Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktI’m going to go ahead and put this post up tonight, since I’m going to go vote before work tomorrow and don’t know when I’ll be able to get it up. Do any of you have big plans for the morrow? After I reminded her that tomorrow is Election Day my boss moved our staff meeting back to 10:00 and told everybody to go vote before coming in to work; I don’t anticipate huge lines here (voter turnout in UT is abysmally low), but you never know. Then tomorrow evening I’m going to some friends’ house to watch the returns with them and a couple of other folks. Thanks to you guys, I’ve become the Recognized Expert among my friends on all things political. . . hoot!
Remember–vote early and often!
Filed under: 2012, Elections, Open Thread |
All Things in Moderation 
At work, the head of HR sent a reminder to vote, which I don’t recall getting from prior employers. Beth and I will take the kids with us to vote when the polls open at 7, then head to work. Whether we can make it back for additional voting will depend on the workload…
LikeLike
Voting at 7 followed by gym immediately b/c I vote at the Y. Or workout first. If I workout first, gotta go in 10 min.
LikeLike
We’re having a friend over for dinner. I was going to be making sushi, but just had a message from my vendor asking to confirm delivery for tomorrow. Unfortunately, I got it after arriving home from a visit to family. So, I guess it’ll be a sushi celebration (or wake) on Wednesday.
Maybe it’s time to try out my lobster mac and cheese idea.
BB
LikeLike
Will vote this morning. I’ve got a good feeling: I think Gary Johnson just might crack 5%. Yay, Gary!
LikeLike
Just drove by my voting center. Long line. Will try to get back over here at lunch to cast my vote, even though I can pretty much predict the results. Memphis and Nashville and Knoxville will all go Democrat; Tennessee overall will go for Romney.
LikeLike
I found out last night from my mom that I’m still on the voter rolls in my home precinct in IL. Damn! I really could have voted twice …
Even with 38% early votes in FL, there are apparently long freaking lines already.
LikeLike
Well, I’ve done my little bit for democracy!
I don’t know why, since my vote really doesn’t count for anything in Utah, but it always makes me feel better to have voted. Plus there’s the cool sticker.
P.S. Kevin–I voted for Johnson
LikeLike
I voted for Johnson and two more Ls down ballot. I also voted for one G down ballot! I voted for a G for RR Commissioner. Both major parties always put O&G industry folks on the RRC ballot. Good to have a choice who was not on the payroll, even though I probably would wonder what I did if he got elected, of which there is no chance.
One of the down ballot Ls I voted for was running for TX S.Ct. and had been an excellent trial judge in a neighboring county.
R and I were 67-68 in line at 7 AM. Took 45 minutes to run us through. Very long ballot. Longer line than in 2008 but in 2008 52% of TC voted early and this time only 37% voted early. That strikes me as the most plausible explanation for heavier turnout on ED.
One confusing pair of contradictory propositions appeared and voting for both nullified your vote for either, in effect. Austin is the largest city in America with an at-large city council. Having never had a VRA problem at large – that is, Tejanos and blacks have been well represented on the council and in city govt since 1966 – there was no external pressure on Austin to go to a ward system. However, in recent years, as Austin has doubled and redoubled in population, more people live more than 5 mi. from downtown than within 5 mi of downtown by at least a 3-1 margin. Yet the council continues to be dominated by persons who live within 5 mi. of City Hall. The neighborhoods put a proposition on the ballot to have 10 geographical wards and a city wide mayor. The Council put on an alternative proposition to have 8 geographical wards and 3 city wide councilpersons, plus a citywide mayor. Vote for both and they both fail.
LikeLike
Mike:
Damn! I really could have voted twice
If I weren’t so sure that IL would go for Obama I’d buy you a plane ticket! 🙂 (How long has it been since you voted in IL, anyway??)
LikeLike
I’m going to call it Obama – 294; Romney – 244. A bare majority of the popular vote. Obama 50.3%; Romney 48.9%.
Obama’s firewall holds (IA, WI, OH, MI, PA). He also takes Virginia and New Hampshire. Romney takes away North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado.
Senate composition is unchanged with King replacing Lieberman as an independent caucusing with the Democrats.
Democrats gain fewer than 10 seats in the House and Pelosi resigns as Minority Leader.
Incidentally, I caught Dick Morris on Fox News yesterday. He was effectively predicting a 10 point Romney win. Quite entertaining to hear him to combine the numbers from each poll in the most advantageous way. Pew’s mix was wrong, but their number for likelihood to vote was correct.
BB
LikeLike
Enjoyed this: We The Sheeple, Freakonomics Podcast.
Love the beginning, overlapping Obama and Romney in a way that makes them sound like the same person.
Basically, it makes the case that politicians who can survive and excel in our political process are worthless. That’s why I’m voting for Johnson!
@Michigoose: you and me, Michi. That makes two. 🙂
LikeLike
Voted this morning. moderate line. about 30 mins.
johnson on the topline.
skipped the Senate race — I almost voted Allen b/c Kaine’s “i’m against it personally, but did nothing to stop it” on the death penalty sickens me. be a leader or STFU.
voted R in the House race, because of an experience years ago when the incumbent D (Connolly) was chairman of the county board of supervisons. he made a citizen look stupid during a public comment period re: a zoning issue. completely unnecessarily. the man just wanted to say his piece for 2 mins. no reason to embarrass him. but, connolly has to show how smart he was.
LikeLike
NoVA:
voted R in the House race, because of an experience years ago when the incumbent D (Connolly) was chairman of the county board of supervisons.
All politics is local, isn’t it? 🙂
Still sticking with your 315 EV for Romney prediction?
LikeLike
It’s depressing. It’s big district and it’s a lean D. Plenty of qualified, friendly people who share this guy’s politics. but it’s the jerk who holds office.
