Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1304.6 | -6.5 | -0.50% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2410.3 | -31.180 | -1.28% |
| Oil (WTI) | 99.26 | -0.320 | -0.32% |
| LIBOR | 0.5591 | -0.001 | -0.18% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.989 | 0.191 | 0.24% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.05% | 0.00% |
Stocks are lower on brinkmanship over the Greek settlement talks. In spite of Greek worries, EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the banking system that is watched closely by professionals) has been in steady decline for a month now. It is currently 80 basis points lower than its post-crisis peak of 100 basis points in early December.
The Washington Post has an article on the potential robo-signing settlement with the large banks. The size of the settlement is said to be around $25 billion and liberals want it larger. It will supposedly include additional regulations on loan servicers, which could create loads of unintended consequences. Mortgage Servicing Rights are already pretty much worthless, and the big banks are exiting the business. Ocwen is refusing to advance principal and interest payments to bondholders until it recoups its advancements. The administration could end up shooting itself in the foot if it goes overboard with the servicers.
Diamondback is settling with the SEC for $9 million. Diamondback is a $2.5 billion hedge fund in Stamford CT and is run by ex SAC traders. It will be interesting to see if the Feds get info that leads back to Stevie Cohen.
Japan is running a trade deficit? Apparently, yes. Part of it is due to the nuclear disaster and the earthquake, but it is also due to a strong currency and an aging population. Japanese companies are succumbing to the same globalization forces we are and are moving production overseas. The yen has been strengthening for 30 years, bottoming out at 277 in 1982. It is now 77.
No major economic news today. Apple will report after the close.
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
Brent,
As someone new to this blog can I just say how much I appreciate your efforts. What a nice way to start the morning with your concise wrapup of what is happening.
Just wanted to say thanks.
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Thanks, RUK
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After my education by Scott, I’ve also noticed that the LIBOR has been steadily dropping for the last few weeks. Do LIBOR and EURIBOR usually track closely? Or are the member banks separate?
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The correlation between LIBOR and EURIBOR is not static. Over the last 10 years, it has gone from .62 to -.18. So it is all over the map.
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Thanks. With no prior knowledge, I would have guessed they were linked, at least in direction.
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Thanks, Brent.
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Good morning to all. I’m just full of questions for all of you this morning. First the debate…not who won or loss but the “production values”. NBC made a decision to keep the audience from yelling out and responding. Most pundits believe this accrued to the benefit of Romney at the expense of Gingrich who is a master at working a crowd.
Your thoughts? Do you enjoy a quiet dispassionate discussion of issues or do you like the entertainment value that a live raucus crowd provides?
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I prefer Charlie Rose interviews to the presidential debate format.
No matter the forum, WMR cannot do folksy and when he tries to overcome his Kerrygore disease he sounds forced. His sentences trail up in tone toward the end when he is trying too hard as if he were mouthing “I said this folksy comment correctly, right?” He gets tight when he is uncomfortable. He is often uncomfortable.
I wonder how many arm chair cross examiners agree with me, about these observations.
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I agree with all of them Mark, especially Charlie Rose. But I fear we are in the minority in America. I’d much prefer all the candidates do shows like Charlie Rose…many individually and a few as a group..although nine at a time is simply unwieldy in any format IMO.
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My favorite moment was several back when Ron Paul got a show stopping ovation when he talked about “that useless war in Iraq”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjCEOzuhlmE
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I thought I heard that Ford reports earnings tomorrow, is that right? Rumor has it that the numbers are going to be good. Is that what others are hearing? Is good news from the auto industry significant in the grander economic scene or are those days in the past?
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Ford will beneift like GM from the earthquake in Japan and the floods in Thailand.
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I am by no means an MMTer, but this is a pretty good piece about how the Fed’s low interest policy does damage as well as benefit:
“The Fed is Starving Economy of Interest Income”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46115110
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Jim Grant’s The Trouble With Prosperity (one of my all-time favorite books) http://www.amazon.com/Trouble-Prosperity-Speculation-American-Savings/dp/0812924398 talks about the same thing happening in the 1950s. It was a horrible period for insurance companies who couldn’t generate enough yield to cover their future liabilities. I suspect low interest rates are behind the “insolvency” of many pension funds, who have to take down their return assumptions while health care cost inflation continues apace.
The irony of ironies from Grant’s book talks about the generation of investors from the Depression that lost their shirts in real estate and stocks and then piled into “risk free” Treasuries. Because they couldn’t generate enough yield from Treasuries, they levered them and were wiped out again when the bond market crashed in the late 50s. Basically they had a bet that the yield curve would flatten; instead it steepened. How long before there is some ETF that allows investors a “levered bet on Treasuries?” For all I know, one exists already. The baby boom generation seems bent on re-learning the hard lessons from the Jazz Age.
In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical.
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Brent,
I realize I now have an additional resource. Over at PL I always bugged john/banned as my financial guru. I still do and will continue but now I can add you to my list.
For a person basically ignorant of the more arcane aspects of what you two are talking about your final sentence struck such a chord for me. Any lay person reading that line could learn a lot IMO
“In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical.”
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As I have posted before, anybody who thinks the way to get banks to lend more money is to have 30 year mortgages almost equal to last year’s rate of inflation, doesn’t know much about banking!
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An ATIM etiquette question for the regulars.
How important is it to stick to topic? This thread is obviously about “finance”. I do not wish to go OT if it’s considered poor form. Is there generally a somewhat “open” thread during the day?
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What are you some kind of socialist, Kenyan, food stamper? LOL
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We wander, but usually get back to the topic. Late in the day we usually get an open topic from KW – they are very entertaining, often. But if we don’t, someone will commandeer an earlier abandoned thread, usually Brent’s. Or so it seems to me.
No hard rule, but on topic is appreciated in a live thread.
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ruk:
A belated welcome by the way!
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Hey forgot to ask, does this mean I’ve lost my “bodyguard” and have to face the various personal attacks without cover? LOL
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john/banned
Thanks for the welcome! And yes I’m afraid it does mean you’ve lost your bodyguard! LMAO
I still read PL because I like Greg, but I rarely comment, mostly only directly to Greg and to thank newagent for his daily list of war casualties.
