Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktThis will be an open thread, live blogging the first Presidential debate.
From a variety of sources this is what we know:
The first presidential debate of 2012 will be held on Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo. The moderator is Jim Lehrer, executive editor of the PBS NewsHour.
The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 2012 presidential debates will be moderated by a single individual and take place from 9 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Neither of the candidates will be permitted to give opening statements, but will be allowed 2 minutes for closing statements.
The first debate will focus on domestic policy. The specific topics will be announced several weeks beforehand, and the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments focusing on each. The moderator will ask a question, and each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond.
It should go something like this:
A debate that will consist of a total of six time segments of approximately fifteen minutes each in length. The issues to be discussed by the candidates have been agreed to in advance of the debate. Lehrer said on September 19, as he announced the issues that would be debated on Wednesday, that the first three segments would focus on “the economy”, while the final three would discuss “health care, the role of government, and governing”.
Each candidate will be asked a question by the moderator, and the candidate will respond with his answer, representing his personal view on the question. Some new proposals may be introduced during the debate, and while the debate will have few direct interactions between the candidates, both candidates are expected to question the proposals of their opponent.
And then a little hopeful thinking from one of Nova’s links:
Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutes to respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.
That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.
What are you looking for in the debate? Do debates ever change the trajectory of an election? Why are there so few chances for third party candidates to participate? Will we hear any surprises, policy-wise, from what we’ve heard on the campaign trail?
And lastly, here are some body language tells we can all watch for…………hahahahahaha
1. An itchy nose could be a sign that someone isn’t telling the truth. If someone is scratching their nose, there could be an issue
2. Hands in pockets are a sign of insecurity
3. Crossed arms don’t necessarily mean a person is angry or protective: They could just be cold in the studio where the debates are taking place!
4. Touching the neck could be a sign that someone is threatened or feels insecure
5. Finger pointing is a sign of aggression and it can make the audience mistrust the speaker
Another telltale sign, experts say, is frequent blinking by a speaker. It might indicate that person is uncomfortable with the words they are saying.
Filed under: 2012, Debates, Mitt Romney, Obama |
All Things in Moderation 
I was surprised by a poll over at the WaPo asking about third party candidates and the debates. The support wasn’t that high. It was only 53% supporting inclusion of third party candidates in the debates.
I went ahead and put this up a little early so everyone will know we’re here. I have to leave for an appointment but will be back in plenty of time to watch the debate.
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lms:
You forgot the “sighing” tell. Both guys better put “that one” in the lockbox. Oh, and the “sweating/no makeup” and “whipped puppy dog look” tells too.
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Time saving headline for both sides
“______ exceeded expectations, and is therefore the winner”
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Mike all good tells, especially the sighing. Here’s another one.
Overly tilted heads are either a potential sign of sympathy, or if a person smiles while tilting their head, they are being playful and maybe even flirting. (Note that people with vision problems such as amblyopia will also have a tilted head.) 😉
banned, yes, really nothing new about that is there. I like to talk about the debates before I hear or read the punditry wax ad nauseum and then compare my impressions with theirs. I like the Presidential debates…………….don’t really know why but I usually learn something about the candidates and I think it’s a fascinating tradition that has little, if any, meaning.
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Greg had an interesting point in one of his posts today:
Emphasis mine. Something I’m going to try to keep in mind. . .
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michi
Emphasis mine. Something I’m going to try to keep in mind. . .
Me too. I’m very liberal but not completely close minded (although some might disagree) to ideas from the right or libertarians. I’m not much of a cable news watcher anymore so I end up reading opinions instead which I know is just as bad…… 😉
What site are you going to watch the debate from…………….CSPAN………..that’s what I was thinking of.
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Re Greg,
I’m sure there are a few undecideds who are channel surfing and will land on the debates and stay for a while out of the sense that they are supposed to watch it.
I am really trying to get myself interested in watching it and I can’t. There is nothing Romney can do wrong or Obama can do right to change my vote.
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lms:
’m very liberal but not completely close minded (although some might disagree) to ideas from the right or libertarians.
Careful! NoVA’s trying to lure me over to the dark side now, too!
Brent:
You can hang out here with us’ns and just read the commentary and see if it piques your interest! Or makes you laugh. 🙂
Edit:lms: yes, I was going to watch it on CSPAN
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Actually, that would be a fun thought experiment: How extreme would your candidate have to get to make you vote for the other guy?
For me, Romney would have to propose invading Iran to make me vote for Obama.