I’ll stick with the 315. See this — it’s the 1st of 5 scenarios. This one is the “Nate Silver is right” http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2486 and it goes through a couple of different outcomes. i’m somewhere in between the 4 and 5 option.
LikeLike
I voted this morning, and for the first time in my life experienced some minor inconvenience. I’ve lived at my current residence for 12 years with polling at an elementary school a few blocks from my house. First: got there about 7:00am this morning to find a sign on the door saying that voting had been moved to a church about a mile away. Not that big a deal for me, but why wasn’t this mentioned on news, etc. ahead of time? A voter relying on public transportation in this city would have a very big problem with this. Second: At the church polling site, there was a long line when I got there (I’ve never encountered a line longer than a few people at my regular polling site). I was in line about an hour when a poll worker finally started walking the line saying “if you’re in precinct xxx, go to the front; there is no line for precinct xxx.” I was in precinct xxx. Turns out there is a precinct with about 3,000 registered voters that normally votes at this location. My precinct has about 800 registered voters. There were no signs at all distinguishing the lines. When I got my ballot, they were not allowing people from my precinct to use the little cubicles to mark their ballots! I had to mark mine standing at the registration table, out in the middle of everybody. I don’t personally mind if somebody sees how I vote, but there are folks who do mind very much, and besides, it’s the principle.
Note: We mark paper ballots and then scan them into a machine to be counted. There is no confirmation record from the scan where one can ensure that the vote registered in the machine the same way it was marked on the ballot. I don’t know of any issues with machines here in the way that has been complained of in other states, but who would know to complain if there were an issue? Good grief, we’ve been to the moon, we can kill people with unmanned drones . . . but we can’t get the hang of accurate and credible voting machines???
I was pleased to see lots of kids with their parents. Good educational process IMO.
Kevin, michi and others: I would have voted for Johnson, but Obama and Romney were the only presidential candidates on the ballot in OK.
LikeLike
“I had to mark mine standing at the registration table, out in the middle of everybody. I don’t personally mind if somebody sees how I vote, but there are folks who do mind very much, and besides, it’s the principle.”
That’s BS.
“We mark paper ballots and then scan them into a machine to be counted. There is no confirmation record from the scan where one can ensure that the vote registered in the machine the same way it was marked on the ballot. ”
that’s how i voted. the line was longer for the touch screen. i assume because i voted Johnson the scanner was actually a paper shredder.
LikeLike
Okie, it is also surprising that precincts had such disparity in voter numbers. I agree that public voting is utter BS [nod to NoVA] and worth a complaint to the Justice Department if you think the OK SoS approves of the practice.
Our machine is different than others I have seen. No one has an issue with it, that I have heard or read. I do not know how our votes are backed up for verification purposes.
We were allowed County wide voting with our TDLs or VR cards. This has worked well in TC. The instant your ID is processed, the Clerk’s computer is notified, and you could not get to a second polling place fast enough to cheat.
LikeLike
@okiegirl: “Kevin, michi and others: I would have voted for Johnson, but Obama and Romney were the only presidential candidates on the ballot in OK.”
The duopoly of the Republican-Democrat collective is never going to let a serious 3rd party threat manifest. But I admire your desire to cast a protest vote with the two of us. That would have been 3 for Johnson. Almost a landslide.
LikeLike
Ooops. 4, including Mark. Though he will lose the race, clearly Johnson is winning a moral victory on ATiM.
LikeLike
And Novahockey. That would be 5 votes. None of the Above is clearly the rightful presidential victor in this election cycle!
LikeLike
I’ve got him winning NM on my map! and no, you can’t have what I’m smoking.
LikeLike
Kevin, we’re smart enough to object to the prospect of being put in military detention for nothing, or being droned. (I suspect at least 6 ATiM’ers would have voted Johnson if you include nova(?) and jnc(?).)
Edit: The Oklahoma Republican Party fought ferociously to keep Johnson off the ballot, but from what I know of the litigation it was the correct decision. Poor organization by Johnson campaign.
LikeLike
After the election, maybe we could get Johnson to put in a guest appearance on ATiM.
nova, you’re proving that smoking is bad for you in unsuspected ways. But your count does give me a smile, so thanks for that.
LikeLike
I’m in VA with JNC — Johnson is on the ballot here. along with the green party and constitution party.
he got my vote. and certain he’s getting JNCs
LikeLike
just got an email from my wife.
“i voted johnson — for the amendment to make eminent domain harder to use, and against the local bond issues, parks and libraries”
— she’s so hot.
LikeLike
@novahockey: Your wife is hot. Better keep a sharp eye on her, as other hot libertarian men are going to be going after her. 😉
That being said, first time I’ve been on PlumLine in months. The commenting system is vastly improved. Good for them.
The commenters . . . well, I’ll leave that for others to judge. 😉
LikeLike
Oklahoma has a state question on the ballot to add a new section to the State Constitution which I find puzzling. In employment, education and contracting, the measure disallows affirmative action programs. The puzzle is that to the best of my knowledge, we don’t have affirmative action anyway. Any thoughts on this? (BTW, this was originated in the legislature, not by citizen petition.)
LikeLike
OU used to save seats for native americans.
LikeLike
I’ll go for Obama and Kaine (planning to vote early afternoon), but am voting against Moran. 2010 was the only time I voted for him. He’s safe, but I dislike him.
The other down ballot that interests me is school board. We know Mike Brookbank when our twins (ours fraternal; his identical) were in preschool together. Retired military and knows what he’s doing. I’ll probably go with incumbents in Alexandria. That effectively gives us two Republicans on the council to keep ’em honest. One is a federal employee at USPTO, so she is required to not have a party identification as a candidate by law.
The anti-incumbent drive in Alexandria seems to be largely anti-development. I think they should do mixed use development with the waterfront, now that the area around the power plant is available. There’s also the west end, which got a huge new building at the Mark Center due to BRAC. People keep talking about all the additional traffic, but I don’t buy it. People who used to go to Pentagon City or Crystal City will still be driving I-395. We’ll get more from Maryland, but that’s not a choke point, and people coming from the south will get off earlier.
