Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1452.0 | 2.2 | 0.15% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2493.4 | -2.7 | -0.11% |
| Oil (WTI) | 90.29 | 1.0 | 1.07% |
| LIBOR | 0.347 | -0.004 | -1.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.64 | 0.098 | 0.12% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.72% | -0.02% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.6 | 0.3 |
Markets are slightly higher this morning in spite of the fact that the IMF cut its global growth forecast. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the close tonight. S&P expects earnings to drop by 2% this quarter. Bonds are down slightly while MBS are up.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported small business optimism dropped slightly in September. Overall, the mood is one of “uncertainty” and the outlook remains glum. Topping the list of concerns was the rising cost of health care insurance, followed by economic conditions, energy costs, and taxes & regulation. Access to credit is not an issue anymore.
FBR banking analyst Paul Miller says its time to start falling in love with mortgage banks again. Of course virtually all of the publicly traded mortgage banks went under during the crisis. He makes an aggressive interest rate forecast – mortgage rates dropping to 3% over the next quarter or two. As a result, he sees the refi boom lasting until late 2013. Ben Bernake’s Refi Nation continues…
The battle over last Friday’s surprising payroll continues with a novel angle: the payroll employment survey numbers were too low. Needless to say, the interpretation of the jobs report has fallen along partisan lines, with those who doubt the numbers being compared to the black helicopter crowd. Jack Welch opened up a hornet’s nest with that tweet calling B.S. on the B.L.S. Is there an election coming up or something?
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
I once “knew” BLS and it was beyond reproach as non-partisan. I assume that nothing has changed in that regard. They could be wrong on the numbers, but their methods don’t leave room for cooking the results, AFAIK.
This reminds me of the “polls are skewed” argument when BHO was leading, now subsiding as WMR pulls even or ahead. I suppose Ds may start calling the polls skewed.
Sour grapes. When you don’t like the message, attack the messenger. What else is new?
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mark:
This reminds me of the “polls are skewed” argument when BHO was leading, now subsiding as WMR pulls even or ahead.
Actually, just yesterday National Review was pointing out how the most recent Pew poll was unrealistically skewed in favor of Romney.
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Scott – I admire NRO’s consistency.
I think the argument that a sample may be skewed is perfectly reasonable. That is why we look for trends among multiple polls more than we do for accuracy of snapshots by individual polls. An accurate snapshot is simply a statistically informed but lucky guess. A trend line of many polls reduces the margin for error to nil.
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Nobel Prize in Physics goes to Wineland and Haroche for quantum trapping. Applications of their work include quantum computing and optical clocks (super accurate). Haroche has also investigated the Schrodinger’s cat paradox.
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Mark, I have seen presumably dem arguments that the pew poll oversamples southern whites. Time will tell whether its a blip or trend. 538 says the WMR debate bounce is already subsiding.
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Thanks, Brian.
I do think it has been a trend, but reversion toward the mean in this race has always meant it was going to come down to turnout, IMHO.
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Did bolding somehow get locked on?
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jnc:
Did bolding somehow get locked on?
I blame Scott. When it gets locked on italics I’ll blame you. 🙂
Actually, just like a couple of weeks ago when the font changed I suspect it’s a WordPress thingie that will magically resolve itself by the end of the day.
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Fixed.
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Mike, did I trigger bold typeface for the entire page when I bolded the quote of the day I posted?
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Mark:
Your bolding didn’t have the “close bold” — backslash was missing. I just added the backslash in and that fixed the problem.
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Mark:
(standing in for Mike) No, I don’t think so, because your quote is still bold while the rest of the page isn’t. I did reformat your quote a little, though.
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Mark/Mike:
I still blame Scott. 🙂
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Jack Welch is out at Fortune Magazine…
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FYI – I found this to be worth watching four years ago:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/choice-2012/
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Brent:
Do you think they asked/told him to leave or he and Suzy are doing it on their own? I can’t tell from the Bloomberg piece.
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Do you think they asked/told him to leave or he and Suzy are doing it on their own? I can’t tell from the Bloomberg piece.
I think the Fortune managing editor was on MSNBC this morning taking Welch to task for the comment and supporting obama. My guess is that jack saw the writing on the wall and quit before he was fired.
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Ah. Thanks, Brent.
On a somewhat related note, I thought this is pretty funny.
That last paragraph was from a WSJ editorial that those of you who have subscriptions have probably already read. But the thought of Wall Street moguls getting their panties in a wad over a joke at the Correspondents Dinner is just delicious.
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From the same article:
And THAT is why Dodd-Frank turned out to be such a soup sandwich full of unintended consequences, with major parts left unsettled. If you don’t talk to the private sector, don’t be surprised when the results aren’t what you expected.
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If you don’t talk to the private sector
Was it just GS that they didn’t talk to, or everybody? I thought I remembered that there were a few Wall Street CEOs that were consulted, but I wasn’t paying very close attention at the time so I could be remembering all wrong.
