Mourning Report

RIP Jim (Guv’nor) Marshall – the man who made heavy guitar sound so awesome

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1388.0 -5.2 -0.37%
Eurostoxx Index 2373.3 -25.1 -1.05%
Oil (WTI) 101.66 0.2 0.19%
LIBOR 0.4692 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.046 0.268 0.34%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.16% -0.06%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.92 0.3

Markets are continuing the sell-off that began when the Fed hinted that QEIII isn’t going to happen. Bonds are up over a point and MBS are up half a point. Euro sovereign yields are wider again, and you are starting to see   bids in bank credit default swaps, particularly in some of the traditional European ne’er do wells – Dexia and Intesa SanPaolo. Spain is the new one to watch.

Today is the first Thursday of the month, which means retailers are reporting same store sales for March. Generally, they appear to be strong, particularly in department stores and Men’s / Women’s apparel. Discounters and Teen Apparel were weaker with some exceptions (Zumiez and Target).  Overall, the numbers look good and a few took up Q1 earnings estimates. The “yes. but…” is that March had some unseasonably warm weather, and that undoubtedly helped get people out of the house and into the stores.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 357k.  Continuing Claims were 3,338k.

REO asset managers may want to watch this developing situation – allegations of discrimination regarding the maintenance and upkeep of homes in minority neighborhoods. The National Fair Housing Alliance put out a report alleging that REO properties in predominantly minority neighborhoods lack “for sale” signs, have boarded-up windows, and trash, as opposed to REO in white neighborhoods. This study was put out with a grant from HUD and will undoubtedly be fodder for a lawsuit.

The US is far behind on reforming the country’s housing finance system, Geithner said at a speech at the Chicago Economic Club. The reality is that our current housing finance system is more or less nationalized and we are far from being in the position to have private capital carry the load.

The Census Bureau released a study discussing the changes in growth patterns since 2010.  Interestingly, of the 50 fastest-growing metro areas over the last decade, only 24 were still in the top fifty since the 2010 census. Unsurprisingly, the areas most affected by the real estate boom fell out (Las Vegas, Palm Coast FL) fell out of the top 50 and it appears some of the energy-centric areas (TX, ND) are entering.

9 Responses

  1. Davis Polk, a large law firm that caters to Wall Street, wrote in a recent note to clients that the JOBS Act represented “the most significant legislative loosening in memory of restrictions around the I.P.O. process and public company reporting obligations.”

    Whatever happened to lawyer-client confidentiality?

    Oh. Wait. There are other possible explanations.

    1] This was never meant to be confidential. Or

    2] An administrative assistant with access to the a client’s mail [or email] revealed the note.

    I continue to think the “loosening” is an invitation to massive fraud. We did not invent our state and federal blue sky laws overnight. They were born in pain.

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  2. Brent, my sympathies.

    Mark, lots of loose talk that Obama got a leak on the SC decision. I tend to go with the Taranto version that he needs to look like a fighter to his base, not a loser.

    Could Kagen and/or a clerk let slip with last Fridays vote?

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  3. Brent, what’s the “O” in REO?

    Thanks!

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  4. Real Estate Owned. After the foreclosures has been completed and title has transferred to the bank

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  5. I have a friend of long standing, Fred Strong. We played City League softball on the same team in 70-71 and have had breakfast, with four other old guys, every Friday since God invented pico de gallo. Fred is two years older than I.

    Fred and his late wife were pillars of the Clarksville community – the long time integrated part of old west Austin. They raised kids and sent them to college, and in one case, to med school. They were instrumental in raising one grandson, [who

    played wideout for OU, Okie]. They lived in a 2-1 cottage. Well, Mattie pushed Fred to buy one of the big shiny new 4-3s built in gentrifying old east Austin. They bought the first one completed. Then Mattie died. The rest of the subdivision never got completed – skeletons with roofs housing bums and druggies. Fred cannot afford to sell the house, for which he paid cash, and move back to west Austin, b/c it is no longer marketable. So he built a chain link fence around it and topped it with barbed wire and sits on his porch on weekends with his shotgun.

    The houses around his are REO.

    He will shoot anyone who tries to climb the fence.

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  6. Didn’t know this was possible:

    “SHELL WEIGHS NATURAL GAS-TO-DIESEL PROCESSING FACILITY FOR LOUISIANA/WSJ — Russell Gold: “Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A 68.75 -0.31 (-0.45%) ] is considering building a giant plant in Louisiana that would convert natural gas into diesel fuel, several people familiar with the company’s plans said. The plant, which could cost more than $10 billion, would be similar in size to Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in the Mideast nation of Qatar, the people said. Pearl, which went into operation last June, turns natural gas into enough diesel to fill more than 160,000 cars a day.”

    That’s why I’m currently a buyer of nat gas though. The low prices are luring users in at the same time producers are shutting down. Crunch time (hopefully) in 9-18 months!

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  7. Weird rumor:

    “DELTA EYEING CONOCOPHILLIPS REFINERY FOR MORE THAN $100 MILLION/CNBC.com — Kate Kelly & Phil LeBeau: “Delta Air Lines [DAL 10.29 -0.19 (-1.81%) ] is in advanced talks to purchase an East Coast oil refinery for more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter. The refinery, a ConocoPhillips [COP 75.32 -0.86 (-1.13%) ] facility in Trainer, Penn., has the capacity to refine 185,000 barrels of oil per day, according to industry officials. It is one of two refineries in the Philadelphia vicinity that are currently for sale. Delta’s potential purchase of the Conoco plant, which the people familiar with the matter say has yet to be finalized, would be a first such deal for an airline.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46959405

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  8. Another tragic senseless economic theory war in which thousands of innocent economists will be torn from their offices and dragged into the fray at what cost to society? Meanwhile, you sit back and do nothing!

    “Paul Krugman vs. MMT: The Great Debate”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46944145

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  9. Funny take on the GSA scandal’s effects:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-word-that-must-not-be-spoken/2012/04/04/gIQAmuR3vS_story.html?wpisrc=nl_fedinsider

    George, knowing the straw vote at the conference is every Court observer’s dream. But even conference votes change, in close cases.

    John, Krug v. MMT was superb.

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