Plus, I figure it can’t hurt my property values to have a few thousand people who’d like to live close by.
BB
LikeLike
“Posted on November 5, 2012 by Michigoose
…
Thanks to you guys, I’ve become the Recognized Expert among my friends on all things political. . . ”
“Michigoose, on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 am said:
…
P.S. Kevin–I voted for Johnson”
Coincidence? I think NOT!
I voted this morning for Johnson of course. Had I thought about it, I would have ordered a couple of extra yard signs to put up at the entrance of the polling place. Would have been nice to see one Johnson sign amongst the numerous Romney & Obama signs.
I can see the undecided clueless voters reasoning process:
Well, I was going to vote for Obama, but Romney has six signs up and Obama only has five so that must mean something. I’m switching to Romney.
Also, a close female friend who is vehemently liberal begged me to not vote for Romney, Allen or Cantor, so I left the Senate and House races as blank. I almost wrote in Jim Webb for Senate.
LikeLike
Busy polling place in Mpls this AM. our district has high turnout & high dem support. We were 80th in line at 10 to 7. I voted at a table. There are about 15 booths for those who prefer privacy. Okie, we use optical scanners too, which were shown to be extremely reliable during the Coleman -Franken recount. Also, in the event of a.recount, there is a paper ballot to count, which is not true of many of the touchscreen/electronic machines. We may learn more about this in coming weeks if there’s an Ohio recount.
LikeLike
“okiegirl, on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 am said:
Kevin, michi and others: I would have voted for Johnson, but Obama and Romney were the only presidential candidates on the ballot in OK.”
Looks like OK and Michigan were the only two states that Johnson didn’t make the ballot:
http://www.lp.org/2012-ballot-access
LikeLike
Also, got to vote Yes on Amendment #1 in VA to basically roll back Kelo v New London.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/question-1-on-virginia-ballot-would-limit-governments-eminent-domain-powers-to-take-property/2012/11/06/af6e1c9a-27e8-11e2-ac64-5d52a2c5953e_story.html
LikeLike
Kevin, et. al,
Anyone know if Johnson was able to raise enough money to get the 1/2 hour TV spot on last night?
LikeLike
Re: Amendment 1, the local GOP sample ballot was a “vote yes” and the Dems was a “vote no”
LikeLike
Thanks to you guys, I’ve become the Recognized Expert among my friends on all things political. . . ”
Ditto here michi (and jnc) among my coworkers, who began seeking out my opinions months ago. They appreciate that this site has given me the ability to with some confidence give them a balanced response along the lines of: “As a screaming liberal, I think xxx. As I understand their positions, conservatives think yyy about it and libertarians think zzz about it.” Since it’s workplace, I was very careful to not present my opinions as correct, best, only, etc. My coworkers appreciated that.
bsimon: we use optical scanners too, which were shown to be extremely reliable during the Coleman -Franken recount. Also, in the event of a.recount, there is a paper ballot to count. Good to know the optical scanners were shown to be extremely reliable; I did not recall that. But my theoretical question is, how would one know if there were a malfunction if a recount is not involved? I suppose that question actually is a bit ridiculous given how monolithic my state apparently is now. I should stop looking for problems where there most likely are not any.
LikeLike
nova: Re: Amendment 1, the local GOP sample ballot was a “vote yes” and the Dems was a “vote no”.
That surprises me. I fully disagree with Kelo.
LikeLike
Okie: Here’s the Post editorial urging a No vote on Amendement 1. the jist is that it will cost taxpayers more for to acquire property. I say — don’t take what’s not yours.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/posts-endorsement-vote-no-on-ballot-question-1-in-va/2012/11/01/62636726-1c8e-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_story.html
LikeLike
“okiegirl, on November 6, 2012 at 10:32 am said: Edit Comment
nova: Re: Amendment 1, the local GOP sample ballot was a “vote yes” and the Dems was a “vote no”.
That surprises me. I fully disagree with Kelo.”
Kelo in many ways is insiders vs outsiders instead of left vs right, but the case was decided with the Supreme Court’s “liberals” in the majority. It’s generally considered favorable to activist government.
LikeLike
“okiegirl, on November 6, 2012 at 10:30 am said:
Thanks to you guys, I’ve become the Recognized Expert among my friends on all things political. . . ”
Ditto here michi (and jnc) among my coworkers, who began seeking out my opinions months ago. They appreciate that this site has given me the ability to with some confidence give them a balanced response along the lines of: “As a screaming liberal, I think xxx. As I understand their positions, conservatives think yyy about it and libertarians think zzz about it.” Since it’s workplace, I was very careful to not present my opinions as correct, best, only, etc. My coworkers appreciated that.”
On a side note, I think this makes it even sadder that lmsinca considers this project a failure and has ceased posting. Maybe she’ll reconsider.
LikeLike
On other news, this is worth noting:
LikeLike
Back to VA Amendment #1: So now I understand that it’s about the amount of compensation paid for seized property. If you support the amendment, do you do so because you think the increased cost will be a deterrent to gov seizing property? Am I missing something?
For the record, I do support eminent domain for fmv on a limited basis, which does not include for the purpose of economic development (hence my opposition to Kelo). I do support it for roads/highways.
LikeLike
I’ve never figured out why they even made touchscreens without a paper trail. Ours here in Utah have it off to the side (it looks like a cash register receipt printer) and contained within the machine. First you vote your ballot, then the touchscreen displays your votes, you press OK, the printer prints your vote, you press OK again and voila! You’ve voted.
I do have faith in these machines.
Seven Johnson votes (out of 10 of us so far). Landslide!!
LikeLike
mark: OU used to save seats for native americans.