And I noticed this morning where once again someone attacked you for no reason. I loved your response about being the partisan alright…but for which side? Perfect! You no longer need me.
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Keep in mind that I believe everyone has the ability to start a new top level post if they so desire.
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In the talks about how corporations are making excessive profits, we have to understand how interest rates complicate this picture. Corporate yields are running ahead of Treasuries and yet at a rate that makes it more profitable for MSFT for instance to borrow to pay it’s yield than to use it’s cash hoard.
That is one sign of a backasswards economy.
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And so john/banned am I misreading you and Brent or do you both think it’s time to start raising interest rates?
BTW Attended a lecture last night delivered by a former Shell Oil President.
Really informative stuff. Some really scary stuff as well. He thinks gas will hit $5 a gallon by this fall. But when he described what a Chinese immigrant, a PhD in Canada who is now a China futurist is saying..China up from 9 million bbl per day currently to 15 million daily in just two years…a 40% increase…and China has already invested 110+ Billion in state owned oil companies in places like Venezuela, Brazil, Ghana and around the world. His point…this is oil already contracted and it will never make it to the open market…what do we suppose that will do to oil prices? Perhaps I’ll share more later when I have time. It was an incredible evening.
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That’s fascinating, RUK.
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This presupposes a Chinese economy continuing with a real GDP growth rate of double figures. Many, including me, doubt that is possible.
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I am also skeptical. IMO we are at the inflection point on the “S” curve for electric cars and natural gas trucks. As the Chinese consumer becomes richer, they will be buying electric, not gas.
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Brent,
You may wish to take a look at my response to MsJS.
Hofmeister agrees with you. And his solution for America is one that encompasses all the energy options..a list of ten that includes the five natural gifts..wind, solar, tidal, geothermal and …oops…read his book lol.
Seriously Brent I think you would enjoy his take. He is a true maverick who respects the EPA but thinks the laws have been implemented horribly. He is for smaller Gov’t…do away with the dozen or so Cabinet level posts, the dozens of Congressional committees each with a chair…But even though he is for smaller gov’t his solution may not please most conservatives.
He is for an energy version of the Fed. A Fed reserve of energy that replaces all the political stuff and has an independent board with long terms and a very specific charter.
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Brent,
Sorry for a sloppy post..Hofmeister wants to do away with the Cabinent levle agencies and Congressional committees dealing with energy,
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Here’s a reasonably easy to comprehend article regarding the latest snag in the Greek debt talks.
http://news.yahoo.com/greece-hopeful-debt-deal-despite-interest-cap-113713237.html
Athens is trying to get its private creditors — banks and other investment firms — to swap their Greek government bonds for new ones with half their face value, thereby slicing some euro100 billion ($130 billion) off its debt. The new bonds would also push the repayment deadlines 20 to 30 years into the future.
However, the main stumbling block over the past few weeks to securing this deal has been the interest rate these new bonds would carry.
…
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who chaired a meeting of finance ministers on efforts to fight the crisis, said the average interest rate over the lifetime of the new Greek bonds must “clearly below 4 percent,” with an average rate of less than 3.5 percent for the period until 2020 — far below the 4 percent demanded by the Institute of International Finance, which has been leading the negotiations for the private bondholders.
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Interesting that the EU officials are already splitting the debt into two categories – old debt to the creditors that could be subject to a default and new debt to the EU institutions that is guaranteed to be paid back. Seems a bit like rolling default.
“The alternative to a voluntary deal would be to force losses on to investors — a move that the eurozone has so far been unwilling to make. Some officials fear that a forced default could trigger panic on financial markets and hurt bigger countries like Italy, Spain or even France.
But several ministers indicated that they might be willing to accept a forced default if it puts Athens in a position where it can eventually repay its remaining debt — including the rescue loans from the eurozone and the IMF. The eurozone has said that Greece’s debt is sustainable if it falls to some 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. Without a restructuring it would reach close to 200 percent by the end of the year.”
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NYT article on the possible mortgage settlement with the banks.
“Political Push Moves a Deal on Mortgages Inches Closer
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and SHAILA DEWAN
Published: January 23, 2012
About one million homeowners facing foreclosure could have their mortgage burden cut by about $20,000 each as part of a long-awaited deal taking shape among state attorneys general, federal officials and the nation’s largest mortgage servicers.
But a final agreement remained out of reach Monday despite political pressure from the White House, which had been trying to have a deal in hand that President Obama could highlight in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.
The housing secretary, Shaun Donovan, met on Monday in Chicago with Democratic attorneys general to iron out the remaining details and to persuade holdouts to agree with any eventual deal. He later held a conference call with Republican attorneys general. But as he renewed his efforts, Democrats in Congress, advocacy groups like MoveOn.org and several crucial attorneys general said the deal might be too lenient on the banks.”
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This is getting done because it’s ahead of a massive push on housing. You couldn’t implement any of the abundant number of general refinancing schemes without a prior MERS settlement. You will next get the Fed buying 800 billion or so MBS and the President proposing one of the refi schemes.
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Surely NOT!
Of course, if it is the FED, it isn’t the govt, right?
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jnc4p shared: About one million homeowners facing foreclosure could have their mortgage burden cut by about $20,000 each
For many, that probably equates to a $100-$150/month reduction. Is that a sufficient amount to make a difference? I’m not sure.
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nope!
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it will piss off a sizable portion of the electorate though, right?
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john/banned said: This presupposes a Chinese economy continuing with a real GDP growth rate of double figures. Many, including me, doubt that is possible.
Then the Chinese will put the excess out onto the open market, or renegotiate the contract terms.
What’s intriguing to me is that they are ramping up big time on a lot of energy fronts. They won’t need them all, even with double-digit growth, but they’ll be in on the supply/technology of nuclear, coal, oil, solar. That will be a plus in the long run, even if growth slows.
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MsJS
While I don’t disagree with john/banned’s observation that the Chinese economy cannot grow at the hyper levels some expect..is there any doubt that they will continue to use an ever increasing supply of energy. They are aware of this and along with the Indians who are in the same boat are doing everything they can to mitigate the circumstance. When you look at their plans for an astounding number of new 20+ story buildings..the incredible number of kilometers being added to their highway system (more cars, buses, trucks and more gas!) even discounting as john/banned IMO correctly suggests only eases the problem in a very small fashion and doesn’t change the ultimate direction.