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Brent:
I’m not sure that Obama could say anything that would make me vote for Romney, because I want the power of the veto. I don’t think the House is going to change hands and I’m worried that the Senate will, so I want to make sure that there’s at least a little bit of sanity in D.C.!
I don’t think that Obama would go along with invading Iran. . . I fervently hope.
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Good evening, all. I was going to check out (in this order) possible live stream without commentary, PBS, CSPAN.
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PBS
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ESPN
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Hi all!!! I’ll try CSPAN. Hope you stick around Brent.
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Here’s the link if anyone needs it.
http://www.c-span.org/Debates/
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OK, got it streaming and watching Jim flip pages. . .
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Jobs, jobs, jobs. Happy Anniversary…………….lol
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tax cuts caused the financial crisis???
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ESPN
Oh, sure, be the level-headed one here tonight, Scott!
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Economic patriotism.
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OK, Romney was actually honestly funny there (“the most romantic place you could be–here with me!”)
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I just read today that small businesses support Obama over Romney.
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and like WMR has ever been involved with a small business. he doesn’t know how to get one started from first hand, despite his earnest expression.
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I just read today that small businesses support Obama over Romney.
unfortunately, this has become partisan as well. Depends on which organization. The National Federation of Independent Businesses is very pro-Romney.
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“no tax cut that adds to the deficit”
OK, where’s the offset?
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Did anyone understand that…………………. re Romney and taxes?
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deductions capped at 17k
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20% tax cut I thought.
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A simple way to approach the debate for WMR is to deny what he has said until yesterday. However, WMR has also talked tonight about revenue neutrality while narrowing the deficit – the issue is still how? Will he also abandon doubling defense?
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brent–i’ve never, even when i was married in and we were pulling in six figures, had over 17k in deductions. i don’t think there are that many people who have deductions high enough to offset his tax cuts.
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“it’s arithmetic”
shades of bill clinton!
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brent–i’ve never, even when i was married in and we were pulling in six figures, had over 17k in deductions.
In high tax states like NY, you can easily get there
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please god, yes, please invest in basic science and research!!!!
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In high tax states like NY
Guess that’s what I get for living in UT, then. . . and WA before that.
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surprisingly boring
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OOHHHHHHH
Romney makes a power move and tells Jim to stand down while he takes the last word.
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I think the arguing back and forth is a debate killer don’t like the format
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surprisingly boring
isn’t it, so far? sooner or later one of them has to let loose on something that pisses somebody off.
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What was the question again?
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i mean I know that’s why they call it a debate and all, but it’s basically 90 minutes of saying “you’re wrong” this way, and we don’t seem to get beyond the first question
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I’ll bet audience members are looking at their watches before either of the candidates.
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Romney’s pretty smooth though.
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“is it worth paying China for it?”
China holds 8% of our debt. this is a stupid statement and doesn’t even fool my R relatives any more.
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Romney’s tilting his head……………man crush?
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don’t like the format
i don’t either–it’ll be interesting to see if Jim sticks with this format when they’re done with this first segment.
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why do we always have to strap kids and education to the bumper of the spending cut bus? Can’t we cut HUD or DOE?
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Sorry for coming late but Wednesdays are bicycling night and one must have priorities. How many zingers have I missed?
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hate the split screen
also Obama must utilize oxygen like lance armstrong, because he can go on and on an on
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yello:
other than that WMR likes Big Bird, you haven’t missed a thing.
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is everybody doing split screen or just cspan? what’re you watching, DJ?
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Romney’s idea is cut spending and growth will bring in revenue…………….I don’t see it. I agree it’s pretty boring though. I don’t think Lehrer’s doing that good of a job.
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I think the split screen is a pool feed
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Is there going to be a second question?
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you don’t just pick the winners and losers, you pick the losers. Hah!
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pbs isn’t split screen, fwiw
I don’t think Lehrer’s doing that good of a job
Agree–he’s totally lost control. It’s like he’s a replacement NFL ref or something. . .
(can I get a zing here??)
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This debate is going to keep fact checkers busy for a week. So far the biggest howler seems to be that we can’t close the deficit by raising taxes. We caused the deficit by cutting taxes, why wouldn’t raising them eliminate it? You can argue the net effect on the economy, but there is a level of taxes that matches spending. It doesn’t seem that tricky to figure out.
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Romney just scratched his nose.
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“she was fiercely indepedent”
It’s a complete flaw that the purpose of SS was so that every single senior can live on their own.
that was never contemplated at all
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lms: when you watch on pbs (not split screen) you can see he’s blinking a lot, too.