Do you mean for admission to the university? (Or did you intend this for the college football thread?) I’ve been wondering about that. Don’t know about the Norman campus, but I do know my campus does not have affirmative action for admissions. I guess I’ve been assuming it was the same on the Norman campus re undergraduate admissions, but perhaps not.
LikeLike
I meant the University of Norman, the Land Thieves, Boomer Sooner. I have no idea if they still do that.
Probably not, from what you know.
Addendum: Google finds this re: the Dental School in OKC
http://www.ouhsc.edu/nace/main.html
I agree with you on Kelo. The truly public condemnation proceeding at FMV makes sense under the Constitution of the US and of every state. Condemning for a private use, however, which I think should not happen, ever, gives rise to the idea, conflated into statute, by some, that condemnation should be at the enhanced FMV attributed to the future for profit use. OTOH, I do not have a problem with a business recouping some measure of lost profits beyond the land value, as relocation is usually a bitch. I think I would have to read the current VA statute and the proposed one together before I voted.
In 1983, I was 1/3 owner of a building on Jones-Maltsberger in San Antonio with my client who used the building in commerce. How did I get to be 1/3 owner? Well, the building was worth about $200K. My clients were offered the building at $137K and were going to turn it down and I said I needed them to release me as their counsel and waive any conflict so that I could buy it. They said I could have a 1/3 interest in that case.
A developer was attempting to package 40A at J-M and Loop 410 that included our building. A year later he approached me to purchase the building from us. He offered $400K. I said $625K. He said “OK”. My partners bitched and said I should have said $750K, although they would have sold at $400K. The developer got all the buildings except the corner gasoline station. He finally paid $1.2M for it. My clients bitched some more. Then the developer went bankrupt, having paid too much for the totality of the property. Took an S&L down with him, of course.
That kind of story is why private developers pushed so hard to get states and cities to let them have the power of eminent domain so they could put together big projects that would “help the tax base”. Struggling cities in the 90s went for it. I wish Kelo had put a stop to it, rather than blessed it.
My clients are now 1] dead and 2] senile or they would still be bitching that I didn’t get $1.2M like the gas station.
LikeLike
@okiegirl: “I do support it for roads/highways.”
I also support it for roads/highways when all other options are explored and the necessity is clear. In such cases, 125% or 150% compensation seems reasonable, although a “skies the limit” compensation when it’s just about economic development (that is, rolling the dice and hoping a private developer will build something on the land that will create more tax revenue—that’s just reckless, and the compensation for seized property should reflect it).
LikeLike
@okiegirl: “Oklahoma has a state question on the ballot to add a new section to the State Constitution which I find puzzling. In employment, education and contracting, the measure disallows affirmative action programs. The puzzle is that to the best of my knowledge, we don’t have affirmative action anyway.”
None at all? This seems unlikely, but I suppose anything is possible. If true, then it’s on the ballot to get conservatives and right wingers out to the polls, even if they don’t love the candidates, in the hopes that they’ll vote a straight ‘R’ ticket in addition to making their protest vote against affirmative action.
That being said, I’m all for outlawing any discrimination based on race, for any reason.
LikeLike
Utah’s two constitutional amendments today were to (1) deposit a portion of the severance tax into the state’s permanent trust fund (as opposed to the general fund) and (2) to exempt military members’ real property from property taxes. I voted no on both.
LikeLike
Kevin, I think fmv is sufficient compensation. When I worked in the legal biz, for several years I worked representing the State in eminent domain issues. At least here, they will look for other routes/options if they cannot get the properties for well below fmv, screw the landowners. And it usually worked if people were not savvy enough to get legal representation.
As to affirmative action, at first blush it seemed unlikely to me too that we had none at all. But I could not think of any and started asking around via friends and acquaintances who work at various governmental levels. Nobody knew of anything. I’m not saying it doesn’t exist here, just that I wasn’t able to find it. Do you have affirmative action in your schools, or any other example in your state? (Under Oklahoma’s proposed amendment, it would still be against the law to discriminate, which is not the same as affirmative action.)
Michi, is severance tax significant in UT? If so, from what source(s)?
LikeLike
Mark, this may be of interest
http://valocalitylaw.com/2012/02/02/proposed-constitutional-amendment-on-eminent-domain-cons-and-pros/
LikeLike
“markinaustin, on November 6, 2012 at 12:57 pm said:
…
That kind of story is why private developers pushed so hard to get states and cities to let them have the power of eminent domain so they could put together big projects that would “help the tax base”. Struggling cities in the 90s went for it. I wish Kelo had put a stop to it, rather than blessed it.”
Kelo couldn’t have turned into a better cautionary tale on this if it had been planned:
LikeLike
I voted in Maryland Saturday before last. The early voting place (our county only has three) was overwhelmed. It took us 50 minutes total. Today the word from my coworkers is that polling places have huge lines. One guy didn’t vote because he had a plane to catch and didn’t want to miss it.
LikeLike
@Micigoose: “(2) to exempt military members’ real property from property taxes. I voted no on both.”
Would there be any limit to that? I’d have no trouble with exempting military members real property from property taxes up to $500k or something.
LikeLike
@jnc4p: “However, the private developer was unable to obtain financing and abandoned the redevelopment project, leaving the land as an empty lot, which was eventually turned into a temporary dump.”
Exactly the outcome I predicted. Thus, I am not remotely surprised. And you are right, an excellent cautionary tale. Eminent domain for roads and highways is one thing, for financial speculation it is quite another.
LikeLike
okie:
I voted no because this state keeps earmarking money to go into specific funds rather than the General Fund, then they have problems paying for things when there isn’t $$$ left in the GF.
LikeLike
Kevin:
Would there be any limit to that?
Not as the amendment is currently written. I voted no because part of the requirement for it to be exempt is that it must be the military member’s primary residence. If the person (or their family) is living there, then why should it be exempt? I get the gesture that’s being made, but it doesn’t make sense to me.