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interesting argument:
“Goldman Sachs: Whatever you do, Congress, don’t let the payroll tax cut expire”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/09/goldman-sachs-whatever-you-do-congress-dont-let-the-payroll-tax-cut-expire/
In 2010 before the payroll tax cuts, revised GDP was 3% I believe. In 2011 afterward it was 1.7%
Apparently payroll taxcuts are like JNC’s explanation of gold bugs behavior, good economy, good for gold, bad economy, good for gold. In this case, if GDP is growing better you need payroll taxcuts and if it’s growing worse, after them, you need them even more.
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“Record skydive attempt from stratosphere postponed”
Maybe somebody finally said “Holy S—, you were serious?’
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/09/us/skydiver-record-attempt/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
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“Using CBO multipliers and the projected cost of renewing the cut, I estimated that extending the payroll tax another year will boost the nation’s GDP by 0.66 percent.”
Clearly we should just get rid of all taxes entirely. With the multiplier effect, reducing taxes to zero should pay for itself.
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“Well, there you go again!”
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It’s time for ALCOA to lower earnings expectations after the bell again.
I have never figured out who invests in this company or why.
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AA reports EBBS (earnings before bad stuff) of .03, beating expectations of breakeven.
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Think how much more all those poor GS employees will have to pay in taxes if the payroll tax cut expires, though!
Oh, the humanity!!
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Front page of the Post shows the Greeks burning a Nazi flag to protest Merkel’s visit. I wonder at what point the Germans decide the Greek’s aren’t worth the effort.
I’m curious as to where the Greeks expect to borrow money to fund themselves absent the Germans.
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jnc:
Front page of the Post shows the Greeks burning a Nazi flag to protest Merkel’s visit. I wonder at what point the Germans decide the Greek’s aren’t worth the effort.
Overheard as Merkel passed through immigration services in Greece:
Agent: Name?
Merkel: Angela Merkel.
Agent: Occupation?
Merkel: No, just visiting.
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Speaking of Goldman Sachs, it will be interesting to see if they are the only major Wall Street bank that doesn’t get sued by the Feds over the mortgage issues:
“Wells Fargo Sued by U.S. Over Alleged Mortgage Fraud
Bob Van Voris and Chris DolmetschOct 09, 2012 3:28 pm ET
(Updates with statement in second paragraph.)
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Wells Fargo & Co. was sued by the U.S. government over claims the bank committed fraud by making reckless mortgage loans, prosecutors said in a statement.
The complaint, filed today in federal court in Manhattan, seeks damages and civil penalties under the False Claims Act and the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 for more than a decade worth of alleged misconduct in connection with the San Francisco-based bank’s participation in a Federal Housing Administration program, according to a statement from U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in Manhattan.”
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-MBN46B6TTDS301-400LRF5C8M067DJNLS6R2JKUGC&hpid=z3
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jnc:
Speaking of Goldman Sachs, it will be interesting to see if they are the only major Wall Street bank that doesn’t get sued by the Feds over the mortgage issues:
On what grounds should the Feds sue Goldman?
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Don Juan:
Maybe somebody finally said “Holy S—, you were serious?’
I’m still really curious about the parachute, i.e., how it’s going to deploy at that speed without ripping him to shreds. Or ripping itself to shreds. Or both.
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jnc:
I wonder at what point the Germans decide the Greek’s aren’t worth the effort.
I was thinking the exact same thing looking at the Nazi flags and Gestapo uniforms that greeted Merkel.
“Screw you guys, I’m taking my ball and going home.”
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“ScottC, on October 9, 2012 at 2:28 pm said:
jnc:
Speaking of Goldman Sachs, it will be interesting to see if they are the only major Wall Street bank that doesn’t get sued by the Feds over the mortgage issues:
On what grounds should the Feds sue Goldman?”
I’d start with materially misleading investors in the Abacus deal and other items from the Senate referral that they declined to investigate.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/us-usa-goldman-no-charges-idUSBRE8781LA20120809
However, my larger point is that if they go after JP Morgan and all the other banks and Goldman Sachs is conspicuously absent from the rogues gallery, then it will help to cement their reputation as Government Sachs.
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jnc:
I’d start with materially misleading investors in the Abacus deal and other items from the Senate referral that they declined to investigate.
If investors were materially misled, shouldn’t it be the investors, not the fed, who sue?
However, my larger point is that if they go after JP Morgan and all the other banks and Goldman Sachs is conspicuously absent from the rogues gallery, then it will help to cement their reputation as Government Sachs.
It depends on why the others are getting sued. If they are getting sued for problems with their home loan origination procedures, as is the case with Wells in your link, then I’m not sure why anyone would expect Goldman to get sued too if Goldman was not originating home loans.
Remember that prior to 2008, GS was an investment bank, not a commercial or retail bank.