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i agree with what you said on PL, lulu–we need a scrolling fact checker along the bottom of the screen. . . except that i’m not certain that any dozen people could type that fast to keep up with them.
i’m not impressed.
and i want some zingers!!!
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Mich, he knows he’s lying.
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oh. . . here comes the $716T line!!!!!
fail
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Thanks for that link, michi. I didn’t like the split screen either.
All the assertions and specific statistics they both are throwing around, I won’t know until it’s fact checked. But I think so far Romney generally has looked smoother.
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okie:
Romney doesn’t look like a caricature which is going to be his victory coming out of this, because most Americans got lost in the back and forth of the numbers about 10 minutes in i would guess
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Lehrer is terrible.
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yes, Romney looks smoother than I would have thought–Portman has been a better practice debate opponent than I thought he would. Possibly the first thing the campaign has gotten right.
And Lehrer really *is* a replacement ref at this point. He’s totally lost control of the stage.
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Lehrer is terrible
By the time he gains control it will be over. I think Romney started out well but now Obama’s gaining on him. Does Romney want to break up the “too big to fail banks”, I doubt it.
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brent
he’s playing your song
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qualified mortgage. yes
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agree, banned.
In terms of presentation, I think Romney achieved his purpose and in that sense, won (at least so far). But he just got maneuvered into a specific discussion of Dodd-Frank, and I don’t think that’s a winner for him with the average jane.
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This is the biggest rambling mess I have ever listened to. I remember watching the MacNeil-Lehrer report when Jim Lehrer was a young fresh face. He just seems so out of it now.
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Is WMR advocating for the breakup of too big to fail banks?
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Romney has done a good job of making himself less scary…
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Is WMR advocating for the breakup of too big to fail banks?
Actually, I think the shareholders of these big banks would be in favor of spinning off non-core activities.
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I think Obama wins on health care though.
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Brent:
Yes, he has. In the back of my mind, however, I have to admit that I’m wondering what his campaign is going to walk back on him tomorrow. 🙂
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Republicans had a bipartisan plan?
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My biggest sticking point with WMR citing study after study after study is that I just don’t trust him (cf CoC “survey” of SBOs and health insurance). After the campaign he’s been running when he sounds that confident I’m wondering who did the studies, on whom, and where can I dig them up to read them for myself??
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Challenger always exceeds expectations – again.
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yes, there should be footnotes for the debates…. an official debate webpage where all of the studies are referenced and linked.
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helathcare is expensive and more care, means higher cost, and more people covered means family plans cost more
SOMEBODY stand up from the audience and yell that before they get carried out
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the part of jim lehrer tonight is being played by Clint Eastwood
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free people and free enterprises inevitably attempt to end that freedom through consolidation
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brent, maybe we could get a federal grant to create such a database.
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Romney’s plan is too complicated to explain just like the math on tax cuts.
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Don Juan:
the part of jim lehrer tonight is being played by Clint Eastwood
Actually, I think it’s being played by Clint’s RNC co-star.
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get a federal grant to create such a database
NoVA!! Paging NoVA!!!
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holy cow Lehrer is 78
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DING
10th amendment reference
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OBL reference waiting in the wings
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he also said let’s suspend habeas corpus
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because the Feds don’t have to pay their pensions
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you don’t live in Mass anymore
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banned, I got distracted by dogs and my link went dead. Who said to suspend habeas corpus? In what context was that said?
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he was talking about all the things that Lincolm found the time to do
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Because of the worst recession since the 30’s.
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education = paint drying
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“it wasn’t very detailed–this seems to be a trend”
ok, that made me laugh out loud
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“He” who spoke about suspending habeus corpus?
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Ugh. He’s getting absolutely crushed.
Lehrer, I mean.
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Lehrer unable to control this is hard to watch. Who is strong enough to control this? Is it the format?
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The first zinger of the night michi.
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“getting”, Mike?
he’s flat. squished. smoooooooooshed.
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mitt rushed the not entitled to your own facts line
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yes jim, you’re out of here,
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Every single time Obama has mentioned a program that would be cut back or entirety or drastically altered, Romney has denied that he would reduce funding for that program.
So what is he going to cut to make his budget math work?
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format
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mitt rushed the not entitled to your own facts line
Plus everyone and their brother says that……………….cliche.
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Romney losing the plot a little…
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OBL……………..finally.
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DING
OBL reference as predicted
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Who is strong enough to control this?
Bill O’Reilly.
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Bill O’Reilly
Interesting choice. Might have worked.
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Rachel Maddow.
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BHO needs to look at the camera for his closing statement.