LikeLike
okiegirl: “Do you have affirmative action in your schools, or any other example in your state? ”
For employment (universities, local government), yes, and government contracting. I do not know specifically what if any affirmative action programs for university attendance there are. Affirmative action in regards to university attendance seems to most non-productive application of affirmative action, as it’s so wrong-headed, although in contracting it often seems counter-productive as well, leading to poorly handled public works projects in some cases, as superior providers are passed over in favor of minority owned businesses. Although the nepotism in much contracting trumps affirmative action: that is, the least qualified candidate gets the project because of who they know. Often, this is under the auspices of affirmative action, but it is their association with politicians awarding the bids, in truth, rather than affirmative action that gives them the contract. Sometimes this comes to light, other times it’s just rumor, so who knows.
LikeLike
Thanks, michi. I’m pretty ignorant about Utah so did not know if they had significant oil/gas or perhaps other mining to which a severance tax would apply.
The trend in Oklahoma recently is to significantly reduce taxes related to oil and gas, as opposed to deciding which fund it will go into.
LikeLike
Kevin, that’s interesting about your state’s affirmative action programs (TN, correct?). I think I better do some more checking around here. Your discussion of contracting makes me think that might be the case here as well.
LikeLike
I thought I commented earlier, but it looks like it got lost. Anyway, I arrived 5 minutes before the polls opened and there was already a line. I was ballot #69 and it took me an hour and half to vote. The ballot for my county was 2 pages long front and back. We also only had one machine into which we could feed our ballot. Apparently people were having significant difficulties feeding the machine early on, but they figured it shortly before I got to the machine.
We had several fascinating proposals on the ballots ranging from 25% green energy by 2025, to guaranteeing collective bargaining rights under the state constitution to requiring 2/3 of the legislature to vote for tax increases before they could become law.
LikeLike
WSJ isn’t very happy with us Johnson voters:
“Randy Barnett: The Mistake That Is the Libertarian Party
Voting the LP line could swing the election to the Democrats. That’s not an outcome libertarians should hope for.
November 5, 2012, 7:30 p.m. ET”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203922804578080684214526670.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
LikeLike
“Kevin S. Willis, on November 6, 2012 at 1:28 pm said:
@Micigoose: “(2) to exempt military members’ real property from property taxes. I voted no on both.”
Would there be any limit to that? I’d have no trouble with exempting military members real property from property taxes up to $500k or something.”
I’d have voted no on this too. Yes, I support and respect the military, but carving out more protected classes who are exempt from taxation (see churches & non-profits) is exactly the wrong direction to go.
LikeLike
Interesting:
LikeLike
@okiegirl: ” I think I better do some more checking around here. Your discussion of contracting makes me think that might be the case here as well.”
It is very common for universities and local government to have affirmative action in place for hiring and contracting, less so with university admissions, as far as I know. This may be a practical issue, as only universities where applications exceed available slots would require affirmative action in admissions.
LikeLike
@jnc4p: “Voting the LP line could swing the election to the Democrats. That’s not an outcome libertarians should hope for.”
And libertarians should hope for a Romney presidency? A more pro-business Obama-lite?
LikeLike
Agreed, kevin. Maybe this just comes down to my definition of “affirmative action.” We have state laws requiring “affirmative action plans” and we have generic “affirmative action” clauses we are required to have in our contracts. But then there is this in the governing law (Oklahoma Personnel Act):
“D. The provisions of this section shall not require an agency, board, commission, department, or office of state government to grant preferential treatment to an individual or group because of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or handicap because of an imbalance which may exist in comparison with the employment statistics of the area involved.” [Emphasis added]
To me, it’s “preferential treatment” that defines “affirmative action” as distinguished from non-discrimination.
LikeLike
jnc:
WSJ isn’t very happy with us Johnson voters
Well, since the alternative for me would have been an Obama vote, Mr Barnett can kiss my grits. 🙂
LikeLike
@okiegirl: “t to an individual or group because of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or handicap”
I’d be a little concerned that, depending on interpretation, the addition of handicap might violate the ADA, though it does refer to comparison with employment statistics.
As far as I know, the affirmative action in regards to employment and contracting gives preferential treatment to otherwise equally qualified candidates (in theory, anyway). So it’s more than non-discrimination. In practice, it’s often a method to provide for nepotism in awarding contracts or plum positions, but if affirmative action did not exist, other methods would be utilized to practice nepotism, or defend it. 😉
LikeLike
” WSJ isn’t very happy with us Johnson voters”
Perhaps the WSJ should have considered that possibility sooner. Much like the dems who wanted to blame Nader, repubs who blame Johnson ought to look at their own party’s processes to see why they don’t attract more voters.
LikeLike
Michi:
How long has it been since you voted in IL, anyway??
1992. Perot.
I voted early this year because we had a huge long ballot to deal with this year. Our ballot included 11 constitutional amendments and 6 merit retention questions on judges. The amendments included anti-Obamacare, tax exemptions (including military and spouses property taxes), state funding of churches, and some other crap. “Just say no” was my motto — jnc’s way of putting was exactly what I was thinking:
“carving out more protected classes who are exempt from taxation (see churches & non-profits) is exactly the wrong direction to go.”
Did anyone else get a card in the mail comparing your voting record to your neighbors’? Apparently, of the last 5 elections, my neighbors have voted in an average of only 2.
LikeLike
“From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember’d;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;”
LikeLike
I thought this interview over on Wonkblog was interesting. My impression of when/how the Republican party changed (based on what I heard my parents and their friends discussing) matches up with what this woman said:
LikeLike
No doubt about it, Reagan was consequential and changed the direction of the country. Keep in mind though that distrust of government didn’t start with him, he simply gave an effective voice to an existing trend and was a reaction to the failure of government involvement in economics starting in the late 1960’s going through the 1970’s. “Stagflation” was not a “market failure”.
