Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1377.0 | 2.1 | 0.15% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2359.4 | -33.1 | -1.38% |
| Oil (WTI) | 102.05 | -0.4 | -0.40% |
| LIBOR | 0.4692 | 0.000 |
0.00%
|
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.863 | 0.130 | 0.16% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.05% | 0.00% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 170.57 | 0.0 |
Markets are generally weaker as Europe plays catch-up with the US markets. US bonds and MBS are flat. Spanish yields are 17 basis points higher on no major economic news. An unexpected drop in imports pushed the Chinese trade balance into a surplus and is flashing warning signs about Chinese domestic demand.
With Greece temporarily off the front pages, all eyes turn to Spain. The new Spanish government is determined to implement austerity measures and reduce the budget deficit by almost 2/3 in 2013. Spain had a massive property bubble, which has weakened their banking system considerably. The banks are thought to be marking their real estate portfolios and mortgage bonds at unrealistic levels.
One powerful method of clearing the excess housing inventory is the short sale, and often times it is a lengthy, painful process as banks and other creditors drag their feet, hoping for better prices. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has introduced legislation to force banks to make a decision within 75 days of a request from a homeowner.
Bloomberg has been tracking a story about J.P. Morgan’s massive credit default swap positions in their Treasury department, which is raising questions about Dodd-Frank and proprietary trading versus hedging. The trader, Bruno Iksil, has been selling protection on an index of investment-grade bonds (Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Series 9) and is thought to have sold $100 billion worth of protection on the index. This is the trade that blew up AIG and I cannot imagine what it possibly could be hedging. As a bank, JP Morgan generally makes loans so it makes money if US corporations generally do well, and poorly when US corporations don’t do well. Selling protection is the exact same bet. The article goes on to speculate that this may be part of a spread trade, but even then a spread trade is a speculative position, not a hedge. Anyway, regulators and politicians seem to be lining up against this trade, and if JP Morgan is forced out, they will undoubtedly pay dearly to exit.
Chart: Spanish 10-year government bond yields
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Well there’s an ego boost — comment of the day.
thanks, I think
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nova:
thanks, I think
I figured that, if someone famous had said it, I would have already posted it, so it deserved to be up there.
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David Brooks’ piece on the bifurcated economy is worth a read:
“The Two Economies
By DAVID BROOKS
Published: April 9, 2012”
…
“If Cowen’s case is right, the U.S. is not a nation in decline. We may be in the early days of an export boom that will eventually power an economic revival, including a manufacturing revival. But, as Cowen emphasizes, this does not mean nirvana is at hand.
His work leaves the impression that there are two interrelated American economies. On the one hand, there is the globalized tradable sector — companies that have to compete with everybody everywhere. These companies, with the sword of foreign competition hanging over them, have become relentlessly dynamic and very (sometimes brutally) efficient.
On the other hand, there is a large sector of the economy that does not face this global competition — health care, education and government. Leaders in this economy try to improve productivity and use new technologies, but they are not compelled by do-or-die pressure, and their pace of change is slower.
A rift is opening up. The first, globalized sector is producing a lot of the productivity gains, but it is not producing a lot of the jobs. The second more protected sector is producing more jobs, but not as many productivity gains. The hypercompetitive globalized economy generates enormous profits, while the second, less tradable economy is where more Americans actually live.
In politics, we are beginning to see conflicts between those who live in Economy I and those who live in Economy II. Republicans often live in and love the efficient globalized sector and believe it should be a model for the entire society. They want to use private health care markets and choice-oriented education reforms to make society as dynamic, creative and efficient as Economy I.
Democrats are more likely to live in and respect the values of the second sector. They emphasize the destructive side of Economy I streamlining — the huge profits at the top and the stagnant wages at the middle. They want to tamp down some of the streamlining in the global economy sector and protect health care, education and government from its remorseless logic.
Republicans believe the globalized sector is racing far out in front of government, adapting in ways inevitable and proper. If given enough freedom, Economy I entrepreneurs will create the future jobs we need. Government should prepare people to enter that sector but get out of its way as much as possible.
Democrats are more optimistic that government can enhance the productivity of the global sectors of the economy while redirecting their benefits. They want to use Economy I to subsidize Economy II. ”
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Based on the excerpt the 2 economies theory is interesting, but Brooks stretches it excessively to fit partisans into one or the other economy.
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JPM is probably not very worried. They haven’t even begun the “investigation” promised by the president in the SOTUS yet.
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Scott
You know I respect your intellect and will even confess to a certain intimidation at
debating you…do you mind if I tee one up to make your morning. If this is construed
as “baiting” I’m probably guilty…but I hope you realize it’s not baiting with malice or
even to make a point. It’s actually more to get “your” side of the picture.
We hear so much about socialism in this country..most of it misinformed of course..we do have our own propaganda as do all the other nations. I’m not surprised by the most recent list of happiest countries where again the U.S. fails to break to break the top ten while the socialist countries always rank near the top. I concede at the outset that these nations are small, homogeneous, and do not have our challenges…e.g. spending as much on defense as perhaps the rest of the world combined..it’s close.