One thing I learned last night is that the Chinese and Indians are already close to using a new form of nuclear energy. The Chinese have 34 nukes in various stages of the planning stage..we have NONE. The Chinese and Indians are working on Thorium reactors to replace the traditional Uranium.
According to Hofmeister Thorium reactors are the future because they cannot be “weaponized’ and they are far safer.
Hofmeisters basic point is that we have NO energy policy and no plans. He blames both parties btw. His major point..in 1973 we first realized our vulnerability. Richard Nixon promised energy independence by the end of the decade. Seven Presidents later and more than a dozen Congresses we are literally no closer now than we were in “73. We need a plan! One that encompasses 1-10 years…10-25 years and 25-50 years. I love America but the Chinese and Indians HAVE plans.
I won’t go on too much more because I admit last night has me incredibly stimulated. This man is very bright and it’s kind of cool to hear from a man who was a corporate CEO who had dealt with Presidents and Senators. He is a very bright and witty man..like many of our posters here!
For anybody interested his book…
“As president of Shell Oil, John Hofmeister was known for being a straight shooter, willing to challenge his peers throughout the industry. Now, he’s a man on a mission, the founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy, crisscrossing the country in a grassroots campaign to change the way we look at energy in this country. While pundits proffer false new promises of green energy independence, or flatly deny the existence of a problem, Hofmeister offers an insider’s view of what’s behind the energy companies’ posturing, and how politicians use energy misinformation, disinformation, and lack of information to get and stay elected. He tackles the energy controversy head-on, without regard for political correctness. He also provides a new framework for solving difficult problems, identifying solutions that will lead to a future of comfortable lifestyles, affordable and clean energy, environmental protection, and sustained economic competitiveness.
Perhaps even more important…the link to his non profit Citizens for Affordable Energy….
http://www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org/
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The story of the sizing of the stimulus, revisited and revised:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-obama-administration-in-one-memo/2011/08/25/gIQACRZcLQ_blog.html#excerpt
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/01/the-summers-memo.html
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/01/30/120130fa_fact_lizza
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/larry-and-the-invisibles/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/24/jared-bernstein-on-the-summers-memo/
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“Warren Buffett’s secretary to sit with Michelle Obama during State of the Union”
Dumb, dumb, dumb, he may blow this re-election yet.
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banned:
he may blow this re-election yet.
Buffet’s got more to lose associating himself with O than O has to lose associating himself with Buffet.
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You can’t talk about inequality, especially blaming the GOP, by contrasting the millionaire opposition candidate with your billionaire supporter who WANTS to pay more taxes (but in fact does not).
It will make no sense to the general public.
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Agree with Scott re Buffett.
The release of WMR’s tax return[s] on the day of the SOTU presages what the SOTU will emphasize.
The 4th SOTU, when Congress is in the hands of the opposition, is never a blueprint and always a political campaign statement. It actually matters not what BHO says, except about FP.
There is a thorium experimental reactor being built by UTPB, in conjunction with others. These reactors are being pushed in India and Canada, France and China, and if we had an energy policy we would be building prototype reactors in more places then west Texas. There is NO down side. No full scale thoriums are in place yet, anywhere, as far as I know. The French are building some, a VA outfit is working on one, the Canadians are building one in China, and the readiest sources of Thorium are in India and Idaho.
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Mark,
My understanding was that some of the current heavy water and high temperature reactors can be converted to using thorium as a fuel. Is that wrong?
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Yes, Mike, we both read that. I was trying to find it. I think we had a discussion that included BB.
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Mark,
Thanks for your input on the Thorium reactors. Didn’t realize they were being researched in Texas. At least it’s a start.
Some other points made by the former Shell President. It’s time to replace the internal combustion engine! It’s highly inefficient..perhaps a 20% return on the energy used. He joked that when he was President of Shell that was a great thing…we only got 20% bang for our buck, but he still got to keep the entire buck!
He also mentioned hydrogen fuel cell technology which apparently is ready to hit the market in Europe and Japan.
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banned:
It will make no sense to the general public
I think you overestimate the general public. I would venture to guess that the majority of people don’t have a clue who Warren Buffet is. And frankly, anyone who is likely to see O’s association with an uber-rich person as a reason to be skeptical of his inequality demagoguery has plenty of reason to be, and probably is, skeptical already.
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just got this: Adam Rapp, a cancer survivor who would have lost his health insurance if he had not been able to stay on his parent’s insurance policy, will be in Michelle Obama’s box for tonight’s State of the Union.
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Bsimon 5 minute solution to Greek debt problem: EU brokers sale of Greek interest in Cyprus to Turkey for X billion dollars & grants EU membership to Turkey (if they’re still interested).
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bsimon:
Rather Bismarckian of you
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Better Bismarck than Metternich or Richelieu.
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nova:
I long for the days when the SOTU was delivered to congress on a piece of paper reporting, well, the actual state of the union, rather than it being a political pep rally.
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The SOTU needs to be shortened. President comes out, announces: “Well, I’m awesome.” Music plays. Modern Family resumes.
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Scott,
I recall your position from before. I can’t say I disagree with your observation. Certainly in an election year..but given the nature of today’s non stop electioneering there is probably no way to stop it from being a huge campaign commercial even in the off years.
Would you have a problem if Presidents simply delivered their report from the Oval office with no theatrics?
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agreed. and guess who were have to thank. Wilson and FDR. figures.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sou.php#axzz1kPCGRk7w (This changed in 1913. Wilson believed the presidency was more than a impersonal institution; that instead the presidency is dynamic, alive, and personal)
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We seem to have drifted to SOTU and other topics. If I’ve misplaced this next post and it’s too OT please forgive my lack of manners.
There is something that has been nagging at me for awhile now. I wish to toss it out here to see the collection of thoughts this wise group usually provides. Sorry to go long here but IMO this is an important topic that could require a nuanced response.
This could be a sensitive topic but it really needn’t be. Let’s start by saying I’m hoping there’ll be no mention of the “R” word that created “the” thread. Let’s also add that this is not about R’s or D’s but as the Pew poll shows Americans of many ideologies.
