Morning Report 11/2/12

Vital Statistics: 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1428.8 5.6 0.39%
Eurostoxx Index 2554.3 20.4 0.81%
Oil (WTI) 86.74 -0.4 -0.40%
LIBOR 0.313 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.44 0.393 0.49%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.76% 0.04%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.1 -0.3  

Futures are higher on the back of a better-than-expected October jobs report.  Bonds are MBS are down

Nonfarm payrolls increased 171k in Oct and the Sep number was revised upward from 114k to 148k.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% as the labor force participation rate increased to 63.8%. Weekly hours and pay fell. The report pretty much confirms the labor market is on the mend, albeit slowly.

The Northeast continues to pick up the storm damage, although gasoline shortages are becoming a problem as the lack of power in NJ means that gasoline can’t be pumped out of the large tanks into trucks. This will be an additional drag on the 4Q economic numbers as people stay home instead of shopping. 

We have another glimpse of how long the Fed thinks QE should last – until the unemployment rate falls below 7.25%. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cautioned that this was a threshold, not a specific target. Rosengren is one of the most dovish Fed members, but does not have a vote at the moment.  He went further to say that if the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, it is time to start moving away from ZIRP.

Colony Capital won an auction for 970 Fannie Mae foreclosed homes in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It is a complicated partnership agreement and Colony plans to rent out the properties. It looks like they paid close to BPO $176MM for a portfolio that was appraised at $157MM in Feb.  Since Feb, prices have shot up in Arizona.  Colony will get 20% of the rents as a management fee, and will take 10% of the profits up to $136MM, and then their take grows to 50%.  It looks like they only have to put up something like $34 million.  Fannie was unable to sell the Atlanta portfolio.

The MR will be spotty next week as I am traveling to the Left Coast.

11 Responses

  1. This may prove interesting.

    “Hospitals sue Obama administration for refusing Medicare payments
    By Elise Viebeck – 11/01/12 12:52 PM ET ”

    thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/medicare/265353-hospitals-sue-obama-administration-for-refusing-medicare-payments

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  2. Florida is finally getting around to figuring out what to do with its slice of the foreclosure settlement money:

    Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Friday that her office has reached a deal with the Florida Legislature over how to use $300 million in foreclosure settlement money that has sat dormant since March amidst negotiations over spending authority.

    One-fifth of the money, about $60 million, could be approved in the coming weeks for programs like down-payment assistance, legal counseling for foreclosures and initiatives to help deal with the backlog of foreclosures in state court.

    The state Legislature will decide how to spend $200 million of the total during the next legislative session, meaning it will be spent after May. According to the agreement, that money will go to “housing-related” initiatives, a broad term that could include “foreclosure prevention, neighborhood revitalization, affordable housing, homebuyer or renter assistance, legal assistance, counseling and other housing-related programs.”

    The deal also allows an additional $40 million to go to state coffers as a “civil penalty”, adding to the $33 million that has already been sent to the state treasury.

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  3. jnc:

    That interview was positively scary. Did you see this one a little earlier. At least she sounds like she’s been paying attention to more than talking points.

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  4. jnc: It did. My dad worked for NASA for a while during the Mercury/Gemini/early Apollo years and I’ll never forget how proud it made me to tell people what he did when asked (even though all I knew at that age was that “he works for NASA”).

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  5. NoVA:

    Given your comments yesterday, is Hungerford going off the reservation?

    Hungerford said that he had never experienced suppression like this before, and he pushed back on the GOP argument that he had only looked at the effect of tax cuts in the year immediately following enactment. Regardless, he said, Republicans argue that tax breaks for the rich will bring an immediate benefit to the economy, so their criticism is inconsistent. “I checked out three years and then five years and found that no, it doesn’t change the results or the conclusion of my paper. So in a way, I find it interesting that they keep talking about the need to lower the top tax rate in order to stimulate the economy now,” he said. ‘It sounds like they’re being a little inconsistent here.”

    Despite the pressure, Hungerford said he’ll continue doing his job in a nonpartisan way. “I’m not going to change. My job is to do economic analysis on issues that the Congress is comparing and quite frankly, I’m going to continue doing that. That’s my job,” he said.

    From a huffpo piece.

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  6. Pretty good take on Romney:

    “What Romney values most is something most of us don’t think much about: management. A lifetime of data has proven to him that he’s extraordinarily, even uniquely, good at managing and leading organizations, projects and people. It’s those skills, rather than specific policy ideas, that he sees as his unique contribution. That has been the case everywhere else he has worked, and he assumes it will be the case in the White House, too. When we look at Romney’s career and see a coreless opportunist, we’re just looking at the wrong data. ”

    “At this point, neither voters nor Romney have sufficient data to know how he would govern. With a Republican Congress, he would govern from the right. With a Democratic Congress, he would move to the center. If he faces a divided Congress, he will look for compromise to get “the best possible thing done.” Without knowing the composition of Congress, we can’t know the kind of president Romney would be. We know he can manage, but we don’t know which company he will be managing. ”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-01/running-the-data-on-a-romney-presidency.html

    Also, David Frum endorsing him:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/01/why-i-ll-vote-for-romney.html

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  7. Brent:

    When you say “dovish” and “hawkish” about Fed members, what do you mean? I know what I think you mean, but I want to make sure.

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  8. My understanding is that “hawkish” is more concerned about inflation and less inclined to support things like QE versus “dovish” which is less concerned about inflation and more inclined to support QE.

    I’ll leave Brent to answer for himself.

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