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Scott:
FTW
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Michi:
I’m still really curious about the parachute
He likely won’t deploy his ‘chute until he gets down to 5K or so, after he reaches terminal velocity. The increasing density of the atmosphere (friction) should/will slow him down quite a bit from the high speeds he’ll reach initially in the thin air up at 100K.
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In all honesty, I wonder why the Greeks are mad at the Germans. It would be the equivalent of US citizens protesting because China will no longer buy our Treasuries at a rate convenient for us. Doesn’t make sense.
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Yes on the investors suing, but typically there are some criminal acts involved as well when it comes to fraud. Certainly the Senate investigating committee thought there was something worth pursuing.
With regards to investment vs commercial, JP Morgan is already on the list due to the Bear Sterns activities and I don’t believe it was a commercial bank that originated loans either.
Again, if the Feds go after every bank but Goldman, it will be telling.
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jnc:
Yes on the investors suing, but typically there are some criminal acts involved as well when it comes to fraud.
Criminal charges are different from a civil law suit, no? I don’t think many bank’s have been subject to criminal charges, so GS is not the odd man out in that respect.
JP Morgan is already on the list due to the Bear Sterns activities…
I think the NY AG, not the Feds, is suing JPM.
Has Morgan Stanley been sued by the Feds? That would be the right comparison to GS.
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Mike:
The increasing density of the atmosphere (friction) should/will slow him down quite a bit
Have you seen a graph anywhere of projected speed at different altitudes? I haven’t been able to find one, and I’d like to see what speed he’s planning to deploy at. I know what standard military speed (130 knots) feels like when your chute opens, and once i was on a jump that the pilot mistakenly dropped us at 160 knots and that knocked the wind out of me (and a couple of guys broke ribs). I’m sure that his harness is more sophisticated than standard military ones, but I’m still curious. There are going to be some serious g-forces involved!
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on October 9, 2012 at 2:43 pm said:
In all honesty, I wonder why the Greeks are mad at the Germans. It would be the equivalent of US citizens protesting because China will no longer buy our Treasuries at a rate convenient for us. Doesn’t make sense.”
Never underestimate the entitlement mentality. In Greece the 47% is more like the 90%, and the rest are leaving the country.
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J, I wonder at what point that becomes us. I tend to think we’re already there. I suspect that many Americans are going to get very angry when lenders start wanting more interest.
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Michi:
Baumgartner/Red Bull has a whole site dedicated to the jump. His main parachute is only rated to 150 knots, so he had better have slowed down to at least that by the time he deploys.
I think speed at a particular altitude depends on atmospheric density, body surface area, and temp.
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and mass. Never forget mass!
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Thanks for the link, Mike! I can see what my evening reading/surfing is going to be!
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george:
the Chinese have been net sellers of Treasuries not buyers since 2010
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the Chinese have been net sellers of Treasuries not buyers since 2010
According to bloomberg, China’s Treasury holdings at the end of 2010 were $1.16 trillion. As of July this year (latest info I could find), they held $1.15 trillion. So essentially flat overall, although it seems to have peaked in early 2011.
But, of course, this ignores the fact that holdings would naturally decline without any buying or selling due to maturing debt held. I don’t know what kind of tenors China holds, but I would suspect that much what they hold is in short term US T-bills that mature fairly regularly, anywhere between say 1 month and 1 year. So, given that holdings now are more or less equal to holdings at the end of 2010, I would guess that China has remained a net buyer, not a net seller of US debt since 2010.
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A story that will almost certainly turn out to be a lie:
“Romney knew ex-SEAL slain in Benghazi”
It has made up written all over it
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He met him at a Christmas party (which evidently wasn’t even the one he was supposed to go to). Hardly qualifies as “knowing” him.
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Presumably if Romney’s lying, then the SEAL’s wife will set the record straight. You are getting a little Steve Benen like in automatically assuming that everything Romney says is false.
From Michi’s link:
“A neighbor of Romney’s reached out to the candidate last week to notify Romney of the coincidence. Doherty’s sister said the campaign had notified her family that Romney would speak about the late SEAL, and the family set up a foundation in his honor in anticipation of the mention.”
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Doherty’s sister said the campaign had notified her family that Romney would speak about the late SEAL, and the family set up a foundation in his honor in anticipation of the mention.”
I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since he didn’t make the claim that he “knew” the guy and he seems to be doing the honorable thing. I do wish he hadn’t brought it up in a stump speech, though.
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I thought it was a humanizing story for Romney to bring up and since (as far as I can tell) he didn’t use it to launch an attack on President Obama, it’s fine. I suspect the family may appreciate someone calling attention to the sacrifice the SEAL made.
On a related note, the administration has done a full 180 on claims about the anti-American demonstration due to the film trailer prior to the attack.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/libya-consulate-attack-protests_n_1953057.html
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