We have doubled defense spending in a single decade…these small nations can be said to be subsidized by our defense and I accept that.
But this is a story that truly surprised even me, a progressive who is pretty opened minded when it comes to Euro socialism. And it comes from INC magazine which can hardly be considered leftist propaganda. It’s a four pager..I’ll excerpt just a bit..with a highlighted portion that pretty much delineates where you and I differ…hopefully respectfully. It’s a story about entrepreneurs in Norway and the growing number of millionaires. Shows my own ignorance I had not realized such a thing was possible in a Scandinavian socialist country.
http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/in-norway-start-ups-say-ja-to-socialism.html
In Norway, Start-ups Say Ja to Socialism
We venture to the very heart of the hell that is Scandinavian socialism—and find out that it’s not so bad. Pricey, yes, but a good place to start and run a company…
In 1998, Dalmo quit his job, bought a used pickup truck, and started calling on clients as an independent contractor. By year’s end, he had six employees, all mechanics, and he was making more money than he ever had. Within three years, his new company, Momek, was booking more than $1 million a year in revenue and quickly expanding into new lines of business………
…….This is exactly the kind of pride I often hear from the CEOs I have met while working at Inc., but for one important difference: Whereas most entrepreneurs in Dalmo’s position develop a retching distaste for paying taxes, Dalmo doesn’t mind them much. “The tax system is good—it’s fair,” he tells me. “What we’re doing when we are paying taxes is buying a product. So the question isn’t how you pay for the product; it’s the quality of the product.” Dalmo likes the government’s services, and he believes that he is paying a fair price.
This is particularly surprising, because the prices Dalmo pays for government services are among the highest in the world.
Scott I know your style…deliberate and well thought out and delivered in dispassionate fashion. I’m not concerned about your response….but…
If anybody else wishes to weigh in fine…but remember it’s not my intention to aggravate you…just to get you thinking…apologies if I’ve failed.
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ruk:
I am not sure what you are asking me. Am I surprised that there’s a Norwegian millionaire who likes high tax rates? No. Even here in America we have millionaire’s, nay billionaires, who advocate for higher tax rates.
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” This is particularly surprising, because the prices Dalmo pays for government services are among the highest in the world.”
Dalmo is also receiving more services. As he said, he thinks he gets good value for his kroner. In this country, there is widespread belief that we do not get good value for our dollars. If you think the product is crap, any price is too high. Perhaps a good question for such folks is whether they can point to an example of a better deal somewhere else.
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Ruk:
A couple of points:
1. My observation is that the charge of “socialism” in the United States political lexicon is ofted conflated with general advocacy of wealth redistribution. “Socialism” is about as misused as charges of “fascism” once were. The same also applies anytime someone on the left trots out “The Handmaiden’s Tale” as an example of what the religious right actually believes and is advocating for.
2. “Dalmo likes the government’s services, and he believes that he is paying a fair price.”
Herein lies part of your explanation. This attitude is due to the smaller size and culturally humogeous nature of the individual European countries. It is clearly breaking down when applied to an entitity of compariable size and diversity as the United States, i.e. the EU. See the German and to a lesser extent French resentment at being asked to bail out Greece and the other PIIGS countries. This mirrors in some ways the arguments trotted out about blue states “subsidizing” red states. A penetrating second question would have been to ask Dalmo how much he likes paying higher taxes to bail out Greece.
In addition, with polling results showing trust in the U.S. government at historicly low levels, you aren’t going to see similar attitudes broadly adopted in the United States until government reforms are enacted.
http://www.people-press.org/2010/04/18/public-trust-in-government-1958-2010/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/5392/trust-government.aspx
See also Stanley Greenberg:
“GOVERNMENT operates by the wrong values and rules, for the wrong people and purposes, the Americans I’ve surveyed believe. Government rushes to help the irresponsible and does little for the responsible.”
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One last point:
“The tax system is good—it’s fair”
If you were to poll Americans of all political stripes, I suspect that “good” and “fair” would rank dead last in words chosen to express their opinion of the current system of taxation in this country.
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Ezra Klein on the current state of the Senate budget is an amusing read:
“Wonkbook: Senate Democrats inching towards a budget
Posted by Ezra Klein at 08:03 AM ET, 04/10/2012”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-senate-democrats-inching-towards-a-budget/2012/04/10/gIQALNJv7S_blog.html
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blowout bad day we were due.
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” “The Handmaiden’s Tale”
I love a good dystopia — but this one just stunk.
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If anybody has seen Mr. Ben Bernanke, please ask him to respond immediately to the control room. We seem to have a slight malfunction in one of the cooling towers!
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in funny news that i would never post on a more public forum, I have some leveraged short options that expire this week. As of yesterday they were up about 200%, so not wanting to be caught off guard by a Bernanke comment from nowhere, I sold at COB.
Looking at the tape, now you know the rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say.
Things may never be as bad as they seem, but sometimes that’s the way to bet
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“As of yesterday they were up about 200%, so not wanting to be caught off guard by a Bernanke comment from nowhere, I sold at COB. ”
I would say that this was a good choice.