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Bill O’s ego is too big–he would’ve been interrupting Mitt/O
That’s an interesting question for our own debate tomorrow though–who should have moderated this tonight??
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for the foreign policy debate, Obama needs to wear an “I killed OBL”: t-shirt underneath his shirt so he can rip it open at the right time
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DJ:
Or a big international “no” slash through that classic picture of OBL
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and the winner is . . . ennui
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” So what is he going to cut to make his budget math work?”
I expect the campaign to ask that in coming moments.
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We won…………………….we stuck it out. Thanks everyone. I probably would have turned it off it y’all weren’t watching with me.
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NBC is givng it more to Romney
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Just think. If we were bored by this mess, what is John Q. Public thinking right now? Yankees 14-5 over the Sawx? Miggy winning the first Triple Crown since 1967?
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Yankees 14-5 over the Sawx?
14-2
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We all probably should have just joined Scott at ESPN. Anyone learn anything?
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Wow. This was a complete clusterfuck. Lehrer might as well have been a potted plant. Both candidates were dialing it down. Romney tried to tone down his dickishness to limited success. He interrupted both Lehrer and Obama.
Obama seemed too disjointed and underprepared. He was letting his wonk flag fly and it came off too rambling and scattershot.
Both candidates seemed oddly deferential to the other’s positions. It was almost a mutual admiration society.
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Baseball Tonight for me. Catch y’all later.
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yello, i vote for you as analyst as the night–that pretty much summed the whole thing up. i’m with lulu, i don’t know that i would’ve gotten more than 10 minutes in without you guys, and Scott was probably the smartest one of the bunch tonight!
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Anyone learn anything?
I was not aware that the top 3% of small businesses employ 25% of the people in America.
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We have had better discussions on this board.
Anyone learn anything?
Actually, I don’t recall the Romney campaign previously stating flat out that they did not intend to reduce taxes on “upper income.” I haven’t had much time to devote lately. Has this been stated by Romney before or was it new?
yello, I agree with your assessment.
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where did that come from I wonder
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Axelrod should never , ever, ever go on tv
He’s dickish by nature, like Dick Morris. it doesn’t work
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I was not aware that the top 3% of small businesses employ 25% of the people in America.
That can’t be true, can it?
Yello, good summarization…………………I love the word clusterfuck anyway.
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Baseball’s over for me……………booohoooo. I’ll try to drum up some enthusiasm somewhere…….but not until this weekend…………..maybe.
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Manana everyone.
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me too, g’night
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Good night, all.
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G’night
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Just saw this from John Aravosis over at Americablog……………thought it was funny.
Romney promised to kill Big Bird, Obama killed Osama Bin Laden
Good night again.
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lulu–that’s awesome!
g’night, all! it was a fun debate thread–more interesting than the debate itself. 🙂
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Looks like everyone on both sides pretty much agrees that Romney had a great night and may even have re-set his campaign going forward. I thought he re-invented himself again and Obama wasn’t effective in challenging him on it. This seems like a pretty good commentary on the night.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/return-of-massachusetts-mitt.html
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Lesson #1 from the debate.
Romney’s tax plan is whatever he feels like saying on any given day.
Is what would be referred to as “vaporware” by IT people, a much hyped program that has no real world existence.
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I knew Romney was lying about this last night and it’s a huge issue in our household and among many of our friends and family.
What they did in Massachusetts is ban discrimination based on pre-existing conditions. The same thing that happens in Obamacare. Mitt Romney plans on repealing that, and leaving it up to the states if they want to ban pre-existing conditions.
Brian Beutler of TPMDC:
After the first presidential debate at the University of Denver in Colorado on Wednesday night, one of Mitt Romney’s top advisers acknowledged that, as a result Romney’s plan to repeal Obamacare, people with pre-existing medical conditions would likely be unable to purchase insurance.
“With respect to pre-existing conditions, what Governor Romney has said is for those with continuous coverage, he would continue to make sure that they receive their coverage,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, referring to existing laws which require insurance companies to sell coverage to people who already have insurance, or within 90 days of losing their employer coverage.
Pressed by TPM’s Evan McMorris-Santoro, Fehrnstrom said those who currently lack coverage because they have pre-existing conditions would need their states to implement their own laws — like Romney’s own Massachusetts health care law — that ban insurance company from discriminating against sick people.
http://elections.americablog.com/2012/10/romney-lied-about-pre-existing-conditions-during-debate.html
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lms,
Yes. Romney is defending the status quo which is an improvement over previous policy, but still a tough tow to hoe as anyone who has ever priced COBRA coverage knows. To act like current law is a cornerstone of his new policy is disingenuous at best.
