Morning Report 10/1/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1439.0 4.8 0.33%
Eurostoxx Index 2480.9 26.7 1.09%
Oil (WTI) 91.72 -0.5 -0.51%
LIBOR 0.355 -0.003 -0.91%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.8 -0.135 -0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 0.0  

Stock index futures are higher as we kick off the 4th quarter.  There are no major headlines or economic data this morning. Later this week, we will get the FOMC minutes from the last meeting, and Friday’s jobs report will have market moving potential. Bonds and MBS are up.

Will the fiscal cliff affect housing in any way?  Perhaps.  One provision in the expiring tax cuts is the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation which made the debt forgiveness in short sales non-taxable.  Typically debt forgiveness is considered taxable income.  If this provision goes away, short sales and mods with principal forgiveness may grind to a halt.

Meanwhile, HUD secretary Shaun Donovan was defending the mortgage interest deduction on the Sunday morning talk circuit over the weekend.

79 Responses

  1. brent

    I’m not familiar, taxable to whom?

    Like

  2. Taxable to the borrower. Would make borrowers more reticent to pursue a short sale.

    Like

  3. DJ – debt forgiveness is taxable income to the debtor, generally.

    Brent – I heard a snippet while half sleeping that G-S thinks QE3 would raise GDP by 3/4%. If so, why would G-S think that?

    Like

  4. Mark, I guess they believe that QE will enhance the wealth effect as stocks and housing go up in value.

    I can’t imagine it will do anything for actual businesses – the problem with the economy is not that interest rates are too high.

    Like

    • I can’t imagine it will do anything for actual businesses – the problem with the economy is not that interest rates are too high.

      My thought, exactly.

      Brent and DJ, the debt forgiveness issue in foreclosure is not as big a deal as all that. People who are really insolvent also get to avoid debt forgiveness income, by a general rule. And people who were not really insolvent who gave up the house had to reduce basis in other assets by the amount of the forgiveness income excluded. So it will accelerate income for the solvent but have no effect on the insolvent debtor in foreclosure.

      Like

  5. so it’s taxed as capial gains or how?

    Like

  6. taxed as income.

    Like

  7. ” I heard a snippet while half sleeping that G-S thinks QE3 would raise GDP by 3/4%. If so, why would G-S think that?”

    so they can sell short on their own account for later.

    Like

  8. brent

    didn’t know that, ain’t that a bite in the ass!

    Like

  9. Another reason to use the bankruptcy system to resolve the housing issues.

    Like

  10. mark

    is Texas a non recourse state and if so what is the tax treament

    Like

    • Texas permits deficiency collection on a 2 year statute of limitations after foreclosure. The debtor is protected only from a below market foreclosure sale. Example: Debt = $100K. Foreclosure sale is at $70K. Bank sues for $30K. Debtor shows evidence of $90K value at time of sale. Deficiency = $10K. As a practical matter, deficiencies in foreclosure cases get negotiated on that basis.

      All forgiven debt is either current income or a gift under general IRC laws.

      Like

  11. Romney makes an ass ouf of himself again today in the WSJ

    “Under President George W. Bush after 9-11 there were no attacks on America and no deaths as a result of terrorist attacks on Americans. President Obama can’t say the same.”

    The next time you go through an airport tell them you don’t have to take off your shoes because Romney says that Richard Reid never tried to take down an American Airlines flight.

    Here’s an additional list of all the other Americans and American interests that weren’t attacked either:

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001454.html

    I guess that scientist should have never committed suicide because he never made any athrax attacks either.

    What a complete idiot Romney can be at times.

    Like

  12. For you libertarians, here is the argument for voting for Romney:

    So is Mitt Romney the man to save us?

    Well… no.

    But he can buy us time.

    In other words, hold your nose and vote for the lesser of two evils.

    Like

  13. “bannedagain5446, on October 1, 2012 at 9:49 am said:

    What a complete idiot Romney can be at times.”