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jnc:
Greed is good!
Btw gold is up today on the expectation that your methadone might be in the mail.
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Scott and JNC
Thanks for your input..it is sincerely appreciated.
I agree with you JNC…determining the reasons there is such a different view of Gov’t in our country than the Scandinavian ones is a complex subject which could probably debated all day. Perhaps part propaganda…we have been taught that Gov’t=evil
Free enterprise = good…part of it as you point out and I’ve conceded the fact they are largely homogeneous populations and partly because their governments are more efficient than our government and do a far better job…and that’s just a start..but I do appreciate your thoughts.
Scott..
I am not sure what you are asking me.
Because in rereading my post I realized that what I was actually asking is for you to explain MY ignorance. LMAO.. You take Scandinavian millionaires and entrepreneurs for granted because of your travels and life in Europe.
Perhaps in addition I was seeking what JNC offered…but I can say without snark that it truly isn’t YOUR responsibility to explain MY ignorance.
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Santorum’s gone. finally
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he’s only in suspended animation, like Pat Buchanan
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“ruk, on April 10, 2012 at 12:23 pm said:
…
Perhaps part propaganda…we have been taught that Gov’t=evil
Free enterprise = good…part of it as you point out and I’ve conceded the fact they are largely homogeneous populations and partly because their governments are more efficient than our government and do a far better job…and that’s just a start..but I do appreciate your thoughts.”
What I find is that stark differences such as this often have unspoken trade-offs. For example, how difficult is it to emmigrate to Norway and become a citizen and eligable for these benefits? I suspect that a rich state like say Connecticut could implement a very high level of public services, if they were allowed to put very restritive terms on who was permitted to move to Connecticut.
See Paul Krugman:
“On the other side, however, open immigration can’t coexist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure health care and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/the-curious-politics-of-immigration/
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MarkinAustin, Matt Taibbi shares your concerns on the JOBS act:
“Why Obama’s JOBS Act Couldn’t Suck Worse
POSTED: April 9, 11:53 AM ET
Boy, do I feel like an idiot. I’ve been out there on radio and TV in the last few months saying that I thought there was a chance Barack Obama was listening to the popular anger against Wall Street that drove the Occupy movement, that decisions like putting a for-real law enforcement guy like New York AG Eric Schneiderman in charge of a mortgage fraud task force meant he was at least willing to pay lip service to public outrage against the banks.
Then the JOBS Act happened.
The “Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act” (in addition to everything else, the Act has an annoying, redundant title) will very nearly legalize fraud in the stock market.”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/why-obamas-jobs-act-couldnt-suck-worse-20120409
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JNC, I am surprised that Brent has not commented on this. I think scam IPOs are going to result. I really do.
I think you posted the Brooks column. That DB did not include retail, services, and construction in his list of non-global activities seems to me an attempt to skew the conversation to fit his predisposition, as Brian suggested.
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jnc:
He’s a good writer, but he’s a bit overwrought on this one. For instance:
“Even worse, the JOBS Act, incredibly, will allow executives to give “pre-prospectus” presentations to investors using PowerPoint and other tools in which they will not be held liable for misrepresentations. These firms will still be obligated to submit prospectuses before their IPOs, and they’ll still be held liable for what’s in those. But it’ll be up to the investor to check and make sure that the prospectus matches the “pre-presentation.””
If you’re getting a pre IPO presentation, you’re one of the looters, not the looted.
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Recent David Stockman interview:
“March 2, 2012 12:38 PM
Why David Stockman isn’t buying it”
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-57389481/why-david-stockman-isnt-buying-it/
I found this to be an interesting quote:
“Here’s the heart of the matter. The Fed is a patsy. It is a pathetic dependent of the big Wall Street banks, traders and hedge funds. Everything (it does) is designed to keep this rickety structure from unwinding. If you had a (former Fed Chairman) Paul Volcker running the Fed today 78 – utterly fearless and independent and willing to scare the hell out of the market any day of the week – you wouldn’t have half, you wouldn’t have 95 percent, of the speculative positions today.”
I wonder how some of our traders here would adjust their behavior if Paul Volker was suddenly appointed Fed Chairman instead of Bernanke.
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And another one:
“David Stockman on Crony Capitalism
Saturday, 21 January 2012 17:28 By Bill Moyers, Moyers & Co. | Interview and Video ”
…
“What do you mean by crony capitalism?
DAVID STOCKMAN: Crony capitalism is about the aggressive and proactive use of political resources, lobbying, campaign contributions, influence-peddling of one type or another to gain something from the governmental process that wouldn’t otherwise be achievable in the market. And as the time has progressed over the last two or three decades, I think it’s gotten much worse. Money dominates politics.
And as a result, we have neither capitalism or democracy. We have some kind of —
BILL MOYERS: What do we have?
DAVID STOCKMAN: We have crony capitalism, which is the worst. It’s not a free market. There isn’t risk taking in the sense that if you succeed, you keep your rewards, if you fail, you accept the consequences. Look what the bailout was in 2008.