This Pew Poll is somewhat dated but the point it makes is the trend line. An ever growing number of Americans believe Obama is a Muslim.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1701/poll-obama-muslim-christian-church-out-of-politics-political-leaders-religious
“Growing Number of Americans Say Obama is a Muslim
Religion, Politics and the President
August 19, 2010
A new national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that nearly one-in-five Americans (18%) now say Obama is a Muslim, up from 11% in March 2009.”
From 1 in ten to 1 in five in a little over a year! Combine this information with the two incidents involving Santorum and Gingrich here in Florida and it just makes me wonder.
Does anybody on this blog believe Obama is a Muslim? I’m not baiting here but simply trying to ascertain what is happening. Politifact (I concede many do not view them as an accurate arbiter) has viewed the claim of Obama as Muslim as a “pants on fire” falsehood.
Again lest any progressive wish to make this fodder for R bashing note the Pew poll shows that there are plenty of I’s and D’s who also believe what many consider to be a ridiculous falsehood.
How do we respond to this? Do we deride those who believe this? No, derision is not kind. How about dismiss them? Are we supposed to respect these “views” if we feel them to be totally false?
How are the R candidates supposed to handle supporters who believe Obama is a Muslim and a foreigner and not our legal President? This has happened to R candidates at least three times that were captured on tape. Their responses…
In what many believe was John McCain’s finest hour, a testament to his innate good character, McCain snatched a microphone from a lady’s hand and corrected her gently but firmly and even added that he believed Obama was a fine family man and that he just disagreed with Obama on the issues.
Yesterday Newt Gingrich handled it as well as perhaps anybody in his position could…he too went to some lengths to point out he felt Obama was a Christian and not a Muslim. But genius on his feet that he is, Newt managed to work in a Reverend Wright mention. No matter what you think of Newt the man, he is as quick and agile on his feet as I’ve seen in Presidential campaigning. He told the truth yet still managed to zing the Prez and please his base. Genius I tells ya!
And then Rick Santorum, who when confronted by a lady who said..paraphrasing now..when are you going to get that illegal Muslim out of the W.H..I won’t even call him President because he’s not…Santorum said he was trying his best to get Obama out of the W.H. smiling at the lady but not correcting the record on the “daily double” the Muslim issue and the birthers.
I am well aware that any comments I make could appear as voyeuristic since I’m not going to vote for an R. But I’m not looking for gossip against the R’s…again refer back to the Pew poll, this ignorance? crosses all party lines.
Why? The media? The internet? Folks like the Sheriff of Charlotte Co. Florida in uniform, an authority figure, introducing Sarah Palin at a rally by referring to then candidate Obama as barrack HUSSEIN obama with the emphasis on HUSSEIN? Perhaps a well known religious figure, the son of Billy Graham pointing out that Islam is passed through the seed of the father? All of the above and more?
Finally…I get the charges of “socialism”. I may not concur with that charge finding it to be hyperbole IMO, but I understand it. And it is a charge about the ISSUES. Big Gov’t versus small and all of that. I simply do not understand where all this “Muslim” stuff is coming from. And of course I agree with Gen Colin Powell…why should it make a difference if he was Muslim?
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As you know, I am the world’s number one hater of polling data, so I think it is the polling itself that’s wrong in this case.
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john/banned
I certainly understand your position on polling and do not disagree. So I will stipulate that the Pew Poll could be flawed.
However is it also your position that an insignificant number of Americans believe Obama is Muslim?
Using this definition to describe “significant”
Statistics . of or pertaining to observations that are unlikely to occur by chance and that therefore indicate a systematic cause.
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I think that people tell things to pollsters for many reason, only some of which are because it is the truth.
Personally I would find it impossible to believe that 1 in 5 Americans believe Obama is a secret Muslim.
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There are lies, damned lies, statistics, poll data, and projections. They are listed in order of their villainous falsity, from least to worst.
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Kevin and again john/banned
Just so I am clear on your positions. Certainly any single survey can be flawed and I agree with all the jokes about statistics and lies. But my post was not so much about this survey. In fact I could line up link after link showing pretty similar results.
The results vary somewhat by state and party but not enough IMO to start slinging mud at each other because as you guys suggest those might be statistical anomalies.
But are you saying that less than 10% of Americans believe Obama is a Muslim?
Are you saying that these incidents out on the campaign trail are outliers and that the people in background cheering these folks on are also a tiny fraction of America?
Not trying to be argumentative and so I ask these questions not incredulously but out of a genuine curiosity.
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Ruk,
I don’t know. If one-in-five Americans believes Obama is a Muslim, what does that mean? Does it mean I believe he wants to destroy America, or do I believe he’s got a Muslim sounding name so that’s probably right, or do I believe it the way I don’t believe he’s stopped smoking or . . .
And do I believe it like I believe my opinion is important and must be shared, or do I believe it like I believe green tea is good for you?
Adam Curry and John C. Dvorak advance the opinion on No Agenda that there are two Obamas, probably twins, so one could be a Muslim and one could be a Christian or agnostic. I mean, let’s consider all the possibilities here.
I suspect the numbers are not meaningful, and indicate more that that’s how those people chose to answer the poll, for whatever reason, probably a generalized dissatisfaction with the sitting president. I’m not that concerned, and it won’t significantly impact the election. But just remember that when we refer to the wisdom of the American people, we mean the collective wisdom, not necessarily the wisdom of ten percent of poll respondents.
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It’s only my opinion, but except for the low IQ group, nobobdy thinks he’s Muslim.
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Kevin,
Thanks for your thoughts. You and john/banned have brought me over to the side that we’re talking about a “fringe” element who believe the Muslim stuff.
The “twins” story is a hoot. But why not really make people paranoid…he’s triplets!
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Is a Muslim president a bad thing? 😉
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Well, if it was Obama, and he lied about his religion, it might be a sign of something worrisome.
However, I strongly suspect Obama is irreligious.
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One of the trainers at the Y gym where I work out [NW Y on McNeil, mcurtis] told me BHO is a Muslim. I said, “So what?”, smiling. She said, “I’m a Christian!” I said, “See, it didn’t make any difference. We have a Muslim President and you’re still a Christian!” She laughed, but was very confused.
I don’t think this is high on the list of misconceptions some people have. That trainer is the only person I know who has that belief. Another day, another poll.
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“However, I strongly suspect Obama is irreligious.”