I also grow weary of “We’re all in this together” as an excuse to raise some peoples taxes to pay for programs that benefit other people.
LikeLike
Gerson has a good piece on the limitations of “political science”
LikeLike
JNC, given the existence of a statute that corrects Kelo’s overreach, I would have voted against the Amendment, unless the VA Supremes were having trouble with the statute. I add that b/c the TX Supremes are having BIG TROUBLE with ours. They want to keep giving the pipeline companies unrestricted condemnation power in spite of our new restrictive statute.
And so it goes.
LikeLike
That is a good piece, jnc, thanks for linking to it. I usually skip Gerson but this was definitely one of his better columns.
LikeLike
Meh. Gerson has a fundamental misunderstanding of the niche that Nate Silver fills.
An election is not a mathematical equation
Of course it is a mathematical equation. For POTUS, it is Candidate X’s EVs >= 270. We don’t get to pick and choose which policies of each candidate we prefer. The choice is binary — we support a candidate or not.
the dismissal of other types of knowledge, including ethical knowledge.
Following 538’s numbers isn’t dismissing ethical knowledge or any other type of knowledge. It is examining the quantifiable metric of public political opinion (polls about political candidates). Poll numbers and likely voter models are not about political philosophy; they are about measuring the course of an election, trends, and potential outcomes. IOW, sports in the political arena.
Lofty rhetoric about people “weighing the priorities of their society and the quality of their leaders” is risible considering the ignorance on the issues of the average voter. But even for the educated voter who is weighing priorities, choosing a candidate is still a binary choice that can be quantified. Gerson has this weird hippie idea that we should all be thinking deeply about policy issues and ethical debates. This may or may not be a laudable goal, but is nowhere near reality for the average voter. OTOH, Nate Silver is merely measuring how those thoughts, deep or not, are manifest. It is the difference between philosophy and physics. There is no reason that the two cannot coexist. But for some reason, Gerson sees Nate as a threat. What he fails to realize is that Nate was a baseball statistics freak and is merely applying his methodology to the only quantifiable metric for politics. He hasn’t even come up with new statistics (similar to WAR, ERA+, VORP, Rtz) to describe the various aspects of elections and candidates.
It is a sad and sterile emptiness at the heart of a noble enterprise.
This last sentence is so overwrought that it is unworthy of a professional speechwriter. More like something an emotional teenager would write.
LikeLike
I think Mike nailed it.
Having worked many elections, the only consideration is identifying and getting out your half of the binary vote.
That is what Rove does. That is what Plouffe does. That is what local small town nominees do.
No Deep Thoughts are involved.
Gerson would learn a lot at ATiM.
LikeLike
Gerson has this weird hippie idea
This is a phrase I never would’ve thought I’d read, Mike! And hey, if you can’t spout overwrought rhetoric on Election Day, when can you spout it?!? 🙂
LikeLike
Hey, please don’t be derogatory about us old, weird hippies.
LikeLike
I fundamentally agree with this:
“The modern belief that only science yields truth results in the application of scientific methods beyond their proper bounds”
See economics.
Also, Gerson is rejecting the idea that the voters are like subatomic particles whose behavior is pre-determined by their racial, age, educational level and income level. They are not. They are free agents.
LikeLike
I don’t trust the government enough to let the affront to the Fifth Amendment that is Kelo be addressed by a mere statute.
Sounds like the experience in Texas validates this concern.
LikeLike
Anybody watching returns yet?
LikeLike
Just checking in on the WaPo page.
LikeLike
Good evening, all. I’m wending my way through some PL comments. Not really much in the way of returns yet. I haven’t settled yet on what coverage to watch (they pretty much all annoy me).
LikeLike
PBS, Okie.
LikeLike
Good call Mark.
LikeLike
Thanks. I’m giving PBS another try because it’s usually my first choice. But it’s local analysis and commentary running, and I’m not so sure they’re worth watching. Giving it another shot. Otherwise, I’ll probably just turn off the TV and rely on internet news.
LikeLike
jnc:
The modern belief that only science yields truth
This is a fallacy that I didn’t address. Science doesn’t yield truth — science uncovers facts. To quote a famous “professor,” “if it is truth you are looking for, Dr. Tyree’s philosophy class is right down the hall.”
Gerson is rejecting the idea that the voters are like subatomic particles whose behavior is pre-determined by their racial, age, educational level and income level.
This is a total strawman. Nobody is saying voters are like subatomic particles. But voter behavior can be observed and quantified. That is called polling. Those are the numbers that are incorporated in Nate’s model.
If you want to get into more Gerson foolishness, here’s another idiotic statement:
“Nate Silver … placed President Obama’s chances of returning to office at 86.3 percent. Not 86.1 percent. Not 87.8 percent. At 86.3 percent.”
This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what Nate does. Nate has a model that simulates how the election will turn out. He runs that simulation every day at least 1000 times. If that model shows that BHO wins 863 times out of 1000, then it is exactly 86.3%. Not 86.2% or 86.4%. This is not a hard concept to understand, yet it totally escapes Gerson.
LikeLike
@jnc4p: “I also grow weary of “We’re all in this together” as an excuse to raise some peoples taxes to pay for programs that benefit other people.”
While I agree we are all in it together, and this justifies some communal spending, I get tired of the suggestion that any limitation on that spending as presently desired demonstrates a lack of good faith, or a repudiation of my fellow man. It may just be I think it’s worth spending our limited funds on x,y, and z, but not on a few other letters of the alphabet. Sometimes I think we can afford bigger government and more spending, other times I may feel what money there is is best put to use in the private sector. That’s not a rejection of my fellow man, it’s just a disagreement about where our limited resources are best put to work at the moment.
LikeLike
I’m streaming NBC right now just because I like their ice rink map.
They just called Connecticut’s Senate race for Chris Murphy (D). The non-fan of fake sports in me applauds that decision.
