T. Implicit in that measure is the assumption that the sequestration cuts happen. Republicans are resigned to having to accept the sequestration cuts and don’t have the appetite to try an negotiate a deal with the WH, which is going to delay releasing its budget until late March. While it has zero prospect of getting enacted as-is, it will be a clue as to whether the President is interested in some sort of long-term solution to the budget or is content to fiddle at the margins with what is currently out there.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
As much as I despise them, the carried interest rules are fairly small potatoes, aren’t they? Like one or two billion a year. Their effect would be purely symbolic.
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If they are even effective. Here’s the road map for getting around it:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46120273/How_to_Dodge_a_Carried_Interest_Tax_Hike
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any recommendations for a NYC steakhouse?
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any recommendations for a NYC steakhouse?
Try Peter Lugar’s in Brooklyn. The atmosphere is beer hallish but it is the best porterhouse in the world. Cash only.
In Times Square go to Frankie and Johnny’s. It’s a former speak-easy with many of the original waiters judging by their age.
For a traditional steakhouse, Sparks is excellent.
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nova:
any recommendations for a NYC steakhouse?
Peter Lugars is an experience, but a pain in the ass to get to, as is the no credit card policy.
Smith & Wollensky’s is excellent and very traditional…I will be there tomorrow night.
Spark’s, as yello says, is always excellent, and is also the spot where Paul Castellano got gunned down by John Gotti.
I would also recommend Bobby Vann’s.
Smith & Wollensky’s, B Vann’s, and Sparks are all in midtown within a few blocks of each other.
Are you going to be in NYC? I’ll buy you a drink if you are.
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Thanks for the recommendations. Scott — i’ll email you. I’ve heard good things about Peter Lugar’s, but not sure about the WAF — wife acceptance factor.
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When are you going?
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jnc — Thursday-sunday
figure congress can do nothing with or without me for a few days.
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NoVA – when I have visited the UK I have noted the visible presence of docs from the subcontinent in their PHS. I believe one issue that overwhelms the others on cost control in health care is that we have an increasing shortage of doctors, and of allied professionals, as well. No matter how we pay for medical care, shortages of providers will raise the price, inevitably.
So set aside the multiple silos, the costly lingering deaths, the failure of information – for a minute – and just concentrate on the shortage with me. Could we have a quick fix to the numbers problem, like the UK’s wholesale importation of Indian and Pakistani Docs?
Think of this as part of our immigration overhaul!
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Mark:
Could we have a quick fix to the numbers problem, like the UK’s wholesale importation of Indian and Pakistani Docs?
This reminded me of an old BBC article from a few years ago. You just can’t win.
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Mark:
If there is such a high demand for doctors (and surely there is), why is it that we have an increasing shortage of them?
edit: To make my question more specific, why aren’t the ordinary market forces, which would generally result in resources getting directed to where the demand is, working as they normally do?
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Part of the problem with foreign born doctors is the language barrier. Sick people tend to be cranky and don’t like doctors they can’t understand. Similar to the complaints engineering students have with all the grad students assigned to teach the entry level classes.
And if their training was outside the US their bedside manner tends to be more authoritarian as well which puts off many patients. Since many immigrant parents of south Asia push medicine as a career path, this prejudice carries over to US born and trained medical professionals of non-European descent even if these people are as ‘American’ as I am, if not more so.
As for brain drain, the Philippines, which like India has a large English speaking population, is known for exporting nurses and teachers. Inner city school districts have taken some flak for trying to fill teaching slots with green cards when in fact these positions are tough to fill.
The AMA may be finding itself outflanked by alternative medicines. The son-in-law of a friend is training in osteopathic medicine as part of a military enlistment. These doctors have full prescription writing privileges and are being used by the military in place traditional doctors.
The sitcom The Mindy Project features a US born Indian-American ob/gyn who has frequent run-ins (where hilarity often ensues) with the midwifery practice in her medical office building.
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YJ – my medicare doc is an osteopath. In TX, osteopaths are only limited wrt surgery. However, we train far fewer osteopaths than MDs. Go figure.
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Scott – I am tempted to supply an answer, but I demand that NoVA, who probably knows the answer, take this one.
George, Mike, and Kelley also know the area better than I do.
I have no reticence or shortage of theories to go with my shortage of information, of course.
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Krugman’s argument on Japan as not being an example of the failure of stimulus.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/05/the-japan-story/
My own take is that his argument is based on assuming away the actual conditions in Japan which has limited value as a guide to real world policy.
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JNC, I agree with part of PK’s analysis: the Japanese demographics. I do not believe his favored policies would surmount that problem, however.