There was clearly reckless, speculative behavior going on for years on Wall Street. And then when the consequence finally came, the Treasury stepped in and the Fed stepped in. Everything was bailed out and the game was restarted. And I think that was a huge mistake.”
http://truth-out.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=6204:david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism
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@Mark, I guess if the individual state blue-sky laws still apply (and I don’t see why they wouldn’t) then I am not sure how much actually changes. That said, IMO crowd-sourcing is correcting a non-existing problem – that start-ups are starved for capital because VC firms are constrained by insufficient capital. Capital is plentiful, but investors are risk-averse. Allowing mom and pop investors to write a $100,000 check to get in on the ground floor isn’t going to change that.
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Thanks, Brent. Invoking state blue sky law is probably easier in some states than in others. I have done it successfully twice in TX, but it was like pulling teeth to encourage an agency investigation.
As of 14 years ago, the last time I did [or will ever do] this, it took filing a civil suit and getting deep into discovery and then dropping depositions on the desk of the Securities Commission investigator to get any “push”.
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jnc:
I don’t know, sort of like asking if I was Warren Buffett would I still live in Omaha!
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“determining the reasons there is such a different view of Gov’t in our country than the Scandinavian ones is a complex subject which could probably debated all day.”
i think it’s more than just a view of government, but what type of people we are. Perhaps Scandinavian’s are content with their station in life, whatever it may be. not true here. We don’t tend to think of ourselves as locked into place, which I think is the connotation that Americans have with (agree with jnc’s shorthand) “socialism.” And a lot of that has to do with our collective family history. My grandfathers were uneducated immigrant coal miners and steel workers. uneducated coal miners who put me through private college. how is that possible. priorities, sacrifice and 18 years of the miracle that is compound interest.
and if we do hit a rough spot, we’ll, even if it’s not accurate or realistic, (i’m paraphrasing and I don’t recall who said it) we’re just aspiring and/or down on our luck millionaires.
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“novahockey, on April 10, 2012 at 2:13 pm said:
“determining the reasons there is such a different view of Gov’t in our country than the Scandinavian ones is a complex subject which could probably debated all day.”
i think it’s more than just a view of government, but what type of people we are. Perhaps Scandinavian’s are content with their station in life, whatever it may be. ”
If you read the linked aritcle from INC, the point being made was that Norwegians (not Scandanavians. There is no such country as “Scandanavia”) have entrepreneurial rates higher than the United States, as measured by actual business startups per capita despite having a radically different approach to taxation.
This is interesting and worthy of investigation but it’s important to note the differences as well. Paul Krugman made a similar point when noting how the unemployment rate in North Dakota may be lower than the rest of the country, but that doesn’t mean that North Dakokta’s results can be replicated elsewhere given their relatively small population and resource boom.
Similarly, arguing for the success of the welfare state in “Scandanavia” as a model for the entire United States seems misplaced given that it ignores the results of countries such as Greece. You can make a better case for a more generous welfare state in a smaller, more culturally homogenous region such as say New England.
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“There is no such country as “Scandanavia”
He’s right.
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Re the study of happiness, I would also point out that the US is in a lousy place economically at the moment, while Scandinavia is not (because they had their massive real estate bubble fallout in the 90s). That is going to color the responses.
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“There is no such country as “Scandanavia”
Well that’s an unassailable fact…at least technically. There is also no country named Europe but we tend to treat Europe as a United group of nations and constantly lump them together…which is pretty amazing because I agree with JNC’s (Krugman’s) thoughts about comparing the N.D. economy to N.Y’s is foolish….but isn’t comparing Greece with the rest of Europe just as foolish? There are plenty of socialist failures
as well as socialist successes.
BTW I’m not arguing for a Euro model of socialism in this country…but I would posit that when considering things like moving tax rates back to their historic norms in our country it’s probably not the end of the world and we have a long way to go to reach Euro taxation which in those Scandanavian nations approach 50% of GDP…historically we’ve been around 18%, as high as 20% and now we are right at 15%…which if everybody is honest is the main driver of our deficit…you can’t have two wars, a major drug benefit for seniors, cut the taxes from 18% to 15% of GDP without a huge deficit.
Brent…These studies are numerous and have produced pretty much the same results before and after the crash. Perhaps we Americans are simply a grumpy, ungrateful lot and prefer to gripe more than other nations.
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“ruk, on April 10, 2012 at 2:59 pm said:
“There is no such country as “Scandanavia”
Well that’s an unassailable fact…at least technically. There is also no country named Europe but we tend to treat Europe as a United group of nations and constantly lump them together…which is pretty amazing because I agree with JNC’s (Krugman’s) thoughts about comparing the N.D. economy to N.Y’s is foolish….but isn’t comparing Greece with the rest of Europe just as foolish?”
As is using Norway’s welfare state as a model for Texas.
With regards to Europe, I believe that usefull comparisons and contrasts can be drawn with the European Union and also the Eurozone. The key is comparing apples to apples at the appropriate policy making level. For welfare state benefits, it’s the individual contries themselves.