LikeLike
@michigoose: “It has just gotten more and more “me”-centered.”
Or, it’s become more about individual responsibility and individual potential, one could also say. Could be one of those things where there is good and bad in it: what’s in it for me? is a great incentive, and some people operating under it do great things that end up benefitting everybody in the long run. Of course, too much of that, and it becomes unenlightened self-interest—where we cut off our noses to enrich our faces, so to speak.
Yet we often have difficulty deciding between two sides where we see merits in both arguments, so one side is greedy and self-serving and the other wants to take my hard earned money and give it to indolent ne’er-do-wells. I don’t think the Republicans are exclusively about enriching rich people and destroying them middle class, anymore than I think the Democrats are solely about taxing everybody to death and buying votes through entitlement spending.
Obama is ahead on Google. Control of the house still favoring the Republicans, though not many results are in as yet.
LikeLike
Kevin:
I just remember thinking in 1994 or so that the Republicans were turning mean (and by that I mean politicians at the national level, not the rank and file). I’m all for individual responsibility and such, but since about then–and I place a lot of the blame on Newt Gingrich’s shoulders–it has seemed like the Republican party’s official line has become more and more selfish, self-centered, and punitive. I don’t have any numbers or anything to back it up, it’s just a gut feeling.
LikeLike
Kevin@6:33pm: Stop Making Sense. [Great album]
Kevin@6:40pm: Not so much. I can see “Yet we often have difficulty deciding between two sides where we see merits in both arguments” but I don’t see that your conclusion follows. I’m with michi, but would make the date earlier than 1994.
LikeLike
Aarrgghh! PBS is subjecting me to an interview with Inhofe. My contempt for that particular Senator knows no bounds.
LikeLike
okie:
I’m tellin’ ya, ice rink maps. . .
LikeLike
The first comment I’ve seen on PL in a while that made me laugh (in case you hadn’t heard, rumor has it that Romney hasn’t written a concession speech [the more fool he, if true]):
Voice_of_Reason
5:57 PM MST
Romney texts Obama at midnight: “You know that concession speech that you will not be needing, any chance I could have it?”
LikeLike
And then there was this one (for okie):
aaronweiner
6:05 PM MST
Oh, and they’ve also given Oklahoma to the Republicans. Better Sooner than later.
LikeLike
Mike:
Nate’s reporting that Obama is ahead by 5% in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties with the vast majority of the vote reported.
LikeLike
Just took a gander at ABC’s coverage and early returns. But now I’m watching the replay of the Man City v. Ajax game while reviewing a contract. SHould be a fun, but nervy night.
LikeLike
michi, mark is correct when he calls us the Land Thieves. It’s amazing how many people in Oklahoma don’t realize what the term “sooner” means. Ya gotta laugh.
LikeLike
Michi:
With 339 of 347 precincts reporting:
BHO 273,817 52.63%
WMR 240,174 46.16%
Johnson 3,190 0.61%
LikeLike
ashot:
You should watch the end of the Real Madrid/Borussia Dortmund match too.
LikeLike
Mike- I plan on watch that game for sure. I have always had a soft spot for Borussia Dortmund going back to their big Champions League run back in 1997 or so which happened to coincide with a trip to Europe with my soccer team.
So is the consensus that high voter turnout is good for Obama?
LikeLike
NoVA/Fairlington/jnc et. al.
I just read a comment on PL that some of the polling places in NoVA will be open till 10:00 due to the length of the lines. Are you hearing that??
LikeLike
NBC just called the MA Senate race for Warren
LikeLike
And IN for Donnelly.
LikeLike
So is the consensus that high voter turnout is good for Obama?
Si.
LikeLike
ashot, yes on the question. But more importantly, thanks for the updated pic for the icon. Coming up soon on 2 y//0?
LikeLike
Actually just coming up on 1 year old for ashot jr.
LikeLike
Now Mitt Romney is ahead on the Google! It’s a horse race!
LikeLike
Republicans: selfish. Democrats: self-righteous. I still say it’s six of one, half-dozen of the other, if one attempts to view the contests as an alien from another planet with no horse in any race. 😉
Which is not to say one party fits a person better than another. One man’s selfish is another man’s buy-his-bootstraps, just as one man’s entitled parasite is another man’s poor soul who just needs a helping hand. Of course, I’m a registered Republican, so I’m just not going to see the Republican party as bad as some consider them, or as perhaps they appear to be, though I’m also going to try and give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt (something I used to be less-than-perfect at doing).
LikeLike
Shocker!!
Orrin Hatch wins reelection.
LikeLike
Ah, ashot, sorry I got that wrong. Because it’s obvious looking at the pic, which is great.
kevin, Of course, I’m a registered Democrat, so I’m just not going to see the Democrat party as bad as some consider them.
LikeLike
BHO up 48K in FL with Miami-Dade at 65% reporting. If it stays this way, no recount in FL, thank goodness.
LikeLike
If it stays that way in FL, we don’t have to stay up for OH, CO, et al.
LikeLike
“I’m also going to try and give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt (something I used to be less-than-perfect at doing).”
I can say I have some trouble with that as well. On your larger point, I have a hard time treating the two sides as balanced. My perception is that Repubs have moved more towards extreme individualism & away from any concern beyond the self. Taking health care for example, the dems implemented a market based solution rather than gov’t provided healthcare, but Repubs ran from the compromise they’d initially proposed.
LikeLike
Whoops. Santa Rosa County (Panhandle) just reported — BHO’s lead down to 16K in FL. Could still be a recount, but Miami-Dade is still lagging.
LikeLike
Looks like Broward & Miami-Dade have the largest numbers yet to be reported. Can WMR make up the gap in those counties?
LikeLike
Some light reading while you wait for results. An an interseting article from a Muslim voter.
LikeLike
Broward and Miami-Dade vote 60% D. If WMR is counting on those two, he’d better start writing that concession speech.