By analogy, I think this immigration debate is a long time coming, and if we could just get them to jettison family reunification outside the nuclear unit for bringing in those who satisfy our human capital needs: the smart, the hard working, and the young – we will do more for our economy than fiscal and monetary policy together.
Perhaps an exaggeration, but you know what I mean.
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Mark — I don’t follow that to closely, but it’s an idea that’s been kicked around. AHA supported a bill that would reform the J-1 program to make it permanent.
http://www.ama-assn.org/amednews/2012/10/01/prse1003.htm
I think it’s the only quick fix available. training a new doc takes a long time and nobody wants primary care anymore. I have a friend who does primary care who wants to quit — and will as soon as she pays off her loans. she’d rather do charity work in Africa than treat Medicare patients and deal with 1) boring cases and 2) the paperwork. she’s my age — and she’s not alone. we’ve got a serious problem here. not only are the vast majority of docs nearing retirement, their replacements are pissed and pursuing other options.
I think another solution to the shortage is a revision of the scope of practice laws and the related physician supervision requirements. Let the NPPs practice to their full potential. same with PAs.
One of the problems with importing foreign docs is problems with patient acceptance. they want the “american” doc, not the import. I’ve seen that first hand in EMT world.
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I like Peter Lugers or Bobby Van’s (which is Son of Luger). Always liked Old Homestead as well since I lived downtown.
I think Sparks is overrated.
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Scott, admit it, you really think Outbacks has the best steak. “I’m just asking for a little more honesty.”
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McWing:
You know me better than I know myself!
But it’s not the Outback. It’s that paradise of cafeteria-style eating from my childhood, the Ponderosa Steakhouse. Unfortunately for Nova, they are all upstate…the only one in NYC has closed. You folks down in the Lone Star state haven’t had a steak until you’ve had one at a Ponderosa.
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Mark, wouldn’t we end up driving up salaries on the import MD’s since we’d be competing with the UK’s NHS? Plus, the UK has free healthcare, so a good near east import would naturally gravitate to paradise, no? Still same problem. Plus, liscensing is a state issue, not Federal, so it would require each states Leg. to act to “liberalize” their laws. That’s a tall order. Finally, not so sure having free standing PA’s is such a good thing.
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OT to Michi: see http://corporate.cqrollcall.com/content/396/en/Knowlegis
this also runs off my iphone. So I can write to “republican health LAs from Utah” and it will spit out a customized letter. and the key is that this system is on the “clear” house and senate lists, so it won’t get caught in the spam filter. it will also track who opens it, if they responded, etc. it schedules appointments, etc.
so i have names, phone numbers, and email for EVERY congressional staffer. house, senate, committee, at my fingertips 24/7
i have no idea what the firm pays.
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That’s kinda scary, NoVA!
BTW, starting to get some feelers from DC and Baltimore. We’ll see. . .
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yep. who is your member of congress?
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In AZ it was Sizzler (God, I coved that place) and Bonanza. In Houstoned it’s Golden Corral. All you can eat paradise!
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If it’s buffet and gluttony you’re after, head to western PA and find an Eat ‘N Park.
They are currently celebrating National Pie Month.
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For reasons that relate to a date in the summer of 1963, this has always been my favorite restaurant in NYC.
http://www.marchirestaurant.com/
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Bonanza is the one from my childhood. My parents always claimed they put MSG on the steaks to make them taste so good.
I’m tied up this weekend, but otherwise it would be worth it to have the libertarian wing of ATiM meet up in New York for steak.
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jnc:
I’m tied up this weekend, but otherwise it would be worth it to have the libertarian wing of ATiM meet up in New York for steak.
Pick a weekend, I’ll be there.
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NoVA:
who is your member of congress?
I dunno–the guy I didn’t vote for. 🙂 I made a fool’s vote for the Democrat in my new district, knowing that it didn’t have a snowball’s chance. All I know is that he’s a full-blooded Tea Partier.
UT got redistricted for this election and it disenfranchised the entire urban Wasatch Front. But I’m not bitter about that. . .
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the libertarian wing of ATiM
Hey!!!!!
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NoVA and JNC’s Libertarian night out.
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“markinaustin, on February 5, 2013 at 11:44 am said:
By analogy, I think this immigration debate is a long time coming, and if we could just get them to jettison family reunification outside the nuclear unit for bringing in those who satisfy our human capital needs: the smart, the hard working, and the young – we will do more for our economy than fiscal and monetary policy together.”
Mark, do you recall (or better yet have some good stories about tangential involvement in) Ted Kennedy’s immigration “reform” in the 1960’s which is what resulted in the current prioritization?
