Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1442.2 | 1.3 | 0.09% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2491.1 | -2.5 | -0.10% |
| Oil (WTI) | 91.06 | -0.8 | -0.90% |
| LIBOR | 0.353 | -0.002 | -0.42% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.89 | 0.143 | 0.18% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.62% | 0.00% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.4 | 0.2 |
Markets are flattish after ADP says US companies added 162,000 jobs in September. This was better than expectations. August was revised downward from 201k to 189k. Mortgage applications rose 16.6% as rates fell. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Corelogic reported home prices increased 4.6% in August 2012 compared to August 2011. This was the biggest percentage increase in prices since 2006. All but 6 states reported price gains. They are forecasting a 5% increase for Sep.
While we fret about Europe, the other problem lies across the Pacific – the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble. The Chinese appear to be at the final phase of the bubble, where the government is hoping that prices simply stagnate for a decade while economic growth and incomes catch up. Unfortunately, experience tells us once bubbles become inflated they take on a life of their own. That said, the Chinese are savers, and have a cushion that US and European households do not.
The Washington Post tries to game the election for the markets. Bottom line: the evidence is mixed, so don’t try and trade it. Of course pundits from each political persuasion will try and claim that they are better for the markets. The article ignores the most important consideration (IMO) – An Obama win means the Fed will continue its policy of aggressive quantitative easing. A Romney win means a new Federal Reserve Chairman, and presumably less aggressive measures. So at the margin, an Obama win is bond bullish (or neutral), while a Romney win is bond bearish. I would say that would apply to the stock market as well, at least in the short term. Longer term, the economy will benefit more from less manipulation of interest rates than more. ZIRP is creating imbalances that will create problems down the road.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
“An Obama win means the Fed will continue its policy of aggressive quantitative easing. A Romney win means a new Federal Reserve Chairman, and presumably less aggressive measures. So at the margin, an Obama win is bond bullish (or neutral), while a Romney win is bond bearish.”
Can’t say I agree because Bernanke has another 17 months from today, no matter. Furthermore, give his tax cutting strategy, the very last thing that Romney would ever want to do is a appoint a new Fed chair that would raise rates on Treasuries so as to throw his budget projections even further out of whack.
Wouldn’t you agree?
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Perhaps, but with all the usual disclaimers (no Euro implosion or recession), If Romney wins, I would be shorting the 10-year and the 30 year. At a minimum, I believe the yield curve would steepen.
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brent
I think we’re going for that ride no matter, because the short guy with the beard is pointing a gun at us and saying get in the car.
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“get in the car.”
Joke’s on him. I donated the 2nd car today. I won’t be replacing it. We’re a one car family for the foreseeable future.
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OT – laugh of the day:
“You find that along with the culture of death go all kinds of other law-breaking: not following good sanitary procedure, giving abortions to women who are not actually pregnant, cheating on taxes, all these kinds of things,” Akin said.
I should have posted it as the quote of the day rather than symmetric campaign gaffes.
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Mark:
laugh of the day
Yeah, hilarious.
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Scott, that is a strange story, indeed. Do you know that it was the context for Akin’s remarks?
I understand a blighted ovum may test as a pregnancy from a kit – without an ultrasound. I am surprised an RN would not have sought an ultrasound, frankly. But I hope she countersued for malpractice and won.
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Mark:
Do you know that it was the context for Akin’s remarks?
No, but it makes more sense to me to assume that it was than to assume he had no knowledge of it, especially given the location line on the article. Certainly, in any event, I for one would be less inclined to engage in cheap mockery and eye-rolling at his expense in light of the story.
jnc:
I suspect it was one of those rare incidents that became well known within the anti-abortion movement as it validates one of their criticisms and thus came to Akin’s attention.
Agreed.
…and a different reaction from a more politically diverse audience.
I don’t know about “more politically diverse”, but certainly from an audience ignorant of the story and more interested in making fun than in understanding what he was referring to. As we have seen.
