Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1375.3 | 4.4 | 0.32% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2484.9 | -8.2 | -0.33% |
| Oil (WTI) | 85.16 | -0.2 | -0.26% |
| LIBOR | 0.31 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.07 | -0.017 | -0.02% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.62% | 0.02% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 192.4 | -0.5 |
Markets are higher this morning after a good earnings report out of Cisco and a benign reading on wholesale-level inflation. Shades of the late 90s. Retail sales disappointed, but they were affected by Sandy so the market is dismissing the numbers. Later today, we will get the minutes of the FOMC meeting.
Speaking of Sandy, she may become the excuse du jour for companies that miss their quarter. Be advised.
Obama has put out his plan for the fiscal cliff. It raises double the amount of revenue that was proposed during the deal with Boehner two years ago and involves more than simply letting rates go up for those making over $250k – it includes limitations on deductions and a surtax for incomes over $1 million. Geithner has dismissed the Republican plan to leave rates the same and cap deductions. So that is the bid / ask spread at the moment.
I have heard recent estimates that if we go over the fiscal cliff completely, the economy will contract 1% in Q1. If we raise taxes on the rich, we will have GDP around 1%, but that number was based on the going back to the old rates, not the additional stuff. So it would probably be lower. Sounds like flat GDP in early 2013 is a possibility. The FOMC today may provide further guidance re Treasury purchases. I would not want to be leaning short Treasuries at the moment.
Blackstone sees a two year window to buy foreclosed properties at a discount. They forecast the median existing home price to increase 6% this year, 5% in 2013 and similar gains in 2014. If homebuilding does not accelerate, they forecast even bigger gains. I keep coming back to the idea that the remaining shadow inventory is largely picked over, and some of it (foreclosures in Harrisburg, Detroit and Stockton) simply aren’t going to sell. Meanwhile, Buffet continues to be positive on housing and has been increasing his exposure. Ara Hovnanian isn’t as sanguine.
Freddie Mac reported that 29% of refis in 3Q involved a term shortening as people refi from a 30 year fixed to a 15 year fixed. During the quarter, the 30 year fixed rate averaged 3.55%, while the 15 year averaged 2.84%.
Will investors do the heavy lifting of ending TBTF? (too big to fail) Trillium and AFSCME have sent a proposal to Citi encouraging them to split up. While it is easy to dismiss this as based on politics (Trillium is representing the Benedictine Sisters and has a .01% stake, and AFSCME is a union), it is true that Citi (and others) are trading at a discount to their peers and are exhibiting the classic holding company discount. Could we see Citi spin off Salomon Brothers? Bank of America spin off Merrill? JPM spin off Chase?
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Sorry to make the very first comment so wildly OT, Brent, but. . .
Hey, Mike–what’s this that I hear the Marlins are playing in Toronto now?!?? 🙂
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Since we’re already OT, I won’t apologize [grinning].
Brent, thanks for adding your chili recipe. I am intrigued by it because I do not think of allspice, cinnamon and bay leaves in chili. I’m going to have to give it a try!
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More OT (this about abortion):
What Happens to Women Denied Abortions.
I may be late to the game, but apparently this is the first scientific study to follow what happened to women who were denied abortions vs. those that were not (denial usually being an issue of what point the woman was in her pregnancy when she sought the abortion).
Apparently, no mental health issues for women who receive abortions versus those who don’t, but the women who are denied abortions are economically disadvantaged, all other things remaining equal, in comparison to the women who received the abortions they sought.
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Michi:
It’s not like they were playing much in Miami anyways. Beinfest probably said to himself, “Hell, I can field a team that loses 90+ games for 10% of what it cost us last year.”
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Kevin:
Interesting article! Thanks for linking it, and the findings were pretty much in line with what I would have guessed. I thought this was the saddest part:
And it makes me wonder about the kids in those situations.
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we had a section in EMT class about recognizing signs of abuse, particularly in kids. Stuff you would never think of and would churn your stomach.
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@Michigoose: “And it makes me wonder about the kids in those situations.”
I think it’s probably not positive. One would assume that from Steve Levitt’s abortion/crime theory (that crime dropped after abortion was legalized), but that seems not to be the case, at least not demonstrably so.
However, with the domestic violence exception (which could be correlated to the women who would tend to wait to decide on their abortion until it was too late, and thus they would be denied) it seems that it is likely that outcomes are a wash. Taken collectively, legalized abortion does not seem to negative impact those who receive them, nor meaningful impact the crime rate.