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/0828/kennedy-and-immigration-he-changed-the-face-of-america
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JNC, I had no tangential involvement in the mid 60s reform – I was still in LS until spring ’67. I don’t even remember what I thought about it at the time – I had signed up for Navy OCS and took a job as a prosecutor with the understanding I would be called up in early ’68. I hoped to be a JAG. I vaguely remember wondering why we were tinkering with immigration during a war.
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“Michigoose, on February 5, 2013 at 1:23 pm said:
the libertarian wing of ATiM
Hey!!!!!”
Sorry, how about the cat food commission sub section of the libertarian wing?
When are you road tripping to DC?
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Worth noting. I’m shocked, shocked, that the CBO underestimated this in the original scoring:
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But CBO says JNC’s target is in sight!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/deficits-will-fall-to-less-than-1-trillion-in-2013-cbo-reports/2013/02/05/ec964f76-6fbd-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_story.html?wpisrc=nl_pmpolitics
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nova/Mark:
Your discussion on health care reminded me of this article in the local paper.
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Mike and George and NoVA, ultimately the stranglehold of the more recalcitrant state MAs can be broken by state leges.
That political reality depends on the most powerful of all lobbies at the state level – the insurance industry.
Do you agree, NoVA?
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When are you road tripping to DC?
As soon as I get an interview or two lined up in the area.
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Best steaks in DC — arent’ in DC. Ray’s the Steaks in Arlington.
But, they don’t take reservations. which drives me insane. I don’t have 2 hours to wait.
So it’s Charlie Palmer on the Hill instead.
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Scott, admit it, you really think Outbacks has the best steak.
If that was what you were going for, there’s alway’s Tad’s Broiled Steaks in Times Square.
In the Carolinas there used to a chain called Quincy’s which gave Ponderosa/Sizzler a run for the money.
NoVa,
Ray’s the Classics in Silver Spring does take reservations if that’s the hang-up. I’m still a little offput by his 90 minutes per seating policy.
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forgot about the seating policy. good to know that the other one takes reservations.
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Smokin’ a bowl before the buffet feast used to help on the flavor front.
So I’ve been told.
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I disagree Mark. The AMA is a powerful guild.
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What interest does that guild have in controlling costs? A better argument is that American MD’s are overtrained. Cut length of Med school by a third and intern/Residency by 2/3. Will quality suffer? Yes, but there will be more access. Also, would help to lower standards to qualify as a credentialed med school.
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I tend to side with Troll on this one. with the caveat of all bets are off once the wheels fall off the ACA. I think we’re going to have access problems and I really don’t know how that will get resolved.
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Troll:
A better argument is that American MD’s are overtrained.
Or maybe too many specialists and not enough GPs/PCPs.
Urgent care clinics are popping up all over the place here. I’m interested to see how Walgreen’s does with their ACO.
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There is no money in Primary care. No decent paying procedure codes. It’s a dead end profession.
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“markinaustin, on February 5, 2013 at 2:46 pm said:
But CBO says JNC’s target is in sight!”
Provided that current law, aka the sequester, actually takes effect.
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it would be worth it to have the libertarian wing of ATiM meet up in New York for steak.
Or a beer at least… Next time you want to do that count me in..
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I haven’t seen a study equating conservative political views with a mental illness in a couple of months. We’re due I think.
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NoVa,
I took my wife to DC Coast tonight and even for Restaurant Week it was full of expense account types. Is it a big K Street power place? If not which ones are?
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Went to a Branford Marsalis concert tonight–wow! He just keeps getting better and better. . .
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Did his band play any of the polyrhythmic stuff he has been messing with? I found it uncomfortable. But he is a master on his instrument, no doubt.
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Yellow — I’d say DC Coast is one. Tosca over by Metro Center is another. Charlie Palmer on Hill. The Source in the Newsuem — I saw Pelosi there once. The Palm is a big one. Capital Grill at Penn and 6th. Think good food that isn’t adventurous — at least when you’re entertaining clients. As good as it might be, I’m not taking clients to Rasika.
.
Did you like DC Coast? — i’ve never had a bad meal there, but I’ve heard it’s slipped a bit. I like restaurant week, but at the same time, I don’t like the menu restrictions.
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I liked DC Coast a lot. I go to a happy hour group at McCormick and Schmick’s more or less across the street and their location in Baltimore is one of my favorite seafood restaurants but I had never tried DC Coast.
I did like that all the entrees on the full menu were available for Restaurant Week. The only exception was that the Chinese Grilled Lobster was a $9 premium which my wife ordered anyways because she’s high maintenance and according to FourSquare it’s their signature dish. And it was well worth it.
For appetizers they only offered soups and salads so I got the Caesar salad ready to be disappointed but it was excellent. Whole romaine leafs and huge slices of anchovies. The cocktails were also superb.