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Yello
More like an outright lie IMO. He’s giving false hope to desperate people and that’s just wrong. I realize everyone’s saying he won the debate, and he certainly did on style, but can a person really win by cheating? I don’t think so.
But, number one, preexisting conditions are covered under my plan.
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Brent:
Did the celebration go on that long last night?
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Just read this from Matt Stoller, a lefty who is not enamored with Obama in the first place.
As for Romney, he went to the left. Romney, just by not appearing to be a creepy out of touch Mr. Burns, punctured Obama’s bubble. But he also did something that an operative friend reminded me of. He appeared just like George W. Bush in the 2000 debates, where Bush appeared more moderate and left-wing. Gore tried the math attack on Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security (Bush double counted contributions), and Bush countered with the infamous line about “fuzzy math”. This time, Romney did the same thing, he just said that Obama’s claims about his own plan weren’t true. They were true. Romney continued to lie about his plans. He said he wouldn’t cut taxes for the wealthy, slash education spending, cut health care, Social Security, or Medicare for current seniors. He went after Obama for cutting social programs. Romney, in essence, debated like a liberal Massachusetts Republican. Nothing he said was true, in all likelihood. But Romney does believe that Obama’s stewardship of the economy is terrible, and he was able to sell that quite effectively.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/10/post-debate-analysis-the-media-can-now-get-the-electoral-horse-race-it-wants.html#mOKtCXIzZutP5919.99
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Sorry I missed this lmsinca after promising to attend. I was out drinking and actually haven’t seen the debate yet.
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out drinking
Sounds good to me.
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NP jnc…………….I’m sure you had much more fun. Romney won. Romney lied. Obama let him. There ‘ya go……………no need to watch yourself.
Romney won the debate in no small part because he adopted a policy of simply lying about his policies. Probably the best way to understand Obama’s listless performance is that he was prepared to debate the claims Romney has been making for the entire campaign, and Romney switched up and started making different and utterly bogus ones. Obama, perhaps, was not prepared for that, and he certainly didn’t think quickly enough on his feet to adjust to it.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romneys-successful-debate-plan-lying.html
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Don’t have too much time for a comment but my two cents on the debate:
I actually liked it. Yes, it lacked structure and JL did let the candidates run overtime but I actually liked that better than a 30 second sound bite. It did get into the weeds but I liked that too (that probably didn’t go over so well to a lot of folks). It helped that both of them were reasonably courteous. It could have gone downhill fast if they weren’t. If also helped that they both pretty much stayed on topic…at least comparitively to other debates I have seen. I am more than ok with the moderator NOT being part of the story.
Not so keen on the split screen for the whole debate (CBS). It is one of those things that to me seems like a good concept but in practice doesn’t work as well and distracts me from what either candidate is saying.
Who lied the most? Hey, it’s a political debate. I think the importance of that question is way overrated. Both candidates and all politicians present their own version of the truth all the time. That is why fact checkers (and fact checker checkers) are in such high demand during this season.
I think Romney did very very well. I particularly liked his response to the Exxon Mobil profit ding Obama used. I also liked his I am laying out my principals and details are for later/compromise response to not providing ‘enough’/’hiding’ details on his proposals. Obama certainly did not screw anything up but he seemed to be playing it safe. I don’t think he was particularly compelling in why anyone should give him four more years – return to the policies that got us to this point? Really? Does anyone think that our situation is realistically due to one party? But this election is his to lose so I can see why he used the safe strategy.
I am really looking forward to the VP debate – that should be just plain fun.
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Thanks for the links, lms.
Both candidates and all politicians present their own version of the truth all the time.
Dave!, to me the point was that during this debate Romney for the first time substantively and significantly changed his platform/”version of the truth” from what he has been campaigning on for all this time. Not that I’m partisan or anything (haha), but it came across to me as the ultimate flip-flop deceit. People not so interested in politics whose first introduction to the campaign was this debate would not be aware of that. OTOH, Obama did not come to the debate with a whole new platform.
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Why have so many of you chosen to be represented graphically by your pets?
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Mark, somehow, and I am not sure exactly how this is, the cat was the only feasible jpeg I had at the time on the PC when I registered…
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Mark:
Because Daisy is just so darn cute. Plus I had created a Moonbat Daisy version for qb when we were over on the PL during the 2010 elections and I brought them both over here.
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mark, my avatar is not my pet. It is a photo I found on the internet of a muzzled pit bull, and I use the avatar for the symbolism inherent in that.
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Mark:
Because you can never get enough of gas masks and atropine.
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