Also worth noting is the advantages Norway retains by having their own currency and not being a part of the Eurozone.
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Worth noting with regards to global warming and climate change:
“Very few countries have cut their carbon emissions without cheating
Posted by Brad Plumer at 11:13 AM ET, 04/10/2012
Roughly speaking, there are three ways a country can curtail its global warming emissions and still grow. It can use cleaner forms of energy. It can use less energy to make the things it wants to make. Or it can outsource its dirtiest sectors — like manufacturing — abroad, to countries like China.
In the past three decades, most of the world’s wealthiest countries appear to have relied heavily on that last route. ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/few-countries-have-cut-their-carbon-emissions-without-cheating/2012/04/10/gIQAuWHG8S_blog.html
Much easier to shift a problem elsewhere than to actually solve it.
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File under “quotes to save when the Bush tax cuts are up for exipration”
“And in general, you almost always want to assess legislation against “current policy”, not “current law”; there are lots of things that legally are supposed to happen, but that everyone knows won’t, because new legislation will be passed to maintain popular tax cuts, sustain popular programs, and so on.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/another-bogus-attack-on-health-reform/
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“Brent…These studies are numerous and have produced pretty much the same results before and after the crash. Perhaps we Americans are simply a grumpy, ungrateful lot and prefer to gripe more than other nations.”
And, I would add… fat and violent, which explains our 37th ranking in worldwide health. (because we die early from diabetes and shooting each other, not because we don’t have single-payer)
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Other points worth noting: Norway’s own resource boom. And, is it easier to take a risk on a new business if the safety net is more robust? I wonder if we could divine an answer by comparing rates of business startups by state?
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Whaddya know, Alcoa turned a profit last quarter.
Brent, don’t forget heart disease — biggest killer of Americans out there (500K/yr)
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I’ve worked with a number of Scandinavians, though one would be deeply mistaken to confuse a Finn with a Swede. Attributing a lack of ambition to them would be an equally serious mistake. Two of the leading mobile phone manufactures hail from that region (Nokia is Finnish; Ericsson from Sweden). There are some leading groups in my field that hail from Linkoping. Then, there is a certain famous pop music group.
These are more homogeneous societies as well as more communitarian than the US overall. I remember my first flight into Sweden (for a friend’s wedding). I felt a bit homesick flying into Sweden (having gone to college in St. Paul, MN). I’m also from Swedish stock on my mother’s side. Little wonder that Swedes settled in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
I would put Scandinavians, or at least Finns and Swedes, in the you get what you pay for school of thought. They pay more and expect more.
BB
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BB another fairly successful Swedish company is that big box king of cheap chic, IKEA.
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Good point, Brian! I’m typing on a keyboard on an Ikea desk at the moment.
One point of clarification. I used the term communitarian. Before any dictionaries are brought out, I should note that there is a sense that government is the mechanism through which it is expressed. So, there is a higher level of taxation and a broad distribution of services. This is not to say that Americans have a lesser sense of community, but rather that it’s expressed in a different manner. Private charity vs. public entitlement.
BB
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?Because I think unwanted children are a tragic consequence for society I think the pill has been an unadulterated good for society”
Setting all else aside, this seems to imply that the pill has resulted in fewer unwanted children. I doubt very much that this is actually true in the aggregate.
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QB, I’m not “implying”. I make the inference from the known facts.
I have not interviewed the families, but we begin with these aggregate numbers for birth rates.
19603 4,257,850 23.7
19613 4,268,326 23.3
19623 4,167,362 22.4
19633 4,098,020 21.7
19643 4,027,490 21.0
19653 3,760,358 19.4
19663 3,606,274 18.4
19674 3,520,959 17.8
19683 3,501,564 17.5
19693 3,600,206 17.8
19703 3,731,386 18.4
19713 3,555,970 17.2
1972 3,258,411 15.6
1973 3,136,965 14.9
1974 3,159,958 14.9
1975 3,144,198 14.8
1976 3,167,788 14.8
1977 3,326,632 15.4
1978 3,333,279 15.3
1979 3,494,398 15.9
1980 3,612,258 15.9
1982 3,680,537 15.9
1983 3,638,933 15.5
1984 3,669,141 15.5
1985 3,760,561 15.8
1986 3,731,000 15.5
1987 3,829,000 15.7
1988 3,913,000 15.9
1989 4,021,000 16.2
1990 4,179,000 16.7
1991 4,111,000 16.2
1992 4,084,000 16.0
1993 4,039,000 15.7
1994 3,979,000 15.3
1995 3,892,000 14.8
1996 3,899,000 14.7
1997 3,882,000 14.5
1998 3,941,553 14.6
1999 3,959,417 14.5
2000 4,058,814 14.7
2001 4,025,933 14.1
2002 4,021,726 13.9
2003 4,089,950 14.1
2004 4,112,052 14.0
2005 4,138,349 14.0
2009 4,131,019 13.8
Read more: Live Births and Birth Rates, by Year — Infoplease.com http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html#ixzz1rjSyJdHv
I’ll dig up the Freakonomics stuff, later. You should also be able to confirm the fact of grossly fewer unwanted children from the decline of the adoption agencies. Would you infer that the bottom fell out of the gross birth rates because people who wanted to have babies were suddenly sterile? That would be interesting, and would presage the end of humankind sooner than GW.
