Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1380.2 | 4.5 | 0.33% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2477.4 | -2.4 | -0.10% |
| Oil (WTI) | 85.55 | -0.5 | -0.60% |
| LIBOR | 0.31 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.97 | -0.055 | -0.07% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.61% | 0.00% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 192.8 | 0.3 |
Stock markets are higher this morning after last week’s post-election sell-off. Bonds are closed for Veteran’s Day. The government also has the day off, so there are is no major economic news.
Post election, all eyes turn to the fiscal cliff. There appears to be a growing consensus that we can leave rates unchanged for the top and limit deductions. Partisan posturing and political jockeying will make the markets a miserable place for the next couple of months. Capital gains and dividends remain a wild card. The obamacare surtax will happen regardless, so financial income is taking a hit right off the bat.
The Basel III requirements scheduled to take effect on Jan 1 have been pushed back to some time in the future. SIFMA and the MBA agree with the decision.
So how will the election affect the markets and real estate? I suspect FHFA Chairman DeMarco will be out of a job, which will pave the way for principal reductions on F&F/Ginnie loans. If they don’t think this through, they could face a deluge of homeowners suddenly finding themselves “unable” to make their mortgage payment.
Geithner is out for obama II, and the favorite for replacement seems to be Jack Lew. Lew is a “middle of the road” candidate that has already been unanimously confirmed by the Senate in 2010 for the OMB job.
If we go over the fiscal cliff, we will undoubtedly have a 1H recession, which could result in a 1.25% 10-year. Which means the refi boom will continue to have legs. If FHFA starts modding underwater loans to LTVs of 1.0, we should see some refi activity, especially in the FHA space. That said, if CFPB doesn’t come out with a bright line definition of a QM, refinancing these folks may prove to be difficult.
Regarding a 1H recession, earnings this quarter were not great, and Sandy will probably lop 1% to 1.5% of of 4Q GDP. Taxes are going up, so we should start handicapping a 1H recession. Will it affect housing? My sense is no, the bottom is in, and the recession will be felt more in cap goods / the energy patch than in housing. JP Morgan downgraded CAT this morning based on the expected negative impact the election will have on energy and mining.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
“The Basel III requirements scheduled to take effect on Jan 1 have been pushed back to some time in the future. SIFMA and the MBA agree with the decision.”
I love it when the first response to a crisis or potential disruption from new regulations is to suspend the regulations that were supposedly critical. See also Mark to Market.
This quote seems apt:
“So how will the election affect the markets and real estate? I suspect FHFA Chairman DeMarco will be out of a job, which will pave the way for principal reductions on F&F/Ginnie loans. If they don’t think this through, they could face a deluge of homeowners suddenly finding themselves “unable” to make their mortgage payment.”
Count on it. The important thing is to successfully transfer the losses to the taxpayer.
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Regarding the likelihood of a 1h recession, do you see the consumer debt deleveraging as pretty much complete, and thus have a reason to be optimistic on holiday retail sales?
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The IEA thinks the US will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020 and energy independent by 2030.
Huh. I just hope we get better at fracking before we contaminate all our groundwater trying to get that oil out.
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Speaking of dogs, my sons spent half an hour chasing a Havanese (Cuban for furball) around at the park. With the owner’s approval I should note. Afterwards, Primo said for the first time that he wants a dog.
We’d talked about getting a Boston Terrier in the past. A breeder/kennel near us has several very cute puppies available right now. We’ve spent awhile tossing around names. I’m firmly of the view that a short name that starts with a hard consonant is best as the dog can understand it more easily.
Copley – Naming a Boston Terrier for an iconic place in Boston seems a natch. It also brings back fond memories of Tealuxe, where we went while dating and engaged.
Pippin – Ages ago, I’d thought of naming a small dog after hobbits. Pippin fits all the criteria. Bilbo is nice too, but sounds like more of a boy’s name. The puppies that we’re considering are bitches.
Tica or Tico – Play up the Costa Rica connection.
Any thoughts?
BB
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Keltic. Keegan. Boston. Geraghty. Dugan. Digger. Paddy. Dingleberry. Blake. Blackie. Brig. Bart. Teddy or Teddi.
Jodie. Pandora. Domingo. Donde. Diego. Pepe. Poppie. Gigabit. Kendall. Bird. McHale.
Stay away from Rice, Yastrzemski, Orr, and Russell.
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Sorry about that. I thought I was on the Chili thread, where Okie or Goose’s dog sitting experience was mentioned.
Incidentally, I just heard another great name for a Boston Terrier: Guinness.
BB
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Just one thought, FB — please consider rescue.
A quick search shows 46 Boston Terriers of various ages within 100 miles of
Alexandria, VA.
http://www.petfinder.com/pet-search?animal_type=Dog&pet_breed=Boston+Terrier&location=22302&distance=100
we renamed each of our rescue blueticks. no idea what their names were, but it took about 2 days for them to figure it out.
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FB:
Since this is ostensibly a political site: Kennedy. Or Mitt (MIT).
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I will never own an animal that I don’t get from a rescue. I have a cat that was feral that a family friend gave me, and aside from his tendency to eat anything that is or closely resembles a plant, he is a great cat (His name is Mewsolini, but he goes by Mew). My wife owned 2 dachshunds from a breeder before we met, but we rescued a third who has turned into a bottomless pit of vet bills and love and affection. He’s a great dog.
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BTW, Brent–want to go drop your recipe into the chili post?
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Goose, I will. We still don’t have phone / internet at home yet, and I keep forgetting to bring it into work.
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Goose, I just found it in an old email. It is in the post now.
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