    The more the campaign goes on, the more it appears that Romney is just parroting what he read on a conservative blog in a bid to play to the base, but without actually agreeing with it or even thinking through the argument. That’s the best expatiation for his making a hash of the 47% argument by conflating it with President Obama’s base.

    It reminds me of Rich Lowry’s observation:

    “The overall impression of Romney at this event is of someone who overheard some conservative cocktail chatter and maybe read a conservative blog or two, and is thoughtlessly repeating back what he heard and read.”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/322478/romneys-comment-rich-lowry

    Like

  14. Don Juan:

    Here’s an even whackier one (I think):

    Let’s play doctor. A patient comes to you with joint pain, difficulty concentrating, anxiety, poor attention, and mood swings. You might run a series of tests to rule out a persistent infection or other disorder. If your patient lives in a tick- and Lyme-disease-infested area, you would be wise to test for the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and, if detected, prescribe a course of antibiotics. But suppose the tests come back negative and there is little evidence that your patient was bitten by a tick or was infected with the Lyme disease bacterium. If you are a good doctor, and you are, you might explore a diagnosis of depression, a disease that afflicts almost 10 percent of the population at any given time.

    If you are a doctor who believes that the CDC and NIH have misrepresented carefully vetted clinical trial data about the diagnosis and treatment of Lyme disease, however, you might diagnose your patient with chronic Lyme disease and prescribe an intensive, long-term, side-effect-laden, mega-dose of antibiotics.

    And who would be the biggest supporter of your and your patient’s right to pursue a worth-testing-but-found-wanting treatment? Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

    Lyme disease as vote getter. What are we coming to?

    Like

  15. jnc:

    I agree verbally, but this was in a WSJ op-ed for Chrissakes!

    (of course Ruper Murdoch probably agrees with him)

    Like

  16. “yellojkt, on October 1, 2012 at 9:53 am said:

    In other words, hold your nose and vote for the lesser of two evils.”

    Stopping bad legislation is Mitch McConnell’s job, and he’s much more competent at it than Romney would be.

    This is the first election that I can recall where the Libertarians have run a legitimate candidate with actual executive experience in government, and I intend to reward them with my vote. The longer the election season goes on, the happier I am with Gary Johnson. I doubt that a lot of their supporters can say the same for Obama or Rommey.

    Like

  17. michi

    That’s an away game that my team bus can’t reach. A man has to know his limitations.

    Like

  18. Also Yellow, the easy counterargument to that point is that Republicans will go along with expanding the government if there’s a Republican president. With a Democrat, they are more willing to block measures.

    Like

  19. DJ:

    Ha! 🙂

    Like

  20. jnc:

    This is the first election that I can recall where the Libertarians have run a legitimate candidate with actual executive experience in government, and I intend to reward them with my vote.

    While you’re right, wouldn’t it have made more sense for him to run for the Senate and try to get into the legislating side rather than the executive side? Just thinking of where he would stand a chance of getting elected and his voice heard, rather than the position he’s in now where only political wonks (and his former constituents) know who he is.

    Like

  21. I can’t find the quote, but I believe he ruled out a Senate run b/c he thinks he’d have to funnel pork to the state to get re-elected. or something to that effect.

    Like

  22. NoVA:

    he’d have to funnel pork to the state to get re-elected.

    Surely not! I mean, Rand Paul isn’t doing anything like that, is he? (she says with an expression of wide-eyed innocence)

    Like

    • I tied GJ’s absence from the debates to the Iran War prospects at PL this morning and incurred dismay [and ridicule from Liam]. It is true that optional interventionism is unexamined by Ds when posed by a D POTUS, as several of you have noted.

      I have supported every optional intervention when it occurred, based in large part on trust. It has cost us so much in the ME that I am finally a bit more diffident, or gun shy. Thus I at least want a serious discussion – a serious national discussion – about Iran.

      Like

  23. Rand Paul is fascinating.

    http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/10/rand-paul-reaches-out-to-libertarians-an

    This gets into the best way to change the system — from within or on the outside. Rands comments about new england and the west coast are interesting.