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Mark:
I have not interviewed the families, but we begin with these aggregate numbers for birth rates.
Given the advent of legal abortion, I think pregnancy rates would be more relevant than birth rates. I have no idea what such rates would show, but it would be a better metric.
I doubt “unwanted” is a metric that has been measured, so we’d have to find a proxy. Certainly any pregnancy that was aborted could fairly be called “unwanted”. But prior to the legalization of abortion, there is no comparable proxy to indicate whether a pregnancy was wanted or not. Plus, a growth in the rate of abortions would not necessarily indicate a growth in unwanted pregnancies, as it might also just indicate a change in attitude towards the dispensation of an unwanted baby, ie an increasing willingness to abort rather than bring an unwanted baby to term.
Intuitively it makes sense that a drastic increase in the use of birth control would lower the rate of unwanted pregnancies. But it also makes sense that a drastic increase in sexual activity would increase the rate of unwanted pregnancies. And of course attitudes towards abortion would also make things more complex. It may be the case that birth control lowers the number of unwanted pregnancies, but the availability of abortion makes people less likely to use birth control, and therefore in turn increases the rate of unwanted pregnancies. I’m not sure how one would measure all of these effects.
Beyond that, though, I would point out that, while a change in the rate of unwanted pregnancies would certainly be a direct effect on society of the increased use of BC, it is not the only one. For the record, I am all for birth control, and think that teh invention of the pill in particular has on the whole redounded much to the benefit of society and the culture. But I would not characterize it as an unadulterated good. (Few things are.) To think that it has not been accompanied by any negative consequences or downside at all seems to ignore a lot.
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Mark, probably not. I simply think that your conclusion is a leap of logic to a dubious value judgment, starting with equating babies unborn to children “unwanted” and the claim that such children are a tragedy. I actually find that value judgment tragic.
We have millions and millions of abortions. Infertility rates have in fact risen dramatically. Factors like STDs, abortion, delayed pregnancy are in fact believed to be factors. And yet we still have plenty of “unwanted” children, depending one what one means. Many children go unadopted today.
I simply don’t think your conclusion is sound or one to applaud.
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F.B.
My wife is from pure Finnish stock…her cousin Erika and her hubby Mats visit us from Helsinki about every five years. She works as an international rep for Nokia and does quite well. Her English is impeccable…as is that of her two kids.
I laugh when you point out the difference between Finns and Swedes. Finns do not like Swedes…Swedes are more sanguine…unless it’s a hockey game between the two countries. I remember asking some Swedish tourists on the golf course what they thought about Finns…they were basically..meh..they didn’t think about Finns much..The Finns on the other definitely think about Swedes, and not in a good way. LOL
Erika and I were having a discussion about politics and society and perhaps this anecdote reveals another reason we can’t compare countries. I told her I had just interviewed a young lady for a dental assistant position. She had four children and she was only 22, the Gov’t had just paid for her to complete dental assisting school.
I remarked..well looks like you and your husband decided to start your family early…”Oh I’m not married” she replied off handedly. Well who will take care of the kids when you’re at work? My grandparents.
Erika was horrified about the thought of a woman having a child at 14-16-18 and then again at 20 while never having been married. She said” But that’s an unfit mother in Finland we would take the children and raise them properly”.
Whew…imagine trying that here in the U.S. Of course in Finland they’re very homogeneous and none of them would think of having children without any consideration of how to raise them and provide for them.
Those cultural differences certainly help foster your “communitarian” society. They have been invaded by the Swedes and most recently and frequently by the Russians…they still have a strong sense that they are in it “together” and they are not simply a collection of individuals.
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Those numbers catch the tail end of the baby boom and the numbers preceding them are even more dramatic. For example:
1954 4,078,000 25.3
The small blip in the early 1990s (when I had my kid) is the Echo Boom as the children of the Baby Boom started their delayed families.
An old joke about teenage birth rates that I like is that nowadays we give teenagers who are having sex condoms and that back in the 50s they gave them wedding rings.
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Mark
A few legal questions. Please understand it is not my intention to litigate the Zimmerman/Martin case but rather use some examples from that case as an illustration of my questions.
Quick background..my neighborhood would be considered affluent, no gates. My wife has live in the house for over 30 years, I’ve been with her for 15 of those years. Very little crime but about 5 years ago a truly heinous crime, fortunately with no casualties but emotional wounds.
A physician and his wife live one block north of us. They had their son and two grandchildren 6-8 yrs of age visiting. One morning around 8AM they prepared to take their family to the airport for the trip home. The doc opened his garage door to load luggage, the family was wrapping up breakfast and coffee. The doc returned to his family and then once again went out to the garage where the door had now been opened about ten minutes. Two armed young black men were waiting for him and forced him back inside. The two held the entire family including the young children at gunpoint…luckily they left when they got money and nobody was hurt. You can imagine the trauma.
