Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1294.5 | 6.3 | 0.49% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2371.5 | 31.960 | 1.37% |
| Oil (WTI) | 101.97 | 1.100 | 1.09% |
| LIBOR | 0.5715 | -0.005 | -0.87% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.118 | -0.140 | -0.17% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.92% | 0.01% |
Markets are slightly positive this morning as good news out of Europe is offset by disappointing economic numbers out of the US. Spain and Italy had good debt auctions, which is pulling down sovereign yields across the board. The ECB held rates at 1% and noted “tentative signs of stabilization” in Europe.
Initial Jobless claims for the week ending 1/7 were 399k, versus 375k expected. Continuing claims were higher as well. Retail Sales for December were flat ex autos. November numbers were revised upwards. Given the comp numbers reported last week, I would not be surprised to see upward revisions. It feels like an outlier.
Regarding the jobs numbers, an interesting dynamic will be playing out in the unemployment numbers. Workers who have been unemployed for over 6 months are considered “discouraged workers” and do not count in the unemployment numbers. As the economy improves, those workers will start looking for work again and should be counted as “unemployed” This should add upward pressure to the unemployment numbers. But, with an election coming up, the Labor Department will want to understate this phenomenon as much as possible. So I would take any unemployment numbers with a grain of salt, if you don’t already.
The winter that never was (it is 40 degrees and rainy this morning in the Northeast) is wreaking havoc on natural gas prices. While WTI continues to hang around $100, gas is now down to $2.71. Natural gas bulls are being taken to the woodshed, and is approaching the 2009 lows of $2.51. It will be interesting to see if someone ends up getting carried out on a gas bet.
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
Worry not. Winter has arrived here (MN) with temps in the teens & a forecast for low single digits overnight. That would be normal, which January thus far has not been (50s earlier this week).
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We have actual clouds for the first time in a month. Unfortunately, the winds are supposed to return tonight and scare them away.Brent, what do you think the chances are of Congress extending unemployment benefits when the two month extension expires?
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@lms. No idea about the unemployment extension. It is in the interest of both parties to get it done, so I imagine they'll figure out a way to do it.
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Thanks Brent, I just wondered if there is enough "good" news that they might drop the extensions this time around. BTW, what do you think of the various commenting options? You have a blogger site also don't you?
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"Brent, what do you think the chances are of Congress extending unemployment benefits when the two month extension expires?"By unemployment extension, I presume you mean keeping the extended benefits at their current level, not extending it past 99 weeks?
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jncYes, I don't think anyone imagines extending it past 99 weeks is possible. I just think it gets more difficult, and maybe it should, to keep the 99 weeks in there if the economy is indeed improving. I'm just wondering what the threshold might be for unwinding the extension.
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lms, not many people comment on my site, so i don't really have an opinion of the new commenting system. i'm happy with whatever people decide to do. i'll adapt.
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