    Like

  24. “markinaustin, on October 1, 2012 at 11:30 am said:

    It is true that optional interventionism is unexamined by Ds when posed by a D POTUS, as several of you have noted.”

    And entitlement expansion is unexamined by R’s when posed by a R POTUS.

    Also Krugman is projecting again:

    “The Real Referendum
    By PAUL KRUGMAN
    Published: September 30, 2012

    Voters are, in effect, being asked to deliver a verdict on the legacy of the New Deal and the Great Society, on Social Security, Medicare and, yes, Obamacare, which represents an extension of that legacy. Will they vote for politicians who want to replace Medicare with Vouchercare, who denounce Social Security as “collectivist” (as Paul Ryan once did), who dismiss those who turn to social insurance programs as people unwilling to take responsibility for their lives?

    If the polls are any indication, the result of that referendum will be a clear reassertion of support for the safety net, and a clear rejection of politicians who want to return us to the Gilded Age. But here’s the question: Will that election result be honored? ”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/opinion/krugman-the-real-referendum.html?ref=opinion

    To the extent that the election is a referendum on what President Obama says that he wants to do on entitlements, then a better case can be made that it’s an endorsement of the “Grand Bargain”, not the “entitlements as usual” argument that Krugman is making.

    Like

  25. Mark, regarding your RIF argument there’s no automatic cut that takes effect on January 2013?

    Like

    • Mark, regarding your RIF argument there’s no automatic cut that takes effect on January 2013?

      Sequestration for FY 2013 takes effect on some day in January, probably 1-2-13. When/if that happens, DOD will notify its contractors what contracts are terminated or partially terminated for the convenience of the government.

      We can assume that contracts near completion will not be terminated but that contracts in the early stages will be, but we do not know that. Perhaps all contracts will be modified. The time for RIF notice is when the contractor receives the termination of contract for the convenience of the government, b/c before then the contractor cannot know who it will have to terminate, or when. This will be a massive undertaking if it happens. Before 1-2-13 no contractor knows that it will have to sustain a RIF, and it does not know what projects are to be affected.

      Like

  26. Some actual good news:

    “The Burmese Odd Couple
    By BILL KELLER
    Published: September 30, 2012”

    Like

  27. More from Krugman

    This election is, as I said, shaping up as a referendum on our social insurance system, and it looks as if Mr. Obama will emerge with a clear mandate for preserving and extending that system. It would be a terrible mistake, both politically and for the nation’s future, for him to let himself be talked into snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    I think he’s trying to warn Obama off the Grand Bargain, but I doubt it will work.

    jnc, I thought you didn’t believe that’s really what Obama wanted. I’m only voting for him because the alternative is worse and I think he’ll at least soften the blow. Cuts are coming though if people resist an increase in taxes to pay the health care costs of today and tomorrow.

    Like

  28. “lmsinca, on October 1, 2012 at 12:07 pm said:

    jnc, I thought you didn’t believe that’s really what Obama wanted.”

    I said based on what Obama says he wants (“balanced plans” and all those vague generalities from the convention).

    “Now, I’m still eager to reach an agreement based on the principles of my bipartisan debt commission. No party has a monopoly on wisdom. No democracy works without compromise. I want to get this done, and we can get it done.”

    http://www.npr.org/2012/09/06/160713941/transcript-president-obamas-convention-speech

    His actions to date don’t match the rhetoric, but I certainly haven’t heard him taking a public stand that’s close to what Krugman is arguing for and thus I don’t think that Obama’s reelection will constitute a mandate for Paul Krugman.

    Like

  29. Here we go again, someone comparing the ACA to Romney Care, and wondering why Republicans pretend to hate it.

    IF Mitt Romney’s pivots on President’s Obama’s health care reform act have accelerated to a blur — from repealing on Day 1, to preserving this or that piece, to punting the decision to the states — it is for an odd reason buried beneath two and a half years of Republican political condemnations: the architecture of the Affordable Care Act is based on conservative, not liberal, ideas about individual responsibility and the power of market forces.