Against that background the physician and his wife started, and largely fund, along with donations for neighbors, a neighborhood watch program.
I sometimes get up early to get in my exercise, taking a brisk 45 minute walk around 5AM. I have been walking when the “patrol” goes by…they slow..they stare..and sometimes they even turn around at the end of the street to drive slowly by me and stare at me again. I RESENT this. I can’t even walk in my own neighborhood without these old fogies trying to stare me down. I am a white resident in a white neighborhood, I can only imagine their reaction if I was black.
Now for the questions Mark..
If I was uncouth and flipped these folks the finger, and they slowed down and opened their car window, and I began to approach..here in Florida at 5AM there is literally nothing to stop them from shooting me…LEGALLY! What happened to my constitutional rights to not be harassed? If one of them got out of the car and approached me and I was afraid…I could shoot them? But not beat the snot of them with my fists? I guess what I’m asking Mark is have we created a situation in Florida where you can stand your ground with a firearm, but not your fists?
Now a very technical legal question Mark. A key witness should Zimmerman go to trial will be the young teenage girl on the phone with Martin at the beginning of the incident. Phone records establish this fact so there is no argument there…save perhaps for precision of the timing. Of course Z’s attorneys are obligated to discredit her testimony as much as possible and I understand that.
My question…how much “coaching” of a witness is permitted under the law? Would it be different if it’s the prosecutor doing the coaching or an independent family atty hired just to protect their interests?
What if I were the Atty and I coached the young girl this way…You know they are going to try to make you look bad in court…it’s their job…but you don’t have to sit back and take it…when they start beating up on you simply remember Trayvon’s death and begin to cry…ask the attorney why Zimmerman had to leave his car and chase Trayvon with a loaded weapon? The judge will interrupt you and tell you to simply answer the questions and not to ask your own. You be sure and reply very respectfully, Yes your honor, I’m sorry, it’s just so hard..he’s gone forever…and then continue to answer the questions the best you can.
Is this an illegal tactic Mark. I’m sure the judge would have to instruct the jury to “ignore” that outburst and her question..but wouldn’t the damage be down to Z’s atty. Wouldn’t he be stuck as looking like a tremendous bully if he pressed the young girl? In short..just in terms of theatrics wouldn’t this create sympathy for the young girl and hence the prosecutors case….IF of course it ever goes to trial.
Just curious about actually litigating a case like this.
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RUK, you have a theatrical bent!
The basic human principle that governs witness preparation is that most non-professional witnesses will revert to form under the pressure of the courtroom.
The basic legal ethical principle that governs is that you cannot put your witness on to lie.
It would be difficult to script a normal teenage girl’s testimony for X-exam. The prosecutor’s job would be to understand the story from her perspective and to understand who she is, before outlining her order and etiquette of testimony. On direct, she must be comfortable with her own words telling the relevant details, and with patiently waiting for the lawyer to get to the questions in the order the lawyer has chosen.
On cross, she must first learn the opposite of the lesson you want to teach her. She must become willing to politely answer “yes”, “no”, “I don’t know” or “I don’t remember” – and to do so truthfully, even when it is personally painful to her. She must learn to wait for the prosecutor’s objection to a x-question to be ruled upon before blurting out a response. There is so much that goes into calming the witness for the most nerve-wracking of experiences that the only way your scenario comes up for a possible ride is if during the practice cross-exam in the prosecutor’s office that is how the girl reacts, naturally. Frankly, I would not want my witness to react that way, so I would never try to school her to anger. I would tell her the tears were appropriate, and her grief is nothing to be ashamed of, but that the only way the defense attorney can score any points on her truthful testimony is if the jury thinks she is vengeful. Fact is, if she is vengeful, beyond grief stricken, she is gonna need a lot of work and a lot of hand holding. It is critical that she appear a normal, healthy, happy, albeit grieving young woman, so that the jury can infer a normal, healthy, happy victim, whom they also like, because they like her.
Ashot? QB?
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A couple of years ago I noticed some suspicious youths loitering early one morning in my neighborhood. They eventually carjacked one of my neighbors. I wrote up my reaction on my blog:
http://livebythefoma.blogspot.com/2008/09/car-jack-city.html
The take-away from the cop who was taking the report was to report ANYTHING suspicious and let them check it out. It’s their job.
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From your blog entry yello:
The looked to be teenagers and were wearing the universal thug uniform of baggy white tee shirts.
That’s an interesting statement in light of the controversial hoodie comment made by Geraldo. I don’t ascribe to the notion taht there is a particular “thug uniform” whether that be a hoodie or jeans and a baggy white t-shirt. If someone makes me feel uncomfortable it has to do with a wide variety of factors that may include what they are wearing, but that would be a small factor. It is also important to note that white t-shirts are cheap and hoodies are often cheaper than heavy coats so it seems such stereotypes about thug uniforms are invariably going to result in poor people being viewed suspiciously…and more often than not for no reason.