You and Bill Maher Kevin. And you know what…I’m just as suspicious as you.
Mark
Great story and well played!
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Mark–
She wasn’t blonde by any chance, was she??
(*ducking to avoid lms*)
🙂
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I’m of the same opinion about polls. They are daily if not by-the-minute. They have too much influence as well. The Mark Twain point is well received by me. (A lot of Twain quotes work for me.)
Your point, Mark, to the trainer is right on. Don’t hurt people’s brains.
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Kevin, I don’t know what Obama is as far as the seriousness of his religion. Jefferson was not all that much of a christian. Tell you guys what. That another hot-box for me . . . religion. I’ll be totally silent if that topic comes up.
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Jefferson was a diest (to my knowledge, mostly gleaned from many listenings to The Thomas Jefferson Hour) and did not, it is almost certain, believe in the divinity of Christ. Thus why he authored the Jefferson Bible, consisting of many of the parables and sermons of Christ, without the miracles.
I’m not worried about the level of Obama’s religiosity.
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A strictly technical question about blog mechanics. I typed that last post in MS Word so as to give it more thought and make sure I said what I “intended” to say.
When I cut and paste it condensed all of the formatting. In addition I find I am unable to go back to view what I have typed once in the box..whether cut and pasted or typed right into the box because of the lack of a scrolling device.
I readily confess I am no technological whiz…I wouldn’t call myself a Luddite because I’m not against technology…just not a real geek. Any help is appreciated.
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The losses come from the transition from Word (has a lot of hidden formatting codes) to text. that’s where all that Word stuff is lost. So use notepad or create a rich text document in word. That might work better.
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Thanks for that suggestion mcurtis I’ll switch from Word to notepad.
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The other thing you can do, ruk, is to post your comment and then, if it doesn’t look right, click on the “Edit Comment” link at the top of the box (just to the left of your avatar). That opens up an editing box with all kinds of buttons and gadgets to make it look beautiful. 🙂
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Thanks for that tip Mich…alas I’m such a dullard I’m not even sure how to load an avatar..and I do not see that “edit” feature.
Another strange phenomenon, right now as I view your message I do not see your avatar but rather a symbol..but if I run the cursor or carat or whatever you call it..lol…then your pooch comes up. What’s his or her name? And why can’t I see him/her condensed.
So much to learn…first I’m concentrating on manners 🙂 Then it’ll be on to mastering technology!
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Well, now that you mention it, ruk, if you go up and click on the FAQ tab at the top #2 will tell you how to change your avatar (don’t feel bad, they just got posted yesterday).
But this other phenomenon that you’re describing is a new one on me! Anybody else having a problem seeing avatars?
And that’s my little Daisy; I’ll tell her you said hello!
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Michi, I don’t think you can edit comments unless you’re an editor/administrator. I’ve gone in without privileges as a commenter and see something different. Not sure about the avatar though.
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Michi
Give Daisy a bark back for me. I’ll go to the FAQ’s and continue the learning experience. Thanks.
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lms:
I don’t think you can edit comments unless you’re an editor/administrator
Hmmmmmm; ruk, let me know if you can edit your comment, OK?
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Michi
Not yet and I’m struggling with the avatar as well. No biggie about the avatar but I would like to learn how to make the posts look better and be able to scroll back and see what I’ve written and proof read. I don’t mind working in notepad for that though.
I was reading all your FAQ’s and probably should have done that first eh…but I’m a guy and what guy reads directions? 🙂
It was the first I have learned about “nested” comments. I see others doing lots of nested comments but I notice Scott prefers the convention you describe with the bold. I view Scott as THE alpha poster and I say that sincerely and without snark..sorry Kevin..lol…Whatever I just wish to go along to get along.
BUT…I’m not sure how to bold and if it requires all those old MS DOS type commands…I’m afraid I won’t be a very bold dude.
BTW I’m curious…do Apple products also use keyboard commands along with the mouse. I HATE that MS products still use the old keyboard commands. Sometimes I can be racing along..typing at a furious pace..and fat fingers hit a control or alt key and everything goes crazy. You’d think, and perhaps there is and I’m just ignorant, there’d be away to disable the keyboard commands. I had to learn how to use my overstrike icon at the bottom of MSWord the hard way one day when fat fingers somehow combined to create the keystrokes that turned it on without my desire. It was a real WTF moment for me. I absolutely loathe the old MS DOS keyboard commands!
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michi I left you a note on the FAQ page
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Perhaps my problem is that I’m not even sure if I’m using ‘WordPress” I simply go to the comment box and type the required email address and name and I’m off to the races.
Lately I notice that facebook, I have an account, I only visit once a week or so to keep up with family, somehow interfaces with Yahoo and perhaps even chrome…It always frightens me a bit when one site automatically knows I’m signed in on another.
Since i see there ubiquitous icon here is that simply a shortcut for folks who wish to go there?
Perhaps I need to establish a wordpress account..whatever that takes to facilitate what we’re discussing.
Like I said I’m no techie!
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lms–just got back and saw your note on the FAQ. Thanks!
ruk–lms is right–you won’t be able to edit your comments on the blog itself (bummer!), my bad.
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Interesting POV from Diana Olick:
“State of the Union Preview: Housing and Fairness Don’t Connect ”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46117371
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john/banned
Isn’t the entire question about the housing crisis and it’s effect on average Americans too complicated and too tough to solve with simple answers.
Given the dysfunction in our Government right now I’m not sure what the answer is…just keep pretending and extending perhaps…nobody wants to face the music and of course there is always the question of just WHO is going to pay the piper.
Any ideas?
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“Any ideas?”
Bankruptcy cramdown. Fix the problems one at a time in a neutral forum where creditor and debtor rights are balanced based on the law, not a predetermined one size fits all bailout designed primarily to serve a political purpose.
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jnc
Thanks for the idea. Is this actually feasible? Would it not clog up court dockets or are you thinking of special courts set up to expedite the process? I certainly acknowledge “one size fits all” programs are usually not the best.
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There’s no such thing as too complicated to be solved in a politicians’ speech, only in the real world.
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The bankruptcy system already exists and faced a pretty big volume back in 2005 when they changed the law. The big advantage of utilizing the bankruptcy system is that the mortgage debt is dealt with in the context of the debtors other obligations such as credit card debt, rather than in isolation. It also helps to incentivize the banks to properly value property used as collateral in the first place, rather than inflate the value to justify the loan to value ratio.