    This fundamental ideological paradox, drowned out by partisan shouting since before the plan’s passage in 2010, explains why Obamacare has only lukewarm support from many liberals, who wanted a real, not imagined, “government takeover of health care.” It explains why Republicans have been unable since its passage to come up with anything better. And it explains why the law is nearly identical in design to the legislation Mr. Romney passed in Massachusetts while governor.

    There is this though:

    Social conservatives’ hostility to the health care act is a natural corollary to their broader agenda of controlling women’s bodies. These are not the objections of traditional “conservatives,” but of agitators for prying, invasive government — the very things they project, erroneously, onto the workings of the president’s plan. Decrying the legislation for interfering in the doctor-patient relationship, while seeking to pass grossly intrusive laws involving the OB-GYN-patient relationship, is one of the more bizarre disconnects in American politics.

    Obamacare draws fire from this segment of “conservatives” because it fortifies the other side in their holy war. Coverage for birth control and abortion has not been introduced by the law; but it has been neutralized economically across all health plans, as part of the plan’s systemic effort to streamline fragmented health insurance markets and coverage.

    The real problem with the health care plan — for Mr. Romney and the Republicans in general — is that political credit for it goes to Mr. Obama. Now, Mr. Romney is in a terrible fix trying to spin his way out of this paradox and tear down something he knows is right — something for which he ought to be taking great political credit of his own.

    Like

    • lms:

      Social conservatives’ hostility to the health care act is a natural corollary to their broader agenda of controlling women’s bodies.

      What tripe.

      Like

  30. From your linked article:

    “The president’s program extends the current health care system — mostly employer-based coverage, administered by commercial health insurers, with care delivered by fee-for-service doctors and hospitals — by removing the biggest obstacles to that system’s functioning like a competitive marketplace. ”

    This statement is false. It does extend the current system to cover more people, but the biggest obstacle to the system functioning like a competitive marketplace is employer provided health insurance subsidized by the tax code.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/05/health_reform_for_beginners_th.html

    As long as they try to maintain the “firewall” in the ACA between the employer provided insurance and the subsidized exchanges, it will fail to control costs.

    Like

  31. jnc

    but the biggest obstacle to the system functioning like a competitive marketplace is employer provided health insurance subsidized by the tax code.

    I agree but isn’t that another Republican aspect to the current system that Republicans want to preserve.

    Like

  32. McCain proposed eliminating the subsidy in 2008 with a refundable tax credit for individuals. Obama slammed him for it.

    Insurers don’t particularly like it either — easier to sell to companies than individuals.

    Like

  33. Scott

    What tripe

    Glad I didn’t say it then.

    Like

  34. This should end well.

    Like

  35. “Dems Let Obama Off the Hook for Bad Economy”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49243546

    Ya think?

    Like

  36. “The Futures Now: New Web Show to Debut Tuesday”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49242957

    A webshow, could be interesting.

    (nat gas at $3.50, right on time or maybe even a little early, $4 by year end. remember in the spring when it was $2 and it was going to be cheap nat gas until the end of time?)

    Like

  37. “In the case of Greece, under last-chance pressure from its international creditors, the governing coalition tentatively agreed on an austerity package that includes some of the most severe cuts in public pensions ever imposed in a developed country. Pension payouts to retirees would be trimmed by as much as 10 percent.

    And then there was Spain, where last Thursday the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy introduced one of the most draconian budgets in the country’s history. It was intended to reassure international investors and demonstrate the fiscal discipline that the euro zone was demanding of Madrid.

    The markets need reassuring: Spain has a stubbornly high budget deficit, its banks require tens of billions of euros in rescue loans and the government may soon have little choice but to request European aid.

    Nevertheless, Mr. Rajoy declined to cut pensions or even to freeze them. Instead, his budget would actually increase payouts 1 percent next year on pensions for former public employees as well as on the social security payments that go to all retired Spaniards.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49236443

    “Severe” is the new moderate!