BTW, I had no knowledge of the story before today. But when I read the quote, it didn’t seem at all beyond the pale that an incompetent or unethical doctor somewhere might have performed an unnecessary “abortion” on someone who wasn’t actually pregnant. In fact I assumed it almost certainly had happened. There are incompetent and unethical people in all professions, even, shocking as it may be to some, abortionists. Didn’t take a lot of work to discover the story.
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Riding to work with the great unwashed are we?
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mark
I wonder if they get a discount.
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I had the fleeting thought that Akin thinks a tubal ligation is a preemptive abortion.
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if you mean down I-66, yes.
we still have 1 car. but i was about write a check for the car tax and new registration. and it occurred to me that we use it about once every other month. and it needed some work. all of which added up to more than the value. not worth it.
so I decided to donate it rather than go through the hassle of selling it.
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There was actually a pretty good PL post on Akin yesterday:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/with-elizabeth-warren-leading-gop-may-have-to-stick-with-todd-akin/2012/10/02/6d24a3b6-0ca1-11e2-97a7-45c05ef136b2_blog.html
I’d add that if he actually does pull out a win, then political discourse will have been defined down once again. Claire McCaskill herself will share some of the blame with her cynical ploy to keep Akin in the race based on the argument that the national Republican party shouldn’t dictate to Missouri Republicans who to nominate. An Akin victory will lower the bar on what politicians can say and do because at the end of the day all that matters in politics is what you can get away with and still survive.
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Mark:
Where in the world did he say that? Has anybody (him or his campaign) explained what he thought he was trying to say??
Yowza. Please tell me MO is not so hidebound that it will elect him simply because he has an R after his name!
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Kelley – Speech on the House floor in 2008 picked up this week and redistributed by NY Magazine.
Akin has a history of self acknowledged expertise on abortion.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mo/missouri_senate_akin_vs_mccaskill-2079.html
MO is toss-up/lean Romney. So for McCAskill to win, she’ll need Romney voters to split a ticket. fortunately for her, MO got rid of straight ticket voting.
Plenty of states have senators who are only there because of party ID. although that’s a bigger issue at the house level.
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Plenty of states have senators who are only there because of party ID
cf: Utah. We’ve had some really good candidates run the last three elections as Democrats who were all moderate–in fact, often too moderate for my taste–politicians and personally popular. . . but having that D after your name will kill you every time in Utah!
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Mark:
Akin has a history of self acknowledged expertise on abortion
I’m not touching that one with a ten-foot pole! 🙂
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nova
I-66
AYEEEEEE!
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Scott:
From your link:
While I’m not defending his medical credentials, sounds to me more like this woman just shouldn’t have sought an abortion in the first place. Don’t get one if it’s going to cause you this much distress! No one was holding a gun to her head forcing her to go to that doctor’s office.
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“Abortionist Yogendra Shah lost his lawsuit last month against botched abortion victim Melanie Mills. Shah had sued Mills when she went on the radio in the St. Louis area and told listeners about how Shah had given her an abortion at his Granite City, IL, abortion mill without performing a pregnancy test and failed to inform her that no baby existed”
So she’s registered nurse but it’s solely the doctors’s fault that he didn’t perform a pregnancy test, to say nothing about the fact that she apprently didn’t understand much about birth control either.
To the extent that this is anything, it’s an individual malpractice case and/or a case of religious conversion
http://www.prolifeblogs.com/articles/archives/2006/03/prolife_blogger_3.php
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Actually, DJ, no lawyer would have taken the malpractice case as the cost to proceed in malpractice only is justified for plaintiffs’ lawyers in cases of death or brain damage or maiming that cannot be corrected.
When he sued her for libel she had the opportunity to counterclaim, unless the SOL shut her out.
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“markinaustin, on October 3, 2012 at 11:27 am said:
Scott, that is a strange story, indeed. Do you know that it was the context for Akin’s remarks?”
I suspect it was one of those rare incidents that became well known within the anti-abortion movement as it validates one of their criticisms and thus came to Akin’s attention. It’s the sort of thing that would get knowing nods when he speaks to the base and a different reaction from a more politically diverse audience.