Lastly it helps to provide a disincentive to help minimize the number of bad actors who would otherwise game the system. It’s not a perfect solution, but it’s better than a blanket refinancing of everyone.
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The Washington Post is hiring technical people to fix their web site:
“Are you a politics-obsessed software developer? A journalism-loving mobile-interface genius? Then The Washington Post wants you!
Posted by Ezra Klein at 03:01 PM ET, 01/24/2012 ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/are-you-a-politics-obsessed-software-developer-a-journalism-loving-mobile-interface-genius-then-the-washington-post-wants-you/2011/08/25/gIQAXVW6NQ_blog.html?wprss=ezra-klein
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Wow who could have seen that coming? snark alert
I genuinely feel sorry for Greg. I think he makes an honest effort and does a good job. But he is obviously depressed by his drop in comments. For him to say his comments numbers have collapsed as fast as Romney’s poll numbers was just sad. But then I’m a fan of Greg and I realize there are plenty here who do not share that opinion.
They have more than technical problems over there IMHO. But aside from a heavily moderated blog like this one I’m not sure what the answer is. I do know during the time we used Kevin’s troll blocker I was not tossing out intemperate comments. Kevin’s little invention was genius and I enjoyed the feature of being able to block or unblock at the click of my mouse. I’m not saying that giving people “ignore” buttons is as good as a blog like this one, but then this is a grass roots effort that runs by consensus…WaPo is open to every loon who hits the internet…and boy are there some interesting folks out there. I don’t mind reading their comments occasionally but I really appreciate this “safe haven”.
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I like Greg, but the comments section there is unmanageable for technical and other reasons. I still mean to get over there to read the posts, but I do so less and less.
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Just popped by Plum Line. Displaying on 4 main comments at a time, then going to load more . . . We can debate the pros and cons of nested comments all day, but if they come at the expense of being able to display a whole thread at once, then that needs to go. The previous system was superior to what they have now.
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I am relentless in pointing out the problems with the WaPo site. The talent pay for the sins of the incompetence of the back end. I only hope that if I slam them often enough the message may eventually trickle up to a management level with check-writing privileges. The slowness and error prone-ness of that site should be an embarrassment but nobody seems to care.
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yello: Those at WaPo with check-writing privileges know. The want ads are their response.
Alas, none of these advertised positions is at a level to do anything other than what it is told. I don’t expect any significant changes in the next six months, probably longer.
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System Architect sounds like the only person with any genuine authority. The rest are just more bodies on the galley slave deck. Any improvement in performance at all would be a welcome relief.
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You have no idea how good it feels to be able to edit a comment. This WordPress stuff is growing on me.
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ruk:
but given the nature of today’s non stop electioneering there is probably no way to stop it from being a huge campaign commercial even in the off years.
Stop broadcasting it.
Would you have a problem if Presidents simply delivered their report from the Oval office with no theatrics?
Less of one, for sure.
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Regarding bringing Buffet’s secretary to the SOTU, somebody help me out on this. If you were a reporter tomorrow, wouldn’t you ask her first thing how much does she actually make? Either she would turn out to be a 1%er herself, or Buffet is an incredibly stingy man.
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http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/09/who_is_warren_buffetts_secretary.html
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I’m no tax guy, but if he has been giving her Berkshire shares for 20+ years, she makes a helluva lot more in dividends than she does in salary. which if true is miserly in the extreme, almost Bob Cratchit like
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John, I used to own B-H. It pays NO dividends.
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I did not own very much of B-H, of course. Bought in ’94 sold in ’98 but should have kept it.
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Kevin:
Well, if it was Obama, and he lied about his religion, it might be a sign of something worrisome. However, I strongly suspect Obama is irreligious.
Which is to say, he lied about his religion.
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Yup.
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I’m a Catholic and I haven’t been in a church in several years. If someone calls themselves a Christian, who is to dispute it? The bar to entry is pretty low.
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Yello, there’s someone to dispute everything.
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***smile***
It’s not my job to look into someone’s heart. I would think we were well beyond heresy being a punishable offense.
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I dispute that. 😛
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I think this gets into the weakness of how people relate to the religious test clause. The battles within the state of MA, which was the last state to disestablish, are very interesting.
People were taxed for hte biggest church in town. Usually Congregationalist. The Baptists really fought it. So it was allowed to have your taxes go to the Baptist Church as long as you proved your attendence.
Athiest were really stuck for to admit such an opinion would hurt them financially and they had to prove going to church.
I do not blame politicians for being less than honest about their religious furver(sp?) or thoughts.
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I’ve given up on the Kenyan/Muslim/Socialist thing. It’s pretty much established that 20% of everybody (present company excluded) is an idiot and will believe anything. I see the percentage rise and fall in the Muslim belief as a proxy for dissatisfaction with his presidency and not much more.
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yello:
If someone calls themselves a Christian, who is to dispute it?
If I call a tail a leg, who is to dispute it?
Being a Christian means accepting certain core Christian beliefs. if one does not accept those core beliefs, then one is not a Christian, no matter what one calls oneself.
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Being a Christian is so diverse that pretty much the only common core belief is in the divinity of Jesus Christ and there are Unitarian Universalists who will give you an argument over that. You can say someone isn’t your variety of Christian, but to disallow their self-identification takes a certain level of hubris.
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I think that description is accepting certain core beliefs. Certainly, an atheist can call themselves a Christian, but if they don’t believe in God, then that’s not really accurate. 😉
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But unless they admit to not believing in God, what is there to dispute? Even among agnostics there is Pascal’s Wager.
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Well, they ain’t Baptists, and that’s for certain. 😉
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Which is to say, he lied about his religion.
Would you have won if he said he was non-religious?
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Guys, I used to be in a downtown business group that consisted mainly of lawyers, bankers, and brokers. One Wednesday we had a Rabbi, a Methodist minister, and the RC Bishop as guests.
The question came from the floor and I paraphrase: Who would you rather have in your congregation, one who came for fellowship and community or one who came for spiritual sustenance?
Bishop McCarthy said, and I paraphrase: I’ll take ’em for any reason at all.