    Like

  38. Sigh. Just when you think it can’t get any worse:

    “Mitt Romney doesn’t need new zingers. He needs new policies.
    Posted by Ezra Klein on October 1, 2012 at 11:13 am

    Behind in the polls and facing mounting panic among his donors, Mitt Romney is readying his secret weapon for the debates: Zingers.

    “Mr. Romney’s team has concluded that debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since August,” reports the New York Times.

    Pro tip: If your strategy to turn the presidential election around relies on Romney’s sense of comic timing, you might want to prepare a Plan B, as well. ”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/01/mitt-romney-doesnt-need-new-zingers-he-needs-new-policies/?hpid=z2

    Like

  39. From the NYT that is the basis of Erza’s piece.

    “During preparations, fewer than a dozen advisers are in the room. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts plays Mr. Romney. Aides press Mr. Obama about unemployment, taxes and foreign policy, and try to be “as annoying as a White House correspondent,” as one put it. “You want to push the button and see how he will react,” the aide said.

    That’s hilarious. Thinking that we have an adversarial press that’s ever asked Obama a tough question, let alone a follow up.

    Re: zingers — *facepalm* — I can’t imagine something coming off more scripted and fake that a focused group tested one-timer that by definition isn’t a one-timer b/c it wasn’t spontaneous.

    Like

  40. I can’t imagine something coming off more scripted and fake that a focused group tested one-timer

    To be fair, Lloyd Bentsen’s “You’re no Jack Kennedy” came off pretty well, even though it was scripted. But you can’t do that effectively multiple times in a debate.

    Like

  41. as annoying as a White House correspondent

    Maybe they’re thinking of when Jay Carney is talking to them. Because otherwise, I agree with you about Presidential pressers.

    Like

  42. Mike’s comment reminded me that I meant to post this, which is recollection from candidates on the debates: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/for-obama-and-romney-dos-and-donts-from-past-presidential-debates/2012/09/27/8977a2e4-0665-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_story_1.html

    “The debate coverage focused on [Lloyd Bentsen’s] Kennedy line. People came up afterwards and said, “You should have had a lot of comebacks on that.” I said: “Okay, fine, you tell me what. The most interesting comeback would have been, ‘Now wait a second, if my memory is correct, you voted for Senator [Lyndon] Johnson in those days. You weren’t even for Senator Kennedy when he was running for president, so what’s this buddy-buddy business?’ That was the best one.”

    — Vice President Dan Quayle, on his 1988 debate with Lloyd Bentsen

    Also, this was interesting, as it’s calling for an actual debate.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-to-turn-obama-and-romneys-faceoff-into-a-real-debate/2012/09/28/99d97ace-08bb-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_story.html

    Like

  43. This report explains a lot:

    Cognitively, it is much easier for people to accept a given piece of information than to evaluate its truthfulness. This stacks the deck in favor of accepting misinformation rather than properly rejecting it. When people do take the time to thoughtfully evaluate the truth of information, they tend to focus on only a few of its characteristics: Is the new information consistent with other things they believe to be true? Does it “make sense”? Does the information come from a credible source? People also look to others to help them validate information, which means the more widespread a piece of misinformation, the harder it becomes to debunk it.

    Full article available in pdf format at the link.

    Like

  44. “markinaustin, on October 1, 2012 at 2:34 pm said:

    The time for RIF notice is when the contractor receives the termination of contract for the convenience of the government, b/c before then the contractor cannot know who it will have to terminate, or when. This will be a massive undertaking if it happens. Before 1-2-13 no contractor knows that it will have to sustain a RIF, and it does not know what projects are to be affected.”

    I thought that’s why Congress passed the law mandating that the Administration detail the sequester cuts in advance.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-14/obama-sequestration-report-warns-of-devastating-impact-of-cuts.html

    I’m not sure if the case against RIF notices is as cut and dried as DoL says. There’s also this:

    “Sequestration’s defense equation

    Sequestration’s defense equation
    By Michael Hoffman Thursday, September 6th, 2012 11:28 am

    The Pentagon’s top buyer tried to simplify sequestration planning for defense industry executives clamoring for details on the federal budget cuts that will reduce defense spending over the next decade.