Still, nothing can eliminate the fact that raising a well-adjusted, well-educated child is hard work that requires an involved parent and plenty of money. Likely those women who get abortions end up better off in some respect, and leaves them with more options, as raising children is hard and expensive work. The children they would have had, but did not, would likely have had very hard and potentially abusive upbringings. This may or may not be a useful moral justification for legalized abortion, but it seems difficult to argue otherwise.
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NoVA:
Since I can’t even read news stories about puppy mills it’s probably better that I don’t know!
BTW: think the Irish are going to manage a perfect season? As far as I can see the only thing holding them back is USC.
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That USC game is always a wildcard. I think they pull it off. The Irish D has been really good.
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Rep. Paul’s last floor speech.
http://www.campaignforliberty.org/national-blog/transcript-of-farewell-address/
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Speaking of abortion, this article was in the New York Times today. An example (I think) of the unintended consequences of not having a uniform nationwide policy.
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Mark:
Kansas, Tennessee (Kevin!!) and Georgia have just out crazied Texas.
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Michigoose: Most of the people who believe that sort of stuff (sad to say) are the same folks who voted for Ron Paul and Gary Johnson (we’re in good company!). Given that we clearly know better, and we voted for Gary Johnson, too, and he still only got a fraction of the vote, I think these people are definitely on the fringes. Ain’t many of them, but they sure are odd.
There are certain folks who are geared to believe that everything is a conspiracy: it’s just how they are wired. They may have some mainstream political positions, but everything is a conspiracy, whether it’s Obama using NLP to hypnotize audiences who otherwise wouldn’t agree with him (then how is it all the Republicans remain unhypnotized?), or the Koch brothers running everything behind the scenes (and fixing the elections, just apparently not well enough), they will always see a conspiracy behind every political group, military action, or individual they do not like.
That these folks get elected to office, and then introduce this sort of stuff, is fascinating. I haven’t been listening to it recently, but I’ve been a fan of No Agenda!, with John C. Dvorak and Adam Curry (former MTV VJ!) for a long time. They are constantly talking conspiracy (and there’s a lot more to it than Obama and other political leaders using Cold War mind control—earthquake machines and weather machines and UFO visitations and the Bilderberg’s and almost everybody in the political sphere is a shill in on the conspiracy).
Here’s the thing: it’s easy to dismiss the description of Obama as using Cold War mind control techniques, as presented in Mother Jones (you’d love the Two Obama’s theory of No Agenda!–literally, there are two different people who play the role of Obama, which also explains the real conspiracy about his birth certificate: it’s all hushed up, because there are two of him, although it remains possible one is actually a clone).
If you listen to a couple of hundred hours of No Agenda!, it actually begins to make sense. Not that I necessarily believe more than a tiny fraction of it, but it has a strong internal logic that it becomes much easier to see how some folks find the conspiracies compelling. Even the craziest conspiracies tend to fit a lot of existing facts, accurately predict what people will say and do in the political sphere in the future, and (as a bonus) give the believer a special insight that means they are awake, and in the know, compared to all the sleeping sheeple who believe the pabulum spoonfed them by MSNBC, CNN, and Fox.
Also, these conspiracy theories don’t exist in a vacuum. It’s one thing to rail on Agenda 21 (and doesn’t that just sound conspiratorial?) or talk about earthquake machines or weather control, but for the conspiracy community, these things are included among hundreds and even thousands of conspiracy theories that are much more believable, much more credible, and even a few that might actually be true (conspiracy theorists are like stopped clock: even they manage to be right twice a day).
It’s too much of an investment to challenge anyone to make, but I guarantee you if you put in 100 hours of listening to No Agenda!, somewhere in there even you would find a point where you find yourself agreeing that a given conspiracy theory is the best explanation, and also wondering why some of the news articles or sound bites that you hear don’t get any wider play. Could it be . . . a conspiracy?
Just sayin’. I know the Mind Control thing is crazy, but I can tell you none of those folks are operating in a vacuum. There is a huge and involved belief system they are steeped in, one where Agenda 21 and government mind control are just a small part.
Also, if these folks keep at it, they may not be Republicans for much longer. Because, of course, the GOP is as much a part of the conspiracy as the Democrats are. With the exception of Ron Paul.
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