I’m not sure how much the desserts were being held back because we didn’t see the regular menu but both were fine. Mine reminded me of my grandmother’s butterscotch pudding but with more flavor notes. My wife said her bread pudding had plenty of liquor but wasn’t as good as the one at Bouchon in Vegas. I told her she has become pretty damn jaded.
Last week we had gone to the new Wit and Wisdom in Inner Harbor East for Baltimore DC Restaurant Week and their very limited selection was awful with only a choice of two entrees, neither from the regular menu. My wife ended up ordering ala carte and the bill came to more than DC Coast for worse food.
As a splurge recently we did the tasting menu at The Source and it was awesome. The dumpling course was so good we now have to go back just for the dim sum brunch someday.
Charlie Palmer is very good. We took our son there once for a special treat and I had the Grand Marnier flight with dessert and made him drive home.
Capitol Grille is my favorite of the steakhouse chains, much better than Morton’s or Ruth Chris. I’ve been there a couple of time because it’s so close to the Newseum. And their lobster mac-and-cheese is to die for.
I have never been is The Palm just because it seems like such a cliche power broker place, but I may have to give in some day just to see what the fuss is about.
I have to put Rasika on my to-do list as well.
Bon Appétit!
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honestly, don’t go for the Palm for anything else than people watching. If you want a steak, stick with Palmer or Capitol Grille.
love Bouchon and it’s zinc bar in Vegas. best steak I’ve ever had was at Cut in the Palazzo.
The place that i really want to try is try is Little Serow. but no reservations — fixed menu, walk in only. it’s basically 2 seatings a night. http://www.littleserow.com/info.html
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Little Serow sounds amazing, but no reservations for a place that small makes it a gamble to plan a whole trip into DC for. They have snakehead on the menu this week.
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Scott:
why aren’t the ordinary market forces, which would generally result in resources getting directed to where the demand is, working as they normally do?
Troll has answered that question to an extent:
“There is no money in Primary care. No decent paying procedure codes. It’s a dead end profession.”
MDs graduate with $100K+ in loan debt. After a few years as a resident and/or fellow (making $40K), they want to get paid.
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Mike:
MDs graduate with $100K+ in loan debt. After a few years as a resident and/or fellow (making $40K), they want to get paid.
Why can’t they get paid? Demand is generally measured by a willingness to pay. So if there is overwhelming demand (willingness to pay more), I would think they could get paid well. Why can’t they?
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more on doc shortage. i’ll be back this afternoon
http://www.ama-assn.org/amednews/2012/10/08/prl11008.htm
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Scott:
Why can’t they?
“No decent paying procedure codes.”
It is not a simple supply/demand curve. Different procedures are paid out differently.
PCPs do average ~$150K/yr, so it isn’t like they aren’t paid well relative to the general population. But what they get paid is regulated to an extent by what the insurance company actuaries think they should get paid.
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Mike:
But what they get paid is regulated to an extent by what the insurance company actuaries think they should get paid.
So if PCP’s were paid directly by patients themselves, then things would be better, no? Doctors could charge what they think their services are worth, and patients would pay them if indeed their services were worth the charge. Supply and demand would find an equilibrium.
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Scott:
if PCP’s were paid directly by patients themselves, then things would be better, no?
I don’t know about better, but that might solve the doc shortage. Fewer people would go to the doctor because it would be too expensive, so demand would go down. And if all docs were paid out of pocket, we wouldn’t be able to afford the extraordinary end-of-life spending that we currently have. So, that would decrease our health care expenditures as a nation. Maybe that would drive specialists back to general practice. But, overall, we would be less healthy as a nation and, well, the poor people would die quicker. And the pharmaceutical companies would take a big hit.
Or are you thinking about maintaining health insurance somehow?
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Mike:
I don’t know about better, but that might solve the doc shortage.
Yes, that is what I meant by better. If the problem is defined as a shortage, then an end to the shortage is, presumably, “better”.
nd if all docs were paid out of pocket, we wouldn’t be able to afford the extraordinary end-of-life spending that we currently have.
I was specifically talking about PCPs, which, if I understand the term correctly, would not include end-of-life spending, or at least the kind associated with huge costs.
Basically I think a huge problem is that “insurance” has ceased to be actual insurance. And as essentially an annual, third-party pay-one-price-for-everything health plan it is both 1) guaranteed to drive up costs and as a result 2) guaranteed to drive down the wages of PCP’s as insurance companies try to control those costs.
If health insurance was purchased and used as actual insurance, ie as protection against individually unpredictable and catastrophic costs, then it would be a lot cheaper, and PCP’s could negotiate directly with the buyers of their services rather than being dictated to by insurance companies and/or the government.
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real quick — that’s what’s happening in boutique care. cash only, better care, more $$ for docs. great if you can afford it.
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