The other two agreed.
Coming from a religious background that stresses works over faith, I believe that even the atheist who practices the golden rule [KW – don’t go there!] is doing God’s intended work on earth and is thus among the faithful and I never question the level of spirituality involved. In fact, in an Adjunct to the Golden Rule, I think everyone has just the right amount of spirituality as long as they think I do, too.
…
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Mark
Great post. I’ve been everything..raised Catholic, 8 years with the nuns, went into the Army as an Agnostic, got out and tried to rediscover Christianity, tried Methodist, Baptist, and Presbyterian for a couple of years each. I suspect I felt most comfortable in the Methodist church but none of it really worked for me. However I can easily see how it works for others and so I do not judge. I’m closest to a Zen Buddhist at this point.
But my moral compass though all of this faith exploration has been the Golden Rule. I think it takes care of everything.
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ashot:
Would you have won if he said he was non-religious?
Won what?
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yello:
Being a Christian is so diverse that pretty much the only common core belief is in the divinity of Jesus Christ.
Really? A belief in one God is not a core belief of Christianity? A belief in the Holy Trinity is not a core belief? A belief in the virgin birth of Christ is not a core belief? A belief that the Bible is the word of God is not a core belief?
I suppose you might find some people somewhere who reject some or all of these beliefs and still call themselves Christians. But the identifier “Christian” is not empty of content.
I could, I suppose, self-identify as a progressive, an identifier that has even less definition than Christianity. But if I did, knowing what you know about my politics, it wouldn’t be hubris on your part to reject my self-identification out of hand. It would be sensible.
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I think what yello is trying to get at, Scott, is that there is a set of core beliefs–many of which you have detailed–that are generally commonly held by Christians. But each one of the specific ones that you state is modified in one way or another by at least one Christian sect, while the common denominator is Christ and His divinity.
Back in my Campus Crusade days, when we were melding a group together with people from all different brands of Christianity, the only requirement for calling oneself a Christian was a belief that Christ was your personal Savior and the rest was the stuff we agreed to not argue about. But that’s my n of 1.
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Theology is one of my weak points. I was raised in the post-Vatican II Catholic Church and while I own the Baltimore Catechism I have never read it, let alone committed it to memory. I haven’t even read the New Testament or any individual gospel straight through in linear narrative form. But I still consider myself a nominal Christian.
The one significant factor which separates Christianity from Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism or any of a wide variety of other faiths is the divinity of Jesus Christ. For example, Muslims revere Jesus as a prophet but not as the Son of God. They are clearly not Christians. So, yes, divinity of Jesus is a sufficient distinguisher. All the other dogmas you mention are offshoots of that premise. Once you accept that Jesus was sent by God for man’s salvation, the rest falls in place for the most part. And Christians are nothing if not prone to schisms over the finer points of the articles of faith.
Many agnostics and atheists (or at least those who admit the existence of a historical Jesus) will express admiration for His teachings but reject the idea that He is a supernatural being. Those people I would not call Christian. Again, it’s a pretty wide net but a distinct divide.
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Semi-corked by Michigoose. I agree with her formulation as well.
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ScottC: A belief in the Holy Trinity is not a core belief?
Is it? There are still Unitarians?
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mcurtis:
Is it?
Isn’t it?
There are still Unitarians?
Are Unitarians Christians? There is plenty of debate about that.
I realize there is no ultimate authority to define the essential beliefs of Christianity, and therefore there is no way to settle the dispute. My only point was that, as I mentioned, the descriptor “Christian”, like many other descriptors, is not empty of content, as yello seems to suggest.
To say that we should accept anyone who self-describes themselves as X as being X because of the self-description is to render X meaningless.
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I believe they are Christians.
I was seeing how you would respond. I am not one to negate a group based upon their interpretations of the Torah nor the “New Testament.” The attempts to unify believers at the start was a fight over the trinity. Also a fight over was Jesus a God? Was he human and a God? Was he a human acting with God’s favor? So then those who didn’t go along with the edict were heretics like the Gnostics.
Would you say that Jefferson was a Christian?
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Jefferson was a diest. He believed in a Creator that created the universe, and, like a sculptor who had finished a great work of art, left it to speak for itself. That is my understanding, at least.
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I went to a Unitarian church as a child, and I’d say that most of them, individually, that I knew–including the pastor–where Christians, in the sense that they believed in the divinity of Christ. However, belief in such divinity is not, as a I understand it, a litmus test for being a Unitarian. But I’m not sure it’s really a litmus test in the present day for Methodists or Presbyterians (Lutherans I don’t know about). I’m pretty sure it’s not for Episcopalians. However, Mormons believe in the divinity of Christ, so, by that definition alone, Mormons are Christians.
I tend to accept anyone who describes themselves as X as being X unless their own subsequent self-description contradicts it. I’m a Christian, but Christ was just a nice man, not the son of God, is not a coherent assertion. If you tell me you’re a Christian I’m going to assume you are unless you later contradict that in a meaningful way.
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You and I are basically in agreement on this, Kevin. The details of all this history is pretty depressing however.
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As I understand Unitarianism (which is mostly through the works of noted atheist and former Unitarian Kurt Vonnegut) there are branches which do not believe in the divinity of Jesus or even in a God. Some Unitarian Universalists are described as atheists who like to have something to do on Sunday mornings. But this is at the very fringe.
By my definition, Mormons are Christians despite the many Christians who feel otherwise.
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Yello: This is true as well. The church in some churches is pretty “new age.” Yet, we have battles in MA as late as 1839(?) between the two that forced the State to disestablish.
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http://groups.google.com/group/alt.politics.democrats.d/browse_thread/thread/76f8bed3e2f71faa/02b1b0907237ea0d?lnk=gst&q=buckeye+Jefferson+bible#02b1b0907237ea0d
I had to verify an old memory from another person, but thhis is very accurate.
Somewhat as a result of the campaign waged against him during the 1800 presidential campaign by many of the New England establishment and clergy Jefferson took a new look at Christianity
Three things resulted from that
(1) In April 1803 Jefferson WROTE an outline which he titled:
*** Syllabus of an Estimate of the Merit of the Doctrines of Jesus,
compared with those of others*** and he sent a copy of this syllabus to Dr. Ben Rush on April 21, 1800, his two daughters, Levi Lincoln, possibly a couple other close friends and Joseph Priestly.
