All Things in Moderation

Morning Report 5/21/12

13 Responses

1. 

   Brent Nyitray, on May 21, 2012 at 7:49 am said:

   I wonder if Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule prevent underwriters from supporting the stock.

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2. 

   Mike, on May 21, 2012 at 8:18 am said:

   Brent:
   What, you didn’t read all 2000 pages of Dodd-Frank? 🙂

   OT (SCOTUS news):

   Clapper v. Amnesty International was granted cert. today (Clapper is about Article III standing and prospective relief for surveillance of international communications). It is relevant to our previous discussion about the Hedges lawsuit on indefinite detention.

   And Astrue v. Capato was decided (SS benefits for children conceived after the father’s death — another of our previous discussions). Third Circuit is reversed — the children are not eligible for SS benefits from the deceased father.

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3. 

   bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 8:20 am said:

   Looks like JPM is going to lose the whole position somewhere just under 5 billion

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4. 

   bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 8:21 am said:

   JNC might win the bet yet. They started discussing the erubonds this weekend at the G-8

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5. 

   bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 8:22 am said:

   Scott:

   speaking of eurobonds, could you give me some idea how diffiuclt it would be to price them as replacements for current soverign debt?

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6. 

   jnc4p, on May 21, 2012 at 10:39 am said:

   “bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 8:21 am said: Edit Comment
   JNC might win the bet yet. They started discussing the erubonds this weekend at the G-8”

   To be clear, my bet was/is that Germany will never agree to issue Eurobonds to backstop Greek debt. They may be convinced to do so for Spain & Italy after Greece leaves/is kicked out of the Eurozone.

   The German public will not go along with higher taxes to subsidize Greeks retiring at an earlier age than the Germans themsleves do.

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7. 

   bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 11:24 am said:

   jnc:

   See i was giving you more credit that you deserve! So you’re sure that Greece is a goner then?

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8. 

   Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on May 21, 2012 at 11:53 am said:

   Jnc4p,

   At one time I would have agreed with you, but the German history of the Euro is one of never having majority support among the electorate. As a result, the electorate has never voted on it. I’m not really convinced that the electorate even punished the part[ies] responsible. While I think Greece will leave the Euro, I wouldn’t be surprised by Eurobonds either because the German electorate will not (be allowed) to vote on it.

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9. 

   jnc4p, on May 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm said:

   My reading of German media (Bild, etc) is that any “bailout” of Greece that goes beyond loans that (theoretically) will have to be paid back is a nonstarter. My impression was that this opinion was pretty broadly shared across the political spectrum there.

   Banned, I believe that the best thing for Greece and the EU (at the expense of the German & French banks) is for Greece to leave the Euro and default. Bank bailouts should be done directly by the national governments that have regulatory authority over them, not indirectly by laundering the money through the ECB and sovereign debt. Going forward, the Greeks should not expect to be paid in Deutschemarks for working like Greeks.

   The main thing I take away from the Euro situation is how underappeciated the old exchange rates were as a subtle pricing mechanism between different economies.

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10. 

    novahockey, on May 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm said:

    Do you speak German, jnc? I studied it in high school and college, but it’s been a long time.

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11. 

    bannedagain5446, on May 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm said:

    jnc:

    I was wrong in the fall on the intervention of the IMF so what do I know? But I’m not so sure that some rescue, disguised as a non-resuce might not still be in the offing.

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12. 

    jnc4p, on May 21, 2012 at 12:14 pm said:

    “Libertarian Extremists” strike again! This time in Virginia where the governor signs a law preventing the state police from being used to arrest or detain American citizens who haven’t actually been charged with or suspected of committing a crime (as definined as an actual enacted statute).

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bob-mcdonnells-national-security-problem/2012/05/21/gIQAsXCdfU_story.html

    Great quote:

    “Far from fighting this bill, McDonnell’s office issued a statement on passage expressing the governor’s “shared concern that Virginia does not participate in the unconstitutional detention of U.S. citizens.” Of course, there have been no “unconstitutional detentions of U.S. citizens” ”

    And why have there been no “unconstitutional detentions of U.S. citizens”? Because the Obama administration prefers “unconstitutional assassinations of U.S. citizens”.

    Presumably a bill that forbade state troopers from shooting on sight American citizens charged with terrorism would be too much for Theissen as well.

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13. 

    jnc4p, on May 21, 2012 at 12:16 pm said:

    “novahockey, on May 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm said:
    Do you speak German, jnc? I studied it in high school and college, but it’s been a long time.”

    High school and college as well, but I rely on translations for anything more sophisticated than buying beer or finding the bathroom.

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