Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1428.8 | 5.6 | 0.39% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2554.3 | 20.4 | 0.81% |
| Oil (WTI) | 86.74 | -0.4 | -0.40% |
| LIBOR | 0.313 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.44 | 0.393 | 0.49% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.76% | 0.04% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.1 | -0.3 |
Futures are higher on the back of a better-than-expected October jobs report. Bonds are MBS are down
Nonfarm payrolls increased 171k in Oct and the Sep number was revised upward from 114k to 148k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% as the labor force participation rate increased to 63.8%. Weekly hours and pay fell. The report pretty much confirms the labor market is on the mend, albeit slowly.
The Northeast continues to pick up the storm damage, although gasoline shortages are becoming a problem as the lack of power in NJ means that gasoline can’t be pumped out of the large tanks into trucks. This will be an additional drag on the 4Q economic numbers as people stay home instead of shopping.
We have another glimpse of how long the Fed thinks QE should last – until the unemployment rate falls below 7.25%. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cautioned that this was a threshold, not a specific target. Rosengren is one of the most dovish Fed members, but does not have a vote at the moment. He went further to say that if the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, it is time to start moving away from ZIRP.
Colony Capital won an auction for 970 Fannie Mae foreclosed homes in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It is a complicated partnership agreement and Colony plans to rent out the properties. It looks like they paid close to BPO $176MM for a portfolio that was appraised at $157MM in Feb. Since Feb, prices have shot up in Arizona. Colony will get 20% of the rents as a management fee, and will take 10% of the profits up to $136MM, and then their take grows to 50%. It looks like they only have to put up something like $34 million. Fannie was unable to sell the Atlanta portfolio.
The MR will be spotty next week as I am traveling to the Left Coast.
Filed under: Morning Report |
Op-Ed by Haley Barbour on disaster relief that’s worth a read:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/haley-barbour-after-hurricane-sandy-stop-looking-for-politics/2012/11/01/44b36e1c-2457-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html
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This may prove interesting.
“Hospitals sue Obama administration for refusing Medicare payments
By Elise Viebeck – 11/01/12 12:52 PM ET ”
thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/medicare/265353-hospitals-sue-obama-administration-for-refusing-medicare-payments
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Worth a read:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/02/interviews-with-swing-state-voters-the-coal-miner-who-blames-obama/
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Florida is finally getting around to figuring out what to do with its slice of the foreclosure settlement money:
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jnc:
That interview was positively scary. Did you see this one a little earlier. At least she sounds like she’s been paying attention to more than talking points.
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Yes, I’ve read all of them so far. Michi, this one should make you feel better:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/02/interviews-with-swing-state-voters-nasa-and-space-exploration-things-like-that-are-pretty-important-to-me/
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jnc: It did. My dad worked for NASA for a while during the Mercury/Gemini/early Apollo years and I’ll never forget how proud it made me to tell people what he did when asked (even though all I knew at that age was that “he works for NASA”).
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NoVA:
Given your comments yesterday, is Hungerford going off the reservation?
From a huffpo piece.
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Pretty good take on Romney:
Also, David Frum endorsing him:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/01/why-i-ll-vote-for-romney.html
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Brent:
When you say “dovish” and “hawkish” about Fed members, what do you mean? I know what I think you mean, but I want to make sure.
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My understanding is that “hawkish” is more concerned about inflation and less inclined to support things like QE versus “dovish” which is less concerned about inflation and more inclined to support QE.
I’ll leave Brent to answer for himself.
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