Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1363.6 | 3.9 | 0.29% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2532.8 | -17.4 | -0.68% |
| Oil (WTI) | 105.04 | 1.8 | 1.74% |
| LIBOR | 0.4926 | -0.001 | -0.10% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.145 | 0.005 | 0.01% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.03% | 0.03% |
We have a deal in Greece. Bondholders had to take a slightly bigger haircut – 53% vs 50% already agreed to. The $170 billion will be more than enough for Greece to meet its payment at the end of March. The Eurostoxx index is down slightly on the news – another case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
Are we out of the woods with Greece? No. Greece intends to hold elections in the next few months, and there is nothing preventing a new government from undoing all of the austerity measures imposed for this deal.
The Chicago Fed released its National Activity Index this morning. It came in at .22, which indicates the economy is growing faster than its historical trend. An index value of zero means the economy is growing at its historical trend. Employment and Production were large positive components, while Consumption and Housing were negative components. December was revised higher as well.
The Home Despot reported better than expected earnings this morning, which should be another positive indicator for housing and the economy. Macy’s also reported a strong holiday selling season.
Economic data on tap this week: Existing Home Sales on Wed, Initial Jobless Claims on Thurs, New Home Sales on Fri.
Filed under: Earnings Announcements, Economic data, Greece |
All Things in Moderation 
Greece will either need another bailout or will default before the end of this year.
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John, don’t you think that by choosing to not cut Greece off, the EU is signalling that it will muddle along? Probably revisit this every so often, and kick it down the road?
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I think I can safely say that I was one of the earliest arrivals to the economic recovery party. Now, I’m looking for the bedroom where they put the guests’ hats and coats.
Without a sea change in oil and gasoline prices, We’ll be holding an Irish wake for the recovery by sometime this summer. Let the keening begin.
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mark:
Yes, they could do so if they choose. That’s why I pointed out the possibility of yet another bailout later this year. I have moved however to the camp that now believes the Germans really want a default, having wrung everything they could possibly gain from the crisis.
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banned, why your change in attitude toward the recovery? (I’ve been hit-and-miss here of late, so apologies if this has been previously discussed.)
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The world economy runs on oil, period. Any price shock or disruption to supply, even if realtively temporary will kill the optimism that things are getting better.
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” The Home Despot reported better than expected earnings this morning, which should be another positive indicator for housing and the economy.”
You’re welcome. But my project is winding down, so reset expectations for next quarter appropriately.
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” We’ll be holding an Irish wake for the recovery by sometime this summer. Let the keening begin.”
Aren’t Irish wakes just a continuation of the party?
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bsimon:
Aren’t Irish wakes just a continuation of the party?
Yes. As the old joke goes, the only difference between an Irish wake and an Irish wedding is one less drunken Irishman.
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Yes, and for those that have money, the party will continue on as it always does.
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good call on oil, john
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Headline that should make Americans realize they don’t understand the economy nearly as much as they need to:
“MF Global Failure Creating Tax Nightmare for Farmers”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46468106
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