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JNC, that sounds very plausible. I suppose that before ultrasound ectopic pregnancies were sometimes the subject of abortion attempts that were not negligent. Akin, of course, did not couch such an event as either accidental or negligent, but suggested that docs intentionally
performattempt abortions on women who are not preggers because they are depraved.LikeLike
mark;
yes, i was speaking in terms of what the situation itself was, not that the case was viable
the guy may indeed be a terrible doctor, but it’s not as if that’s in any way restricted to abortion providers.
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Worth a read:
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So she’s registered nurse but it’s solely the doctors’s fault that he didn’t perform a pregnancy test, to say nothing about the fact that she apparently didn’t understand much about birth control either.
To the extent that this is anything, it’s an individual malpractice case and/or a case of religious conversion
That’s the way I feel about it. It reminds me of two sayings that I used to hear from my elders when I was growing up: (1) she is free, white, and 21–she can make her own decision, and (2) you makes your decision and you takes your consequences.
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Scott:
I don’t know about “more politically diverse”, but certainly from an audience ignorant of the story and more interested in making fun than in understanding what he was referring to. As we have seen.
I guess we just aren’t all as pure at heart as you are. But given that Akin was using (presumably) this one rare case to make a broad point, he opens himself up for mockery (especially given some of his earlier statements about women’s reproductive organs and their ability to perform miraculous feats).
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“Michigoose, on October 3, 2012 at 11:39 am said:
…
(2) you makes your decision and you takes your consequences.”
This would make an excellent foundation principle for government social policy.
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“markinaustin, on October 3, 2012 at 11:58 am said:
…
suggested that docs intentionally
performattempt abortions on women who are not preggers because they are depraved.”Or because that’s how their reimbursement/compensation model works.
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I thought abortions were not in anyone’s reimbursement/compensation model.
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jnc:
This would make an excellent foundation principle for government social policy
That’s the Libertarian in me coming out. 🙂 Just this morning as I was driving through the neighborhood on my way to work and noticing the lawn signs starting to pop up I was thinking I should get both a Johnson and an Obama one. Just ’cause.
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Mark:
I thought abortions were not in anyone’s reimbursement/compensation model
My guess would be that elective ones aren’t but that medically necessary ones are. And those depraved doctors could undoubtedly find a medical reason to do an “abortion” just for fun.
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Abortions are a cash business for the most part.
SPOILER ALERT: In Jay McInerney’s novel Story of My Life, the protagonist Alison Poole (based on Hunter Rielle, McInerney’s former girlfriend and the future lover of John Edwards) has a habit of faking pregnancies to extort money out of boyfriends until one time she isn’t crying wolf. The going rate in 1988 was $200.
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If lms will not turn to the Dark Side… then perhaps michi will
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Presumably they would be if they are covered by insurance.
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a lot of states either prohibit insurers from covering abortion or require the purchase of a separate rider — to keep funds from commingling is the official reason IIRC.
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reuters reporting that Turkey has hit targets in Syria in retaliation for an earlier mortar attack.
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Turkey could not let that go unanswered. If it is met be escalation from Syria, then NATO will have a decision to make – which I assume would be logistical support fro a Turkish action.
I am guessing Assad knows that and will back away from the Turkish border.
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good read, I thought.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-syrian-resistance-needs-us-help/2012/10/05/0332ec44-0f2e-11e2-bb5e-492c0d30bff6_print.html
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NoVA:
Never!!! 🙂
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(I believe in too much of a social safety net to truly come over to your side)
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Worth a note:
“Presenting The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund You Have Never Heard Of
Tyler Durden’s picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2012 14:47 -0400”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-30/presenting-worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-you-have-never-heard
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Some very interesting thoughts in here:
“There’s Too Much Debt, Here’s What to Do: Kyle Bass”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49272564
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and a few doors down the street:
“California Cities in ‘Conga Line’ For Fiscal Trouble”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49274841
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Todd Akins doubles down on the crazy.
So. . . there’s “ample evidence”, but no one knows if it’s a major problem because “no one reports on it anymore.” He and his campaign didn’t even both to google (or whatever Scott did) to find anything more recent than 1978. The guy is a joke. And yes, Clare McCaskill will have a lot to answer for if she can’t pull this one out.
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