    “If you want to know what will happen to your program, look at how much money you expect to have in your budget next year and cut 11 percent,” Frank Kendall, U.S. undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, told defense industry officials at the ComDef 2012 conference in Washington Wednesday.”

    http://www.dodbuzz.com/2012/09/06/sequestrations-defense-equation/

    Like

    • I thought that’s why Congress passed the law mandating that the Administration detail the sequester cuts in advance.

      I did not know this. In advance of an actual sequester? How far in advance? Announced when? That date, if it exists, could trigger RIF notice, if I were representing the contractor.

      Like

  45. Banned finally gets his own WaPo column:

    “Wary Americans saving more, even as government encourages risk
    By Danielle Douglas, Monday, October 1, 3:00 PM

    Americans are pouring record amounts of money into savings even though interest rates on those accounts are at historic lows, new federal data show, a sign that ordinary people are missing out on a booming stock market and recovering real estate sector.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/the-mattress-trap/2012/10/01/2bd72c96-0425-11e2-9b24-ff730c7f6312_story.html

    Like

  46. From Nova’s link on the debates;

    Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutesto respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.

    That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.

    It could potentially be an interesting debate on Wed. I was planning on participating in the comments at the PL because it’s usually so quiet here at night, but if anyone is interested in doing our own live commentary here I’ll stick around and participate. Let me know.

    Like

  47. Sigh. Looks like I overestimated the benefits of gridlock. Apparently letting the existing farm bill expire reverts back to a worse one from 1949 in terms of some subsidies:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/01/congress-just-let-the-farm-bill-expire-its-not-the-end-of-the-world-yet/

    Like

  48. banned

    This should end well.

    Assuming I know what you’re talking about ………………….hahahahahaha

    Like

  49. “markinaustin, on October 1, 2012 at 3:30 pm said: Edit Comment

    I thought that’s why Congress passed the law mandating that the Administration detail the sequester cuts in advance.

    I did not know this. In advance of an actual sequester? How far in advance? Announced when? That date, if it exists, could trigger RIF notice, if I were representing the contractor.”

    It was in the link. The report came out September 14th. It was mandated by a law passed on August 7th, the Sequestration Transparency Act. There’s a full OMB breakdown.

    Obama signs Sequestration Transparency Act
    By JENNIFER EPSTEIN |
    8/7/12 2:50 PM EDT

    President Obama on Tuesday signed the Sequestration Transparency Act, which requires his administration to detail just how painful the sequester’s cut will be.

    “Congress must act to avoid these devastating cuts & ask wealthiest to pay fair share,” White House deputy press secretary Amy Brundage wrote on Twitter, announcing the president’s signature.

    Obama had until Wednesday to sign the bill, which passed the Senate by unanimous consent and cleared the House in a 414-2 vote. The Obama administration must lay out specifics about the $1.2 trillion in cuts to domestic and defense programs that will take place at the start of 2013 if Congress is unable to agree on another deficit-reduction plan before the end of the year.

    http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/obama-signs-sequestration-transparency-act-131356.html

    “Obama releases sequestration report

    By Amber Corrin
    Sep 14, 2012

    The Obama administration has released its mandated report on how sequestration may be implemented, outlining in a nearly 400-page document detailed plans for cutting federal spending by $1.2 trillion.