The Syllabus was approx 4 pages long.
——– ——— ——– ——–
(2) In 1804 Jefferson COMPILED his “wee little book” which he titled
***The Philosophy of Jesus of Nazareth, Extracted from the account of his
life and doctrines as given by Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John. Being an
abridgement of the New testament for the use of the Indians unembarrassed
with matters of fact or faith beyond their comprehensions.***
The Philosophy was 46 pages long. It consisted of sections cut from the
various Gospels of two Bibles and then glued to blank paper.
This particular creation was not done in four languages.
———- ——– ——– ———
(3) Sometime after 1816, probably nearer to 1820 Jefferson COMPILED what he titled
***The life and Morals of Jesus of Nazareth extracted textually from the
Gospels in Greek, Latin, French & English.***
This creation was approx 100 pages or so long. This version was similar to the earlier version, but did have some different extracts added to it and some that appeared only in it. In addition, it was done in the four
languages.
No one knew Jefferson had created this so called “Bible” until after his
death. He told no one about it, not even members of his family. This
version was bound in leather with gold lettering. It was discovered in his
library after his death.
—— ——- ——- ——- ——- —-
In 1816 Jefferson gave Van der Kemp permission to publish in England the “Syllabus” and the accompanying 21 April 1803 letter to Benjamin Rush, subject to the stipulation that the authorship of both documents be
concealed.
NOTE: it was the 4 page SYLLABUS that was published, not the 46 page
Philosophy or the 100 or so page “Gospels, which hadn’t been created yet.
Despite all of Jefferson’s efforts, Van der Kemp bitterly disappointed his
expectations. He did arrange for the publication of the “Syllabus” and the
letter to Rush, both suitably altered to conceal the identity of their
author, in the October 1816 issue of the Monthly Repository of Theology and General Literature, an English Unitarian periodical. Contrary to
Jefferson’s hopes, however, they failed to elicit any comment in England,
——- ———- ——– ——– ——-
TO SUM UP
The SYLLABUS was published as part of Rush’s letter in this country in the 4 volume set of books compiled by Thomas Jefferson Randolph, titled The Memoirs, Correspondence and Micellanies from the papers of Thomas Jefferson, which were published in 1829.
—— —— —— —— —–
The SYLLABUS (as u can see above) is what Jefferson actually WROTE in 1803
and is only a very short outline
It was this that was published in Europe in 1816 by Van der Kemp, with
Jefferson’s permission.
The PHILOSOPHY, which Jefferson compiled in 1804 is not something Jefferson actually wrote, but is 46 pages of sections that he cut out of two Bibles and glued on blank pieces of paper.
This was in two columns per page and was not done in four languages.
Which Jefferson did give permission to van der Kemp to publish this as
well, but neither Van der Kemp, nor anyone else ever published it.
It still existed in 1826 but sometime between then and the 1850s the
original disappeared.
In 1983 Dickson W. Adams published a reconstructed version in his book
Jefferson’s Extracts from the Gospels [based on the historical data that is available, most feel that the reconstruction, while not perfect perhaps, is probably pretty accurate.]
Sometime between 1816 and 1820, with the weight of evidence now pointing to around the 1820 time period Jefferson compiled the MORALS. It was this particular item that is known as the Jefferson Bible, and it was this that
was done in four languages, not the PHILOSOPHY. Again, it was not something Jefferson actually wrote, but instead was clippings of passages from Bibles, in English, Latin, Greek, and French.
[ . . .]
The SYLLABUS was published in 1816 (written 1803)
The PHILOSOPHY (original version) was never published. (compiled 1804) The reconstructed version was published in 1983
The LIFE AND MORALS (Gospels) was first published in the 1902-1904 time frame. (compiled around 1820)
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mcurtis:
Would you say that Jefferson was a Christian?
Like Kevin, I have always thought he was a Deist.
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My memory recalled this and I wanted to find it.
I am a Christian, in the only sense he wished any one to be; sincerely attached to his doctrines, in preference to all others; ascribing to himself every human excellence; & believing he never claimed any other.–Letter to Benjamin Rush (12 April 1803)
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Didn’t Jefferson famously have a highly redacted Bible with only the parts he believed in left in?
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The Jefferson Bible. It was pretty much everything in the Gospels that did not involve miracles (unless the “miracle” was in a parable).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_Bible
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Kevin:
unless you later contradict that in a meaningful way.
Which is, necessarily, to say that there is some objective measure by which the claim can be assessed.
My original aim above was not so much to get into the weeds of what makes a Christian a Christian, but to counter the notion that a self-description cannot be reasonably disputed. If I am reading you correctly, Kevin, we seem to agree.
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Kevin and yello:
Mormons believe in the divinity of Christ, so, by that definition alone, Mormons are Christians.
It is actually a very nuanced view. Mormon theology is that Christ is the Son of God who was born a human and became divine in the same way that all men who are faithful and follow the teachings of the LDS church will become divine in their own right one day.
That, obviously, is a vast simplification of LDS doctrine, but it’s the root of the schism that they’ve had with some other churches (Catholic and Southern Baptist come to mind immediately, but I think that the Lutherans may still be in this group) about who is or is not Christian.
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I did not know that. I had always been led to believe that they agreed with the New Testament as amended by the Book Of Mormon. But then most of my knowledge of Mormonism comes from awkward lunchtime conversations with coworkers and the collected works of Parker and Stone.
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An excellent show, BTW!
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yello:
I had always been led to believe that they agreed with the New Testament as amended by the Book Of Mormon.
Both Old and New Testaments, and the Book of Mormon and Doctrine and Covenants (the latter written by Joseph Smith with Divine assistance). I’ve learned a LOT about the Church after having lived here for almost 16 years now. When you start digging down into specific beliefs, that are not supposed to be discussed outside the Temple, there are some pretty radical ones. . . but then transubstantiation strikes me as pretty radical–not having been raised as a Catholic. There are some very deep doctrinal divides and occasionally they flare up, but right now everybody seems to be making nice.
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Transubstantiation is downright creepy and I say that as a Catholic. Everybody’s Magic Sky Man looks ridiculous from the outside.
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Don’t get me started on The Invention of Lying . . .
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