LikeLike
I have to admit, my map is looking pretty good right now. Others? (Sorry, NoVA. . . )
LikeLike
They just gave Ohio to Obama…time to go to bed.
LikeLike
OBAMA WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LikeLike
BHO’s FL margin passes 0.5% again with 20% of Miami-Dade yet to report.
*Fat lady singing*
LikeLike
My facebook feed is amusing. Democrats thanking God for the Obama win and Republican friends saying God will protect us in spite of Obama’s win.
LikeLike
ashot:
Either way, God is on your side! Win-win!! 🙂
LikeLike
God had nothing to do with it.
All in all, a resounding mandate for the status quo.
LikeLike
True…although there are more women in the Senate now than ever in our country’s history. So that’s something. We better listen up when Michi and Okie speak.
LikeLike
Now the question is — will WMR concede tonight or will he refuse to accept the projections?
LikeLike
will he refuse to accept the projections?
That’s my prediction. I hear that Megyn Kelly is arguing with Karl Rove on FOX about Obama’s win (their website has declared it for Obama, so since I don’t get TV I don’t know what her issue it).
LikeLike
BHO back up 48K in FL with 17% of Miami-Dade left to report. No recount.
Michi, you’re on your own — my TV is allergic to FOX News.
LikeLike
Mike–
I’m getting it second hand, since FOX didn’t have a stream i could find until after it was called for Obama. Black helicopter time. . .
LikeLike
douchebag is as douchebag does.
That may be the beer talking.
LikeLike
I’m listening to the local ( Repub) pols discussing, and a couple of belly laughs have spontaneously hit me.
LikeLike
Turnout for BHO. Ground game. That’s what I got from reading that the under 30 vote is actually larger than it was in 2008.
Is anyone reporting Johnson’s vote?
Rothenberger on PBS said that the HoR will take a hard line, and if the Ds increase their Senate seats the Ds in the Senate will take a hard line in the other direction, and BHO will have gridlock. Again. As JNC implied.
LikeLike
bsimon:
I don’t think it would be a surprise to anyone here to know that that’s pretty much my opinion of him. . . . for a few years now.
LikeLike
Johnson is around 1% or less in VA I believe.
Anti Kelo amendment got 73% + yes.
LikeLike
OK commentary on PBS is just now allowing that Obama may have won.
Good night, all. (Why, oh why, did I schedule a doc appt for first thing tomorrow morning?)
LikeLike
He makes it tough to like him. If he were the person he says he is – a data driven pragmatist – I’d be inclined to at least respect him. But he’s been pandering to everyone, all the time, with no apparent interest in consistency. I can’t respect that, at all.
LikeLike
“It just means that Mary Fallin will not move to a position in the Romney administration.” [local PBS commentator]
All of you really should be thanking Obama voters for preventing this travesty.
LikeLike
bsimon:
I met him in 2002 and he was a self-absorbed, self-congratulating jerk then; I saw nothing in his campaign that indicated that he’s anything else now.
Kind of like the Dem rep that NoVA dislikes so much from his run-ins with him.
LikeLike
Isn’t Fallin your Governor, okie? if so, praise be!
LikeLike
Jan Crawford reporting on Twitter that WMR is not ready to concede. I guess he’s waiting for AK and their 3 big EVs.
LikeLike
Of course he’s not, Mike. This is supposed to be HIS election. HIS, I tell you!!
LikeLike
Mike, that annoys me. Does he have a valid reason for withholding that?
Michi, yup. But I don’t have a “praise be” for the state since we’re still stuck with her. (For everybody else, yes.) I don’t know if that local tidbit has any credence.
LikeLike
OK. Now Judy Woodruff is saying on PBS that WMR will speak in 5 minutes.
We’ll see …
LikeLike
BHO up 56K with 92% reporting in FL. Why hasn’t it been called?
LikeLike
Tight Senate races in NV and ND. Heitkamp up 5K, Heller up 3K.
LikeLike
Oh hey, concession time.
LikeLike
Appreciated the concession speech (tho it did sound a bit like a reading of film credits). Edit: I posted too soon, about halfway through the speech. But my comment doesn’t change.
LikeLike
Concession speech:
Well I’ll be. Good on Mitt. Nice speech, well done, and it seemed heartfelt.
LikeLike
I’m beginning to take my comment back the longer he speaks, though. . .
LikeLike
michi, ha. See my edit to comment above. We’re probably seeing it the same way.
LikeLike
OK, BHO. Talk so I can go to sleep — it’s frickin’ 1:25 in the morning.
LikeLike
Obama won Virginia by double the third party candidate vote, so Johnson, et. al. were not a factor there, but if all the protest votes in Ohio had gone to Romney, the vote would have been tied.
And it’s nice to see that despite Florida being deadlocked, it’s irrelevent.
LikeLike
Sorry, was busy making an election dinner. Lobster mac and cheese. I’ll post the recipe soon. We voted mid-afternoon with minimal lines at the rec center next to TC “Remember the Titans” Williams High School.
Alexandria went straight D for city council. Sorry to see the independent voices lose. Mike Brookbanks was 4th place in an election where 3 go to city council.
I voted no on Prop 1, basically because I bought the argument that there’s current statutory law in Virginia. Yes on Prop 2 (technical amendment regarding overturning a veto).
Glad to see Kaine win. Haven’t checked the latest, but looks like the Senate didn’t change. King in for Lieberman.
BB
LikeLike
I knew FL would be razor thin, but I didn’t think BHO’s GOTV machine would be more efficient at getting sporadic voters than last time. So, unless something drastic changes, I’m going to miss FL on my prediction. OTOH, I nailed WMR’s vote percentage.
LikeLike
I missed Florida and Colorado. The big news out of Florida was the Cuban vote. I was shocked at Obama took it. My prediction for second term: relations will be normalized with Cuba by 2016.
BB
LikeLike