    The Office of Management and Budget released the report Sept. 14, a week later than the deadline set by the Sequestration Transparency Act. It includes line-by-line detail on more than 1,200 budget accounts, breaking down what is exempt from sequestration and what’s not.”

    http://fcw.com/articles/2012/09/14/obama-administration-sequestration-plan-released.aspx

    Like

  50. Good piece by Mohamed A. El-Erian on QE Infinity:

    “What the Fed’s Historic Bet Means for You
    By Mohamed A. El-Erian

    Oct 1 2012, 1:51 PM ET”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/what-the-feds-historic-bet-means-for-you/263094/

    Like

  51. Full Sequester OMB Report link:

    Click to access Combined_STAReport_Watermark.pdf

    Like

    • Full Sequester OMB Report

      While a RIF notice would not be required, reading pp. 57-62 there could be some contractors who might know what they were faced with. A RIF notice can be rescinded, of course. For most, this is not specific in the way contractors would need to know: which projects are being cut?

      Like

  52. American Express may owe some of us money

    Lulu–

    I was planning on doing the debate thing on the PL, but it might be more fun here. The jumping box over there will probably be driving us all bonkers!

    Like

  53. The actual, literal trolling may be intolerable as well, especially given the recent increase in the use of multiple identities.

    Like

  54. “SPRINGFIELD — A closer look at the state’s FY2012 budget is prompting new questions about whether Illinois could seek a federal bailout on pensions. The debate concerns a line in the FY2012 budget proposal that says “significant long-term improvements will come only from additional pension reforms, refinancing the liability and seeking a federal guarantee of the debt.”

    Some suggest Illinois’ mounting pension debt could make the state a prime candidate for a bailout. Critics, however, say other states should not have to chip in. Governor Quinn’s office was not available for comment, but has reportedly said Illinois does not plan to turn to Washington to fix pensions.”

    . . . until after the elections .

    Like

  55. Okay, that’s four of us potentially. No reason we can’t go back and forth a little. I’ll put up an open post earlier in the day and schedule it for that night. We’re meeting with our tax guy that afternoon (OMG, OMG, OMG) but I’ll be back in time for the debate. Hopefully we’ll have enough commenters to make it worthwhile.

    Like

  56. lms

    Tell him you want to do the Caymans thing, but literally not just the bank accounts.

    Like

  57. Hmm.

    “JPMorgan Chase Lawsuit By New York AG A First For White House Task Force
    Posted: 10/01/2012 6:02 pm EDT Updated: 10/01/2012 6:05 pm EDT

    New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has sued JPMorgan Chase over mortgage-backed securities related to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a tweet by CNBC.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/01/jpmorgan-chase-lawsuit-new-york-ag-white-house_n_1930678.html

    Like

  58. I don’t think he’s smart enough to figure that out banned, but he’s a nice guy with a few good ideas and cheap. BTW, we’re still sitting on our money in the stock market, I have one company (oil) that bounces up and down about 10 points and every time it’s down I buy a few more shares.

    Like

  59. “NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman on Monday filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co for fraud over faulty mortgage-backed securities packaged and sold by the former Bear Stearns.

    The lawsuit alleged a “systematic abandonment of underwriting guidelines” in the selling of home loans that went into securities peddled by Bear Stearns. JPMorgan acquired Bear Stearns in 2008, at the start of the financial crisis.”

    Well at least that Federal Task Force was a good applause line in the State of the Union!

    Like

  60. lms

    You mean you don’t believe in one million electric vehciles by 2015?

    Like

  61. banned

    Nope, I have the inside scoop. Our daughter begins working in the industry on November 29th.

    Like

  62. “WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Supreme Court seemed skeptical on Monday of allowing victims of human rights abuses to sue in American courts against the foreign corporations accused of aiding in the atrocities.

    But in oral arguments in one of the court’s biggest human rights cases in years, some justices suggested they might not close U.S. courts to similar claims against individuals, including those who take refuge in the United States, or to claims involving U.S. companies.

    In the case, the first of the court’s new term, 12 Nigerians accused Anglo-Dutch oil company Royal Dutch Shell Plc of complicity in a violent crackdown on protesters by military ruler Sani Abacha from 1992 to 1995.

    Esther Kiobel filed her suit in 2002 on behalf of victims including her husband, Barinem, who was executed in 1995.