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Ashot,
I was using a bit of code as they were also all African-American. While I live in a fairly diverse neighborhood, none of the teenagers in it regularly wear the baggy jeans/white tee shirt look to school. These kids were also out and wandering at least a half hour before the neighborhood kids start congrating for the bus.
It was just very clear that they were not local residents.
I’ve posted elsewhere that my son had a ratty gray hoodie he wore for three winters in a row every cold day. I don’t see hoodies in and of themselves emblamatic of anything.
Baltimore is one of the places where the oversized plain white tee shirt originated as an urban fashion statement:
http://www2.citypaper.com/news/story.asp?id=10381
And the inexpensiveness of them must be part of the appeal.
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It is critical that she appear a normal, healthy, happy, albeit grieving young woman, so that the jury can infer a normal, healthy, happy victim, whom they also like, because they like her.
I particularly agree with this sentiment. I would be very hesitant to instruct a witness to act a certain way. Whatever benefit could be gained by a perfect performance is far outwieghed by the much greater likelihood that it comes across as what it is….acting. That could seriously damage her credibility. I would be far more likely to instruct a witness to avoid certain behaviors than to exhibit certain behaviors or emotions. For instance I would probably instruct the girl to do her best not to get angry under any circumstances If the defense attorney wants to pick on her and abuse a grieving girlfriend, the jury will likely end up disliking that attorney and sympathizing with the girlfriend. However, if she starts getting defensive and angry they probably won’t end up liking her much.
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I was using a bit of code as they were also all African-American. While I live in a fairly diverse neighborhood, none of the teenagers in it regularly wear the baggy jeans/white tee shirt look to school.
I did not mean to really criticize you or accuse you of drawing conclusions based soley clothing. It was clear that there was a broader context which led you to be suspicious. I just thought it was an interesting comment in light of the hoodie controversey. I did notice you did not mention the race of the teenagers and I’m sure that was a choice you made for a variety of reasons.
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I did notice you did not mention the race of the teenagers and I’m sure that was a choice you made for a variety of reasons.
I’m a proponent of the Everybody’s A Little Bit Racist school of thought (please follow the link to get that obscure Broadway allusion before tirading) but I often say I am far more prejudiced against teenagers of any race than African Americans in general. To invoke the ‘cross the street’ test, I am more likely to do that for any gaggle of young males than I am for any other demographic group.
So to answer your question, the attire was more a factor in my suspicion than the race. It was my biggest clue that they did not belong there.
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Yello-
Oh…I’ve seen Avenue Q and very much enjoyed it. Although, by posting here rather than looking at porn we are going against one of their other songs.
So to answer your question, the attire was more a factor in my suspicion than the race. It was my biggest clue that they did not belong there.
Right, but there is also a broader context to that judgment about the clothing. Namely the trend in Baltimore and your location at that particular moment.
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ashot:
Although, by posting here rather than looking at porn…
Is there a law or regulation making this an either/or option? I’ve always thought both were allowable. Please advise ASAP.
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Scott-
Please advise ASAP.
You appear to be requesting legal advice. I’ll need you to sign my retention agreement.
If you’re multi-tasking….more power to you.
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Right, but there is also a broader context to that judgment about the clothing. Namely the trend in Baltimore and your location at that particular moment.
Absolutely. And in the future I will be more proactive in reporting suspicious activities.
One day I found a crack pipe on the sidewalk. I showed it to my neighbor and he suspected it belonged to a member of the moving crew who had been in the neighborhood that day. And that was by far not the most perplexing thing I have ever found on the sidewalk.
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Mark and Ashot
As always thanks for your answers. I learn a lot here….basically you’ve just restated what I’ve heard from others in your profession…”real” courtrooms do not operate like the TV and Movie courtooms. And yes Mark I do have a theatrical bent..lol..I enjoy writing fiction and this is why I went to you for a true look at what happens in the courtroom. I hadn’t realized Ashot was also an attorney…thanks to both of you for providing that lesson.
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BTW Mark I know in Texas you have similar SYG laws to here in Florida..probably written by the same policy wonk at ALEC…don’t know where you practice Ashot.
But I am concerned about my early morning 5AM walks and my legal rights..as well as those of my neighbors…Does SYG apply only to firearms…would taking a 2X4 to someone’s head if they frightened you be just as legal?
My son who alas inherited my hot Irish temper and I were playing golf last month. We were paired with a senior couple in their 70’s…really nice folks…but not the fastest players. The course was already crowded. The group behind started acting out a bit and trying to stare us down. My son IMO overeacted and challenged them. “Have you got a problem? The hot head in the group started to respond but his playing partners calmed him down, I calmed my son down, and the 72 year old lady had to calm down her 75 year old hubby a former hockey goalie not ready to take shit from anybody. As well that ends well.
But later I had to advise my son that legally in the state of Florida if my son had approached the other guy yelling and screaming the guy could have simply killed him under the current interpretation of SYG.
What say ye about these laws Mark and Ashot. Do I have it about right? Simple fear is now a reasonable cause to blow someone away with impunity?
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The internet can be used for many things such as shopping and chatting, but that is not it’s primary purpose.
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