    Her case was based on a 1789 law known as the Alien Tort Statute that had been dormant for nearly two centuries before lawyers began using it in the 1980s to bring international human rights cases in U.S. courts.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/human-rights-focus-u-supreme-court-060109012–finance.html

    Sometimes sanity wins one . . . we hope.

    Like

  63. jnc

    especially given the recent increase in the use of multiple identities.

    Yes, I’ve noticed that. Seems that someone is unraveling or something. Signing in under numerous handles all at the same time, recommending his own posts under each name, and assuming he’s fooling everyone. Have you seen the latest, a riff on Liam’s name. There’s no love lost between Liam and I but sheesh…………….

    Like

  64. “bannedagain5446, on October 1, 2012 at 4:24 pm said:

    “NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman on Monday filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co for fraud over faulty mortgage-backed securities packaged and sold by the former Bear Stearns.

    The lawsuit alleged a “systematic abandonment of underwriting guidelines” in the selling of home loans that went into securities peddled by Bear Stearns. JPMorgan acquired Bear Stearns in 2008, at the start of the financial crisis.”

    Well at least that Federal Task Force was a good applause line in the State of the Union!”

    Banned – Interesting choice of initial litigation. No good deed goes unpunished.

    As a reminder from four years ago:

    “The Banker Who Saved Wall Street
    Sep 10, 2009 8:00 PM EDT
    How JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon bailed out Bear Stearns and the federal government—and lived to turn a profit.

    On the morning of Sept. 18, 2008, the phone rang in Jamie Dimon’s office on the 48th floor of JPMorgan Chase’s New York headquarters. It was Hank Paulson, the secretary of the Treasury, who for the second time in six months had a pressing question: would Dimon be interested in acquiring the floundering investment bank Morgan Stanley—at no cost whatsoever?

    The call came at a tumultuous moment. Stocks had fallen 27 percent between Aug. 29 and Sept. 10. Lehman Brothers had already failed, Merrill Lynch had been sold to Bank of America, and AIG had received an emergency loan of $85 billion from the federal government. The only remaining question was whether it would be Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs to fail next. The government was desperately seeking to stave off a total wipeout of Wall Street. And here was Paulson offering Dimon the chance to own Morgan Stanley for absolutely nothing. At the government’s urging, Dimon had agreed to take over Bear Stearns in March in a whirlwind 48-hour deal, a transaction that established Dimon as the government’s banker of last resort. “Some are coming to Washington for help,” Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., later said. “Others are coming to Washington to help.”

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/09/10/the-banker-who-saved-wall-street.html

    Next time, get the waiver of liability up front.

    Like

  65. jnc:

    Mr. Lewis, paging Mr. Ken Lewis.

    (everything Paulson knew he learned at Goldman . .. shudder)

    Like

  66. Mr. Lewis, paging Mr. Ken Lewis.

    And THAT one will leave a mark.

    Like

  67. buuubbububububut you said I was a “made” guy Mr. Paulson, Why are you pointing that gun at me and telling me to get in the car?

    Like

  68. This can’t be good.

    The Romney campaign is experiencing what some officials believe could be the beginning of a mass exodus of big money donors diverting their cash away from the Republican presidential hopeful and toward Republican candidates for the House and Senate races more likely to win in November, the FOX Business Network has learned.

    The trend isn’t at the acute stage, at least not yet, said one person with direct knowledge of the matter. This person, a major player in Romney’s New York fundraising circles, confirmed to FOX Business that a few New York donors have backed away from financial commitments to the Romney campaign and instead said they will spend their money to help the Republicans hold on to the House of Representatives, and pick up seats in the Senate.

    But another person with direct knowledge of the matter says the trend, though nascent, is more geographically broad based, and reflects an increasing degree of anxiety both with what they believe is the tentative nature of the Romney campaign, and recent poll numbers that show President Obama with a lead, particularly in key battleground states, that some Republican contributors are starting to believe is insurmountable.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/government/2012/10/01/big-money-donors-toward-house-senate-races/#ixzz286MmQIwA

    Like

Leave a reply to ScottC Cancel reply